• Title/Summary/Keyword: Recursive Prediction Method

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Prediction of Acute Toxicity to Fathead Minnow by Local Model Based QSAR and Global QSAR Approaches

  • In, Young-Yong;Lee, Sung-Kwang;Kim, Pil-Je;No, Kyoung-Tai
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.33 no.2
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    • pp.613-619
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    • 2012
  • We applied several machine learning methods for developing QSAR models for prediction of acute toxicity to fathead minnow. The multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) method were applied to predict 96 h $LC_{50}$ (median lethal concentration) of 555 chemical compounds. Molecular descriptors based on 2D chemical structure were calculated by PreADMET program. The recursive partitioning (RP) model was used for grouping of mode of actions as reactive or narcosis, followed by MLR method of chemicals within the same mode of action. The MLR, ANN, and two RP-MLR models possessed correlation coefficients ($R^2$) as 0.553, 0.618, 0.632, and 0.605 on test set, respectively. The consensus model of ANN and two RP-MLR models was used as the best model on training set and showed good predictivity ($R^2$=0.663) on the test set.

Adaptive Parameter Estimation for Noisy ARMA Process (잡음 ARMA 프로세스의 적응 매개변수추정)

  • 김석주;이기철;박종근
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.380-385
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    • 1990
  • This Paper presents a general algorithm for the parameter estimation of an antoregressive moving average process observed in additive white noise. The algorithm is based on the Gauss-Newton recursive prediction error method. For the parameter estimation, the output measurement is modelled as an innovation process using the spectral factorization, so that noise free RPE ARMA estimation can be used. Using apriori known properties leads to algorithm with smaller computation and better accuracy be the parsimony principle. Computer simulation examples show the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm.

A model based scheme of on-line optimization in distillation process (모델을 이용한 증류공정의 최적화 방안)

  • 김흥식;이광순
    • 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 1990.10a
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    • pp.240-245
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    • 1990
  • A on-line optimization scheme based on model in a binary distillation process is proposed. A reduced-order model utilized the concept of collocation is used as a process model and the recursive prediction error method is employed to identify the reduced-order model. The concentrations of end products are controlled by nonlinear adaptive predictive control algorithm. The objective function is constructed to find optimum operate condition for saving utility cost. The proposed optimization is scheme is tested through simulation studies in 13-staged water-methanol distillation column.

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Block-wise Adaptive Predictive PLS using Block-wise Data Extraction (데이터 추출 과정을 적용한 Block-wise Adaptive Predictive PLS)

  • Kim Sung-Young;Chung Chang-Bock;Choi Soo-Hyoung;Lee Bom-Sock
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.12 no.7
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    • pp.706-712
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    • 2006
  • Recursive Partial Least Squares(RPLS) method has been used for processing the on-line available multivariate chemical process data and modeling adaptive prediction model for process changes. However, RPLS method is unstable in PLS model updating because RPLS method updates PLS model by merging past PLS model and new data. In this study, Adaptive Predictive Partial Least Squres(APPLS) method is suggested for more sensitive adaptation to process changes. By expanding APPLS method, block-wise Adaptive Predictive Partial Least Squares(block-wise APPLS) method is suggested for a lager scale data of chemical processes. APPLS method has been applied to predict the reactor properties and the product quality of a direct esterification reactor for polyethylene terephthalate(PTT), and block-wise APPLS method has been applied to predict the cetane number using NIR Diesel Spectra data. APPLS and block-wise APPLS methods show better prediction and updating performance than RPLS method.

Detection and Tracking of Time Varying Power System Frequencies and Harmonics using Subband Adaptive Filtering (적응 부밴드 필터링을 이용한 전력계통 시변 주파수와 고조파 검출 및 추적)

  • Sohn, Sang-Wook;Choi, Hun;Bae, Hyeon-Deok
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.58 no.4
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    • pp.679-687
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, a subband filtering and adaptive prediction technique for analyzing harmonics in power systems is presented. In this method, the filter banks are designed to decompose odd and even order harmonics separately. The adaptive prediction has been employed reduce the transient and white noise effect in time varying harmonics detecting and tracking. The frequencies and amplitudes of the decomposed harmonics are estimated by recursive algorithm. To demonstrate the performances of the developed technique, computer simulations to the signal with the time-varying frequency and THD are carried out.

Adaptive Control of A One-Link Flexible Robot Manipulator (유연한 로보트 매니퓰레이터의 적응제어)

  • 박정일;박종국
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Telematics and Electronics B
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    • v.30B no.5
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    • pp.52-61
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    • 1993
  • This paper deals with adaptive control method of a robot manipulator with one-flexible link. ARMA model is used as a prediction and estimation model, and adaptive control scheme consists of parameter estimation part and adaptive controller. Parameter estimation part estimates ARMA model's coefficients by using recursive least-squares(RLS) algorithm and generates the predicted output. Variable forgetting factor (VFF) is introduced to achieve an efficient estimation, and adaptive controller consists of reference model, error dynamics model and minimum prediction error controller. An optimal input is obtained by minimizing input torque, it's successive input change and the error between the predicted output and the reference output.

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CNN-based Fast Split Mode Decision Algorithm for Versatile Video Coding (VVC) Inter Prediction

  • Yeo, Woon-Ha;Kim, Byung-Gyu
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • v.8 no.3
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    • pp.147-158
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    • 2021
  • Versatile Video Coding (VVC) is the latest video coding standard developed by Joint Video Exploration Team (JVET). In VVC, the quadtree plus multi-type tree (QT+MTT) structure of coding unit (CU) partition is adopted, and its computational complexity is considerably high due to the brute-force search for recursive rate-distortion (RD) optimization. In this paper, we aim to reduce the time complexity of inter-picture prediction mode since the inter prediction accounts for a large portion of the total encoding time. The problem can be defined as classifying the split mode of each CU. To classify the split mode effectively, a novel convolutional neural network (CNN) called multi-level tree (MLT-CNN) architecture is introduced. For boosting classification performance, we utilize additional information including inter-picture information while training the CNN. The overall algorithm including the MLT-CNN inference process is implemented on VVC Test Model (VTM) 11.0. The CUs of size 128×128 can be the inputs of the CNN. The sequences are encoded at the random access (RA) configuration with five QP values {22, 27, 32, 37, 42}. The experimental results show that the proposed algorithm can reduce the computational complexity by 11.53% on average, and 26.14% for the maximum with an average 1.01% of the increase in Bjøntegaard delta bit rate (BDBR). Especially, the proposed method shows higher performance on the sequences of the A and B classes, reducing 9.81%~26.14% of encoding time with 0.95%~3.28% of the BDBR increase.

Runoff Prediction from Machine Learning Models Coupled with Empirical Mode Decomposition: A case Study of the Grand River Basin in Canada

  • Parisouj, Peiman;Jun, Changhyun;Nezhad, Somayeh Moghimi;Narimani, Roya
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2022.05a
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    • pp.136-136
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    • 2022
  • This study investigates the possibility of coupling empirical mode decomposition (EMD) for runoff prediction from machine learning (ML) models. Here, support vector regression (SVR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) were considered for ML algorithms. Precipitation (P), minimum temperature (Tmin), maximum temperature (Tmax) and their intrinsic mode functions (IMF) values were used for input variables at a monthly scale from Jan. 1973 to Dec. 2020 in the Grand river basin, Canada. The support vector machine-recursive feature elimination (SVM-RFE) technique was applied for finding the best combination of predictors among input variables. The results show that the proposed method outperformed the individual performance of SVR and CNN during the training and testing periods in the study area. According to the correlation coefficient (R), the EMD-SVR model outperformed the EMD-CNN model in both training and testing even though the CNN indicated a better performance than the SVR before using IMF values. The EMD-SVR model showed higher improvement in R value (38.7%) than that from the EMD-CNN model (7.1%). It should be noted that the coupled models of EMD-SVR and EMD-CNN represented much higher accuracy in runoff prediction with respect to the considered evaluation indicators, including root mean square error (RMSE) and R values.

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A study on the adaptive method of control model for tandem cold rolling mill (연속냉간압연기 제어모델의 적응수정방법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Won-Ho;Lee, Sang-Ryong
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.1030-1041
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    • 1997
  • The control model in the tandem cold rolling mill consists of many mathematical theories and is used to calculate the reference values such as the roll gap and the rolling speed for good operation of rolling mill. But, the control model used presently has a problem causing inaccurate prediction of the rolling force. By the parameter identification, it was found that the main factor causing inaccurate prediction of the rolling force was incorrect modeling of the friction coefficient and the flow stress. To get rid of the erroneous factor new adaptive schemes are suggested in this work. Those are a long-time adaptation by the iterative least-square method and a short-time adaptation by the recursive weighted least-square method respectively. The new equations for the friction coefficient and the flow stress are derived by applying the suggested adaptive algorithms. Through the on-line test in an actual mill, it is proved that the rolling force predicted by the new equations is more accurate than the one by the existing equations ever used.

A Study on the Development of Prediction Method of Ozone Formation for Ozone Forecast System (오존예보시스템을 위한 오존 발생량의 예측기법 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Oh, Sea Cheon;Yeo, Yeong-Koo
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.27-37
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    • 2002
  • To verify the performance and effectiveness of bilinear model for the development of ozone prediction system, the simulation experiments of the model identification for ozone formation were performed by using bilinear and linear models. And the prediction results of the ozone formation by bilinear model were compared to those of linear model and the measured data of Seoul. ARMA(Autoregressive Moving Average) model was used in the model identification. A recursive parameter estimation algorithm based on an equation error method was used to estimate parameters of model. From the results of model identification experiment, the ozone formation by bilinear model showed good agreement with the ozone formation from the simulator. From the comparison of the prediction results and the measured data, it appears that the method proposed in this work is a reasonable means of developing real-time short-term prediction of ozone formation for an ozone forecast system.

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