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Analysis of Price Fluctuation Factors in the Vessel Demolition Market : Focusing on India & Bangladesh (선박 해체시장 가격 변동 요인 분석 : 인디아, 방글라데시를 중심으로)

  • Lee ChongWoo;Jang Chul-Ho
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.243-254
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    • 2023
  • This study investigates the factors contributing to price fluctuations in the shipscrapping market, the final stage in a vessel's life cycle. Shipping companies make decisions on ship dismantling based on factors such as declining freight rates, increasing vessel age leading to higher costs, or compliance with new environmental regulations. Utilizing the FMOLS (Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares) and VECM (Vector Error Correction Model) methodologies, the research explores the long-term elasticities of factors influencing shipscrapping prices and examines short-term causal relationships. Using a time series dataset spanning from December 2015 to April 2023, covering a total of 90 months, the study focuses on the shipscrapping prices of Capesize vessels in India and Bangladesh, which constitute a significant portion of the shipbreaking market. The findings indicate that, in the long term, shipscrapping prices are closely related to global scrap prices, 20-year-old secondhand Capesize vessel prices, newbuilding prices, and exchange rates. In terms of short-term causal relationships, an increase in global scrap prices induces a rise in shipscrapping prices, while the remaining variables do not contribute to such increases. Specifically, an escalation in shipscrapping prices is associated with increased prices of 20-year-old secondhand vessels, newbuilding prices, and exchange rates. However, the other variables do not show a significant influence on short-term increases in shipscrapping prices.

Health Care Policy: Decision-Making System Needs Innovation (보건의료정책, 의사결정체계 혁신이 필요하다)

  • Sun-Hee Lee
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.34 no.3
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    • pp.223-225
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    • 2024
  • It has been 7 months since medical students boycotted classes and resident doctors left hospitals in protest against the government's policy to increase the number of doctors. As education was suspended and services at university hospitals reduced, medical gaps in medical care have emerged. As a result, concerns are growing about a potential crisis in the healthcare system. The reason for the doctors' strong opposition to the policy lies in several issues that need improvement in the government's decision-making process. By reviewing these issues, we look forward to drawing lessons for making better policy decisions in the future. First, because the evidence supporting policy decisions has various characteristics and scopes, it is important to thoroughly discuss these grounds with stakeholders. Second, the discussion structure for reviewing evidence and making decisions should consist of members capable of fully negotiating diverse perspectives and should be operated through a fair and transparent process. If these steps are not properly implemented, conflicts surrounding the evidence could escalate, thereby lowering trust in the government. When stakeholders lose trust in the government, the social costs of implementing policies may rise, and policy efficiency may decline. Therefore, it is time to restructure the decision-making system in the direction of reducing potential conflicts that may arise during the future policy implementation process and increasing trust in the government.

Analysis of Greenhouse Thermal Environment by Model Simulation (시뮬레이션 모형에 의한 온실의 열환경 분석)

  • 서원명;윤용철
    • Journal of Bio-Environment Control
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.215-235
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    • 1996
  • The thermal analysis by mathematical model simulation makes it possible to reasonably predict heating and/or cooling requirements of certain greenhouses located under various geographical and climatic environment. It is another advantages of model simulation technique to be able to make it possible to select appropriate heating system, to set up energy utilization strategy, to schedule seasonal crop pattern, as well as to determine new greenhouse ranges. In this study, the control pattern for greenhouse microclimate is categorized as cooling and heating. Dynamic model was adopted to simulate heating requirements and/or energy conservation effectiveness such as energy saving by night-time thermal curtain, estimation of Heating Degree-Hours(HDH), long time prediction of greenhouse thermal behavior, etc. On the other hand, the cooling effects of ventilation, shading, and pad ||||&|||| fan system were partly analyzed by static model. By the experimental work with small size model greenhouse of 1.2m$\times$2.4m, it was found that cooling the greenhouse by spraying cold water directly on greenhouse cover surface or by recirculating cold water through heat exchangers would be effective in greenhouse summer cooling. The mathematical model developed for greenhouse model simulation is highly applicable because it can reflects various climatic factors like temperature, humidity, beam and diffuse solar radiation, wind velocity, etc. This model was closely verified by various weather data obtained through long period greenhouse experiment. Most of the materials relating with greenhouse heating or cooling components were obtained from model greenhouse simulated mathematically by using typical year(1987) data of Jinju Gyeongnam. But some of the materials relating with greenhouse cooling was obtained by performing model experiments which include analyzing cooling effect of water sprayed directly on greenhouse roof surface. The results are summarized as follows : 1. The heating requirements of model greenhouse were highly related with the minimum temperature set for given greenhouse. The setting temperature at night-time is much more influential on heating energy requirement than that at day-time. Therefore It is highly recommended that night- time setting temperature should be carefully determined and controlled. 2. The HDH data obtained by conventional method were estimated on the basis of considerably long term average weather temperature together with the standard base temperature(usually 18.3$^{\circ}C$). This kind of data can merely be used as a relative comparison criteria about heating load, but is not applicable in the calculation of greenhouse heating requirements because of the limited consideration of climatic factors and inappropriate base temperature. By comparing the HDM data with the results of simulation, it is found that the heating system design by HDH data will probably overshoot the actual heating requirement. 3. The energy saving effect of night-time thermal curtain as well as estimated heating requirement is found to be sensitively related with weather condition: Thermal curtain adopted for simulation showed high effectiveness in energy saving which amounts to more than 50% of annual heating requirement. 4. The ventilation performances doting warm seasons are mainly influenced by air exchange rate even though there are some variations depending on greenhouse structural difference, weather and cropping conditions. For air exchanges above 1 volume per minute, the reduction rate of temperature rise on both types of considered greenhouse becomes modest with the additional increase of ventilation capacity. Therefore the desirable ventilation capacity is assumed to be 1 air change per minute, which is the recommended ventilation rate in common greenhouse. 5. In glass covered greenhouse with full production, under clear weather of 50% RH, and continuous 1 air change per minute, the temperature drop in 50% shaded greenhouse and pad & fan systemed greenhouse is 2.6$^{\circ}C$ and.6.1$^{\circ}C$ respectively. The temperature in control greenhouse under continuous air change at this time was 36.6$^{\circ}C$ which was 5.3$^{\circ}C$ above ambient temperature. As a result the greenhouse temperature can be maintained 3$^{\circ}C$ below ambient temperature. But when RH is 80%, it was impossible to drop greenhouse temperature below ambient temperature because possible temperature reduction by pad ||||&|||| fan system at this time is not more than 2.4$^{\circ}C$. 6. During 3 months of hot summer season if the greenhouse is assumed to be cooled only when greenhouse temperature rise above 27$^{\circ}C$, the relationship between RH of ambient air and greenhouse temperature drop($\Delta$T) was formulated as follows : $\Delta$T= -0.077RH+7.7 7. Time dependent cooling effects performed by operation of each or combination of ventilation, 50% shading, pad & fan of 80% efficiency, were continuously predicted for one typical summer day long. When the greenhouse was cooled only by 1 air change per minute, greenhouse air temperature was 5$^{\circ}C$ above outdoor temperature. Either method alone can not drop greenhouse air temperature below outdoor temperature even under the fully cropped situations. But when both systems were operated together, greenhouse air temperature can be controlled to about 2.0-2.3$^{\circ}C$ below ambient temperature. 8. When the cool water of 6.5-8.5$^{\circ}C$ was sprayed on greenhouse roof surface with the water flow rate of 1.3 liter/min per unit greenhouse floor area, greenhouse air temperature could be dropped down to 16.5-18.$0^{\circ}C$, whlch is about 1$0^{\circ}C$ below the ambient temperature of 26.5-28.$0^{\circ}C$ at that time. The most important thing in cooling greenhouse air effectively with water spray may be obtaining plenty of cool water source like ground water itself or cold water produced by heat-pump. Future work is focused on not only analyzing the feasibility of heat pump operation but also finding the relationships between greenhouse air temperature(T$_{g}$ ), spraying water temperature(T$_{w}$ ), water flow rate(Q), and ambient temperature(T$_{o}$).

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Long Term Follow Up Results of Serum Squamous Cell Carcinoma Antigen Level in Uterine Cervix Cancer Treated by Radiotherapy (자궁경부암 방사선치료 후 혈중 Squamous Cell Carcinoma 항원치의 장기추적 결과)

  • Yun, Hyong-Geun
    • Radiation Oncology Journal
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.283-290
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    • 2003
  • Purpose: To evaluate the long term significance of the squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) antigen (Ag) as a tumor marker in uterine cervix carcinoma. Materials and Methods: The SCC antigen levels of pre-radiotherapy and serial post-radiotherapy serum were analyzed in 48 patients who received radiotherapy with histologically proven primary SCC of the uterine cervix. Results: Pre-radiotherapy SCC Ag level was high ($\geq$2 ng/ml) at 79.2$\%$. After the treatment, the SCC Ag level was significantly decreased. The SCC Ag level measured at about 3 months after radiotherapy was high at 23.0$\%$. In further follow up measurements, a rise of the SCC Ag to a high level was well associated with clinical relapse. The specificity of the elevated SCC Ag level in association with recurrent or persistent disease was 100$\%$, and the sensitivity was 85.7$\%$. In 3 of 4 lung metastasis cases, lung lesions were detected in chest PA before elevation of the SCC Ag level. The median lead time of the high SCC Ag level to clinical recurrence was 4 months. Conclusion: SCC Ag was a good tumor marker for monitoring treatment effect in patients with increased pre-treatment levels except in case of early lung metastasis. Elevation of the SCC Ag level after radiotherapy accurately predicted the treatment failure with lead time of 4 months. But, in early lung metastasis cases, the SCC level may be normal temporarily. Thus, chest PA should be checked to evaluate the presence of lung metastasis.

Growth and optical conductivity properties for MnAl2S4 single crystal thin film by hot wall epitaxy method (Hot Wall Epitaxy(HWE)법에 의한 MnAl2S4 단결정 박막 성장과 광전도 특성)

  • You, Sangha;Lee, Kijeong;Hong, Kwangjoon;Moon, Jongdae
    • Journal of the Korean Crystal Growth and Crystal Technology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.229-236
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    • 2014
  • A stoichiometric mixture of evaporating materials for $MnAl_2S_4$ single crystal thin films was prepared from horizontal electric furnace. To obtain the single crystal thin films, $MnAl_2S_4$ mixed crystal was deposited on thoroughly etched semi-insulating GaAs(100) substrate by the Hot Wall Epitaxy (HWE) system. The source and substrate temperatures were $630^{\circ}C$ and $410^{\circ}C$, respectively. The crystalline structure of the single crystal thin films was investigated by the photoluminescence and double crystal X-ray diffraction (DCXD). The temperature dependence of the energy band gap of the $MnAl_2S_4$ obtained from the absorption spectra was well described by the Varshni's relation, $E_g(T)=3.7920eV-5.2729{\times}10^{-4}eV/K)T^2/(T+786 K)$. In order to explore the applicability as a photoconductive cell, we measured the sensitivity (${\gamma}$), the ratio of photocurrent to dark current (pc/dc), maximum allowable power dissipation (MAPD) and response time. The results indicated that the photoconductive characteristic were the best for the samples annealed in S vapour compare with in Mn, Al, air and vacuum vapour. Then we obtained the sensitivity of 0.93, the value of pc/dc of $1.10{\times}10^7$, the MAPD of 316 mW, and the rise and decay time of 14.8 ms and 12.1 ms, respectively.

Wearable Computers

  • Cho, Gil-Soo;Barfield, Woodrow;Baird, Kevin
    • Fiber Technology and Industry
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    • v.2 no.4
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    • pp.490-508
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    • 1998
  • One of the latest fields of research in the area of output devices is tactual display devices [13,31]. These tactual or haptic devices allow the user to receive haptic feedback output from a variety of sources. This allows the user to actually feel virtual objects and manipulate them by touch. This is an emerging technology and will be instrumental in enhancing the realism of wearable augmented environments for certain applications. Tactual displays have previously been used for scientific visualization in virtual environments by chemists and engineers to improve perception and understanding of force fields and of world models populated with the impenetrable. In addition to tactual displays, the use of wearable audio displays that allow sound to be spatialized are being developed. With wearable computers, designers will soon be able to pair spatialized sound to virtual representations of objects when appropriate to make the wearable computer experience even more realistic to the user. Furthermore, as the number and complexity of wearable computing applications continues to grow, there will be increasing needs for systems that are faster, lighter, and have higher resolution displays. Better networking technology will also need to be developed to allow all users of wearable computers to have high bandwidth connections for real time information gathering and collaboration. In addition to the technology advances that make users need to wear computers in everyday life, there is also the desire to have users want to wear their computers. In order to do this, wearable computing needs to be unobtrusive and socially acceptable. By making wearables smaller and lighter, or actually embedding them in clothing, users can conceal them easily and wear them comfortably. The military is currently working on the development of the Personal Information Carrier (PIC) or digital dog tag. The PIC is a small electronic storage device containing medical information about the wearer. While old military dog tags contained only 5 lines of information, the digital tags may contain volumes of multi-media information including medical history, X-rays, and cardiograms. Using hand held devices in the field, medics would be able to call this information up in real time for better treatment. A fully functional transmittable device is still years off, but this technology once developed in the military, could be adapted tp civilian users and provide ant information, medical or otherwise, in a portable, not obstructive, and fashionable way. Another future device that could increase safety and well being of its users is the nose on-a-chip developed by the Oak Ridge National Lab in Tennessee. This tiny digital silicon chip about the size of a dime, is capable of 'smelling' natural gas leaks in stoves, heaters, and other appliances. It can also detect dangerous levels of carbon monoxide. This device can also be configured to notify the fire department when a leak is detected. This nose chip should be commercially available within 2 years, and is inexpensive, requires low power, and is very sensitive. Along with gas detection capabilities, this device may someday also be configured to detect smoke and other harmful gases. By embedding this chip into workers uniforms, name tags, etc., this could be a lifesaving computational accessory. In addition to the future safety technology soon to be available as accessories are devices that are for entertainment and security. The LCI computer group is developing a Smartpen, that electronically verifies a user's signature. With the increase in credit card use and the rise in forgeries, is the need for commercial industries to constantly verify signatures. This Smartpen writes like a normal pen but uses sensors to detect the motion of the pen as the user signs their name to authenticate the signature. This computational accessory should be available in 1999, and would bring increased peace of mind to consumers and vendors alike. In the entertainment domain, Panasonic is creating the first portable hand-held DVD player. This device weight less than 3 pounds and has a screen about 6' across. The color LCD has the same 16:9 aspect ratio of a cinema screen and supports a high resolution of 280,000 pixels and stereo sound. The player can play standard DVD movies and has a hour battery life for mobile use. To summarize, in this paper we presented concepts related to the design and use of wearable computers with extensions to smart spaces. For some time, researchers in telerobotics have used computer graphics to enhance remote scenes. Recent advances in augmented reality displays make it possible to enhance the user's local environment with 'information'. As shown in this paper, there are many application areas for this technology such as medicine, manufacturing, training, and recreation. Wearable computers allow a much closer association of information with the user. By embedding sensors in the wearable to allow it to see what the user sees, hear what the user hears, sense the user's physical state, and analyze what the user is typing, an intelligent agent may be able to analyze what the user is doing and try to predict the resources he will need next or in the near future. Using this information, the agent may download files, reserve communications bandwidth, post reminders, or automatically send updates to colleagues to help facilitate the user's daily interactions. This intelligent wearable computer would be able to act as a personal assistant, who is always around, knows the user's personal preferences and tastes, and tries to streamline interactions with the rest of the world.

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Two-dimensional Velocity Measurements of Campbell Glacier in East Antarctica Using Coarse-to-fine SAR Offset Tracking Approach of KOMPSAT-5 Satellite Image (KOMPSAT-5 위성영상의 Coarse-to-fine SAR 오프셋트래킹 기법을 활용한 동남극 Campbell Glacier의 2차원 이동속도 관측)

  • Chae, Sung-Ho;Lee, Kwang-Jae;Lee, Sungu
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.37 no.6_3
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    • pp.2035-2046
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    • 2021
  • Glacier movement speed is the most basic measurement for glacial dynamics research and is a very important indicator in predicting sea level rise due to climate change. In this study, the two-dimensional velocity measurements of Campbell Glacier located in Terra Nova Bay in East Antarctica were observed through the SAR offset tracking technique. For this purpose, domestic KOMPSAT-5 SAR satellite images taken on July 9, 2021 and August 6, 2021 were acquired. The Multi-kernel SAR offset tracking proposed through previous studies is a technique to obtain the optimal result that satisfies both resolution and precision. However, since offset tracking is repeatedly performed according to the size of the kernel, intensive computational power and time are required. Therefore, in this study, we strategically proposed a coarse-to-fine offset tracking approach. Through coarse-to-fine SAR offset tracking, it is possible to obtain a result with improved observation precision (especially, about 4 times in azimuth direction) while maintaining resolution compared to general offset tracking results. Using this proposed technique, a two-dimensional velocity measurements of Campbell Glacier were generated. As a result of analyzing the two-dimensional movement velocity image, it was observed that the grounding line of Campbell Glacier exists at approximately latitude -74.56N. The flow velocity of Campbell Glacier Tongue analyzed in this study (185-237 m/yr) increased compared to that of 1988-1989 (140-240 m/yr). And compared to the flow velocity (181-268 m/yr) in 2010-2012, the movement speed near the ground line was similar, but it was confirmed that the movement speed at the end of the Campbell Glacier Tongue decreased. However, there is a possibility that this is an error that occurs because the study result of this study is an annual rate of glacier movement that occurred for 28 days. For accurate comparison, it will be necessary to expand the data in time series and accurately calculate the annual rate. Through this study, the two-dimensional velocity measurements of the glacier were observed for the first time using the KOMPSAT-5 satellite image, a domestic X-band SAR satellite. It was confirmed that the coarse-to-fine SAR offset tracking approach of the KOMPSAT-5 SAR image is very useful for observing the two-dimensional velocity of glacier movements.

The Sillok as National Supreme Archives : An archival interpretation (실록(實錄) : 등록(謄錄)의 위계(位階))

  • O, Hang-Nyeong
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.3
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    • pp.91-113
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    • 2001
  • History always be re-interpreted as the time flows. 'The Sillok', Which was registered in Memory of World of UNESCO in 1997, is comprehensive documents of the Chosun Dynasty, which had been compiled after kings' death, The Sillok encompasses 473 years of the reign in their 848 volumes(1,893 chapters). It was a history itself and has been main source in studying Korean history. Due to the rise of studies on the Sillok, time has come to explore the nature of the Sillok and to criticize the text, which would be called 'The Sillok-Study'. In this context, this paper examined three concepts that categorize the nature of the Sillok as historical materials ;Is it book or record?; The Sillok in register system in pre-modern society; And the Sillok as the National Archives. Korean historians, including myself, haven't yet examined the question whether the Sillok is the Book or Record in terms of archival science. At first, I regarded it as history book, and with this presupposition, wrote several papers on the characteristics of the Sillok. However, I recognized that the Sillok are close to record rather that history book as I examined the definition of glossary of librarian study, OED (Oxford English Dictionary) and Encyclopedia of Britannica, etc. Definitely, the Sillok was neither compiled and published to be read and sold publicly, nor meant to the works of literature or scholarship. one may say that the court-historians wrote comments on the facts and therefore it was just scholarly work. However, because the court-historians produced their comments on their own businesses, the outcome of 'their scholarly works' were also records conceptually, as were daily court-journalists in Rome. Its publication also had a absolutely different meaning from that of modern society. It was a method to preserve the important national records and distributed each edition of them to plural repositories for its safety and security. How can we explain its book-like shape and the procedure of compilation after a kings' death. The answer is as follows ; In pre-modern society, it was a common record-keeping system in the world to register records materials in order to arrange the materials of different sizes and to store them conveniently. And the lack of scientific preservation or conservation skill also encouraged them to register original records. Actually, the court-historians who participated in the compiling process called themselves "registering officers". On the other hand, similar to social hierarchy, there was a hierarchical system of records, and the Sillok was placed at the top of this hierarchy. In conclusion, the Sillok was a kind of registered records in the middle ages and the supreme records in the records-world. In addition to this we can also conceptualize the Sillok as archives. Through the compiling process, the most important and valuable records were selected to be the parts of Sillok. This process corresponds to the modem records appraisal. In the next step, it was preserved in the Four Archives(史庫) which located at remote site as archives and only accessible by the descendents in the future, who might be the people of the next dynasty. And nobody could access or read the documents at that time except the authorized court-historians who were archivists of the Chosun Dynasty. From this perspective, I conclude that Sillok was the supreme confidential archives in the register system. I work for the Government Archives as a historian and archivist. Whenever I entered the exhibition hall of the Government Archives and Records Service(GARS) and saw the replica of the Archives of Taebeak Mountain built during Chosun period, I always asked to myself a question whether the Sillok can be a symbol of the archival tradition of Korea and the GARS. Now, I can say, 'Yes!' definitely.

Does an extensive diagnostic workup for upfront resectable pancreatic cancer result in a delay which affects survival? Results from an international multicentre study

  • Thomas B. Russell;Peter L. Labib;Jemimah Denson;Fabio Ausania;Elizabeth Pando;Keith J. Roberts;Ambareen Kausar;Vasileios K. Mavroeidis;Gabriele Marangoni;Sarah C. Thomasset;Adam E. Frampton;Pavlos Lykoudis;Manuel Maglione;Nassir Alhaboob;Hassaan Bari;Andrew M. Smith;Duncan Spalding;Parthi Srinivasan;Brian R. Davidson;Ricky H. Bhogal;Daniel Croagh;Ashray Rajagopalan;Ismael Dominguez;Rohan Thakkar;Dhanny Gomez;Michael A. Silva;Pierfrancesco Lapolla;Andrea Mingoli;Alberto Porcu;Teresa Perra;Nehal S. Shah;Zaed Z. R. Hamady;Bilal Al-Sarrieh;Alejandro Serrablo;Somaiah Aroori
    • Annals of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.403-414
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    • 2023
  • Backgrounds/Aims: Pancreatoduodenectomy (PD) is recommended in fit patients with a carcinoma (PDAC) of the pancreatic head, and a delayed resection may affect survival. This study aimed to correlate the time from staging to PD with long-term survival, and study the impact of preoperative investigations (if any) on the timing of surgery. Methods: Data were extracted from the Recurrence After Whipple's (RAW) study, a multicentre retrospective study of PD outcomes. Only PDAC patients who underwent an upfront resection were included. Patients who received neoadjuvant chemo-/radiotherapy were excluded. Group A (PD within 28 days of most recent preoperative computed tomography [CT]) was compared to group B (> 28 days). Results: A total of 595 patents were included. Compared to group A (median CT-PD time: 12.5 days, interquartile range: 6-21), group B (49 days, 39-64.5) had similar one-year survival (73% vs. 75%, p = 0.6), five-year survival (23% vs. 21%, p = 0.6) and median time-to-death (17 vs. 18 months, p = 0.8). Staging laparoscopy (43 vs. 29.5 days, p = 0.009) and preoperative biliary stenting (39 vs. 20 days, p < 0.001) were associated with a delay to PD, but magnetic resonance imaging (32 vs. 32 days, p = 0.5), positron emission tomography (40 vs. 31 days, p > 0.99) and endoscopic ultrasonography (28 vs. 32 days, p > 0.99) were not. Conclusions: Although a treatment delay may give rise to patient anxiety, our findings would suggest this does not correlate with worse survival. A delay may be necessary to obtain further information and minimize the number of PD patients diagnosed with early disease recurrence.

Prediction of Life Expectancy for Terminally Ill Cancer Patients Based on Clinical Parameters (말기 암 환자에서 임상변수를 이용한 생존 기간 예측)

  • Yeom, Chang-Hwan;Choi, Youn-Seon;Hong, Young-Seon;Park, Yong-Gyu;Lee, Hye-Ree
    • Journal of Hospice and Palliative Care
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.111-124
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    • 2002
  • Purpose : Although the average life expectancy has increased due to advances in medicine, mortality due to cancer is on an increasing trend. Consequently, the number of terminally ill cancer patients is also on the rise. Predicting the survival period is an important issue in the treatment of terminally ill cancer patients since the choice of treatment would vary significantly by the patents, their families, and physicians according to the expected survival. Therefore, we investigated the prognostic factors for increased mortality risk in terminally ill cancer patients to help treat these patients by predicting the survival period. Methods : We investigated 31 clinical parameters in 157 terminally ill cancer patients admitted to in the Department of Family Medicine, National Health Insurance Corporation Ilsan Hospital between July 1, 2000 and August 31, 2001. We confirmed the patients' survival as of October 31, 2001 based on medical records and personal data. The survival rates and median survival times were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test was used to compare the differences between the survival rates according to each clinical parameter. Cox's proportional hazard model was used to determine the most predictive subset from the prognostic factors among many clinical parameters which affect the risk of death. We predicted the mean, median, the first quartile value and third quartile value of the expected lifetimes by Weibull proportional hazard regression model. Results : Out of 157 patients, 79 were male (50.3%). The mean age was $65.1{\pm}13.0$ years in males and was $64.3{\pm}13.7$ years in females. The most prevalent cancer was gastric cancer (36 patients, 22.9%), followed by lung cancer (27, 17.2%), and cervical cancer (20, 12.7%). The survival time decreased with to the following factors; mental change, anorexia, hypotension, poor performance status, leukocytosis, neutrophilia, elevated serum creatinine level, hypoalbuminemia, hyperbilirubinemia, elevated SGPT, prolonged prothrombin time (PT), prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), hyponatremia, and hyperkalemia. Among these factors, poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and aPTT were significant prognostic factors of death risk in these patients according to the results of Cox's proportional hazard model. We predicted that the median life expectancy was 3.0 days when all of the above 4 factors were present, $5.7{\sim}8.2$ days when 3 of these 4 factors were present, $11.4{\sim}20.0$ days when 2 of the 4 were present, and $27.9{\sim}40.0$ when 1 of the 4 was present, and 77 days when none of these 4 factors were present. Conclusions : In terminally ill cancer patients, we found that the prognostic factors related to reduced survival time were poor performance status, neutrophilia, prolonged PT and prolonged am. The four prognostic factors enabled the prediction of life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients.

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