• Title/Summary/Keyword: Research Information Systems

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The Application of Fuzzy Delphi Method in Forecasting of the price index of stocks (주가지수의 예측에 있어 Fuzzy Delphi 방법의 적용)

  • 김태호;강경식;김창은;박윤선;현광남
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.15 no.26
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    • pp.111-117
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    • 1992
  • In the stock marketing. investor needs speedy and accurate decision making for the investment. A stock exchange index provides the important index of the early of 1993 in Korea using Fuzzy Delphi Method(F. D. M) which is widely used to a mid and long range forecasting in decision making problem. In the Fuzzy Delphi method, considerably qualified experts an first requested to give their opinion seperately and without intercommunication. The forecasting data of experts consist of Triangular Fuzzy Number (T.F.N) which represents the pessimistic, moderate, and optimistic forecast of a stock exchange index. A statistical analysis and dissemblance index are then made of these subject data. These new information are then transmitted to the experts once again, and the process of reestimation is continued until the process converges to a reasonable stable forecast of stock exchange index. The goal of this research is to forecast the stock exchange index using F.D.M. in which subjective data of experts are transformed into quasi -objective data index by some statistical analysis and fuzzy operations. (a) A long range forecasting problem must be considered as an uncertain but not random problem. The direct use of fuzzy numbers and fuzzy methods seems to be more compatible and well suited. (b) The experts use their individual competency and subjectivity and this is the very reason why we propose the use of fuzzy concepts. (c) If you ask an expert the following question: Consider the forecasting of the price index of stocks in the near future. This experts wi11 certainly be more comfortable giving an answer to this question using three types of values: the maximum value, the proper value, and the minimum value rather than an answer in terms of the probability.

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DEVELOPMENT OF NEW TAXONOMY OF INAPPROPRIATE COMMUNICATION AND ITS APPLICATION TO OPERATING TEAMS IN NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS

  • Kim, Ar Ryum;Park, Jinkyun;Lee, Seung Woo;Jang, Inseok;Kang, Hyun Gook;Seong, Poong Hyun
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.44 no.8
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    • pp.897-910
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    • 2012
  • Inappropriate communications can cause a lack of necessary information exchange between operators and lead to serious consequences in large process systems such as nuclear power plants (NPPs). In this regard, various kinds of taxonomies of inappropriate communications have been developed to prevent inappropriate communications. However, there seems to be difficult to identify inappropriate communications from verbal protocol data between operators. Because the existing taxonomies were developed for use in report analysis, there is a problem of 'uncertainty'. In consequence, this paper proposes a new taxonomy of inappropriate communications and provides some insights to prevent inappropriate communications. In order to develop the taxonomy, existing taxonomies for four industries from 1980 to 2010 were collected and a new taxonomy is developed based on the simplified one-way communication model. In addition, the ratio of inappropriate communications from 8 samples of audio-visual format verbal protocol data recorded during emergency training sessions by operating teams is compared with performance scores calculated based on the task analysis. As a result, inappropriate communications can be easily identified from the verbal protocol data using the suggested taxonomy, and teams with a higher ratio of inappropriate communications tend to have a lower performance score.

A Study on Analysis of Performance Life for Hot Recycled Asphalt Pavements in the National Highway (일반국도의 가열 재활용 아스팔트 포장 공용수명 분석 연구)

  • Lee, Kanghun
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.117-129
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    • 2017
  • PURPOSES : The purpose of this study is to analyze the performance life of hot central plant recycling (HCPR) and hot in-place recycling (HIR) pavements applied to the National Highway for the past 20 years and compare it with conventional hot-mix asphalt (HMA) pavement. METHODS : In order to analyze the performance life of recycling asphalt pavements, a comprehensive literature review was conducted to investigate the government law and official system for the use of recycling asphalt pavement in Korea and foreign countries. Next, the application information of using a hot central plant recycling and hot in-place recycling pavements in the national highway is collected from the database of pavement management system (PMS) and then their field condition is visually surveyed. Finally, the performance life of recycling asphalt pavements in the national highway is analyzed and compared with conventional hot-mix asphalt pavement. RESULTS :Institutions are encouraging the promotion of using recycled asphalt pavement through various legal systems in Korea as well as abroad. Based on analysis results for the average performance life of hot central plant recycling pavement applied to the national highway, the average performance life is estimated to be 10.2 years. However, the average performance life of in-place recycling pavement is estimated to be 6.5 years. However, it is expected to increase performance life after the HIR construction system is modified. CONCLUSIONS : Based on the limited data analysis of the performance life of recycled asphalt pavements, HCPR shows similar performance life to conventional asphalt pavement but HIR shows shorter performance life than conventional asphalt pavement. However, it is noted that all performance life data is very limited and it should be monitored and analyzed further.

Development of A Biotelemetry System for A Totally Implantable Artificial Heart (완전이식 인공심장용 무선정보 전송장치의 개발)

  • Choi, Won-Woo;Kang, Dong-Woo;Park, Seong-Keun;Choi Jae-Soon;Kim, Hee-Chan;Min, Byoung-Goo
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.33B no.1
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    • pp.57-66
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    • 1996
  • In this paper, a new biotelemetry system for a transcutaneous data communication between an implanted artificial heart with a control system and an external human-interfaced management system has been developed. A radio telemetry using radio frequency is a commonly used method in the conventional telemetry systems. But, it is not suitable for the medical applications because of not only an interference due to a radio broadcasting but also a harmfulness to the human body. In this paper, therefore, a new biotelemetry system applied to an artificial heart has been developed with the results of the recent research for an optical telemetry system based on the infrared light transmission with good skin permeability. The performance of the biotelemetry system developed has been assessed through mock circulatory experiments, and the clinical applicability has been also confirmed with the successful results in the animal experiments.

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A Study on the Monitoring Criteria of Disaster Signs for Early-warning System based on Multiple Hazardous Gas Sensor (복합 유해 가스 센서 기반의 조기 경보 시스템을 위한 재난 전조 감시 기준에 관한 연구)

  • Han, Kyusang;Park, Sosoon;Yoon, En Sup
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2013
  • The number of large and complex buildings is growing and they are usually concentrated in metropolitan cities. There is a possibility in such buildings that a small accident can expand to a massive disaster since their scale and complexity. To deal with this issue, a research on gas sensors which can detect multiple gases and early-warning systems has been conducted. Proper criteria or standards are necessary for effective application and operation of such sensor-based disaster monitoring system. In this study, we have proposed the alarm criteria of concentration of hazardous gases for the detection and the alarm release. For each alarm level, systematic disaster response plans consist of responsive actions and information delivery have been prepared. These disaster monitoring criteria can help the detection of hazardous gas-related disaster in the early stage of accident and the provision of appropriate emergency responses.

A Variable Step-Size Adaptive Feedback Cancellation Algorithm based on GSAP in Digital Hearing Aids (가변 스텝 크기 적응 필터와 음성 검출기를 이용한 보청기용 피드백 제거 알고리즘)

  • An, Hongsub;Park, Gyuseok;Song, Jihyun;Lee, Sangmin
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.12
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    • pp.1744-1749
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    • 2013
  • Acoustic feedback is perceived as whistling or howling, which is a major complaint of hearing-aids users. Acoustic feedback cancellation is important in hearing-aids because acoustic feedback degrades performance of the hearing aid device by reducing maximum insertion gain. Adaptive systems for estimate acoustic feedback path and feedback suppression algorithms have been proposed in order to solve this problem. A typical feedback cancellation algorithm is LMS(least mean squares) because of its computational efficiency. However it has problem of convergence performance in high correlated input signal. In this paper, we propose a new variable step-size normalized LMS(least mean squares) algorithm using VAD(voice activity detection) to overcome the limitation of the LMS algorithm. The VAD algorithm is GSAP(global speech absence probability) and the feedback cancellation algorithm is normalized LMS. The proposed algorithm applies different step-size between voice and non-voice using VAD, for high stability, fast convergence speed and low misalignment when correlated inputs, such as speech. The result of simulation with white noise mixed speech signal, the proposed algorithm shows high performance then traditional algorithm in terms of stability, convergence speed and misalignment.

Risk Critical Point (RCP): A Quantifying Safety-Based Method Developed to Screen Construction Safety Risks

  • Soltanmohammadi, Mehdi;Saberi, Morteza;Yoon, Jin Hee;Soltanmohammadi, Khatereh;Pazhoheshfar, Peiman
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.221-235
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    • 2015
  • Risk assessment is an important phase of risk management. It is the stage in which risk is measured thoroughly to achieve effective management. Some factors such as probability and impact of risk have been used in the literature related to construction projects. Because in high-rise projects safety issues are paramount, this study has tried to develop a quantifying technique that takes into account three factors: probability, impact and Safety Performance Index (SPI) where the SPI is defined as the capability of an appropriate response to reduce or limit the effect of an event after its occurrence with regard to safety pertaining to a project. Regarding risk-related literatures which cover an uncertain subject, the proposed method developed in this research is based on a fuzzy logic approach. This approach entails a questionnaire in which the subjectivity and vagueness of responses is dealt with by using triangular fuzzy numbers instead of linguistic terms. This method returns a Risk Critical Point (RCP) on a zoning chart that places risks under categories: critical, critical-probability, critical-impact, and non-critical. The high-rise project in the execution phase has been taken as a case study to confirm the applicability of the proposed method. The monitoring results showed that the RCP method has the inherent ability to be extended to subsequent applications in the phases of risk response and control.

Comparison of Pork Quality and Sensory Characteristics for Antibiotic Free Yorkshire Crossbreds Raised in Hoop Houses

  • Whitley, N.;Hanson, D.;Morrow, W.;See, M.T.;Oh, S.H.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.25 no.11
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    • pp.1634-1640
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study was to compare pork characteristics and to determine consumer acceptability of pork chops from antibiotic free Yorkshire crossbreds sired by Berkshire (BY), Large Black (LBY), Tamworth (TY) or Yorkshire (YY) boars and reared in hoop houses. The experiments were conducted at the North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University (NCA&TSU) Farm in Greensboro, NC and the Cherry Research Station Center for Environmental Farming Systems (CEFS) Alternative Swine Unit in Goldsboro, NC (source of antibiotic free Yorkshire sows used at both places). Twenty-four sows were artificially inseminated at each location in each of three trials. Litters were weaned at 4 wks old, and reared within deep-bedded outdoor hoop houses. To compare pork characteristics, 104 randomly selected animals were harvested at a USDA-inspected abattoir at approximately 200 d of age. Variables measured included pH, color score, $L^*$, $a^*$, $b^*$, marbling score, drip loss, hot carcass weight, backfat thickness (BF), loin muscle area (LMA), and slice shear force. Sensory panel tests were also conducted at two time periods. The data was analyzed with GLM in SAS 9.01 including location, trial, and sire breed as fixed effects. Backfat thickness, LMA, color score and $a^*$ were different among breeding groups (p<0.05). The LBY pigs had thicker backfat and smaller LMA than the other breed types. The TY and YY had less backfat than all other breed groups. Color score was lower for YY than BY and LBY but intermediate for TY. The $a^*$ was lower for TY than other breeds except LBY which was intermediate. For one sensory panel test, YY pork was more preferred overall as well as for juiciness and texture compared to BY and LBY (p<0.05), but no impact of breed type was noted for the other test, with values similar for BY, LBY, TY and YY pork. This information may help small farmers make decisions about breed types to use for outdoor production.

Global Adult Tobacco Survey (GATS): A Case for Change in Definition, Analysis and Interpretation of "Cigarettes" and "Cigarettes Per Day" in Completed and Future Surveys

  • Jena, Pratap Kumar;Kishore, Jugal;Sarkar, Bidyut K.
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.14 no.5
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    • pp.3299-3304
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    • 2013
  • Background: The Global Adult Tobacco Survey has 15 key indicators, cigarettes smoked per day (CPD) among daily smokers being one of them. The first wave of GATS in 14 countries indicated that mean CPD use is higher in women than men in India only, which is contrary to the current understanding of tobacco use globally. This study was undertaken to understand the unusual findings for mean CPD use in the GATS-India survey. Materials and Methods: Items B06a and B06b of the GATS India survey questionnaire that collected information on daily consumption of manufactured and rolled cigarettes were analyzed using SPSS software. Exclusive users were identified from these items after excluding the concurrent users of other tobacco products. Cigarette type, exclusive use and gender stratified analyses were made. Consumption of different types of cigarettes among the mixed users of manufactured and rolled cigarettes were correlated. Results: Higher mean number of CPD use among male daily-smokers was observed than their female counterparts in product specific analysis. Mean CPD as per GATS cigarette definition was higher in males than females for exclusive users but a reverse trend was observed in case of non-exclusive users. Use of manufactured cigarettes increased with increase in use of rolled cigarette among the mixed users and around half of these users reported equal CPD frequency for the both types of cigarettes. Conclusions: The anomaly in mean CPD estimate in GATS-India data was due to inclusion of two heterogeneous products to define cigarettes, variation in cigarette product specific user proportions contributing to the average and non-exclusive concurrent use of other tobacco products. The consumption pattern of cigarettes among the mixed users highlights bias in CPD reporting. Definition, analysis and interpretation of 'cigarettes per day' in the GATS India survey need to be improved by redefining cigarettes and making product specific analyses.

The Designing of Production Planning Module for Advanced Planning System with Respect to Supply Chain of the Shipbuilding Industry (조선산업의 공급망을 고려한 APS 생산계획 모듈 설계)

  • Nam, Seunghoon;Ju, Su Heon;Ryu, Cheolho;Shin, Jong-Gye
    • Korean Journal of Computational Design and Engineering
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.353-362
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    • 2016
  • As ships become larger and construction of offshore plants increases recently, the amount of outsourcing has increased accordingly in the shipyard. Consequently, the system integration in terms of SCM (Supply Chain Management) of information and material flows has become much more important. Especially, since the SCM in the shipbuilding industry is operated in accordance with the production planning in connection with design, purchasing and production process which are the main components of the supply chain, the best production plan has to be established over the whole scheduling activities from the long-term planning to the short-term planning. The paper analyzes the characteristics of the SCM and the production planning system and suggests the need and the direction of APS (Advanced Planning System) development specialized in the supply chain management only for shipbuilding industry. Furthermore, propose a new SCP-Matrix (Supply Chain Planning Matrix), which is the basis of the APS development, appropriate for the shipbuilding industry and draw the core function of the APS module for the practical production plan.