• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rating Prediction

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Prediction of Forest Fire Danger Rating over the Korean Peninsula with the Digital Forecast Data and Daily Weather Index (DWI) Model (디지털예보자료와 Daily Weather Index (DWI) 모델을 적용한 한반도의 산불발생위험 예측)

  • Won, Myoung-Soo;Lee, Myung-Bo;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yoon, Suk-Hee
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2012
  • Digital Forecast of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) represents 5 km gridded weather forecast over the Korean Peninsula and the surrounding oceanic regions in Korean territory. Digital Forecast provides 12 weather forecast elements such as three-hour interval temperature, sky condition, wind direction, wind speed, relative humidity, wave height, probability of precipitation, 12 hour accumulated rain and snow, as well as daily minimum and maximum temperatures. These forecast elements are updated every three-hour for the next 48 hours regularly. The objective of this study was to construct Forest Fire Danger Rating Systems on the Korean Peninsula (FFDRS_KORP) based on the daily weather index (DWI) and to improve the accuracy using the digital forecast data. We produced the thematic maps of temperature, humidity, and wind speed over the Korean Peninsula to analyze DWI. To calculate DWI of the Korean Peninsula it was applied forest fire occurrence probability model by logistic regression analysis, i.e. $[1+{\exp}\{-(2.494+(0.004{\times}T_{max})-(0.008{\times}EF))\}]^{-1}$. The result of verification test among the real-time observatory data, digital forecast and RDAPS data showed that predicting values of the digital forecast advanced more than those of RDAPS data. The results of the comparison with the average forest fire danger rating index (sampled at 233 administrative districts) and those with the digital weather showed higher relative accuracy than those with the RDAPS data. The coefficient of determination of forest fire danger rating was shown as $R^2$=0.854. There was a difference of 0.5 between the national mean fire danger rating index (70) with the application of the real-time observatory data and that with the digital forecast (70.5).

Conflict of Interests and Analysts' Forecast (이해상충과 애널리스트 예측)

  • Park, Chang-Gyun;Youn, Taehoon
    • KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.239-276
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    • 2009
  • The paper investigates the possible relationship between earnings prediction by security analysts and special ownership ties that link security companies those analysts belong to and firms under analysis. "Security analysts" are known best for their role as information producers in stock markets where imperfect information is prevalent and transaction costs are high. In such a market, changes in the fundamental value of a company are not spontaneously reflected in the stock price, and the security analysts actively produce and distribute the relevant information crucial for the price mechanism to operate efficiently. Therefore, securing the fairness and accuracy of information they provide is very important for efficiencyof resource allocation as well as protection of investors who are excluded from the special relationship. Evidence of systematic distortion of information by the special tie naturally calls for regulatory intervention, if found. However, one cannot presuppose the existence of distorted information based on the common ownership between the appraiser and the appraisee. Reputation effect is especially cherished by security firms and among analysts as indispensable intangible asset in the industry, and the incentive to maintain good reputation by providing accurate earnings prediction may overweigh the incentive to offer favorable rating or stock recommendation for the firms that are affiliated by common ownership. This study shares the theme of existing literature concerning the effect of conflict of interests on the accuracy of analyst's predictions. This study, however, focuses on the potential conflict of interest situation that may originate from the Korea-specific ownership structure of large conglomerates. Utilizing an extensive database of analysts' reports provided by WiseFn(R) in Korea, we perform empirical analysis of potential relationship between earnings prediction and common ownership. We first analyzed the prediction bias index which tells how optimistic or friendly the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings. It is shown that there exists no statistically significant relationship between the prediction bias and common ownership. This is a rather surprising result since it is observed that the frequency of positive prediction bias is higher with such ownership tie. Next, we analyzed the prediction accuracy index which shows how accurate the analyst's prediction is compared to the realized earnings regardless of its sign. It is also concluded that there is no significant association between the accuracy ofearnings prediction and special relationship. We interpret the results implying that market discipline based on reputation effect is working in Korean stock market in the sense that security companies do not seem to be influenced by an incentive to offer distorted information on affiliated firms. While many of the existing studies confirm the relationship between the ability of the analystand the accuracy of the analyst's prediction, these factors cannot be controlled in the above analysis due to the lack of relevant data. As an indirect way to examine the possibility that such relationship might have distorted the result, we perform an additional but identical analysis based on a sub-sample consisting only of reports by best analysts. The result also confirms the earlier conclusion that the common ownership structure does not affect the accuracy and bias of earnings prediction by the analyst.

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Incorporating Social Relationship discovered from User's Behavior into Collaborative Filtering (사용자 행동 기반의 사회적 관계를 결합한 사용자 협업적 여과 방법)

  • Thay, Setha;Ha, Inay;Jo, Geun-Sik
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.1-20
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    • 2013
  • Nowadays, social network is a huge communication platform for providing people to connect with one another and to bring users together to share common interests, experiences, and their daily activities. Users spend hours per day in maintaining personal information and interacting with other people via posting, commenting, messaging, games, social events, and applications. Due to the growth of user's distributed information in social network, there is a great potential to utilize the social data to enhance the quality of recommender system. There are some researches focusing on social network analysis that investigate how social network can be used in recommendation domain. Among these researches, we are interested in taking advantages of the interaction between a user and others in social network that can be determined and known as social relationship. Furthermore, mostly user's decisions before purchasing some products depend on suggestion of people who have either the same preferences or closer relationship. For this reason, we believe that user's relationship in social network can provide an effective way to increase the quality in prediction user's interests of recommender system. Therefore, social relationship between users encountered from social network is a common factor to improve the way of predicting user's preferences in the conventional approach. Recommender system is dramatically increasing in popularity and currently being used by many e-commerce sites such as Amazon.com, Last.fm, eBay.com, etc. Collaborative filtering (CF) method is one of the essential and powerful techniques in recommender system for suggesting the appropriate items to user by learning user's preferences. CF method focuses on user data and generates automatic prediction about user's interests by gathering information from users who share similar background and preferences. Specifically, the intension of CF method is to find users who have similar preferences and to suggest target user items that were mostly preferred by those nearest neighbor users. There are two basic units that need to be considered by CF method, the user and the item. Each user needs to provide his rating value on items i.e. movies, products, books, etc to indicate their interests on those items. In addition, CF uses the user-rating matrix to find a group of users who have similar rating with target user. Then, it predicts unknown rating value for items that target user has not rated. Currently, CF has been successfully implemented in both information filtering and e-commerce applications. However, it remains some important challenges such as cold start, data sparsity, and scalability reflected on quality and accuracy of prediction. In order to overcome these challenges, many researchers have proposed various kinds of CF method such as hybrid CF, trust-based CF, social network-based CF, etc. In the purpose of improving the recommendation performance and prediction accuracy of standard CF, in this paper we propose a method which integrates traditional CF technique with social relationship between users discovered from user's behavior in social network i.e. Facebook. We identify user's relationship from behavior of user such as posts and comments interacted with friends in Facebook. We believe that social relationship implicitly inferred from user's behavior can be likely applied to compensate the limitation of conventional approach. Therefore, we extract posts and comments of each user by using Facebook Graph API and calculate feature score among each term to obtain feature vector for computing similarity of user. Then, we combine the result with similarity value computed using traditional CF technique. Finally, our system provides a list of recommended items according to neighbor users who have the biggest total similarity value to the target user. In order to verify and evaluate our proposed method we have performed an experiment on data collected from our Movies Rating System. Prediction accuracy evaluation is conducted to demonstrate how much our algorithm gives the correctness of recommendation to user in terms of MAE. Then, the evaluation of performance is made to show the effectiveness of our method in terms of precision, recall, and F1-measure. Evaluation on coverage is also included in our experiment to see the ability of generating recommendation. The experimental results show that our proposed method outperform and more accurate in suggesting items to users with better performance. The effectiveness of user's behavior in social network particularly shows the significant improvement by up to 6% on recommendation accuracy. Moreover, experiment of recommendation performance shows that incorporating social relationship observed from user's behavior into CF is beneficial and useful to generate recommendation with 7% improvement of performance compared with benchmark methods. Finally, we confirm that interaction between users in social network is able to enhance the accuracy and give better recommendation in conventional approach.

Application of Back Analysis for Tunnel Design by Modified In Situ Rock Model (현장암반 모델을 적용한 터널의 역해석)

  • Kim, Hak-Mun;Lee, Bong-Yeol;Hwang, Ui-Seok;Kim, Tae-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.2 no.3
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    • pp.25-36
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    • 2000
  • The purpose of this research work is to propose an analytical method of tunnel design based on reasonable site data. Therefore the proposed design method consists of monitoring data and Modified In Situ Rock Model. Also the Rock Mass Rating for very poor quality rock is very difficult to estimate, the balances between the ratings may no longer gives a reliable basis for the rock mass strength. But in reality Rock Mass Rating is only the property which can be obtained from face mapping records of the exposed tunnel face during construction stage. Evaluation of rock parameters for the actual design prior to tunnel construction should be corrected during tunnelling process in particularly complex ground conditions. This study intends to investigate application of in-situ rock model to soft rock tunnelling (weathered rock) by face mapping results and site measurement data that are obtained at the costraction site of Seoul Subway Tunnel. For the preparation of more reliable ground parameters, the Rock Mass Rating values for the weathered rocks were modified and readjusted in accordance with the measurement data. The modified input parameters obtained by the proposed method are used for the prediction of the tunnel behavior at subsequent construction stages. The results of this study revealed that more reasonable feed back tunnel analysis can be possible as suggested. Ample measurement data would be able to confirm the new proposed technique in this research work.

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A Study on Prediction of Inundation Area considering Road Network in Urban Area (도시지역 도로 네트워크를 활용한 침수지역 예측에 관한 연구)

  • Son, Ah Long;Kim, Byunghyun;Han, Kun Yeon
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.307-318
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    • 2015
  • In this study, the efficiency of two-dimensional inundation analysis using road network was demonstrated in order to reduce the simulation time of numerical model in urban area. For this objective, three simulation conditions were set up: Case 1 considered only inundation within road zone, while Case 2 and 3 considered inundation within road and building zone together. Accordingly, Case 1 used grids generated based on road network, while Case 2 and 3 used uniform and non-uniform grids for whole study area, respectively. Three simulation conditions were applied to Samsung drainage where flood damage occurred due to storm event on Sep. 21, 2010. The efficiency of suggested method in this study was verified by comparison the accuracy and simulation time of Case 1 and those of Case 2 and 3. The results presented that the simulation time was fast in the order of Case 1, 2 and 3, and the fit of inundation area between each case was more than 85% within road zone. Additionally, inundation area of building zone estimated from inundation rating index gave a similar agreement under each case. As a result, it is helpful for study on real-time inundation forecast warning to use a proposed method based on road network and inundation rating index for building zone.

Study on Collaborative Filtering Algorithm Considering Temporal Variation of User Preference (사용자 성향의 시간적 변화를 고려한 협업 필터링 알고리즘에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Young-Yong;Lee, Hak-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.13 no.5
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    • pp.526-529
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    • 2003
  • Recommender systems or collaborative filtering are methods to identify potentially interesting or valuable items to a particular user Under the assumption that people with similar interest tend to like the similar types of items, these methods use a database on the preference of a set of users and predict the rating on the items that the user has not rated. Usually the preference of a particular user is liable to vary with time and this temporal variation may cause an inaccurate identification and prediction. In this paper we propose a method to adapt the temporal variation of the user preference in order to improve the predictive performance of a collaborative filtering algorithm. To be more specific, the correlation weight of the GroupLens system which is a general formulation of statistical collaborative filtering algorithm is modified to reflect only recent similarity between two user. The proposed method is evaluated for EachMovie dataset and shows much better prediction results compared with GrouPLens system.

A Prediction System of User Preferences for Newly Released Items Based on Words (새로 출시되는 품목들을 위한 단어 기반의 사용자 선호도 예측 기법)

  • Choi, Yoon-Seok;Moon, Byung-Ro
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.156-163
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    • 2006
  • CF systems are widely used in recommendation due to the easy implementation and the outstanding performance. They have several problems such as the sparsity problem, the first-rater problem, and recommending explanation. Many studies are suggested to resolve these problems. While the influence of the sparsity problem lessens as the users' data are accumulated, but the first-rater problem is originated from the CF systems and there are a number of researches to overcome the disadvantages of CF systems based on the content-based methods. Also CF systems are black boxes, providing no explanation of working of the recommendation. In this paper we present a content-based prediction system based on the preference words, which exposes the reasoning behind a recommendation. Our system predicts user's rating of a new movie and we suggest a semiotic network-based method to solve the mismatching problem between the items. For experimental comparison, we used EachMovie and IMDb dataset.

Similarity Measure based on Utilization of Rating Distributions for Data Sparsity Problem in Collaborative Filtering

  • Lee, Soojung
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.25 no.12
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    • pp.203-210
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    • 2020
  • Memory-based collaborative filtering is one of the representative types of the recommender system, but it suffers from the inherent problem of data sparsity. Although many works have been devoted to solving this problem, there is still a request for more systematic approaches to the problem. This study exploits distribution of user ratings given to items for computing similarity. All user ratings are utilized in the proposed method, compared to previous ones which use ratings for only common items between users. Moreover, for similarity computation, it takes a global view of ratings for items by reflecting other users' ratings for that item. Performance is evaluated through experiments and compared to that of other relevant methods. The results reveal that the proposed demonstrates superior performance in prediction and rank accuracies. This improvement in prediction accuracy is as high as 2.6 times more than that achieved by the state-of-the-art method over the traditional similarity measures.

A Condition Rating Method of Bridges using an Artificial Neural Network Model (인공신경망모델을 이용한 교량의 상태평가)

  • Oh, Soon-Taek;Lee, Dong-Jun;Lee, Jae-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Railway
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.71-77
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    • 2010
  • It is increasing annually that the cost for bridge Maintenance Repair & Rehabilitation (MR&R) in developed countries. Based on Intelligent Technology, Bridge Management System (BMS) is developed for optimization of Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and reliability to predict long-term bridge deteriorations. However, such data are very limited amongst all the known bridge agencies, making it difficult to reliably predict future structural performances. To alleviate this problem, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based Backward Prediction Model (BPM) for generating missing historical condition ratings has been developed. Its reliability has been verified using existing condition ratings from the Maryland Department of Transportation, USA. The function of the BPM is to establish the correlations between the known condition ratings and such non-bridge factors as climate and traffic volumes, which can then be used to obtain the bridge condition ratings of the missing years. Since the non-bridge factors used in the BPM can influence the variation of the bridge condition ratings, well-selected non-bridge factors are critical for the BPM to function effectively based on the minimized discrepancy rate between the BPM prediction result and existing data (deck; 6.68%, superstructure; 6.61%, substructure; 7.52%). This research is on the generation of usable historical data using Artificial Intelligence techniques to reliably predict future bridge deterioration. The outcomes (Long-term Bridge deterioration Prediction) will help bridge authorities to effectively plan maintenance strategies for obtaining the maximum benefit with limited funds.

CFD Analysis of 72.5kV${\sim}$800kV GIS with Moving Grid (이동격자를 이용한 72.5kV${\sim}$800kv 초고압 차단기 유동해석)

  • Yoon, J.H.;Choi, B.H.;Lee, K.H.;Yoon, C.Y.;Koh, K.S.;Min, B.S.;Park, I.S.
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2002.07b
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    • pp.799-801
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    • 2002
  • To develop GIS (Gas Insulated Switchgear), prediction of the flow field including pressure in GIS is very important. The transport phenomena in GIS including arc is also being studied in these days. In this study, to predict the arc behaviour for GIS with voltage rating up to 800kV developed by HHI (Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd.), the analysis of flow and electric field in GIS were investigated. To simulate the compressible flow in GIS, the CFX, commercial CFD code, was used. The movement of the piston and the electrode of the GIS was simulated with moving grid method, which was superior to the method of varying the property of cells in the aspect of accuracy and convergence of solution. The calculated maximum pressure within the puffer cylinder was matched with experimental data within 5% error. Also, the oscillation of pressure in GIS after the movement of electrode was well predicted.

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