• Title/Summary/Keyword: Relative Uncertainty

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Future Sea Level Projections over the Seas Around Korea from CMIP5 Simulations (CMIP5 자료를 활용한 우리나라 미래 해수면 상승)

  • Heo, Tae-Kyung;Kim, Youngmi;Boo, Kyung-On;Byun, Young-Hwa;Cho, Chunho
    • Atmosphere
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.25-35
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    • 2018
  • This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

Ozone Simulations over the Seoul Metropolitan Area for a 2007 June Episode, Part I: Evaluating Volatile Organic Compounds Emissions Speciated for the SAPRC99 Chemical Mechanism (2007년 6월 수도권 오존모사 I - 광화학측정자료를 이용한 SAPRC99 화학종별 휘발성유기물질 배출량 입력자료 평가)

  • Kim, Soon-Tae
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.27 no.5
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    • pp.580-602
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    • 2011
  • Volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions in the 2007 CAPSS (Clean Air Protection Supporting System) emissions inventory are chemically speciated for the SAPRC99 (Statewide Air Pollution Research Center 99) mechanism, following the Source Classification Code (SCC) matching method to borrow the U.S.EPA's chemical speciation profiles. CMAQ simulations with High-order Direct Decoupled Method (HDDM) are in turn applied to evaluate uncertainty in the method by comparing the simulated model VOC species to the observations in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA) for a 2007 June episode. Simulations under-predicted ALK1 to ALK4 in SAPRC99 by a factor of 2 to 5 and over-predicted ALK5 by a factor of 7.5 while ARO1, ARO2, OLE1, and ethylene (ETH) are comparable to the observations, showing relative difference by 10 to 30%. OLE2 emissions are roughly 4 times overestimated. Emission rates for individual VOC model species are revised referring to the ratio of simulated to observed concentrations. Impact of the VOC emission changes on the overall ozone prediction was insignificant for the days of which 1-hr maximum ozone are lower than 100 ppb. However, simulations showed ozone difference by 5 to 10 ppb when high ozone above 120 ppb was observed in the vicinity of Seoul. This result suggests that evaluations on individual model VOC emissions be necessary to lead ozone control plans to the right direction. Moreover, the simulated ratios of ARO1 and ARO2 to $NO_x$ are roughly 50% lower than the observed ones, which imply that adjustment in $NO_x$ and VOC emission rates may be required to mimic the real VOC/$NO_x$ condition over the area.

Development of Isotope Dilution LC-MS/MS Method for Accurate Determination of Arsenobetaine in Oyster Certified Reference Material

  • Lee, Woo Young;Yim, Yong-Hyeon;Hwang, Euijin;Lim, Youngran;Kim, Tae Kyu;Lee, Kyoung-Seok
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.35 no.3
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    • pp.821-827
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    • 2014
  • An isotope dilution liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (ID LC-MS/MS) method has been developed and applied to the determination of arsenobetaine (AsB, ${(CH_3)_3}^+AsCH_2COO^-$) from oyster candidate certified reference material (CRM). The exact matching isotope dilution approach was adopted for accurate determination of AsB using $^{13}C_2$-labeled AsB as an internal standard. Efficiencies of different AsB extraction methods were evaluated using a codfish reference material and a simple sonication method was selected as the method of choice for the certification of the oyster candidate CRM. The hydrophilic interaction liquid chromatography (HILIC) combined with electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (ESI/MS/MS) in selected reaction monitoring (SRM) mode was optimized for adequate chromatographic retention and robust quantification of AsB from codfish and oyster samples. By analyzing 12 subsamples taken from each 12 bottles systematically selected from the whole oyster CRM batch, the certified value of AsB was determined as $6.60mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}{\pm}0.31mg{\cdot}kg^{-1}$ and it showed excellent between-bottle homogeneity of less than 0.42%, which is represented by relative standard deviation of 12 bottles from the CRM batch. The major source of uncertainty was the certified value of the AsB standard solution.

Estimation of Mass Discrimination Factor for a Wide Range of m/z by Argon Artificial Isotope Mixtures and NF3 Gas

  • Min, Deullae;Lee, Jin Bok;Lee, Christopher;Lee, Dong Soo;Kim, Jin Seog
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.35 no.8
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    • pp.2403-2409
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    • 2014
  • Absolute isotope ratio is a critical constituent in determination of atomic weight. To measure the absolute isotope ratio using a mass spectrometer, mass discrimination factor, $f_{MD}$, is needed to convert measured isotope ratio to real isotope ratio of gas molecules. If the $f_{MD}$ could be predicted, absolute isotope ratio of a chemical species would be measureable in absence of its enriched isotope pure materials or isotope references. This work employed gravimetrically prepared isotope mixtures of argon (Ar) to obtain $f_{MD}$ at m/z of 40 in the magnetic sector type gas mass spectrometer (gas/MS). Besides, we compare the nitrogen isotope ratio of nitrogen trifluoride ($NF_3$) with that of nitrogen molecule ($N_2$) decomposed from the same $NF_3$ thermally in order to identify the difference of $f_{MD}$ values in extensive m/z region from 28 to 71. Our result shows that $f_{MD}$ at m/z 40 was $-0.044%{\pm}0.017%$ (k = 1) from measurement of Ar artificial isotope mixtures. The $f_{MD}$ difference in the range of m/z from 28 to 71 is observed $-0.12%{\pm}0.14%$ from $NF_3$ and $N_2$. From combination of this work and reported $f_{MD}$ values by another team, IRMM, if $f_{MD}$ of $-0.16%{\pm}0.14%$ is applied to isotope ratio measurement from $N_2$ to $SF_6$, we can determine absolute isotope ratio within relative uncertainty of 0.2 %.

Development of a Probabilistic Safety Assessment Framework for an Interim Dry Storage Facility Subjected to an Aircraft Crash Using Best-Estimate Structural Analysis

  • Almomani, Belal;Jang, Dongchan;Lee, Sanghoon;Kang, Hyun Gook
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.49 no.2
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    • pp.411-425
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    • 2017
  • Using a probabilistic safety assessment, a risk evaluation framework for an aircraft crash into an interim spent fuel storage facility is presented. Damage evaluation of a detailed generic cask model in a simplified building structure under an aircraft impact is discussed through a numerical structural analysis and an analytical fragility assessment. Sequences of the impact scenario are shown in a developed event tree, with uncertainties considered in the impact analysis and failure probabilities calculated. To evaluate the influence of parameters relevant to design safety, risks are estimated for three specification levels of cask and storage facility structures. The proposed assessment procedure includes the determination of the loading parameters, reference impact scenario, structural response analyses of facility walls, cask containment, and fuel assemblies, and a radiological consequence analysis with dose-risk estimation. The risk results for the proposed scenario in this study are expected to be small relative to those of design basis accidents for best-estimated conservative values. The importance of this framework is seen in its flexibility to evaluate the capability of the facility to withstand an aircraft impact and in its ability to anticipate potential realistic risks; the framework also provides insight into epistemic uncertainty in the available data and into the sensitivity of the design parameters for future research.

Comparative Analysis of ADCP Flow Measurement According to River Bed Material (하상재료에 따른 ADCP의 유량측정 비교 분석)

  • Choi, Jin-Woo;Hong, Chang-Su;Shin, Kyung-Yong;Lee, Jin Uk;Kim, Jeong-ae;Cho, Yong-Chul;Yu, Soon-Ju
    • Ecology and Resilient Infrastructure
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.156-162
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    • 2018
  • This research aimed at analyzing comparison results between in gravel and sand bed with respect to the detailed Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurement in a velocity, depth, and flow rate data based on Acoustic Doppler Velocimeter (ADV) measurement result. Conclusionally, similar results were shown for gravel and sand bed in velocity, depth and flow rate data using ADV and ADCP measurement. The results of the flow rate show a relative error mean of 3.5 - 4.8% in the gravel bed and 0.02 - 3.2% in the sand bed, which is better performance than the mean error of 5% suggested by United States Geological Survey (USGS). The results can be used as a basis data for the measurement of ADCP and potentially able to be utilized for the more detailed uncertainty analysis of ADCP flow rate measurement.

Comparative Study on Microwave Probes for Plasma Density Measurement by FDTD Simulations

  • Kim, D.W.;You, S.J.;Na, B.K.;Kim, J.H.;Chang, H.Y.;Oh, W.Y.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Vacuum Society Conference
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    • 2014.02a
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    • pp.218.1-218.1
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    • 2014
  • In order to measure the absolute plasma density, various probes are proposed and investigated and microwave probes are widely used for its advantages (Insensitivity to thin non-conducting material deposited by processing plasmas, High reliability, Simple process for determination of plasma density, no complicate assumptions and so forth). There are representative microwave probes such as the cutoff probe, the hairpin probe, the impedance probe, the absorption probe and the plasma transmission probe. These probes utilize the microwave interactions with the plasma-sheath and inserted structure (probe), but frequency range used by each probe and specific mechanisms for determining the plasma density for each probe are different. In the recent studies, behaviors of each microwave probe with respect to the plasma parameters of the plasma density, the pressure (the collision frequency), and the sheath width is abundant and reasonably investigated, whereas relative diagnostic characteristics of the probes by a comparative study is insufficient in spite of importance for comprehensive applications of the probes. However, experimental comparative study suffers from spatially different plasma characteristics in the same discharge chamber, a low-reproducibility of ignited plasma for an uncertainty in external discharge parameters (the power, the pressure, the flow rate and so forth), impossibility of independently control of the density, the pressure, and the sheath width as well as expensive and complicate experimental setup. In this paper, various microwave probes are simulated by finite-different time-domain simulation and the error between the input plasma density in FDTD simulations and the measured that by the unique microwave spectrums of each probe is obtained under possible conditions of plasma density, pressure, and sheath width for general low-temperature plasmas. This result shows that the each probe has an optimum applicable plasma condition and reliability of plasma density measurement using the microwave probes can be improved by the complementary use of each probe.

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CGE 모형을 이용한 다목적댐 운영의 경제파급효과분석: 용수공급기능을 중심으로

  • Jeong, Gi-Ho;Kim, Jae-Hyeon
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.129-156
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    • 2012
  • This study analyzes the contribution to the national economy of the stable water supply through managing multi-purpose dam. For the analysis, we consider 17 major multi-purpose dams and build a CGE model with summer water and winter water being the production factors as the base year of 2007. We analyze the economic impact of meeting water demand due to the dam management and estimate the risk premium of reducing the uncertainty of water supply. The analysis results show a significant production decrease in the industries of agriculture, forestry and fisheries and tap water as well as the food and beverage industry using the former industries' output as intermediates in the production and show an production increase largely in steel industry and electronic and electrical industries. Being compared to the benchmark solution, GNP is analyzed as being reduced by 0.22~0.68%. Meanwhile, the risk premium is estimated to be about 4 billion to 24 billion won for the value 01 the measure of relative risk aversion in the range 01 0.5 to 3.0.

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A Fuzzy QFD Approach to the Determination of Importance Weights of Nuclear Quality Assurance Requirements (퍼지 QFD를 이용한 원자력 품질보증 요건의 중요도 결정)

  • Park, Chan-Gook;Choi, Gi-Ryun
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.128-148
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    • 2007
  • Quality assurance (QA) for nuclear R&D project is very concerned about the poor economy due to the improper selection of QA requirements. This paper proposes a new methodology for determining the relative importance weights of QA requirements considering the attributes of nuclear R&D project. QFD (Quality Function Deployment) is used as a conceptual framework and fuzzy number is introduced to capture the vagueness uncertainty existing in human judgement. Also we use a confidence attitude of decision-maker in order to improve the reliability of extracted attribute level of R&D project. Case study on a nuclear R&D project and scenario analysis are carried out to verify the usefulness and effectiveness of proposed methodology.

A Study on the Evaluation Methods of Residual Flux Cleaning Ability by Alternative Semi-Aqueous Cleaners Using Metal Test Tools After Soldering with Solder Paste (솔더페이스트로 솔더링 후 잔류 플럭스 오염물에 대한 준수계 세정제의 금속치구를 이용한 세정성능 평가방법 연구)

  • Lee, Dong-Kee
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2008
  • In this study, in order to develop evaluation method of the cleaning efficiency of residual flux which remains on the surface after soldering with solder paste, a specially designed metal tool is used to reduce spread uncertainty of flux while soldering. Using this tool, the measurement of cleaning efficiency of flux after soldering for some typical alternative semi-aqueous cleaners and 1,1,1-TCE by weighing method was conducted. As the test result of cleaning efficiency for each cleaner at several different cleaning times, the precision of the data is confirmed to within about 4% relative standard deviation (RSD) range. So, it is considered that this would be a good evaluation method for evaluating the cleaning efficiency of the residual flux which remains after solder paste soldering in the alternative cleaning. The results of this test method shows that the cleaning efficiency of ST 100SX and Neozal 750H in the cleaning of residual flux was better than other semi-aqueous cleaners, but its cleaning efficiency was clearly inferior to 1,1,1-TCE.

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