• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.195-204
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• 2014

The transition from fossil to renewable energy is inevitable due to fossil depletion. So, Renewable energy is very important for energy security and economic growth although it's R&D is long-term and high risky project. We propose new valuation method which combined system dynamics and compound real option method for long-term and high risk projects such as renewable energy. This method can show dynamic valuation results for the complex causal interaction and be easy for Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate volatility. And it can reflect the value of flexible decision for uncertainty. We applied the empirical analysis for Korea's photovoltaic industry by using this method. As results by empirical analysis, photovoltaic's R&D has high valuation using this method compared by traditional valuation methods such as DCF.

• International conference on construction engineering and project management
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• 2013.01a
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• pp.129-132
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• 2013

Determining on a particular construction method is typically decided in the initial phases of a project. However, changing conditions during actual construction may require a different method or technology to be employed. Providing an option for project managers to change construction provides flexibility that can increase value to the overall project. This research provides the ability to modify construction methods as a real option, which allows its value to be modeled. The research also formalizes a way to integrate a binomial lattice model with the Earned Value Method's S-curve. The integrated model provides a decision support tool that planners can use to determine whether to exercise the option depending on the status metrics provided by EVM.

• Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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• v.22 no.6
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• pp.87-95
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• 2021

This study analyzed economic feasibility using the real options theory of the eco-environment area project in Saemangeum. I defined the main factors affecting project sales during the 30 years operation period. The real option-based analysis is proposed through the managerial flexibility by estimating the volatility of project sales using scenarios analysis method. The number of visitors, admission fee, leisure program fee, and O&M costs required for economic analysis of eco-environment park were analyzed by reviewing cases of similar eco-environment parks in Korea. The option value is calculated by assuming that the developers have an option right that can be abandoned. B/C is less than 1 and NPV is negative, so it is impossible to proceed with the project using the traditional economic analysis. The project value difference between NPV (-46.6 billion Won) and option value (28.1 billion Won) increased by 74.7 billion Won. Through this study, decision-makers of public institutions and private developers who plan eco-environment area projects will be able to use the real option technique proposed in this study.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.5 no.2
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• pp.141-151
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• 2002

Many technology investment projects can be considered as set of sequential options. A compound real option can be used for evaluating sequential technology investment decisions under significant uncertainty and measuring its value. In this paper, the formula developed by Geske and Johnson(1984) and Buraschi and Dumas(2001) was applied to evaluate the technology investment with related double real option. Also double real option was com-pared with net present value method and multiple linear regression model was used to assess the partial effects of risk free rate and log-term volatility on its value.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.217-244
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• 2003

As energy industry is undergoing a rapid structural changes, economic feasibility analysis based on the conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) method has limitations to incorporate management's flexibilities. We present a real options pricing method (ROPM) which can be applied to an energy sector as an alternative. In order to examine the usefulness of ROPM, this study compares the result of DCF method applied to the investment of cogeneration power plant with that based on the ROPM incorporating the value of real of options inherent in the project. The simulation results show that the value of investment opportunities improves using ROPM compared to that with the conventional DCF methods. Therefore, a specific project which appears to be unprofitable from the conventional point of view could be, actually, an economically feasible one based on ROPM method, when properly incorporating the management's flexibilities inherent in the project.

• Bulletin of the Korean Mathematical Society
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• v.53 no.5
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• pp.1411-1425
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• 2016

We provide a partial differential equation for European options on a stock whose price process follows a general geometric Riemannian Brownian motion. The existence and the uniqueness of solutions to the partial differential equation are investigated, and then an expression of the value for European options is obtained using the fundamental solution technique. Proper Riemannian metrics on the real number field can make the distribution of return rates of the stock induced by our model have the character of leptokurtosis and fat-tail; in addition, they can also explain option pricing bias and implied volatility smile (skew).

• The Pure and Applied Mathematics
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• v.22 no.3
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• pp.299-313
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• 2015

In this paper, we show the effectiveness of copulas by comparing the correlation of market data of year 2010 with those of years 2006-2009 and investigate copula functions as pricing methods of digital and rainbow options through real market data. We propose an accurate method of pricing rainbow options by using the correlation coefficients obtained from the copula functions depending on strike prices between assetes instead of simple traditional correlation coefficients.

• Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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• v.10 no.2
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• pp.5-12
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• 2010

Unlike housing development project that can ensure profit by selling built units, a hotel development depends on long-term business operation to be profitable due to characteristics of service industry. The expected cash flow has substantial uncertainty depending on room occupancy rate and room charge. Thus, even after construction is complete, business risk tends to rise. It is necessary to ensure strategic response to uncertainty in future value of a hotel. The objective of the study is to explore strategic measures to deal with risk and uncertain future value in hotel development project by adopting abandonment option, which is a type of real options. The case in analysis had sevenyears of project period: Two years for construction, and five years for operation; a plan was made to sell the hotel after five years' of operation. For the research purpose, option value ofrecoverable investment amount was estimated, and value of abandonment option was KRW 124.921 billion. When abandonment option is applied, the project value was deemed to be KRW 120.592 billion. Generally, the amount of loss is enormous when a real estate project like a hotel development fails, and therefore, application of option is expected to be an effective measure to leverage uncertainty of a project.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.8 no.1
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• pp.29-50
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• 2005

Real options provide a new and productive way to view corporate r&d investment decisions. DCF approach is well established and beloved of financial executives, but is known to systematically underestimate investment value under significant uncertainty. Though real options are not inherent in a r&d investment, they can be used to compute the investment value including managerial flexibility like option value. In this paper, we explain how the interval of option value in black-scholes model can be estimated using simulation. We also present a process framework for interval estimation of volatility and efficient of period of investment value. In such a setting, we can obtain the appropriate interval estimation of the expanded investment value.

• Journal of the Korean Operations Research and Management Science Society
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• v.34 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2009

Consumers earn a number of points for every purchase and then they can exchange a specified number of points for a desired reward in a typical loyalty program. The immediate payoff of their effort given as points is not the real reward they actually care about. It is merely an instrument (or medium) which has no value in itself. In a real world, consumers frequently choose the option with a bigger medium even though the economic value of the option is not changed by the medium. We call it 'medium effect.' In this study we explored if the size of medium affects consumers' preferences. For this we controlled the reward options with three types of medium (small, medium, big) and measured the magnitude of preference difference among the three types of reward options. In addition, we manipulated comparability of reward options with wine and gas discount coupon. We confirmed that choosing one of two wines was easier than that of the two gas coupons. 123 respondents were allocated into three experimental groups. In three experimental grounds, the ratios of the focused reward option's medium to the compared reward option's medium were different. For example, the focused reward option has 10 million points whereas the compared reward option has 10 million points for 1 million won purchase amount in the first group. Then each respondent was asked to choose one of two loyalty programs (focused program vs. compared program) in two different conditions (comparability between reward options. easiness vs. difficulty). To compare the medium effects among the experiment conditions we used chi-squares tests. The empirical results show consumer preference increases and then decreases as reward mile-ages/points given according to purchase amount increase. Additionally, they let us know that comparability of alter natives affects change of consumer preference by reward mileages/points.