• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.91-102
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• 2003

There are two goals in this paper. The one is development of existing CA(Cellular Automata) model to explain more realistic deceleration process to stop. The other is the application of the updated CA model to forecasting simulation to predict short term link travel time that takes a key rule in finding the shortest path of route guidance system of ITS. Car following theory of CA models don't makes not response to leading vehicle's velocity but gap or distance between leading vehicles and following vehicles. So a following vehicle running at free flow speed must meet steeply sudden deceleration to avoid back collision within unrealistic braking distance. To tackle above unrealistic deceleration rule, “Slow-to-stop” rule is integrated into NaSch model. For application to interrupted traffic flow, this paper applies “Slow-to-stop” rule to both normal traffic light and random traffic light. And vehicle packet method is used to simulate a large-scale network on the desktop. Generally, time series data analysis methods such as neural network, ARIMA, and Kalman filtering are used for short term link travel time prediction that is crucial to find an optimal dynamic shortest path. But those methods have time-lag problems and are hard to capture traffic flow mechanism such as spill over and spill back etc. To address above problems. the CA model built in this study is used for forecasting simulation to predict short term link travel time in Kangnam district network And it's turned out that short term prediction simulation method generates novel results, taking a crack of time lag problems and considering interrupted traffic flow mechanism.

• KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.10 no.1
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• pp.9-16
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• 1990

The safety of concrete nuclear containment structures should be secured against all kinds of loading due to various natural disasters or extraordinary accidental loads. The current design criteria of concrete containment structures are not based on the reliabillty-based design concept but rely on the conventional design concept. In this paper, a probabillty-based reliability analysis were proposed based on a FEM-based random vibration analysis and serviceability limit state of structures. The limit state model defined for the study is a serviceability limit state in terms of the more realistic crack failure that might cause the emission of radioactive materials, and the results are compared with those of the strength limit state. More accurate reliability analyses under various dynamic loads such as earthquake loads were made possible by incorporation the FEM and random vibration theory, which is different from the conventional reliability analysis method. The uncertainties in loads and resistance available in Korea and the refernces were adapted to the situation of Korea, and especially in the case of earthquake, the design earthquake was assessed based on the available re ports on probabilistic description of earthquake ground acceleration in the Korea peninsula.