• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제20권3호
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• pp.459-487
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• 2011

포스트 교토체제에서는 A/R CDM 등 산림 분야의 중요성이 증대할 것으로 전망된다. A/R CDM에 대한 정확한 경제성 평가는 투자의사결정에 유용한 정보를 제공하여 투자 활성화로 이어질 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 전통적 경제성 평가 방법이 간과한 의사결정자의 의사결정권의 가치 내지 기다림의 가치를 반영한 실물옵션 방법에 의해 모형을 구축하고 실제 A/R CDM 사례를 적용하여 실증분석을 하였다. 그 결과 적용 사례의 경우 최적투자분기점이 추정된 l-CER의 가격보다 낮게 나타남으로써 적절한 투자의사결정이 이루어졌음을 알 수 있었다. 그러나 할인율의 수준과 적용 범위에 따라 최적투자분기점과 투자의사결정이 크게 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다.

• International Journal of Aeronautical and Space Sciences
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• 제17권2호
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• pp.268-283
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• 2016

Aircraft manufacturing companies have to consider multiple derivatives to satisfy various market requirements. They modify or extend an existing aircraft to meet new market demands while keeping the development time and cost to a minimum. Many researchers have studied the derivative design process, but these research efforts consider baseline and derivative designs together, while using the whole set of design variables. Therefore, an efficient process that can reduce cost and time for aircraft derivative design is needed. In this research, a more efficient design process is proposed which obtains global changes from local changes in aircraft design in order to develop aircraft derivatives efficiently. Sensitivity analysis was introduced to remove unnecessary design variables that have a low impact on the objective function. This prevented wasting computational effort and time on low priority variables for design requirements and objectives. Additionally, uncertainty from the fidelity of analysis tools was considered in design optimization to increase the probability of optimization results. The Reliability Based Design Optimization (RBDO) and Possibility Based Design Optimization (PBDO) methods were proposed to handle the uncertainty in aircraft conceptual design optimization. In this paper, Collaborative Optimization (CO) based framework with RBDO and PBDO was implemented to consider uncertainty. The proposed method was applied for civil jet aircraft derivative design that increases cruise range and the number of passengers. The proposed process provided deterministic design optimization, RBDO, and PBDO results for given requirements.

• 대기
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.1-18
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• 2015

The most objective way to overcome the limitation of numerical weather prediction model is to represent the uncertainty of prediction by introducing probabilistic forecast. The uncertainty of the numerical weather prediction system developed due to the parameterization of unresolved scale motions and the energy losses from the sub-scale physical processes. In this study, we focused on the growth of model errors. We performed ensemble forecast to represent model uncertainty. By employing the multi-physics scheme (PHYS) and the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter scheme (SKEBS) in simulating typhoon Rusa (2002), we assessed the performance level of the two schemes. The both schemes produced better results than the control run did in the ensemble mean forecast of the track. The results using PHYS improved by 28% and those based on SKEBS did by 7%. Both of the ensemble mean errors of the both schemes increased rapidly at the forecast time 84 hrs. The both ensemble spreads increased gradually during integration. The results based on SKEBS represented model errors very well during the forecast time of 96 hrs. After the period, it produced an under-dispersive pattern. The simulation based on PHYS overestimated the ensemble mean error during integration and represented the real situation well at the forecast time of 120 hrs. The displacement speed of the typhoon based on PHYS was closest to the best track, especially after landfall. In the sensitivity tests of the model uncertainty of SKEBS, ensemble mean forecast was sensitive to the physics parameterization. By adjusting the forcing parameter of SKEBS, the default experiment improved in the ensemble spread, ensemble mean errors, and moving speed.

• 한국안전학회지
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• 제29권6호
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• pp.166-171
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• 2014

Nuclear power plants are equipped with the reactor trip system (RTS) and the engineered safety features actuation system (ESFAS) to improve safety on the normal operation. In the event of the design basis accident (DBA), a various of post accident monitor(PAM)systems support to provide important details (e.g. Containment pressure, temperature and pressure of reactor cooling system and core exit temperature) to determine action of main control room (MCR). Operator should be immediately activated for the accident mitigation with the information. Especially, core exit temperature is a critical parameter because the operating mode converts from normal mode to emergency mode when the temperature of core exit reaches $649^{\circ}C$. In this study, uncertainty which was caused by exterior environment, characteristic of thermocouple/connector and accuracy of calibrator/indicator was evaluated in accordance with ANSI-ISA 67.04. The square root of the sum of square (SRSS) methodology for combining uncertainty terms that are random and independent was used in the synthesis. Every uncertainty that may exist in the hardware which is used to measure the core exit temperature was conservatively applied and the associative relation between the elements of uncertainty was considered simultaneously. As a result of uncertainty evaluation, the channel statistical allowance (CSA) of single channel of core exit temperature was +1.042%Span. The range of uncertainty, -0.35%Span ($-4.05^{\circ}C$) ~ +2.08%Span($24.25^{\circ}C$), was obtained as the operating criteria of core exit temperature.

• 한국유체기계학회 논문집
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• 제19권2호
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• pp.5-10
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• 2016

Gas flow measurement in a closed duct was performed using multi-point Pitot tubes. Measurement uncertainty was assessed for this measurement method. The method was applied for the measurement of air flow into a gas turbine engine in an altitude engine test facility. 46 Pitot tubes, 15 total temperature Kiel probes and 9 static pressure tabs were installed in the engine inlet duct of inner diameter of 264 mm. Five tests were done in an airflow range of 2~10 kg/s. The flow was compressible and the Reynolds numbers were between 450,000 and 2,220,000. The measurement uncertainty was the highest as 6.1% for the lowest flow rate, and lowest as 0.8% for the highest flow rate. This is because the difference between the total and static pressures, which is also related to the flow velocity, becomes almost zero for low flow rate cases. It was found that this measurement method can be used only when the flow velocity is relatively high, e.g., 50 m/s. Static pressure was the most influencing parameter on the flow rate measurement uncertainty. Temperature measurement uncertainty was not very important. Measurement of boundary layer was found to be important for this type of flow rate measurement method. But measurement of flow non-uniformity was not very important provided that the non-uniformity has random behavior in the duct.

• 한국통신학회논문지
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• 제39A권9호
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• pp.519-527
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• 2014

적응 어레이는 조향벡터를 이용하여 조향벡터 방향의 신호는 보호하면서 간섭신호를 제거한다. 조향벡터에 에러가 있으면 원하는 신호도 감쇠되어 SINR(signal-to-interference-plus-noise ratio) 성능 저하를 가져온다. 본 논문에서는 원하는 신호의 도래범위를 이용하여 조향벡터 에러에 강인한 적응 빔 형성 기법을 제시한다. 제시된 기법에서는 도래범위에서 어레이 응답벡터에 관한 상관행렬을 적분을 통해 구하고, 이 상관행렬의 고유벡터 일부를 이용하여 조향벡터를 구하기 위한 최소화 문제를 정의한다. 이 최소화 문제를 컨벡스 최적화(convex optimization)의 일종인 SDP(semidefinite program) 문제로 완화하여 효과적으로 해결한다. 시뮬레이션 결과에 따르면, 제안방식은 기존의 강인한 빔 형성 방식인 ORM(outside-range-based method), USM(uncertainty-based method)보다 우수한 SINR 성능을 나타낸다.

• 제어로봇시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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• 제어로봇시스템학회 1997년도 한국자동제어학술회의논문집; 한국전력공사 서울연수원; 17-18 Oct. 1997
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• pp.375-378
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• 1997

This research deals with a problem of reconstructing 3D surface structures from their 2D projections, which is an important research topic in computer vision. In order to provide robust reconstruction algorithm, that is reliable even in the presence of uncertainty in the range images, we first present a detailed model and analysis of several error sources and their effects on measuring three-dimensional surface properties using the space encoded range imaging technique. Our approach has two key elements. The first is the error modeling for the space encoding range sensor and its propagation to the 3D surface reconstruction problem. The second key element in our approach is the algorithm for removing outliers in the range image. Such analyses, to our knowledge, have never attempted before. Experimental results show that our approach is significantly reliable.

• 분석과학
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• 제16권6호
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• pp.475-482
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• 2003

혈액 시료 중의 다이옥신 농도를 분석하는 과정에서 있을 수 있는 중요한 오차요인들을 고려하여 최종적인 측정 결과에 대한 불확도를 구하였다. 불확도의 평가 원리는 측정 불확도 표현 지침서를 따랐으며, 불확도를 구하는 방법도 이 지침서를 참고하여 수행되었다. 각 측정 과정의 불확도 요인을 고려하여 다이옥신 및 퓨란의 주요 17가지 이성질체 중 이 실험에서 농도가 검출된 11가지 이성질체에 한하여 각각에 대한 불확도를 구한 후, 이 값들을 합성하여 총 다이옥신 농도에 대한 불확도를 구하였다. 이렇게 하여 얻은 불확도를 함께 나타낸 최종 다이옥신 농도는 $0.0746{\pm}0.0074pg$ I-TEQ/g weight 또는 $20.68{\pm}2.04pg$ I-TEQ/g lipid 이었다. 전자는 시료의 무게당 환산농도로 나타낸 것이며, 후자는 지방의 무게당 환산농도로 나타낸 것이다. 이와 같이, 측정 결과에 대한 불확도를 구하여 측정량의 존재 범위를 나타냄으로써 분석 결과의 품질을 정량적으로 보증할 수 있다.

• 한국음향학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국음향학회 1984년도 추계학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.100-106
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• 1984

Traditional methods for estimating the location of underwater target, i.e. the triangulation method and the wavefront curvature method, have been utilized. The location of a target is defined by the range and the bearing, which estimates can be obtained by evaluating the time delay between neighboring sensors. Many components of error occur in estimating the target range, among which the error due to the fluctuation of heading angle is outstanding. In this paper, the wavefront curvature method was used. We considered the error due to the heading fluctuation as the $\beta$-density process, from which we analized the range estimates with $\beta$-density function exist in some finite limits, and its mean value and variation are depicted as a function of true range and heading fluctuation. Given heading angles and sensor separation, maximum estimated heading errors are presented as a function of true range.

• 한국광학회지
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.110-117
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• 2009

본 논문은 광원 및 디스플레이 기기의 중요한 품질 지표 중 하나인 색특성 측정과 관련하여 대표적인 측정량인 CIE 1931(x, y) 색좌표, CIE 1960(u, v) 색좌표, 상관색온도(correlated color temperature, CCT), 분포온도(distribution temperature)에 대한 측정불확도 평가방법과 그 산출 예를 소개한다. 분광복사계를 사용하여 광원의 상대분광분포를 측정하고 이로부터 위의 색특성 측정량을 계산하는 경우에 대하여 표준소급체계를 소개하고, 상대분광분포의 불확도가 각 색특성 측정량의 불확도로 전파되는 과정을 파장간 상관관계를 고려한 행렬식을 이용하여 일관되게 유도한 후, CIE A 표준광원, LED 백색광, LCD 백색광에 대해 측정불확도 산출 예를 보였다.