• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative Uncertainty

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Measurement System of Bidirectional Reflectance-distribution Function (양방향 반사율 분포함수 측정시스템)

  • Hwang, Ji-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Optics and Photonics
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.46-52
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    • 2010
  • A theory of bidirectional reflectance-distribution function (BRDF), a newly developed BRDF measurement system, and a method for evaluating the uncertainty of BRDF measurements are presented. The BRDF measurement system which measures BRDF in a wavelength range of (380~1500) nm with an angle range of $(-75{\sim}75)^{\circ}$ was installed. The measurement uncertainties, consisting of correlated terms and uncorrelated terms, were evaluated for the BRDF measurement system, resulting in the relative expanded uncertainty less than 3% (k=2).

Precise Determination of Silicon in Ceramic Reference Materials by Prompt Gamma Activation Analysis at JRR-3

  • Miura, Tsutomu;Matsue, Hideaki
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.48 no.2
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    • pp.299-303
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    • 2016
  • Prompt gamma activation analysis using a thermal neutron-guided beam at Japan Atomic Energy Agency JRR-3M was applied for the precise determination of Si in silicon nitride ceramic reference materials [Japan Ceramic Reference Material (JCRM) R 003]. In this study, the standard addition method coupled with internal standard was used for the nondestructive determination of Si in the sample. Cadmium was used as internal standard to obtain the linear calibration curves and to compensate for the neutron beam variability. The analytical result of determining Si in JCRM R 003 silicon nitride fine powder ceramic reference materials using prompt gamma activation analysis was in good agreement with that obtained by classical gravimetric analysis. The relative expanded measurement uncertainty (k = 2) associated with the determined value was 2.4%.

Are theoretically calculated periods of vibration for skeletal structures error-free?

  • Mehanny, Sameh S.F.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.17-35
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    • 2012
  • Simplified equations for fundamental period of vibration of skeletal structures provided by most seismic design provisions suffer from the absence of any associated confidence levels and of any reference to their empirical basis. Therefore, such equations may typically give a sector of designers the false impression of yielding a fairly accurate value of the period of vibration. This paper, although not addressing simplified codes equations, introduces a set of mathematical equations utilizing the theory of error propagation and First-Order Second-Moment (FOSM) techniques to determine bounds on the relative error in theoretically calculated fundamental period of vibration of skeletal structures. In a complementary step, and for verification purposes, Monte Carlo simulation technique has been also applied. The latter, despite involving larger computational effort, is expected to provide more precise estimates than FOSM methods. Studies of parametric uncertainties applied to reinforced concrete frame bents - potentially idealized as SDOF systems - are conducted demonstrating the effect of randomness and uncertainty of various relevant properties, shaping both mass and stiffness, on the variance (i.e. relative error) in the estimated period of vibration. Correlation between mass and stiffness parameters - regarded as random variables - is also thoroughly discussed. According to achieved results, a relative error in the period of vibration in the order of 19% for new designs/constructions and of about 25% for existing structures for assessment purposes - and even climbing up to about 36% in some special applications and/or circumstances - is acknowledged when adopting estimates gathered from the literature for relative errors in the relevant random input variables.

Comparison of Characteristics and Dispersion of Fasting Blood Glucose Data by Administrative Districts and Gender Difference Using the 2017 'Korean Blood Glucose Reference Standard' (2017 '한국인 혈당 참조표준'을 이용한 행정구역별 남녀별 공복 혈당 데이터의 특성 및 산포성 비교)

  • Kwon, Young-Il
    • Korean Journal of Clinical Laboratory Science
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    • v.52 no.1
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    • pp.28-35
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    • 2020
  • This study aimed to investigate the differences in the upper and lower limits of the 95% distribution of fasting blood glucose (FBG) by age groups. We also analyzed the changes in the mean values and dispersion of the data using the Korean Blood Glucose Reference Standard raw data published by the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS). Furthermore, the trends among 16 administrative districts were analyzed and any gender differences were determined. We also assessed whether the study results correlated with the relative standard uncertainty, as published by the NHIS. On the dispersion analysis using the differences between the upper and lower limits of the 95% distribution of FBG by age group, there were significant differences across gender and administrative districts (P<0.05). The gender differences in FBG measurements, as published by the NHIS, were significant across different administrative districts and age groups (P<0.001). This confirmed the need to recalculate the blood glucose reference standards for men and women. No significant correlation was observed between the relative standard uncertainty, as published by NHIS, and the dispersion and number of measurements analyzed in this study. However, it showed a high correlation with the measured mean value (R2=0.95). Therefore, further research on the reference standard and uncertainty is needed.

Measurement Uncertainty of Arsenic Concentration in Ambient PM2.5 Determined by Instrumental Neutron Activation Analysis (기기 중성자방사화분석을 이용한 대기 중 PM2.5 내 Arsenic 농도 분석의 측정 불확도)

  • Lim, Jong-Myoung;Lee, Jin-Hong;Moon, Jong-Wha;Chung, Yong-Sam
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.30 no.11
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    • pp.1123-1131
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    • 2008
  • In this study, measurement uncertainty of instrumental neutron activation analysis was evaluated for ambient As concentration in PM2.5. Expanded uncertainties of the measurements were calculated by applying both ISO-GUM approximation and Monte Carlo Simulation(MCS). The estimate of As concentration on a specific day by the Monte Carlo Simulation differed from that of ISO-GUM approximation by less than 4%. Relative expanded uncertainties of As concentrations from a total number of 60 PM2.5 samples were also estimated to be more or less than 10% with 95% confidence level using the Monte Carlo Simulation. Sensitivity test of the measurement uncertainties showed that $\gamma$-ray counting error(62.3%), efficiency(18.5%), air volume(12.3%), neutron flux(2.3%), and absolute gamma-intensity(1.8%) are major factors of uncertainty variations.

Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale: Construct validity of Prospective and Inhibitory factor structure (불확실성에 대한 인내력 부족 척도: 전향적·억제적 요인의 구인 타당도 검증)

  • Choi, Hyo Sun;Kim, Eun-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.21 no.9
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    • pp.338-344
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    • 2020
  • Intolerance of Uncertainty is associated with numerous psychopathologies, including generalized anxiety disorders. However, several studies differ in the factor structures applicable for the Intolerance of Uncertainty Scale (IUS), and there exists a debate regarding the factorial and construct validity. Thus, in the current study, the IUS was newly translated to explore and verify the structures and factors relative to the cultural background of Korea. The study involved an exploratory factor analysis of randomly extracted data from 260 of 533 adults selected. Results determined that a prospective factor of 3 items and inhibitory factor of 5 items was appropriate. In addition, a confirmatory factor analysis and correlation analysis of the remaining 273 data revealed that a structural model comprising of the 8-items two factors model was well suited (x2=37.699, TLI=0.951, CFI=0.969, RMSEA=0.063, SRMR=0.039), and showed significant static correlation with worry, depression, and state-trait anxiety.

Evaluation of Reference Evapotranspiration in South Korea according to CMIP5 GCMs and Estimation Methods (CMIP5 GCMs과 추정 방법에 따른 우리나라 기준증발산량 평가)

  • Park, Jihoon;Cho, Jaepil;Lee, Eun-Jeong;Jung, Imgook
    • Journal of Korean Society of Rural Planning
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.153-168
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    • 2017
  • The main objective of this study was to assess reference evapotranspiration based on multiple GCMs (General Circulation Models) and estimation methods. In this study, 10 GCMs based on the RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 scenario were used to estimate reference evapotranspiration. 54 ASOS (Automated Synoptic Observing System) data were constructed by statistical downscaling techniques. The meteorological variables of precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation were produced using GCMs. For the past and future periods, we estimated reference evapotranspiration by GCMs and analyzed the statistical characteristics and analyzed its uncertainty. Five methods (BC: Blaney-Criddle, HS: Hargreaves-Samani, MK: Makkink, MS: Matt-Shuttleworth, and PM: Penman-Monteith) were selected to analyze the uncertainty by reference evapotranspiration estimation methods. We compared the uncertainty of reference evapotranspiration method by the variable expansion and analyzed which variables greatly influence reference evapotranspiration estimation. The posterior probabilities of five methods were estimated as BC: 0.1792, HS: 0.1775, MK: 0.2361, MS: 0.2054, and PM: 0.2018. The posterior probability indicated how well reference evapotranspiration estimated with 10 GCMs for five methods reflected the estimated reference evapotranspiration using the observed data. Through this study, we analyzed the overall characteristics of reference evapotranspiration according to GCMs and reference evapotranspiration estimation methods The results of this study might be used as a basic data for preparing the standard method of reference evapotranspiration to derive the water management method under climate change.

Land-use Change Assessment by Permanent Sample Plots in National Forest Inventory (국가산림자원조사 고정표본점 자료를 이용한 토지이용변화 평가)

  • Yim, Jong-Su;Kim, Rae Hyun;Lee, Sun Jeoung;Son, Yeong Mo
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2015
  • Forests are to be recognized as an important carbon sink under the UNFCCC that consist of above- and below-biomass, dead organic matter (DOM) such as dead wood and litter, and soil organic matter (SOM). In order to asses for DOM and SOM, however, it is relevant to land-use change matrices over last 20 years for each land-use category. In this study, a land-use change matrix was produced and its uncertainty was assessed using a point sampling technique with permanent sample plots in national forest inventory at Chungbuk province. With point sampling estimated areas at 2012 year for each land-use category were significantly similar to the true areas by given six land-use categories. Relative standard error in terms of uncertainty of land-use change among land-use categories ranged in 4.3~44.4%, excluding the other land. Forest and cropland covered relatively large areas showed lower uncertainty compared to the other land-use categories. This result showed that selected permanent samples in the NFI are able to support for producing land-use change matrix at a national or province level. If the $6^{th}$ NFI data are fully collected, the uncertainty of estimated area should be improved.

The Effect of Emotional Certainty on Attitudes in Advertising

  • Bok, Sang Yong;Min, Dongwon
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.57-75
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    • 2013
  • It is a well-established theory that emotion is influential in cognitive processing. Extensive prior research on emotion has shown that emotional factors, such as affect, mood, and feeling, play as information indicating whether he or she has enough knowledge. Most of their findings focused on the effect of emotional valence (i.g., one's subjective positivity or negativity related with the emotion). Recently, several studies on emotion suggest that there is another dimension of emotion, which affects the type of cognitive processing. The studies argue that emotional certainty facilitates heuristic processing, whereas emotional uncertainty promotes systematic processing. Based on the findings, current study examines the effect of certainty on attitudes and recall. Specifically, the authors investigate the effect of certainty on how much effort individuals use to process advertising information and how certainty affects attitude formation toward the advertised product. The authors also focus on recall to clarify the working mechanism of certainty on attitudes, because recall performance reflects the depth of information processing. Based on previous findings, the authors hypothesize that uncertainty (vs. certainty) leads to more favorable attitudes as well as better recall, and conduct an experiment using a fictitious advertisement with 218 participants. The results confirm the predicted effects of certainty only on attitudes not recall. A possible explanation of this discrepancy between attitudes and recall lies in the measurement method, unaided recall. To rule out this possibility, the authors perform an additional analysis with the participants who recall any correct information of the target advertisement. The results show certainty has a negative effect on both attitudes and recall. A bootstrapping test reveals that recall mediates the effect of certainty on attitudes. This result confirms that certainty decreases elaboration, which in turn leads to less favorable attitudes relative to uncertainty. Additionally, our data shows the association among certainty, recall, and attitudes by showing the indirect effect of certainty on attitudes via recall. This research encourages practitioners in the field to emphasize that they should focus on target audiences' emotional certainty before they provide the persuasive message, by showing that uncertainty promotes effortful processing, which in turn leads to better memory and more favorable attitudes.

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Fuzzy DEA under Uncertainty (불확실한 상황하에서의 효율성 평가를 위한 DEA)

  • Choi, Hong;Sohn, So-Young
    • Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.36-47
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    • 2000
  • DEA has been effectively applied to various areas which need the evaluation of relative efficiency. We propose a DEA model based on fuzzy LP in order to consider uncertain synergy effects due to M&A of existing organization. We apply the suggested approach to forecasting the efficiency of merged academic departments in a university in Korea. We expect that our approach can be utilized to effectively realign existing departments.

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