• Title/Summary/Keyword: Risk Analysis Model

Search Result 2,730, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Association of DR4 (TRAIL-R1) Polymorphisms with Cancer Risk in Caucasians: an Updated Meta-analysis

  • Chen, Wei;Tang, Wen-Ru;Zhang, Ming;Chang, Kwenjen;Wei, Yun-Lin
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.6
    • /
    • pp.2889-2892
    • /
    • 2014
  • Death receptor 4 (TRAIL-R1 or DR4) polymorphisms have been associated with cancer risk, but findings have been inconsistent. To estimate the relationship in detail, a meta-analysis was here performed. A search of PubMed was conducted to investigate the association between DR4 C626G, A683C and A1322G polymorphisms and cancer risk, using odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals. The results suggested that DR4 C626G and A683C polymorphisms were indeed associated with cancer risk (for C626G, dominant model, OR 0.991, 95%CI 0.866-1.133, p=0.015; for A683C, additive model, OR=1.140, 95%CI: 0.948-1.370, p=0.028; dominant model, OR=1.156, 95%CI: 0.950-1.406, p=0.080) in the Caucasian subgroup. However, the association was not significant between DR4 polymorphism A1322G with cancer risk in Caucasians (For A1322G, additive model: OR 1.085, 95%CI 0.931-1.289, p=0.217; dominant model: OR 1.379, 95%CI 0.934-2.035, p=0.311; recessive model: OR 1.026, 95%CI 0.831-1.268 p=0.429.). In summary, our finding suggests that DR4 polymorphism C626G and A683 rather than A1322G are associated with cancer risk in Caucasians.

A Study on the Evaluation of Value for Money in Private Provided Infrastructure with a Focus on BTO Projects (BTO 민간투자사업의 화폐적 투자가치 평가)

  • Baek, Seong-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
    • /
    • v.25 no.1 s.94
    • /
    • pp.49-59
    • /
    • 2007
  • This study has examined the allocation of risk in Korea's private provided Infrastructure(PPI) with the following contents (1) Developing a quantitative risk allocation model for Korea's PPI and (2) examining the implication of changes in the minimum revenue guarantees (MRG) clause of government legislation using the developed empirical model. The model of this study adopts and extends H. Yamaguchi's model developed in 2002. To investigate Korea's actual risk allocation deals, the author incorporated the MRG framework. The payment related to the MRG is indeterminable. Hence. the average MRG rate was calculated using probabilistic risk analysis. The risk allocation model is applied to the two eases to validate the model and evaluate the project's VFM(Value for Money). As the revenue guarantee rate is lowered, the government subsidies are increased. This in turn worsens VFM. The same relationship is true when the revenue guarantee Period is shortened.

Construction of a Novel Mitochondria-Associated Gene Model for Assessing ESCC Immune Microenvironment and Predicting Survival

  • Xiu Wang;Zhenhu Zhang;Yamin Shi;Wenjuan Zhang;Chongyi Su;Dong Wang
    • Journal of Microbiology and Biotechnology
    • /
    • v.34 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1164-1177
    • /
    • 2024
  • Esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is among the most common malignant tumors of the digestive tract, with the sixth highest fatality rate worldwide. The ESCC-related dataset, GSE20347, was downloaded from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database, and weighted gene co-expression network analysis was performed to identify genes that are highly correlated with ESCC. A total of 91 transcriptome expression profiles and their corresponding clinical information were obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas database. A mitochondria-associated risk (MAR) model was constructed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression analysis and validated using GSE161533. The tumor microenvironment and drug sensitivity were explored using the MAR model. Finally, in vitro experiments were performed to analyze the effects of hub genes on the proliferation and invasion abilities of ESCC cells. To confirm the predictive ability of the MAR model, we constructed a prognostic model and assessed its predictive accuracy. The MAR model revealed substantial differences in immune infiltration and tumor microenvironment characteristics between high- and low-risk populations and a substantial correlation between the risk scores and some common immunological checkpoints. AZD1332 and AZD7762 were more effective for patients in the low-risk group, whereas Entinostat, Nilotinib, Ruxolutinib, and Wnt.c59 were more effective for patients in the high-risk group. Knockdown of TYMS significantly inhibited the proliferation and invasive ability of ESCC cells in vitro. Overall, our MAR model provides stable and reliable results and may be used as a prognostic biomarker for personalized treatment of patients with ESCC.

Application of Probabilistic Health Risk Analysis in Life Cycle Assessment -Part I : A General Framework for Uncertainty and Variability Analysis of Health Risk in Life Cycle Assessment (전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 건강영향분석기법 적용 -Part I : 전과정평가에 있어 확률론적 위해도 분석기법 적용방안에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kwang-Soo;Park, Jae-Sung
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.9 no.3
    • /
    • pp.185-202
    • /
    • 2000
  • Uncertainty and variability in Life Cycle Assessment(LCA) have been significant key issues in LCA methodology with techniques in other research area such as social and political science. Variability is understood as stemming from inherent variations in the real world, while uncertainty comes from inaccurate measurements, lack of data, model assumptions, etc. Related articles in this issues were reviewed for classification, distinguish and elaboration of probabilistic/stochastic health risk analysis application in LCA. Concept of focal zone, streamlining technique, scenario modelling and Monte Carlo/Latin Hypercube risk analysis were applied to the uncertainty/variability analysis of health risk in LCA. These results show that this general framework of multi-disciplinary methodology between probabilistic health risk assessment and LCA was of benefit to decision making process by suppling information about input/output data sensitivity, health effect priority and health risk distribution. There should be further research needs for case study using this methodology.

  • PDF

Lack of Associations of the COMT Val158Met Polymorphism with Risk of Endometrial and Ovarian Cancer: a Pooled Analysis of Case-control Studies

  • Liu, Jin-Xin;Luo, Rong-Cheng;Li, Rong;Li, Xia;Guo, Yu-Wu;Ding, Da-Peng;Chen, Yi-Zhi
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
    • /
    • v.15 no.15
    • /
    • pp.6181-6186
    • /
    • 2014
  • This meta-analysis was conducted to examine whether the genotype status of Val158Met polymorphism in catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) is associated with endometrial and ovarian cancer risk. Eligible studies were identified by searching several databases for relevant reports published before January 1, 2014. Pooled odds ratios (ORs) were appropriately derived from fixed-effects or random-effects models. In total, 15 studies (1,293 cases and 2,647 controls for ovarian cancer and 2,174 cases and 2,699 controls for endometrial cancer) were included in the present meta-analysis. When all studies were pooled into the meta-analysis, there was no evidence for significant association between COMT Val158Met polymorphism and ovarian cancer risk (Val/Met versus Val/Val: OR=0.91, 95% CI=0.76-1.08; Met/Met versus Val/Val: OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.73-1.10; dominant model: OR=0.90, 95% CI=0.77-1.06; recessive model: OR=0.95, 95% CI=0.80-1.13). Similarly, no associations were found in all comparisons for endometrial cancer (Val/Met versus Val/Val: OR 0.97, 95% CI=0.77-1.21; Met/Met versus Val/Val: OR=1.02, 95% CI=0.73-1.42; dominant model: OR=0.98, 95% CI=0.77-1.25; recessive model: OR=1.02, 95% CI=0.87-1.20). In the subgroup analyses by source of control and ethnicity, no significant associations were found in any subgroup of population. This meta-analysis strongly suggests that COMT Val158Met polymorphism is not associated with increased endometrial and ovarian cancer risk.

A Study on the Maintenance Cost Estimation Model for Application Software by Considering Risks (위험을 고려한 응용소프트웨어의 유지관리비용 산정모델에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Hyung Jong;Koo, Eun Young;Han, Kyeong Seok
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
    • /
    • v.14 no.3
    • /
    • pp.67-84
    • /
    • 2015
  • Software is more diverse and complex and the level of importance for the maintenance of application software to securely operate software is also gradually increasing in proportion. The calculation method for maintenance cost of application software applied in Korea public enterprises is involved in the range of 10 to 15% of development cost, depending on the Software Project Cost Estimation Guide. Moreover, as most software maintenance cost estimation procedures do not take into consideration of the risk factors related of maintenance, it can be seen as a main cause for the occurrence of maintenance related accidents. This study proposes a maintenance cost estimate model that takes into consideration of the risks related to the software maintenance activities to improve and resolve issues arising from the estimation of maintenance cost. In doing so, maintenance risk factors are analyzed and a risk index is derived through the analysis of risk levels based on the risk factors. Based on such analysis, a maintenance cost estimate method which reflects the maintenance risk index was established.

Landslide Risk Assessment of Cropland and Man-made Infrastructures using Bayesian Predictive Model (베이지안 예측모델을 활용한 농업 및 인공 인프라의 산사태 재해 위험 평가)

  • Al, Mamun;Jang, Dong-Ho
    • Journal of The Geomorphological Association of Korea
    • /
    • v.27 no.3
    • /
    • pp.87-103
    • /
    • 2020
  • The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk of cropland and man-made infrastructures in a landslide-prone area using a GIS-based method. To achieve this goal, a landslide inventory map was prepared based on aerial photograph analysis as well as field observations. A total of 550 landslides have been counted in the entire study area. For model analysis and validation, extracted landslides were randomly selected and divided into two groups. The landslide causative factors such as slope, aspect, curvature, topographic wetness index, elevation, forest type, forest crown density, geology, land-use, soil drainage, and soil texture were used in the analysis. Moreover, to identify the correlation between landslides and causative factors, pixels were divided into several classes and frequency ratio was also extracted. A landslide susceptibility map was constructed using a bayesian predictive model (BPM) based on the entire events. In the cross validation process, the landslide susceptibility map as well as observation data were plotted with a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve then the area under the curve (AUC) was calculated and tried to extract a success rate curve. The results showed that, the BPM produced 85.8% accuracy. We believed that the model was acceptable for the landslide susceptibility analysis of the study area. In addition, for risk assessment, monetary value (local) and vulnerability scale were added for each social thematic data layers, which were then converted into US dollar considering landslide occurrence time. Moreover, the total number of the study area pixels and predictive landslide affected pixels were considered for making a probability table. Matching with the affected number, 5,000 landslide pixels were assumed to run for final calculation. Based on the result, cropland showed the estimated total risk as US $ 35.4 million and man-made infrastructure risk amounted to US $ 39.3 million.

Exports of SMEs against Risk? Theory and Evidence from Foreign Exchange Risk Insurance Schemes in Korea

  • Lee, Seo-Young
    • Journal of Korea Trade
    • /
    • v.23 no.5
    • /
    • pp.87-101
    • /
    • 2019
  • Purpose - This paper examines the effectiveness of the foreign exchange risk insurance system in the promotion of SME exports in Korea. The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term and long-term responses of SME exports to foreign exchange risk insurance support policies. Based on these empirical studies, we would like to present some operational improvements to the operation of the foreign exchange risk insurance system. Design/methodology - In order to analyze the effect of exchange risk insurance on the exports of SMEs, a VAR model consisting of foreign exchange risk insurance underwriting values, export relative price, and domestic demand pressure, including export volume, was established. The study began with tests of the stationarity of time series data. The unit root tests showed that all concerned variables were non-stationary. Accordingly, the results of the cointegration test showed that the tested variables are not cointegrated. Finally, an impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis were conducted to analyze the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. Findings - As a result of estimating the VAR (1) model, foreign exchange risk insurance was found to be significant at a 1% significance level for SME' export promotion. In the impulse response analysis, SMEs' export response to the impulse of foreign exchange risk insurance showed that exports gradually increased until the third quarter, and then slowed down. However, the impulse did not disappear, and appeared continuously. Originality/value - This study analyzed the effect of foreign exchange insurance on exports of SMEs by applying the VAR model. In particular, this study is the first to analyze the short-term and long-term effects of foreign exchange risk insurance on exports of SMEs. The empirical evidence in the current study have a policy implication for the policy authority to support and promote the foreign exchange risk insurance in the effect of exchange rate volatility on Korea' export SMEs.

Development of Risk-Appearance Frequency Evaluation Model for Railway Level-Crossing Accidents (철도건널목 사고 위험도-발생빈도 평가모델 개발)

  • Kim, Min-Su;Wang, Jong-Bae;Park, Chan-Woo;Choi, Don-Bum
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
    • /
    • v.24 no.3
    • /
    • pp.96-101
    • /
    • 2009
  • In this study, a risk-appearance frequency evaluation model for railway level-crossing accidents is developed with the frequency estimation based on the accident history. It follows the worldwide common safety management approach and reflects the operation conditions and accident properties of the domestic railway system. The risk appearance frequency evaluation process contains a development of accident scenarios by defining the system configurations and functions, and a frequency estimation of hazardous events based on the accident history. The developed model is verified with the accident history during 5 years('03-'07) for 3 hazardous events: 'Being trapped in level crossing(Hl)', 'Crossing during warning signal(H2)' and 'Breaking through/detouring the barrier(H3)'. This risk appearance frequency evaluation model will be combined with a consequence evaluation model so as to offer full risk assessment for the railway accident. The accident risk assessment will contribute to improving the safety management of the railway system.

Development of a Targeted Recommendation Model for Earthquake Risk Prevention in the Whole Disaster Chain

  • Su, Xiaohui;Ming, Keyu;Zhang, Xiaodong;Liu, Junming;Lei, Da
    • Journal of Information Processing Systems
    • /
    • v.17 no.1
    • /
    • pp.14-27
    • /
    • 2021
  • Strong earthquakes have caused substantial losses in recent years, and earthquake risk prevention has aroused a significant amount of attention. Earthquake risk prevention products can help improve the self and mutual-rescue abilities of people, and can create convenient conditions for earthquake relief and reconstruction work. At present, it is difficult for earthquake risk prevention information systems to meet the information requirements of multiple scenarios, as they are highly specialized. Aiming at mitigating this shortcoming, this study investigates and analyzes four user roles (government users, public users, social force users, insurance market users), and summarizes their requirements for earthquake risk prevention products in the whole disaster chain, which comprises three scenarios (pre-quake preparedness, in-quake warning, and post-quake relief). A targeted recommendation rule base is then constructed based on the case analysis method. Considering the user's location, the earthquake magnitude, and the time that has passed since the earthquake occurred, a targeted recommendation model is built. Finally, an Android APP is implemented to realize the developed model. The APP can recommend multi-form earthquake risk prevention products to users according to their requirements under the three scenarios. Taking the 2019 Lushan earthquake as an example, the APP exhibits that the model can transfer real-time information to everyone to reduce the damage caused by an earthquake.