• 대한전기학회논문지
• /
• 제43권5호
• /
• pp.730-738
• /
• 1994

The major advantage of the short-term load forecasting technique using general exponential smoothing is high accuracy and operational simplicity, but it makes large forecasting error when the load changes repidly. The paper has presented new technique to improve those shortcomings, and according to forecasted the technique proved to be valid for two years. The structure of load model is time function which consists of daily-and temperature-deviation component. The average of standard percentage erro in daily forecasting for two years was 2.02%, and this forecasting technique has improved standard erro by 0.46%. As relative coefficient for daily and seasonal forecasting is 0.95 or more, this technique proved to be valid.

• 한국농공학회지
• /
• 제19권1호
• /
• pp.4279-4295
• /
• 1977

Two types of model were established in order to product the soil moisture content by which information on irrigation could be obtained. Model-I was to represent the soil moisture depletion and was established based on the concept of water balance in a given soil profile. Model-II was a mathematical model derived from the analysis of soil moisture variation curves which were drawn from the observed data. In establishing the Model-I, the method and procedure to estimate parameters for the determination of the variables such as evapotranspirations, effective rainfalls, and drainage amounts were discussed. Empirical equations representing soil moisture variation curves were derived from the observed data as the Model-II. The procedure for forecasting timing and amounts of irrigation under the given soil moisture content was discussed. The established models were checked by comparing the observed data with those predicted by the model. Obtained results are summarized as follows: 1. As a water balance model of a given soil profile, the soil moisture depletion D, could be represented as the equation(2). 2. Among the various empirical formulae for potential evapotranspiration (Etp), Penman's formula was best fit to the data observed with the evaporation pans and tanks in Suweon area. High degree of positive correlation between Penman's predicted data and observed data with a large evaporation pan was confirmed. and the regression enquation was Y=0.7436X+17.2918, where Y represents evaporation rate from large evaporation pan, in mm/10days, and X represents potential evapotranspiration rate estimated by use of Penman's formula. 3. Evapotranspiration, Et, could be estimated from the potential evapotranspiration, Etp, by introducing the consumptive use coefficient, Kc, which was repre sensed by the following relationship: Kc=Kco$.$Ka＋Ks‥‥‥(Eq. 6) where Kco : crop coefficient Ka : coefficient depending on the soil moisture content Ks : correction coefficient a. Crop coefficient. Kco. Crop coefficients of barley, bean, and wheat for each growth stage were found to be dependent on the crop. b. Coefficient depending on the soil moisture content, Ka. The values of Ka for clay loam, sandy loam, and loamy sand revealed a similar tendency to those of Pierce type. c. Correction coefficent, Ks. Following relationships were established to estimate Ks values: Ks=Kc-Kco$.$Ka, where Ks=0 if Kc,=Kco$.$K0$\geq$1.0, otherwise Ks=1-Kco$.$Ka 4. Effective rainfall, Re, was estimated by using following relationships : Re=D, if R-D$\geq$0, otherwise, Re=R 5. The difference between rainfall, R, and the soil moisture depletion D, was taken as drainage amount, Wd. {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=1} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} if Wd=0, otherwise, {{{{D= SUM from { {i }=tf} to n (Et-Re-I+Wd)}}}} where tf=2∼3 days. 6. The curves and their corresponding empirical equations for the variation of soil moisture depending on the soil types, soil depths are shown on Fig. 8 (a,b.c,d). The general mathematical model on soil moisture variation depending on seasons, weather, and soil types were as follow: {{{{SMC= SUM ( { C}_{i }Exp( { - lambda }_{i } { t}_{i } )+ { Re}_{i } - { Excess}_{i } )}}}} where SMC : soil moisture content C : constant depending on an initial soil moisture content $\lambda$ : constant depending on season t : time Re : effective rainfall Excess : drainage and excess soil moisture other than drainage. The values of $\lambda$ are shown on Table 1. 7. The timing and amount of irrigation could be predicted by the equation (9-a) and (9-b,c), respectively. 8. Under the given conditions, the model for scheduling irrigation was completed. Fig. 9 show computer flow charts of the model. a. To estimate a potential evapotranspiration, Penman's equation was used if a complete observed meteorological data were available, and Jensen-Haise's equation was used if a forecasted meteorological data were available, However none of the observed or forecasted data were available, the equation (15) was used. b. As an input time data, a crop carlender was used, which was made based on the time when the growth stage of the crop shows it's maximum effective leaf coverage. 9. For the purpose of validation of the models, observed data of soil moiture content under various conditions from May, 1975 to July, 1975 were compared to the data predicted by Model-I and Model-II. Model-I shows the relative error of 4.6 to 14.3 percent which is an acceptable range of error in view of engineering purpose. Model-II shows 3 to 16.7 percent of relative error which is a little larger than the one from the Model-I. 10. Comparing two models, the followings are concluded: Model-I established on the theoretical background can predict with a satisfiable reliability far practical use provided that forecasted meteorological data are available. On the other hand, Model-II was superior to Model-I in it's simplicity, but it needs long period and wide scope of observed data to predict acceptable soil moisture content. Further studies are needed on the Model-II to make it acceptable in practical use.

• 한국농공학회지
• /
• 제32권1호
• /
• pp.55-71
• /
• 1990

The purpose of this study is to find out the basic data for irrigation plans of red pepper and radish during the growing period, such as total amount of evapotranspiration, coefficent of evapotranspiration at each growth stage, the peak stage of evapotranspiration, the maximum ten day evapotranspiration , optimum irrigation point, total readily available moisture and intervals of irrigation date. The plots of experiment were arranged with split plot design which were composed of two factors, irrigation point for main plot and soil texture for split plot, and three levels ; irrigation point with pH1.7-2.0, pF2.1-2.4 and pF2.5-2.8, at soil texture of sandy soil, sandy loam and silty clay for both red pepper and radish, with two replications. The results obtained are summarized as follows. 1.1/10 exceedance probability values of maximum total pan evaporation during growing period for red peppr and radish were shown as 663.6 mm and 251.8 mm. respectively, and those of maximum ten day pan evaporation for red pepper and radish, 67.1 mm and 46.9 mm, respectively. 2.The time that annual maximum of ten day pan evaporation can he occurred, exists at any stage between the middle of May and the late of August for red pepper, and at any stage between the late of August and the late September for radish. 3.The magnitude of evapotranspiration and its coefficient for red pepper was occurred large in order of pF1.7-2.0 pF2.1-2.4 and pF2.5~2.8 in aspect of irrigation point and the difference in the magnitude of evapotranspiration and of its coefficient between levels of irrigation point was difficult to be found out due to the relative increase in water consumption resulted from large flourishing growth at the irrigation point in lower water content for radish. In aspect of soil texture they were appeared large in order of sandy loam, silty clay and sandy soil for both red pepper and radish. 4.The magnitude of leaf area index was shown large in order of pF2.1-2.4, pF2.5-2.8, and pFl.7-2.0, for red pepper and of pF2.5-2.8, pF2.1-2.4, pFl.7-2.0 for radish in aspect of irrigation point, and large in order of sandy loam, silty clay, sandy soil for both red pepper and radish in aspect of soil texture 5.1/10 exceedance probability value of evapotranspiration and its coefficient during the growing period for red pepper were shown as 683.5 mm and 1.03, respectively, while those of radish, 250.3 mm and 0, 99. respectively. 6.The time that the maximum evapotranspiration of red pepper can be occurred is in the middle of August around the date of ninetieth to hundredth after transplanting, and the time for radish is presumed to be in the late of September, around the date of thirtieth to fourtieth after sowing. At that time, 1/10 exceedance probability value of ten day evapotranspiration and its coefficient for red pepper is assumed to be 81.8 mm and 1.22, respectively, while those of radish, 49, 7 mm and 1, 06, respectively. 7.Optimum irrigation point for red pepper on the basis of the yield of raw matter is assumed to be pFl.7-2.0 for sandy soil, pF2.5-2.8 for sandy loam, and pF2.1-2.4 for silty clay. while that for radish is appeared to be pF2.5-2.8 in any soil texture used. 8.The soil moisture extraction patterns of red pepper and radish have shown that maximum extraction rates exist at 7 cm deep layer at the beginning stage of growth in any soil texture and that extraction rates of 21 cm to 35 cm deep layer are increased as getting closer to the late stage of growth. And especially the extraction rates have shown tendency to be greatest at 21cm deep layer from the most flourishing stage of growth for red pepper and at the last stage of growth for radish. 9.The total readily available moisture on the basic of the optimum irrigation point become 3.77-8.66 mm for sandy soil, 28.39-34.67 mm for sandy loam and 18.40-25.70 mm for silty clay for red pepper of each soil texture used but that of radish that has shown the optimum irrigation point of pF2.5-2.8 in any soil texture used. 12.49-15.27 mm for sandy soil, 23.03-28.13 mm for sandy loam, and 22.56~27.57 mm for silty clay. 10.On the basis of each optimum irrigation point. the intervals of irrigation date at the growth stage of maximum consumptive use of red pepper become l.4 days for sandy soil, 3.8 days for sandy loam and 2.6 days for silty clay, while those of radish, about 7.2 days.