• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
• /
• 2018.05a
• /
• pp.151-151
• /
• 2018

The present study is aimed to quantifying the uncertainty in the general circulation model (GCM) selection and its impacts on hydrology studies in the basins. For this reason, 13 GCMs was selected among the 26 GCM models of the Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) scenarios. Then, the climate data and hydrologic data with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the best model (INMCM4) and worst model (HadGEM2-AO) were compared to understand the uncertainty associated with GCM models. In order to project the runoff, the Precipitation-Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) was driven to simulate daily river discharge by using daily precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature as inputs of this model. For simulating the discharge, the model has been calibrated and validated for daily data. Root mean square error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) were applied as evaluation criteria. Then parameters of the model were applied for the periods 2011-2040, and 2070-2099 to project the future discharge the five large basins of South Korea. Then, uncertainty caused by projected temperature, precipitation and runoff changes were compared in seasonal and annual time scale for two future periods and RCPs compared to the reference period (1976-2005). The findings of this study indicated that more caution will be needed for selecting the GCMs and using the results of the climate change analysis.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.55 no.11
• /
• pp.887-901
• /
• 2022

Estimation of the parameters for individual rainfall-rainfall events can lead to a different set of parameters for each event which result in lack of parameter identifiability. Moreover, it becomes even more ambiguous to determine a representative set of parameters for the watershed due to enhanced variability exceeding the range of model parameters. To reduce the variability of estimated parameters, this study proposed a parameter optimization framework with the simultaneous use of multiple rainfall-runoff events based on NSE as an objective function. It was found that the proposed optimization framework could effectively estimate the representative set of parameters pertained to their physical range over the entire watershed. It is found that the difference in NSE value of optimization when it performed individual and multiple rainfall events, is 0.08. Furthermore, In terms of estimating the observed floods, the representative parameters showed a more improved (or similar) performance compared to the results obtained from the single-event optimization process on an NSE basis.

• Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
• /
• v.29 no.4
• /
• pp.59-72
• /
• 1987

Although long-term runoff analysis is important as much as flood analysis in the design of water works, the technological level of the former is relatively lower than that of the latter. In this respect, the precise estimation model for the volume of successive runoff should he developed as soon as possible. Up to now, in Korea, Gajiyama's formula has been widely used in long-term runoff analysis, which has many problems in applying in real situation. On the other hand, in flood analysis, unit hydrograph method has been exclusively used. Therefore, this study aims at trying to apply unit hydrograph method in long-term runoff analysis for the betterment of its estimation. Four test catchment areas were selected ; Maesan area in Namlum river as a representative area of Han river system, Cheongju area in Musim river as one of Geum river system, Hwasun area in Hwasun river as one of Yongsan river system, and Supyung area in Geum river as one of Nakdong river system. In the analysis of unit hydrograph, seperation of effective rainfall was carried out firstly. Considering that effective rainfall and moisture condition of catchrnent area are inside and outside of a phenomenon respectively and the latter is not considered in the analysis, Initial base flow(qb)was selected as an index of moisture condition. At the same time, basic equation(Eq.7) was established, in which qb can take a role as a parameter in relating between cumulative rainfall(P) and cumulative loss of rainfall(Ld). Based on the above equation, computer program for estimation model of qbwas seperately developed according to the range of qb, Developed model was applied to measured hydrographs and hyetographs for total 10 years in 4 test areas and effective rainfall was estimated. Estimation precision of model was checked as shown in Tab- 6 and Fig.8. In the next stage, based on the estimated effective rainfall(R) and runoff(Qd), a runoff distribution ratio was calculated for each teat area using by computerised least square method and used in making unit hydrographs in each test area. Significance of induced hydrographs was tested by checking the relative errors between estimated and measured runoff volume(Tab-9, 10). According to the results, runoff estimation error by unit hydrograph itself was merely 2 or 3 %, but other 2 or 3 % of error proved to be transferred error in the seperation of effective rainfall. In this study, special attentioning point is that, in spite of different river systems and forest conditions of test areas, standardized unit hydrographs for them have very similar curve shape, which can be explained by having similar catchinent characteristics such as stream length, catchinent area, slope, and vegetation intensity. That fact should be treated as important factor ingeneralization of unit hydrograph method.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
• /
• v.14 no.4
• /
• pp.875-886
• /
• 1994

This study is to develop an advanced storm runoff analysis program which takes geomorphological characteristics of watershed into consideration in determining model parameters. Basic concept of storm runoff modelling is based upon the kinematic wave theory. And numerical solution is obtained by the characteristic curve method. The storm runoff analysis program developed by this study is composed of multiple equivalent roughness sub-basins, each of which has two equivalent catchments on both side of a stream. Because it is based upon the stream-order of the Strahler system, the equivalent catchment-stream network reflects the stochastic geomorphological characteristics in the model parameter. Applicability and reliability of the storm runoff analysis program is evidenced by model calibration and verification process utilizing geographical and hydrological data of the Bocheong-river area which is a representative watershed of IHP projects in Korea. This study will hopefully contribute to hydrological calculation essentially required to understand water quality effect caused by regional development.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
• /
• v.10 no.6
• /
• pp.109-117
• /
• 2010

This study quantified the storm direction for a river basin by applying the von Mises distribution, also determined the representative storm direction. Additionally, the whole procedure was repeated for several storm types such as frontal, typhoon and convective storms for their comparison. From the results derived by analyzing a total of 101 storm events for the Naesung river basin, the von Mises distribution was found to explain the directional characteristics of storms. The representative moving directions derived for three different storm types were significantly different each other, which is coincident with the climate of Korea. The results derived in this study could be helpful to estimate more quantitatively the difference in the runoff response with respect to the moving direction of a storm.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.33 no.1
• /
• pp.123-132
• /
• 2000

In the study the instantaneous unit hydrographs (IUHs) based on the linear Nash (1957) and the nonlinear Diskin (1964) models are derived and compared for the Soyang river basin. Total 14 rainfall runoff events are used for the study and the model parameters are estimated by minimizing the sum of square error considering runoff hydrograph ordinates as relative weights. The representative IUHs for both models are decided to show an average shape of derived IUHs. In the application of the representative IUHs of Nash and Diskin, Diskin model shows better performances in reproducing the observed outflows, especially the peak flow. In the comparison of two Diskin models little difference could be found between the IUHs with the same or different number of two characteristic reservoirs.rvoirs.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
• /
• v.18 no.4
• /
• pp.419-428
• /
• 2018

This study is aimed at estimating and mitigating the impact of urban development on watershed hydrology for new town experienced with dramatical change of land use from rural to urban. The climate change scenario, representative concentration pathway (RCP), revealed direct response of runoff depth to precipitation, which increased until year 2100. The types of areas for urban use in addition to climate change affected the efficiencies of bioretention, applied as a low impact development (LID). Combining different areas for urban use suggested that a possible approach to mitigate the urban development impact on watershed hydrology by supplementing captured rainfall potential from area to area and attenuating peak discharge and retarding its time of concentration.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
• /
• v.11 no.3
• /
• pp.161-169
• /
• 2009

Rainfall-runoff procedures of urban area are more complicated than agricultural procedures. Extension and development of town leads to shift of the basin characteristics and it makes more difficult to use runoff models. In this study, the changes of hydrologic circumstances and the shape of hydrograph due to the urbanization in Cho-kyung river basin has been assessed which is the representative urban stream in Jeonju city. The urbanization can be classified as four typical year. The natural basin period(1924) that is before the urban development, the period of construction of Chonbuk National University campus (1963), the period of construction of residential area(1986), and urbanization process has been finally completed in 1995. The rainfall-runoff analysis has been carried out by Storm Water Management Model(SWMM) under condition of the basin characteristics and impervious area of each period. It was found that hydrologic characteristics such as river length, roughness coefficient, and coefficient of surface storage has been decreased. According to the land use change, the pervious area was decreased from 97.7% to 42%, while the impervious area was increased from 0.6% to 34%. The time of concentration was shorten from 90 minutes to 37 minutes. Along with decreasing the time of concentration, the peak discharge was increased from $4.37m^3/s$ to $111.13m^3/s$, and the runoff rate was also increased from 0.8% to 68%.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
• /
• v.47 no.3
• /
• pp.257-267
• /
• 2014

The impact of the combination of changes in temperature and rainfall due to climate change on surface water resources is important in hydro-meteorological research. In this study, 4 hydro-meteorological (HM) models from the Rainfall Runoff Library in the Catchment Modeling Toolkit were used to model the impact of climate change on runoff in streams for 5 river basins in the Republic of Korea. Future projections from 2021 to 2040 (2030s), 2051 to 2070 (2060s) and 2081 to 2099 (2090s), were derived from 12 General Circulation Models (GCMs) and 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs). GCM outputs were statistically adjusted and downscaled using Long-Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) and the HM models were well calibrated and verified for the period from 1999 to 2009. The study showed that there is substantial spatial, temporal and HM uncertainty in the future runoff shown by the interquartile range, range and coefficient of variation. In summary, the aggregated runoff will increase in the future by 10~24%, 7~30% and 11~30% of the respective baseline runoff for the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. This study presents a method to model future stream-flow taking into account the HM model and climate based uncertainty.

• Membrane and Water Treatment
• /
• v.10 no.1
• /
• pp.1-11
• /
• 2019

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) predicted that recent extreme hydrological events would affect water quality and aggravate various forms of water pollution. To analyze changes in water quality due to future climate change, input data (precipitation, average temperature, relative humidity, average wind speed and sunlight) were established using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario suggested by the AR5 and calculated the future runoff for each target period (Reference:1989-2015; I: 2016-2040; II: 2041-2070; and III: 2071-2099) using the semi-distributed land use-based runoff processes (SLURP) model. Meteorological factors that affect water quality (precipitation, temperature and runoff) were inputted into the multiple linear regression analysis (MLRA) and artificial neural network (ANN) models to analyze water quality data, dissolved oxygen (DO), biological oxygen demand (BOD), chemical oxygen demand (COD), suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (T-N) and total phosphorus (T-P). Future water quality prediction of the Anseongcheon River basin shows that DO at Gongdo station in the river will drop by 35% in autumn by the end of the $21^{st}$ century and that BOD, COD and SS will increase by 36%, 20% and 42%, respectively. Analysis revealed that the oxygen demand at Dongyeongyo station will decrease by 17% in summer and BOD, COD and SS will increase by 30%, 12% and 17%, respectively. This study suggests that there is a need to continuously monitor the water quality of the Anseongcheon River basin for long-term management. A more reliable prediction of future water quality will be achieved if various social scenarios and climate data are taken into consideration.