• Title/Summary/Keyword: Real options approach

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A Study On The Economic Value Of Firm's Big Data Technologies Introduction Using Real Option Approach - Based On YUYU Pharmaceuticals Case - (실물옵션 기법을 이용한 기업의 빅데이터 기술 도입의 경제적 가치 분석 - 유유제약 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Jang, Hyuk Soo;Lee, Bong Gyou
    • Journal of Internet Computing and Services
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.15-26
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    • 2014
  • This study focus on a economic value of the Big Data technologies by real options model using big data technology company's stock price to determine the price of the economic value of incremental assessed value. For estimating stochastic process of company's stock price by big data technology to extract the incremental shares, Generalized Moments Method (GMM) are used. Option value for Black-Scholes partial differential equation was derived, in which finite difference numerical methods to obtain the Big Data technology was introduced to estimate the economic value. As a result, a option value of big data technology investment is 38.5 billion under assumption which investment cost is 50 million won and time value is a about 1 million, respectively. Thus, introduction of big data technology to create a substantial effect on corporate profits, is valuable and there are an effects on the additional time value. Sensitivity analysis of lower underlying asset value appear decreased options value and the lower investment cost showed increased options value. A volatility are not sensitive on the option value due to the big data technological characteristics which are low stock volatility and introduction periods.

A Probabilistic Algorithm for Multi-aircraft Collision Detection and Resolution in 3-D

  • Kim, Kwang-Yeon;Park, Jung-Woo;Tahk, Min-Jea
    • International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2008
  • This paper presents a real-time algorithm for collision detection, collision avoidance and guidance. Three-dimensional point-mass aircraft models are used. For collision detection, conflict probability is calculated by using the Monte-Carlo Simulation. Time at the closest point of approach(CPA) and distance at CPA are needed to determine the collision probability, being compared to certain threshold values. For collision avoidance, one of possible maneuver options is chosen to minimize the collision probability. For guidance to a designated way-point, proportional navigation guidance law is used. Two scenarios on encounter situation are studied to demonstrate the performance of proposed algorithm.

Real Time Vehicle Detection and Counting Using Tail Lights on Highway at Night Time (차량의 후미등을 이용한 야간 고속도로상의 실시간 차량검출 및 카운팅)

  • Valijon, Khalilov;Oh, Ryumduck;Kim, Bongkeun
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Computer Information Conference
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    • 2017.07a
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    • pp.135-136
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    • 2017
  • When driving at night time environment, the whole body of transports does not visible to us. Due to lack of light conditions, there are only two options, which is clearly visible their taillights and break lights. To improve the recognition correctness of vehicle detection, we present an approach to vehicle detection and tracking using finding contour of the object on binary image at night time. Bilateral filtering is used to make more clearly on threshold part. To remove unexpected small noises used morphological opening. In verification stage, paired tail lights are tracked during their existence in the ROI. The accuracy of the test results for vehicle detection is about 93%.

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OPTION DESIGN STRATEGIES FOR INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

  • Charles Y. J. Cheah;Jicai Liu
    • International conference on construction engineering and project management
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    • 2005.10a
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    • pp.980-985
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    • 2005
  • Since the 1980s, Build-Operate-Transfer and its variations have become a common approach to develop large-scale infrastructure projects. Despite the slight variations in contractual settings, the key issue for all parties concerned is to assess the risks and uncertainties inherent in a project. The risk factors studied and highlighted by past researchers are very diverse. This paper starts with an objective to compare the risk factors in different sectors of infrastructure, and then categorize them into two kinds: general and specific. Following this classification, risk mitigation strategies should be adopted differently at the corporate and project levels. A few short cases have also been used to illustrate the flexible measures or "options" that some project participants have designed to address risks and uncertainties at the two levels.

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Proposition of a Practical Hybrid Model for the Valuation of Technology (기술가치평가를 위한 실용적 하이브리드 모델의 제안)

  • Park, Hyun-Woo;Nah, Do-Baek;Park, Jong-Kyu
    • Management & Information Systems Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.27-44
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    • 2009
  • Economic value of a certain technology is of great interest and importance in a wide variety of investment circumstances. These vary from companies considering investing in R&D projects, to venture capitalists funding start-up companies. However, such valuation is extremely difficult in any case, and the cost of failure can be very high. Many techniques have been proposed to assist managers facing this issue, from traditional discounted cash flow analysis to more recent methods based on real options. In the meantime, the discounted cash flow method has limitations in applying the valuation of technology. At the same time, there have been various solutions to overcome theoretical problems of the method. Real options have been thought as a solution. However, there are another problems in using them in real world. This paper reviews the previous studies on the valuation of technology in several aspects, discusses the practicability of the various methods available, and explore the application of a hybrid model, which aims to make these rather aore the ideas more accessible to practicing managers.

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Economic Evaluation of Port Hinterlands Using Real Option -Focusing on the Case Study for Hinterland of Busan New Port- (실물옵션을 이용한 항만배후단지의 가치평가 -부산신항 배후단지 사례분석을 중심으로-)

  • Kim, MyoungHee;Lee, Kihwan
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.235-257
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    • 2012
  • Recently the role of ports has been changed to satisfy flexibly needs of demands in global economy. A new concept for ports is not just a place for international trade but an important nodal point in logistics chain. The changing environment like this trend creates a high degree of uncertainty and leaves port managers confused with the question how to respond effectively to dynamic market. The latest studies provide that the port must have a good hinterland to achieve competitive advantages in a logistics chain. Korean Government announced "The Master Development Plan for Port Logistics Parks in Korea" in 2006. This contains the plan of hinterland construction of Busan New Port to achieve the status of logistics hub in Asian market. Previous studies rely solely on traditional DCF(discounted cash flow) analysis for investment of hinterland. However DCF method does not include irreversibility, uncertainty and the choice of timing for investment project. This thesis introduces a ROPM(real options pricing model) which overcomes the limitations of traditional valuation methods. The option valuations in this study utilize the Black-Scholes model, the binomial model and the MonteCarlo simulation to value investment opportunity of a port hinterland. In this thesis, an attempt is made to modify the NPV criterion by incorporating the real options approach, and its application is demonstrated in a hinterland construction investment plan. This research has conducted an empirical analysis by calculating economic value of the investment for a hinterland of Busan New Port.

Real Option Study on Sustainable DMZ Management under Biodiversity Uncertainty (생물다양성 불확실성하에서 지속가능한 DMZ 관리 실물옵션 분석)

  • Lee, Jaehyung
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.617-643
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    • 2019
  • The Demilitarized Zone(DMZ) is a buffer zone set between the southern and northern limit lines established after the 1953 Armistice Agreement. It is an important natural environment conservation area where wild species of animals and plants live. On the other hand, the development pressure on the DMZ will increase when the inter-Korean economic cooperation is activated in the future. As a result, DMZ development should consider not only the economic cost-benefit aspects, but also how to assess and conserve the biodiversity of the DMZ, as well as the recovery costs and budget. This paper develope a sustainable DMZ management model under biodiversity uncertainly by using real option approach. The model is also designed to reflect the political risk and regional specificity of the DMZ. Through empirical analysis, I derive the biodiversity threshold (b*) that can secure the DMZ investment economy under uncertainty. In addition, through the sensitivity analysis, I derive the factors influencing the biodiversity threshold, and suggest the policy implications for sustainable management of DMZ.

Acceleration of the Customer Education Paradox by a Smartphone

  • Lee, Ji-Eun;Zoe, Chou
    • International Journal of Contents
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.31-40
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    • 2015
  • This paper primarily intends to explore whether smartphones accelerate the customer education paradox. Smartphone usage is becoming a mainstream habit, and it is changing people's shopping experience and conventional practices, hence presenting new challenges to the market. A smartphone affects customers strongly when they are trying to choose a product/service among a variety of options, and making purchase decisions. With smartphones bringing such changes and challenges to the market, especially to the companies and stores, it is important to understand market trends in order to retain the loyalty of existing customers as well as to attract new buyers. Therefore, companies and stores should offer enhanced and better technical service quality, along with the use of tools such as QR codes. Further, mobile based websites would offer a suitable approach in assisting customers using smartphones to obtain better information of greater value. The results of this study imply that there is an opportunity for organizations to design various methods of imparting customer education by using smartphones, such as loading applications on a smartphone that lead to more information with good quality and present real benefits regarding the products/services.

Post-TPP Trade Policy Options for ASEAN and its Dialogue Partners: "Preference Ordering" Using CGE Analysis

  • Ji, Xianbai;Rana, Pradumna B.;Chia, Wai-Mun;Li, Changtai
    • East Asian Economic Review
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.177-215
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    • 2018
  • Trump's withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and his "America First" trade agenda ignite a second round of interest in mega-free trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific. Countries are evaluating alternative trade policy actions in a post-TPP era. Using national real GDP gains estimated by a modified GTAP model to construct "preference ordering" for 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and their six regional dialogue partners, this paper comes up with several policy-oriented findings. First, when multilateral agreements are not possible, countries are better off with a regional trading agreement than without one. Second, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership is likely to have higher beneficial impacts than the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership. Third, for dual-track countries, implementing both agreements is better than each separately. Fourth, impacts of open regionalism are likely to be higher than those of a closed and reciprocal one. Going forward, this paper argues that countries should adopt a "multi-track, multi-stage" approach to trade policy.

Conceptual Design Trade Offs between Solid and Liquid Propulsion for Optimal Stage Configuration of Satellite Launch Vehicle

  • Qasim, Zeeshan;Dong, Yunfeng
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Propulsion Engineers Conference
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    • 2008.03a
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    • pp.283-292
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    • 2008
  • The foremost criterion in the design of a Satellite Launch Vehicle(SLV) is its performance capability to boost the designated payload to the desired mission orbit; it starts from focusing on the SLV configuration to achieve the velocity requirements($}\Delta}V$) for the mission. In this paper we review an analytical approach which is suitable enough for preliminary conceptual design and is used previously to optimize stage configurations for Two Stage to Orbit SLV for Low Earth Orbit(LEO) Missions; we have extended this approach to Three Stage to Orbit SLV and compared different propellant options for the mission. The objective is to minimize the Gross Lift off Weight(GLOW). The primary performance figures of merit were the total inert weight of the SLV and the payload weight that the SLV could lift into LEO, given candidate propulsion systems. The optimization is achieved by configuring the $}\Delta}V$ between stages. A comparison of configurations of single-stage and multi-stage SLVs is made for different propellants. Based upon the optimized stage configurations a comparative performance analysis is made between Liquid and Solid fueled SLV. A 3 degree of freedom trajectory-analysis program is modeled in SIMULINK and used to conduct the performance analysis. Furthermore, a cost analysis is performed on our stage optimized SLVs. The cost estimation relationships(CER) used give us a comparison of development and fabrication costs for the Liquid vs. Solid fueled SLV in man years. The pros and cons of the production, operation ability, performance, responsiveness, logistics, price, shelf life, storage etc of both Solid and Liquid fueled SLVs are discussed. The statistics and data are used from existing or historical(real) SLV stages.

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