• 제목/요약/키워드: Real options method

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Clinical Dilemmas for the Diagnosis and Treatment of Helicobacter pylori Infection in Children: From Guideline to Practice

  • Susanne Jenneke Van Veen;Elvira Ingrid Levy;Koen Huysentruyt;Yvan Vandenplas
    • Pediatric Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition
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    • 제27권5호
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2024
  • Helicobacter pylori infection is often acquired in early childhood. While most infected children remain asymptomatic, H. pylori can cause chronic gastritis, gastric ulceration, and, in the long term, gastric cancer. This article aimed to review different diagnostic and treatment options and discuss the challenges associated with applying the current guidelines in the real world. Relevant articles published from 2015 to August 2023 in the English language in PubMed and Medline electronic databases were extracted using subject headings and keywords of interest to the topic. References of interest in the selected articles were also considered. Invasive and noninvasive diagnostic tests have advantages but also disadvantages and limitations according to the clinical setting and age of the child. Guidelines recommend not performing diagnostic testing in children with long-lasting or recurrent abdominal complaints or cases of a family history of severe disease caused by H. pylori. However, parents regularly consult with the explicit demand to test for H. pylori because of them or a close family member experiencing severe gastric disease caused by H. pylori. In some situations, it may be challenging for the healthcare professional to stick to evidence-based guidelines and not consider "patient-centered care," with the risk of putting a trustful relationship in danger. Physicians may find it challenging not to perform diagnostic tests for H. pylori and prescribe eradication treatment in specific clinical settings when maintaining a trusting patientphysician relationship by applying this "patient-centered care" method when evidence-based guidelines recommend differently.

VKOSPI Forecasting and Option Trading Application Using SVM (SVM을 이용한 VKOSPI 일 중 변화 예측과 실제 옵션 매매에의 적용)

  • Ra, Yun Seon;Choi, Heung Sik;Kim, Sun Woong
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.177-192
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    • 2016
  • Machine learning is a field of artificial intelligence. It refers to an area of computer science related to providing machines the ability to perform their own data analysis, decision making and forecasting. For example, one of the representative machine learning models is artificial neural network, which is a statistical learning algorithm inspired by the neural network structure of biology. In addition, there are other machine learning models such as decision tree model, naive bayes model and SVM(support vector machine) model. Among the machine learning models, we use SVM model in this study because it is mainly used for classification and regression analysis that fits well to our study. The core principle of SVM is to find a reasonable hyperplane that distinguishes different group in the data space. Given information about the data in any two groups, the SVM model judges to which group the new data belongs based on the hyperplane obtained from the given data set. Thus, the more the amount of meaningful data, the better the machine learning ability. In recent years, many financial experts have focused on machine learning, seeing the possibility of combining with machine learning and the financial field where vast amounts of financial data exist. Machine learning techniques have been proved to be powerful in describing the non-stationary and chaotic stock price dynamics. A lot of researches have been successfully conducted on forecasting of stock prices using machine learning algorithms. Recently, financial companies have begun to provide Robo-Advisor service, a compound word of Robot and Advisor, which can perform various financial tasks through advanced algorithms using rapidly changing huge amount of data. Robo-Adviser's main task is to advise the investors about the investor's personal investment propensity and to provide the service to manage the portfolio automatically. In this study, we propose a method of forecasting the Korean volatility index, VKOSPI, using the SVM model, which is one of the machine learning methods, and applying it to real option trading to increase the trading performance. VKOSPI is a measure of the future volatility of the KOSPI 200 index based on KOSPI 200 index option prices. VKOSPI is similar to the VIX index, which is based on S&P 500 option price in the United States. The Korea Exchange(KRX) calculates and announce the real-time VKOSPI index. VKOSPI is the same as the usual volatility and affects the option prices. The direction of VKOSPI and option prices show positive relation regardless of the option type (call and put options with various striking prices). If the volatility increases, all of the call and put option premium increases because the probability of the option's exercise possibility increases. The investor can know the rising value of the option price with respect to the volatility rising value in real time through Vega, a Black-Scholes's measurement index of an option's sensitivity to changes in the volatility. Therefore, accurate forecasting of VKOSPI movements is one of the important factors that can generate profit in option trading. In this study, we verified through real option data that the accurate forecast of VKOSPI is able to make a big profit in real option trading. To the best of our knowledge, there have been no studies on the idea of predicting the direction of VKOSPI based on machine learning and introducing the idea of applying it to actual option trading. In this study predicted daily VKOSPI changes through SVM model and then made intraday option strangle position, which gives profit as option prices reduce, only when VKOSPI is expected to decline during daytime. We analyzed the results and tested whether it is applicable to real option trading based on SVM's prediction. The results showed the prediction accuracy of VKOSPI was 57.83% on average, and the number of position entry times was 43.2 times, which is less than half of the benchmark (100 times). A small number of trading is an indicator of trading efficiency. In addition, the experiment proved that the trading performance was significantly higher than the benchmark.

An Option Pricing Model for the Natural Resource Development Projects (해외자원개발사업 평가를 위한 옵션가격 결정모형 연구)

  • Lee, In-Suk;Heo, Eunnyeong
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • 제13권4호
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    • pp.735-761
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    • 2004
  • As a possible alternative to Traditional Discounted Cash Flow Method, "Option Pricing Model" has drawn academic attentions for the last a few decades. However, it has failed to replace traditional DCF method practically due to its mathematical complexity. This paper introduces an option pricing valuation model specifically adjusted for the natural resource development projects. We add market information and industry-specific features into the model so that the model remains objective as well as realistic after the adjustment. The following two features of natural resource development projects take central parts in model construction; product price is a unique source of cash flow's uncertainty, and the projects have cost structure from capital-intense industry, in which initial capital cost takes most part of total cost during the projects. To improve the adaptability of Option Pricing Model specifically to the natural resource development projects, we use Two-Factor Model and Long-term Asset Model for the analysis. Although the model introduced in this paper is still simple and reflects limited reality, we expect an improvement in applicability of option pricing method for the evaluation of natural resource development projects can be made through the process taken in this paper.

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Virulence factors and multi-drug resistant patterns of pathogenic Escherichia coli isolates from diarrheic calves in Jeonbuk (전북지역 송아지 설사 유래 병원성 대장균의 병원성 인자 및 다제 내성 패턴)

  • Kwak, Kil-Han;Kim, Seon-Min;Yu, Yeong-Ju;Yu, Jeong-Hee;Lim, Mi-Na;Jang, Yu-Jeong;Hur, Jin
    • Korean Journal of Veterinary Service
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    • 제44권4호
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    • pp.271-281
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    • 2021
  • Pathogenic Escherichia coli (E. coli) is one among the most important agents of diarrhea in calves. From January to December 2021, 108 isolates from feces of calves with diarrhea were investigated for enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), enteropathogenic E. coli (EPEC), shiga toxin-producing E. coli (STEC), enteroaggregative E. coli (EAEC), and enteroinvasive E. coli (EIEC) using real-time PCR. In addition, the genes for F5, F17 and F41 fimbriae were detected by PCR. The most frequently isolated pathotypes were EPEC/STEC (29 isolates), and ETEC/EPEC/STEC (29 isolates). ETEC/EPEC, and ETEC/STEC were also found in 10 isolates. EPEC, STEC, and ETEC were detected in 13, 11, and 6 respectively. EAEC, and EIEC was not detected. Antimicrobial resistance test was carried out by agar disc diffusion method with 14 antimicrobials. Among 108 pathogenic E. coli isolates, 107 isolates were resistant to at least one of 14 antibiotics used in this study, 99 (91.7%) were resistant to two or more antimicrobials, and a single remarkable isolate was resistant to 14 antimicrobials. The isolates were primarily resistant to penicillins, streptomycin, tetracycline, ceftiofur, Trimethoprim/sulfamethoxazole, Kanamycin, and Ciprofloxacin. The high rate of resistance in pathogenic E. coli, sometimes to multiple drugs, may complicate future options for treating human infections. These results may bu used for diagnosis and therpeitic purposes in calves with diarrhea.

Real Option Analysis to Value Government Risk Share Liability in BTO-a Projects (손익공유형 민간투자사업의 투자위험분담 가치 산정)

  • KU, Sukmo;LEE, Sunghoon;LEE, Seungjae
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • 제35권4호
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    • pp.360-373
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    • 2017
  • The BTO-a projects is the types, which has a demand risk among the type of PPP projects in Korea. When demand risk is realized, private investor encounters financial difficulties due to lower revenue than its expectation and the government may also have a problem in stable infrastructure operation. In this regards, the government has applied various risk sharing policies in response to demand risk. However, the amount of government's risk sharing is the government's contingent liabilities as a result of demand uncertainty, and it fails to be quantified by the conventional NPV method of expressing in the text of the concession agreement. The purpose of this study is to estimate the value of investment risk sharing by the government considering the demand risk in the profit sharing system (BTO-a) introduced in 2015 as one of the demand risk sharing policy. The investment risk sharing will take the form of options in finance. Private investors have the right to claim subsidies from the government when their revenue declines, while the government has the obligation to pay subsidies under certain conditions. In this study, we have established a methodology for estimating the value of investment risk sharing by using the Black - Scholes option pricing model and examined the appropriateness of the results through case studies. As a result of the analysis, the value of investment risk sharing is estimated to be 12 billion won, which is about 4% of the investment cost of the private investment. In other words, it can be seen that the government will invest 12 billion won in financial support by sharing the investment risk. The option value when assuming the traffic volume risk as a random variable from the case studies is derived as an average of 12.2 billion won and a standard deviation of 3.67 billion won. As a result of the cumulative distribution, the option value of the 90% probability interval will be determined within the range of 6.9 to 18.8 billion won. The method proposed in this study is expected to help government and private investors understand the better risk analysis and economic value of better for investment risk sharing under the uncertainty of future demand.

A Study on Differentiation and Improvement in Arbitration Systems in Construction Disputes (건설분쟁 중재제도의 차별화 및 개선방안에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Sun-Jae
    • Journal of Arbitration Studies
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    • 제29권2호
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    • pp.239-282
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    • 2019
  • The importance of ADR(Alternative Dispute Resolution), which has the advantage of expertise, speed and neutrality due to the increase of arbitration cases due to domestic and foreign construction disputes, has emerged. Therefore, in order for the nation's arbitration system and the arbitration Organization to jump into the ranks of advanced international mediators, it is necessary to research the characteristics and advantages of these arbitration Organization through a study of prior domestic and foreign research and operation of international arbitration Organization. As a problem, First, education for the efficient promotion of arbitrators (compulsory education, maintenance education, specialized education, seminars, etc.). second, The effectiveness of arbitration in resolving construction disputes (hearing methods, composition of the tribunal, and speed). third, The issue of flexibility and diversity of arbitration solutions (the real problem of methodologies such as mediation and arbitration) needs to be drawn on the Arbitration laws and practical problems, such as laws, rules and guidelines. Therefore, Identify the problems presented in the preceding literature and diagnosis of the defects and problems of the KCAB by drawing features and benefits from the arbitration system operated by the international arbitration Institution. As an improvement, the results of an empirical analysis are derived for "arbitrator" simultaneously through a recognition survey. As a method of improvement, First, as an optimal combination of arbitration hearing and judgment in the settlement of construction disputes,(to improve speed). (1) A plan to improve the composition of the audit department according to the complexity, specificity, and magnification of the arbitration cases - (1)Methods to cope with the increased role of the non-lawyer(Specialist, technical expert). (2)Securing technical mediators for each specialized expert according to the large and special corporation arbitration cases. (2) Improving the method of writing by area of the arbitration guidelines, second, Introduction of the intensive hearing system for psychological efficiency and the institutional improvement plan (1) Problems of optimizing the arbitration decision hearing procedure and resolution of arbitration, and (2) Problems of the management of technical arbitrators of arbitration tribunals. (1)A plan to expand hearing work of technical arbitrator(Review on the introduction of the Assistant System as a member of the arbitration tribunals). (2)Improved use of alternative appraisers by tribunals(cost analysis and utilization of the specialized institution for calculating construction costs), Direct management of technical arbitrators : A Study on the Improvement of the Assessment Reliability of the Appraisal and the Appraisal Period. third, Improvement of expert committee system and new method, (1) Creating a non-executive technical committee : Special technology affairs, etc.(Major, supports pre-qualification of special events and coordinating work between parties). (2) Expanding the standing committee.(Added expert technicians : important, special, large affairs / pre-consultations, pre-coordination and mediation-arbitration). This has been shown to be an improvement. In addition, institutional differentiation to enhance the flexibility and diversity of arbitration. In addition, as an institutional differentiation to enhance the flexibility and diversity of arbitration, First, The options for "Med-Arb", "Arb-Med" and "Arb-Med-Arb" are selected. second, By revising the Agreement Act [Article 28, 2 (Agreement on Dispute Resolution)], which is to be amended by the National Parties, the revision of the arbitration settlement clause under the Act, to expand the method to resolve arbitration. third, 2017.6.28. Measures to strengthen the status role and activities of expert technical arbitrators under enforcement, such as the Act on Promotion of Interestments Industry and the Information of Enforcement Decree. Fourth, a measure to increase the role of expert technical Arbitrators by enacting laws on the promotion of the arbitration industry is needed. Especially, the establishment of the Act on Promotion of Intermediation Industry should be established as an international arbitration agency for the arbitration system. Therefore, it proposes a study of improvement and differentiation measures in the details and a policy, legal and institutional improvement and legislation.