• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.214-223
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• 2022

Among migratory insect pests, Mythimna seperata and Cnaphalocrocis medinalis are invasive pests introduced into South Korea through westerlies from southern China. M. seperata and C. medinalis are insect pests that use rice as a host. They injure rice leaves and inhibit rice growth. To understand the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis, it is important to understand environmental factors such as temperature and humidity of their habitat. This study predicted current and future habitat suitability models for understanding the distribution of M. seperata and C. medinalis. Occurrence data, SSPs (Shared Socio-economic Pathways) scenario, and RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) were applied to MaxEnt (Maximum Entropy), a machine learning model among SDM (Species Distribution Model). As a result, M. seperata and C. medinalis are aggregated on the west and south coasts where they have a host after migration from China. As a result of MaxEnt analysis, the contribution was high in the order of Land-cover data and DEM (Digital Elevation Model). In bioclimatic variables, BIO_4 (Temperature seasonality) was high in M. seperata and BIO_2 (Mean Diurnal Range) was found in C. medinalis. The habitat suitability model predicted that M. seperata and C. medinalis could inhabit most rice paddies.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.52 no.4
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• pp.427-430
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• 2013

Recently, climate change scenarios were substituted by the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP). Using the RCP scenario, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) produced new climate change scenarios. Further, the National Institute of Meteorological Research (NIMR) of Korea produced new climate change scenarios for the Korean Peninsula. In this study, emergence time of small brown planthopper (SBPH), Laodelphax striatellus and the number of generations a year were estimated during climatic normal year (1981-2010) with previous studies and they were predicted during 2050s (2045-2054) and 2090s (2085-2094) by means of RCP8.5 climate change scenario. In comparison with $176.0{\pm}0.97$ Julian data in the climatic normal year, the emergence time of overwintering SBPH was predicted to be $13.2{\pm}0.18$ days ($162.8{\pm}0.91$ Julian date) earlier in 2050s and $32.1{\pm}0.61$ days ($143.9{\pm}1.08$ Julian date) earlier in 2090s. The SBPH was expected to produce an additional $2.0{\pm}0.02$ generations in 2050s and $5.2{\pm}0.06$ generations in 2090s.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Urban Environment
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.419-428
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• 2018

This study is aimed at estimating and mitigating the impact of urban development on watershed hydrology for new town experienced with dramatical change of land use from rural to urban. The climate change scenario, representative concentration pathway (RCP), revealed direct response of runoff depth to precipitation, which increased until year 2100. The types of areas for urban use in addition to climate change affected the efficiencies of bioretention, applied as a low impact development (LID). Combining different areas for urban use suggested that a possible approach to mitigate the urban development impact on watershed hydrology by supplementing captured rainfall potential from area to area and attenuating peak discharge and retarding its time of concentration.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.37 no.6
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• pp.965-972
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• 2017

Assessment of vulnerability of water use to climate change include a variety of climate change scenarios. However, in most future vulnerability studies, only the climate change scenarios are used and not the future scenarios of social and economic indicators. Therefore, in this study, we applied the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) climate change scenario and Shared Socioeconomic reference Pathway (SSP) developed by IPCC to reflect the future. We selected indicators for estimating the vulnerability of water use, and indices were integrated with a multi-criteria decision making approach - Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS). The indicator data utilized national statistics and reports, social and economic scenarios, and simulated results from the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model which reflects climate change scenario. Finally, we derived the rankings of water use vulnerability for the short-term future (2020) and mid-term future (2050) within the Han River watershed. Generally, considering climate change alone and considering climate change plus social and economic changes showed a similar spatial distribution. In the future scenarios, the watershed rankings were similar, but showed differences with SSP scenario in some watersheds. Therefore, considering social and economic changes is expected to contribute to more effective responses to climate change.

• Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.120-139
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• 2020

This study is to assess the future agricultural land use and climate change impacts on irrigation water requirement using CLUE-s(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 HadGEM3-RA(Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 3 Regional Atmosphere) scenario. For Nonsan city(55,517.9ha), the rice paddy, upland crop, and greenhouse cultivation were considered for agricultural land uses and DIROM(Daily Irrigation Reservoir Operation Model) was applied to benefited areas of Tapjeong reservoir (5,713.3ha) for Irrigation Water Requirement(IWR) estimation. For future land use change simulation, the CLUE-s used land uses of 2007, 2013, and 2019 from Ministry of Environment(MOE) and 6 classes(water, urban, rice paddy, upland crop, forest, and greenhouse cultivation). In 2100, the rice paddy and upland crop areas decreased 5.0% and 7.6%, and greenhouse cultivation area increased 24.7% compared to 2013. For the future climate change scenario considering agricultural land use change, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 2090s(2090~2099) IWR decreased 2.1% and 1.0% for rice paddy and upland crops, and increased 11.4% for greenhouse cultivation compared to pure application of future climate change scenario.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.7
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• pp.585-597
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• 2018

This study aims to investigate the variation of water quality and discharge under the condition of climate change and Best Management Practices (BMPs), which is one of the reduction methods for non-point source pollution. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is applied to case in Cheongmicheon watershed. The coefficients required for SWAT model were calibrated using SWAT Calibration and Uncertainty Program. Climate change is considered by using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. It is known from simulation results that the non-point source pollutant increases under the climate change scenario assuming worse condition. It is also found in this study that an appropriate application of BMPs is able to reduce the quantity and temporal variation of non-point source pollutant effectively.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.35-44
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• 2015

Forests contain a huge amount of carbon (C) and climate change could affect forest C dynamics. This study was conducted to predict the C dynamics of Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis forests, which are the most dominant needleleaf and broadleaf forests in Korea, using the Korean Forest Soil Carbon (KFSC) model under the two climate change scenarios (2012-2100; Constant Temperature (CT) scenario and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario). To construct simulation unit, the forest land areas for those two species in the 5th National Forest Inventory (NFI) data were sorted by administrative district and stand age class. The C pools were initialized at 2012, and any disturbance was not considered during the simulation period. Although the forest C stocks of two species generally increased over time, the forest C stocks under the RCP 8.5 scenario were less than those stocks under the CT scenario. The C stocks of P. densiflora forests increased from 260.4 Tg C in 2012 to 395.3 (CT scenario) or 384.1 Tg C (RCP 8.5 scenario) in 2100. For Q. variabilis forests, the C stocks increased from 124.4 Tg C in 2012 to 219.5 (CT scenario) or 204.7 (RCP 8.5 scenario) Tg C in 2100. Compared to 5th NFI data, the initial value of C stocks in dead organic matter C pools seemed valid. Accordingly, the annual C sequestration rates of the two species over the simulation period under the RCP 8.5 scenario (65.8 and $164.2g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis) were lower than those values under the CT scenario (71.1 and $193.5g\;C\;m^{-2}\;yr^{-1}$ for P. densiflora and Q. variabilis). We concluded that the C sequestration potential of P. densiflora and Q. variabilis forests could be decreased by climate change. Although there were uncertainties from parameters and model structure, this study could contribute to elucidating the C dynamics of South Korean forests in future.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.410-410
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• 2022

기후변화에 관한 정부간 협의체(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC)에서는 지난해부터 제6차 평가보고서(Sixth Assessment Report, AR6)를 준비하고 있으며, 최근 Working Group II에서 수행한 기후변화 영향, 적응 및 취약성(Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability) 보고서를 공개하였다. 보고서는 기존의 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 시나리오에 사회경제적 조건을 추가로 고려한 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 시나리오를 제시하였고, 세계기후연구프로그램(World Climate Research Programme, WCRP)의 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)에서 제공하는 6단계(Phase 6) 미래 전망 자료를 적용하였다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화로 인한 미래 극한 강우량의 통계적 특성을 파악하기 위하여 CMIP6에서 제공하는 General Circulation Models (GCMs) 기반 미래 강우자료를 수집하여 부산광역시를 중심으로 분석하였다. 4개의 SSP (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, SSP585) 시나리오별로 10개 GCMs의 모의 결과를 사용하였다. Gumbel 분포형과 확률가중모멘트법을 이용하여 미래 극한 강우량을 산정하였고, 현재 모의기간(S0, 1983-2014) 대비 미래 전망기간(S1, 2015-2044; S2, 2041-2070; S3, 2071-2100)의 변화를 재현기간(return period, T)별로 분석하여 제시하였다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural Science
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• v.48 no.3
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• pp.433-446
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• 2021

In this study, the future flood inundation changes under a climate change were simulated in the Tonle Sap basin in Cambodia, one of the countries with high vulnerability to climate change. For the flood inundation simulation using the rainfall-runoff-inundation (RRI) model, globally available geological data (digital elevation model [DEM]; hydrological data and maps based on Shuttle elevation derivatives [HydroSHED]; land cover: Global land cover facility-moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer [GLCF-MODIS]), rainfall data (Asian precipitation-highly-resolved observational data integration towards evaluation [APHRODITE]), climate change scenario (HadGEM3-RA), and observational water level (Kratie, Koh Khel, Neak Luong st.) were constructed. The future runoff from the Kratie station, the upper boundary condition of the RRI model, was constructed to be predicted using the long short-term memory (LSTM) model. Based on the results predicted by the LSTM model, a total of 4 cases were selected (representative concentration pathway [RCP] 4.5: 2035, 2075; RCP 8.5: 2051, 2072) with the largest annual average runoff by period and scenario. The results of the analysis of the future flood inundation in the Tonle Sap basin were compared with the results of previous studies. Unlike in the past, when the change in the depth of inundation changed to a range of about 1 to 10 meters during the 1997 - 2005 period, it occurred in a range of about 5 to 9 meters during the future period. The results show that in the future RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the variability of discharge is reduced compared to the past and that climate change could change the runoff patterns of the Tonle Sap basin.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.103 no.1
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• pp.105-112
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• 2014

The main purpose of this study is to measure spatio-temporal variation of forest tree volume based on the RCP(Representative Concentration Pathway) 8.5 scenario, targeting on Pinus densiflora forests which is the main tree species in South Korea. To estimate nationwide scale, $5^{th}$ forest type map and National Forest Inventory data were used. Also, to reflect the impact of change in place and climate on growth of forest trees, growth model reflecting the climate and topography features were applied. The result of the model validation, which compared the result of the model with the forest statistics of different cities and provinces, showed a high suitability. Considering the continuous climate change, volume of Pinus densiflora forest is predicted to increase from $131m^3/ha$ at present to $212.42m^3/ha$ in the year of 2050. If the climate maintains as the present, volume is predicted to increase to $221.92m^3/ha$. With the climate change, it is predicted that most of the region, except for some of the alpine region, will have a decrease in growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest. The growth rate of Pinus densiflora forest will have a greater decline, especially in the coastal area and the southern area. With the result of this study, it will be possible to quantify the effect of climate change on the growth of Pinus densiflora forest according to spatio-temporal is possible. The result of the study can be useful in establishing the forest management practices, considering the adaptation of climate change.