• Title/Summary/Keyword: Regression Curve

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Characteristics and Prediction of Lung Cancer Mortality in China from 1991 to 2013

  • Fang, Jia-Ying;Dong, Hong-Li;Wu, Ku-Sheng;Du, Pei-Ling;Xu, Zhen-Xi;Lin, Kun
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.14
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    • pp.5829-5834
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    • 2015
  • Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

Use of an Artificial Neural Network to Predict Risk Factors of Nosocomial Infection in Lung Cancer Patients

  • Chen, Jie;Pan, Qin-Shi;Hong, Wan-Dong;Pan, Jingye;Zhang, Wen-Hui;Xu, Gang;Wang, Yu-Min
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.15 no.13
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    • pp.5349-5353
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    • 2014
  • Statistical methods to analyze and predict the related risk factors of nosocomial infection in lung cancer patients are various, but the results are inconsistent. A total of 609 patients with lung cancer were enrolled to allow factor comparison using Student's t-test or the Mann-Whitney test or the Chi-square test. Variables that were significantly related to the presence of nosocomial infection were selected as candidates for input into the final ANN model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the performance of the artificial neural network (ANN) model and logistic regression (LR) model. The prevalence of nosocomial infection from lung cancer in this entire study population was 20.1% (165/609), nosocomial infections occurring in sputum specimens (85.5%), followed by blood (6.73%), urine (6.0%) and pleural effusions (1.82%). It was shown that long term hospitalization (${\geq}22days$, P= 0.000), poor clinical stage (IIIb and IV stage, P=0.002), older age (${\geq}61days$ old, P=0.023), and use the hormones were linked to nosocomial infection and the ANN model consisted of these four factors. The artificial neural network model with variables consisting of age, clinical stage, time of hospitalization, and use of hormones should be useful for predicting nosocomial infection in lung cancer cases.

An Analysis of Urban Spatial Cycles Considering Wide Area City Plan in Seoul Metropolitan Area (광역도시계획을 고려한 수도권 도시 성장주기 분석)

  • Im, Young-Jin;Lee, Myeong-Hun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.348-358
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    • 2016
  • This study reveals a change in the growth cycle of metropolitan with analyzing the population of Seoul metropolitan area and identifies the characteristics of each urban area. For this, the exponential growth of the city, Roxy index, which in recent years been actively studied in Japan, has applied. As a result, the entire metropolitan area and central areas, and the southern region are about to move to the accelerating centralization phase. In the phase of suburbanization are highly likely to turn into the new phase of regression phase. In addition, the northern and eastern suburbs are currently in progress with the accelerating decentralization phase and are expected to be converted in the decelerating decentralization phase. Through this implication in Seoul metropolitan area, it is necessary to carry out the policy responses about regional maintenance by connecting to the changes in direction and speed of cycle phase of city. The results of this study can be used as basic data to determine the long-term future growth and decline of the metropolitan area.

Can Computed Tomographic Angiography Be Used to Predict Who Will Not Benefit from Endovascular Treatment in Patients with Acute Ischemic Stroke? The CTA-ABC Score

  • Kwak, Hyo-Sung;Park, Jung-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.63 no.4
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    • pp.470-476
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    • 2020
  • Objective : The objective of this study was to develop a score to predict patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) who will not benefit from endovascular treatment (EVT) using computed tomographic angiography (CTA) parameters. Methods : The CTA-ABC score was developed from 3 scales previously described in the literature: the Alberta Stroke Program Early CT Score (0-5 points, 3; 6-10 points, 0), the clot burden score (0-3 points, 1; 4-10 points, 0), and the leptomeningeal Collateral score (0-1 points, 2; 2-3 points, 0). We evaluated the predictive value of CTA parameters associated with symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) or malignant middle cerebral artery infarction (MMCAI) after EVT and developed the score using logistic regression coefficients. The score was then validated. Performance of the score was tested with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC). Results : The derivation cohort consisted of 115 and the validation cohort consisted of 40 AIS patients. The AUC-ROC was 0.97 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.94-0.99; p<0.001) in the derivation cohort. The proportions of patients with sICH and/or MMCAI in the derivation cohort were 96%, 73%, 6%, and 0% for scores of 6, 5, 1, and 0 points, respectively. In the validation group, the proportions were similar (90%, 100%, 0%, and 0%, respectively) with an AUC-ROC of 0.96 (95% CI, 0.90-1.00; p<0.001). Conclusion : Our CTA-ABC score reliably assessed risk for sICH and/or MMCAI in patients with AIS who underwent EVT. It can support clinical decision-making, especially when the need for EVT is uncertain.

Development of a Comprehensive Flood Index through Standardizing Distributions of Runoff Characteristics (유출특성 분포함수의 표준화를 통한 종합홍수지수의 개발)

  • Wi, Sung-Wook;Chung, Gun-Hui;Kim, Tae-Woong
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.41 no.6
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    • pp.605-617
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    • 2008
  • This study developed a flood index which evaluates runoff characteristics. Runoff characteristics expressed in a hydrograph were reflected in the flood index in the form of characteristic factors such as a rising curve gradient, a peak discharge, a flood response time, and a flood discharge volume prior to peak. This study applied the standardization method to estimate the relative severity of the characteristic factors by transforming the distribution of characteristic factors into the standard normal distribution. The flood index developed in this study is a comprehensive flood index (CFI) which makes up for the weak points of a flash flood index (FFI) in determining relative severities. The CFI was applied to Han River basin and Selma River basin, and was compared with the FFI based on the correlation analysis and the regression analysis. The CFI could comprehensively evaluate flood runoff characteristics because the CFI is not dominated by a specific characteristic factor, and the CFI could explain more efficiently the relationship between rainfall and runoff than the FFI.

Nonlinear correlation analysis between air and water temperatures in the coastal zone, Korea (우리나라 연안 기온과 수온의 비선형 상관관계 분석)

  • Lee, Khil-Ha
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.128-135
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    • 2007
  • In response to anthropogenic global warming due to a buildup greenhouse gas, the effect of the air temperature on water temperature has been noticed. Therefore, effects have been made to build an air/water temperature relationship at three study regions using the data collected by the Ministry of the Maritime Affairs and Fisheries (MOMAF). The air/water relationship varies with time-scale and weekly time-scale was chosen for the study. The data were fitted to the S-shaped non-linear relationship, and the parameters for the S-curve were derived using a single-criteria multi-parameter optimization scheme. Separate regression curves were fitted to consider seasonal hysteresis at the Masan site. The study results support the S-shaped non-linear relationship is the best fit for the air/water relationship at the Korean coastal zone. This study will contribute to determine the future policy regarding water quality and ecosystem for the decision-driving organization.

Prediction of unresponsiveness to second intravenous immunoglobulin treatment in patients with Kawasaki disease refractory to initial treatment

  • Seo, Euri;Yu, Jeong Jin;Jun, Hyun Ok;Shin, Eun Jung;Baek, Jae Suk;Kim, Young-Hwue;Ko, Jae-Kon
    • Clinical and Experimental Pediatrics
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    • v.59 no.10
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    • pp.408-413
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study investigated predictors of unresponsiveness to second-line intravenous immunoglobulin (IVIG) treatment for Kawasaki disease (KD). Methods: This was a single-center analysis of the medical records of 588 patients with KD who had been admitted to Asan Medical Center between 2006 and 2014. Related clinical and laboratory data were analyzed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: Eighty (13.6%) of the 588 patients with KD were unresponsive to the initial IVIG treatment and received a second dose. For these 80 patients, univariate analysis of the laboratory results obtained before administering the second-line IVIG treatment showed that white blood cell count, neutrophil percent, hemoglobin level, platelet count, serum protein level, albumin level, potassium level, and C-reactive protein level were significant predictors. The addition of methyl prednisolone to the second-line regimen was not associated with treatment response (odds ratio [OR], 0.871; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.216-3.512; P=0.846). Multivariate analysis revealed serum protein level to be the only predictor of unresponsiveness to the second-line treatment (OR, 0.160; 95% CI, 0.028-0.911; P=0.039). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis to determine predictors of unresponsiveness to the second dose of IVIG showed a sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 72% at a serum protein cutoff level of <7.15 g/dL. Conclusion: The serum protein level of the patient prior to the second dose of IVIG is a significant predictor of unresponsiveness. The addition of methyl prednisolone to the second-line regimen produces no treatment benefit.

Development of The Irregular Radial Pulse Detection Algorithm Based on Statistical Learning Model (통계적 학습 모형에 기반한 불규칙 맥파 검출 알고리즘 개발)

  • Bae, Jang-Han;Jang, Jun-Su;Ku, Boncho
    • Journal of Biomedical Engineering Research
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.185-194
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    • 2020
  • Arrhythmia is basically diagnosed with the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal, however, ECG is difficult to measure and it requires expert help in analyzing the signal. On the other hand, the radial pulse can be measured with easy and uncomplicated way in daily life, and could be suitable bio-signal for the recent untact paradigm and extensible signal for diagnosis of Korean medicine based on pulse pattern. In this study, we developed an irregular radial pulse detection algorithm based on a learning model and considered its applicability as arrhythmia screening. A total of 1432 pulse waves including irregular pulse data were used in the experiment. Three data sets were prepared with minimal preprocessing to avoid the heuristic feature extraction. As classification algorithms, elastic net logistic regression, random forest, and extreme gradient boosting were applied to each data set and the irregular pulse detection performances were estimated using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve based on a 10-fold cross-validation. The extreme gradient boosting method showed the superior performance than others and found that the classification accuracy reached 99.7%. The results confirmed that the proposed algorithm could be used for arrhythmia screening. To make a fusion technology integrating western and Korean medicine, arrhythmia subtype classification from the perspective of Korean medicine will be needed for future research.

Developmental Changes of Serum IgA, IgG and IgM Concentrations in Broiler Chicks - III. Isolation of IgM and Developmental Changes of Serum IgM Levels (육계의 혈청중 면역글로부린(IgA, IgG, IgM)농도의 발육시기별 변화상 - III. IgM 분리 및 발육시기별 농도수준)

  • 김정우;이민호;김춘수;김상희;박근식
    • Korean Journal of Poultry Science
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    • v.21 no.3
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    • pp.175-182
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    • 1994
  • An experiment was conducted to establish a large scale production method of anti-serum against chicken IgM and to profile the developmental changes of serum IgM levels during the feeding period(from hatching to 7 weeks of age) in broiler chicks. Blood samples were taken from Hubbard chicken at the age of hatching, three days of age, and weekly thereafter till to 7 weeks of age. The pure IgM was isolated from ammonium sulfate treated chicken serum by both sephadex G-200 and sepharose CL-6B chromatography. The breaking-through peak containing IgM appeared from the fraction 26 to 28. These fractions consisted mainly of IgM when tested by anti-chicken IgM(Nordic, Netherlands). Immunized with the heavy chain of this purified IgM, the rabbit immune sera(anti-chicken IgM) were formed a reaction only with the purified chicken IgM. The quantitative assay of serum IgM were carried by RID method. The optimal time for diffusion was 14 hours and the coefficient of determination($R^{2}$) for regression equation of standard curve was 0.992. It was observed that IgM concentrations were the highest at hatching(3.23 mg /mL), after that decreased gradually. From 2 to 5 weeks of age the levels unchanged(2.0 ~ 2.3mg /mL), and gradually decreased to 7 weeks of age(1.3 mg /mL).

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A Study on Improvement of Design Method for Freeway Diverging Areas (고속도로 분류부 설계기법 개선 연구)

  • Park, Jae-Beom;Lee, Seung-Jun;Gang, Jeong-Gyu;Kim, Il-Hwan
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.23-35
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    • 2007
  • Freeway diverging areas are very vulnerable to traffic accidents due to abrupt vehicle speed changes and geometric changes. Therefore, in designing diverging areas, much attention should be Paid to safety The Present design criteria about freeway diverging areas regulate transition sections for lane changes, deceleration lanes, transition corves for direction changes. and other similar items. However, the design criteria were often violated in implementation because of ambiguities in the criteria. This study aims at clarifying and improving the present design criteria for freeway diverging areas. For this, field survey data and traffic accident data for diverging areas were analyzed.