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A Study on Internet Traffic Forecasting by Combined Forecasts (결합예측 방법을 이용한 인터넷 트래픽 수요 예측 연구)

  • Kim, Sahm
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.1235-1243
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    • 2015
  • Increased data volume in the ICT area has increased the importance of forecasting accuracy for internet traffic. Forecasting results may have paper plans for traffic management and control. In this paper, we propose combined forecasts based on several time series models such as Seasonal ARIMA and Taylor's adjusted Holt-Winters and Fractional ARIMA(FARIMA). In combined forecasting methods, we use simple-combined method, MSE based method (Armstrong, 2001), Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method and Equality Restricted Least Squares (ERLS) method. The results show that the Seasonal ARIMA model outperforms in 3 hours ahead forecasts and that combined forecasts outperform in longer periods.

Analysis of System Instability Factors in a Bistatic Radar (바이스태틱 레이더의 시스템 불안정 요소들에 대한 분석)

  • Yang, Jin-Mo;Lee, Min-Joon;Yun, Jae-Ryong;Kim, Whan-Woo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.114-122
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    • 2011
  • In this paper, we have identified the system instability factors in a bistatic radar system using pulse chasing and considered their effects on the bistatic receiver's MTI(Moving Target Indication) improvement performance. The pulse chasing is a method to efficiently scan a restricted search area within the limited transmitter power and time in a bistatic radar and to track a series of transmitted pulses using the receiver beam which has ideally matched to the pulse propagation rate. In this paper, we have discussed the interrelationship between the pulse chasing and time and frequency/phase synchronization and described the effects of the identified system instability factors on two kinds of MTI filter configuration, single delay-line and double delay-line, in the bistatic radar. And also, we have confirmed that the overall system improvement is restricted by a lower improvement factor among identified them, and discussed the allowable tolerance of the time and frequency/phase synchronization in the bistatic system.

Characteristics and control of intermittent flow in water distribution systems due to restricted supply (상수도관망에서 제한급수에 따른 간헐적 흐름의 특성 및 제어)

  • Yang, Kangseung;Kim, Donghong;Jung, Kwansoo;Kim, Juhwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-11
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    • 2014
  • The water distribution system should be invariably operated on continuous pattern for 24 hours a day. Occasionally, it is not practically possible to operate for 24 hours due to water shortage or financial constraints. Therefore an intermittent water supply is unavoidable in water shortage area and developing countries. But the intermittent water supply can introduce large pressure forces and rapid fluid accelerations into a water supply network. These disturbances may result in new pipe failure, leakage and secondary contamination. This paper proposed an improvement methodology to prevent the disturbances by intermittent water supply. For the study, the hydraulic variation of intermittent flow in water distribution system was measured and analyzed in the field by comparing with simulation of hydraulic model. Installations of control valves such as, pressure reducing and sustaining and air valves were employed for pressure and flow control. The effectiveness of the methods are presented by comparing hydraulic conditions before and after introducing the proposed solutions.

Numerical Study on the Changes in Microscopic Meteorological Elements due to Land Use Variations in the Nakdong River Basin (낙동강 하천 토지이용 변화에 따른 미세규모 기상 요소의 변동에 관한 수치 연구)

  • Kim, Eun-Ji;Lee, Soon-Hwan
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.1597-1611
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    • 2016
  • A numerical assessment using mesoscale-CFD (computational fluid dynamics) coupled A2C (atmosphere to CFD) model was carried out to analyze the variation of microscopic air flow pattern due to the construction of the Chilgok barrage in the Nakdong River. Scenarios with air flow patterns were classified into pre- and post-construction. The increased width of the river due to the construction of the Chilgok barrage induced obvious changes in moisture and the thermal environment around the river. However, air temperature variation was restricted within an area along the windward side in the numerical assessment. The impact of barrage construction on air temperature tends to be stronger during the nighttime than the daytime. It also stronger during the winter than the summer. In the simulation, the convergence of mesoscale wind is more pronounced after barrage construction than before. This is caused by the change of heat flux pattern induced by the widening of the river. Although this work is a case study with restricted atmospheric stability conditions that has several limitations in the numerical simulations, the impacts of the land-use changes brought about by the construction of the barrage in the river acceptable.

Research of Shrinkage Phenomenon on Metal Insert Injection Molded Parts (금속인서트 사출성형품의 수축현상에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Y.D.;Kim, Y.S.;Kim, I.K.;Jung, H.C.
    • Journal of Power System Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.80-85
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    • 1998
  • Engineering plastics have been magnified its usability due to its outstanding mechanic al, electrical and chemical properties, for example, in the area of computer, electricity, electronics, automobile, camera industry. In recent, automobile speedometer system is changing from manual operation to motor operation. All plastic gears inserted by metal shaft are used In motor operated speedometer system. Therefore, in this research, experimental investigation of the shrinkage phenomenon was executed according to various inserted depth and injection conditions. In experiments, the inserted depth was controlled as 30% and 90% of the total thickness of the plastic gear. The main parameters of injection process were selected as injection pressure, holding pressure, melt temperature, injection rate. As main results, free shrinkage rate of the test part is increased about 4 times to restricted shrinkage rate and shrinkage phenomenon against all injection conditions have a trivial effect on the test parts as conventional parts.

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Genetic Diversify and Population Structure of Two Korean Pond Frog Species, Rana nigromaculata and R. plancyi (Anura, Ranidae), with a Survey of Temporal Genetic Variation in R. nigromaculata

  • Suh-Yung Yang;Jong-Bum Kim;Mi-Sook Min;Jae-Hwa Suh
    • Animal cells and systems
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    • v.3 no.3
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    • pp.275-283
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    • 1999
  • Korean R. plancyi occupies a restricted area in western South Korea and shows a relatively low level of genic variability (%P=15.2, Ho=0.052, He=0.048). In contrast, R. nigromaculata is broadly distributed in South Korea. The observed low level of variability of R. nigromaculata (%P=14.3, Ho=0.042, He=0.043) is probably due to its recent colonization. Populations of R. nigromaculata exhibited considerable genetic differentiation (F$_{sT}$=0.149) and low level of gene flow (Nm=1.427) among populations, compared to those of R. Plancyi (F$_{sTF$_{sT}$}$=0.096, Nm=2.354), which occupies a restricted area. The observed levels of gene flow among populations of R. nigromaculata (Nm=1.427) over a broad geographic range is relatively higher than other amphibian species. The high level of gene flow is probably the result of the high dispersal abilities of R. nigromaculata. A survey of temporal genic variation of R. nigromaculata showed that there was no significant change on the overall average genetic diversity from 1978 (average He=0.044) to 1997 (average He=0.040). Wright's F-statistics also indicated no significant genetic differentiation from 1978 (F$_{sT}$=0.118) to 1997 (F$_{sT}$=0.108). This suggests that the environmental change appears to have had little influence on the genetic composition of R. nigromaculata in the study areas during the past 20 years. The low level of temporal variation might be due to the result of high dispersal abilities and wide migration range of this species.

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TDM based MAC protocol for throughput enhancement in dense wireless LANs area (무선 랜 밀집 지역의 전송률 향상을 위한 시분할 매체 접근 제어 프로토콜)

  • Kwon, Hyeok-Jin;Hwang, Gyung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.534-541
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    • 2018
  • The number of stations existing in the same wireless channel is increasing due to the spread of the wireless LAN devices. CSMA/CA, a conventional wireless LAN protocol, uses a random backoff method. In the random backoff scheme, collision between stations is frequent in a dense region where the number of stations existing in the same channel is several tens or more, and the performance of the performance degradation of such a protocol, the IEEE 802.11ah standard proposed a Restricted Access Window(RAW) wireless access method. RAW improves performance by limiting the number of concurrent access stations by dividing the stations into several groups. In this paper, we propose a method to improve the performance of channel connection by using new group creation, group removal and group relocation algorithm according to traffic change by improving existing RAW method.

Studies on the setting a restricted area and recreation fishing management of Jeju special self-governing province (제주특별자치도의 낚시관리 및 통제구역 설정에 관한 연구 -관련법 분석 및 설문조사-)

  • Koo, Myung-Sung;Kim, Suk-Jong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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    • v.50 no.3
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    • pp.385-395
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    • 2014
  • This study is one of the research series for providing basic data that would contribute to the development of the field of fishing industry through the systematic fishing management, protection of fishery resources and healthy fishing culture with safety measures for fishermen in Jeju island according to the implementation of "Fishing Management and Support Act". As a result of analyzing the related acts, the contents of this study are related with provisions of "Fishing management and Support Act" on acts on fishing management, fish bait management, support for fishing and fishing related industries and with provisions of "Act of the preservation and management of desert island" on the preservation, use and development of desert island (use and development in a desert island, behavior in usable desert island). As a result of the survey, the rocks on the seashore showed the highest popularity with 52.6% for fishermen and the seawall was the highest with 47.1% for Maritime police as their fishing place in the fishing related activity data. And as the survey result about the awareness of "Fishing management and Support Act", 65.2% of general fishermen, 36.0% of maritime police and 70.5% of fishing related agencies answered that they knew the act. It was also surveyed whether they consider its contribution to fishing related industry development and positive result was shown by general fishermen and maritime police with 46.8%, 48.0% respectively whereas fishing-related enterprises showed negative answer with 47.7%. In the survey of fishing related regulation standard, general fishermen, maritime police and fishing related agencies all showed different opinions regarding the regulation standard. It is recommended that regulation standard needs to be set up after detailed review.

Advanced Calendar Queue Scheduler Design Methodology (진보된 캘린더 큐 스케줄러 설계방법론)

  • Kim, Jin-Sil;Chung, Won-Young;Lee, Jung-Hee;Lee, Yong-Surk
    • The Journal of Korean Institute of Communications and Information Sciences
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    • v.34 no.12B
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    • pp.1380-1386
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, we propose a CQS(Calendar Queue Scheduler) architecture which was designed for processing multimedia and timing traffic in home network. With various characteristics of the increased traffic flowed in home such as VoIP, VOD, IPTV, and Best-efforts traffic, the needs of managing QoS(Quality of Service) are being discussed. Making a group regarding application or service is effective to guarantee successful QoS under the restricted circumstances. The proposed design is aimed for home gateway corresponding to the end points of receiver on end-to-end QoS and eligible for supporting multimedia traffic within restricted network sources and optimizing queue sizes. Then, we simulated the area for each module and each memory. The area for each module is referenced by NAND($2{\times}1$) Gate(11.09) when synthesizing with Magnachip 0.18 CMOS libraries through the Synopsys Design Compiler. We verified the portion of memory is 85.38% of the entire CQS. And each memory size is extracted through CACTI 5.3(a unit in mm2). According to the increase of the memory’sentry, the increment of memory area gradually increases, and defining the day size for 1 year definitely affects the total CQS area. In this paper, we discussed design methodology and operation for each module when designing CQS by hardware.

Mean estimation of small areas using penalized spline mixed-model under informative sampling

  • Chytrasari, Angela N.R.;Kartiko, Sri Haryatmi;Danardono, Danardono
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.349-363
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    • 2020
  • Penalized spline is a suitable nonparametric approach in estimating mean model in small area. However, application of the approach in informative sampling in a published article is uncommon. We propose a semiparametric mixed-model using penalized spline under informative sampling to estimate mean of small area. The response variable is explained in terms of mean model, informative sample effect, area random effect and unit error. We approach the mean model by penalized spline and utilize a penalized spline function of the inclusion probability to account for the informative sample effect. We determine the best and unbiased estimators for coefficient model and derive the restricted maximum likelihood estimators for the variance components. A simulation study shows a decrease in the average absolute bias produced by the proposed model. A decrease in the root mean square error also occurred except in some quadratic cases. The use of linear and quadratic penalized spline to approach the function of the inclusion probability provides no significant difference distribution of root mean square error, except for few smaller samples.