• Ocean and Polar Research
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.53-63
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• 2021

Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the medium-range (months to years) prediction of the marine environment Using a medium-range ocean prediction model (Ocean Mid-range prediction System, OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal difference in the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korea seas characterized as a complex marine system. A three-month re-forecast experiment was conducted for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, forced with Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. The assessment using relative root-mean-square-error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Korea seas SST, particularly in the Yellow sea mainly due to a more realistic representation of the topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in the warm seasons (spring and summer) than in the cold seasons (fall and winter), suggesting seasonal dependency in predictability of the Korea seas. In addition, the mid-range predictability for the Korea seas significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korea seas by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• 제6권4호
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• pp.190-194
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• 2018

The runway visual range is one of the important factors that decide the possibility of taking offs and landings of the airplane at local airports. The runway visual range is affected by weather conditions like fog, wind, etc. The pilots and aviation related workers check a local weather forecast such as runway visual range for safe flight. However there are several local airfields at which no other forecasting functions are provided due to realistic problems like the deterioration, breakdown, expensive purchasing cost of the measurement equipment. To this end, this study proposes a prediction model of runway visual range for a local airport by applying convolutional neural network that has been most commonly used for image/video recognition, image classification, natural language processing and so on to the prediction of runway visual range. For constituting the prediction model, we use the previous time series data of wind speed, humidity, temperature and runway visibility. This paper shows the usefulness of the proposed prediction model of runway visual range by comparing with the measured data.

• 한국생물정보학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국생물정보시스템생물학회 2005년도 BIOINFO 2005
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• pp.287-293
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• 2005

Predicting RNA secondary structure as accurately as possible is very important in functional analysis of RNA molecules. However, different prediction methods and related parameters including terminal GU pair of helices, minimum length of helices, and free energy systems often give different prediction results for the same RNA sequence. Then, which structure is more important than the others? i.e. which combinations of the methods and related parameters are the optimal? In order to investigate above problems, first, three prediction methods, namely, random stacking of helical regions (RS), helical regions distribution (HD), and Zuker's minimum free energy algorithm (ZMFE) were compared by taking 1139 tRNA sequences from Rfam database as the samples with different combinations of parameters. The optimal parameters are derived. Second, Zuker's dynamic programming method for prediction of RNA secondary structure was revised using the above optimal parameters and related software BJRNAFold was developed. Third, the effects of short-range interaction were studied. The results indicated that the prediction accuracy would be improved much if proper short-range factor were introduced. But the optimal short-range factor was difficult to determine. A user-adjustable parameter for short-range factor was introduced in BJRNAFold software.

• 한국음향학회지
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• 제16권4호
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• pp.29-34
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• 1997

원거리에서 수동소나에 의한 탐지거리를 예측하기 위해서는 소나방정식이 이용된다. 본 연구에서는 거리와 깊이함수의 신호이득 및 탐지확률을 구한 후 이를 거리로 적분하여 거리의존 해양환경에서 탐지거리를 계산하는 탐지거리 예측모델을 개발하였다. 개발된 모델은 기존에 발표된 거리독립 해양환경에서의 결과와 비교하여 검증하였고, 이를 바탕으로 거리의존 해양환경에서 수동소나에 의한 표적탐지에 큰 영향을 주는 난수성 소용돌이 해양환경에 확장 적용하여 표적의 탐지거리를 예측하였으며, 그 결과에 대하여 소개한다.

• 대기
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• 제17권4호
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• pp.327-337
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• 2007

In this study, we examined the new ensemble training approach to reduce the systematic error and improve prediction skill of wind by using the Short-range Ensemble prediction system (SENSE), which is the mesoscale multi-model ensemble prediction system. The SENSE has 16 ensemble members based on the MM5, WRF ARW, and WRF NMM. We evaluated the skill of surface wind prediction compared with AWS (Automatic Weather Station) observation during the summer season (June - August, 2006). At first stage, the correction of initial state for each member was performed with respect to the observed values, and the corrected members get the training stage to find out an adaptive weight function, which is formulated by Root Mean Square Vector Error (RMSVE). It was found that the optimal training period was 1-day through the experiments of sensitivity to the training interval. We obtained the weighted ensemble average which reveals smaller errors of the spatial and temporal pattern of wind speed than those of the simple ensemble average.

• 대한기계학회논문집
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• 제18권5호
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• pp.1192-1202
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• 1994

Fatigue behavior and life prediction were presented for thermal-mechanical and isothermal low cycle fatigue of 12Cr forged steel used for high temperature applications. In-phase and out-of-phase thermal-mechanical fatigue test at 350 to 600.deg. C and isothermal low cycle fatigue test at 600.deg. C were conducted using smooth cylindrical hollow specimen under strain-control with total strain ranges from 0.006 to 0.015. Cyclic softening behavior was observed regardless of thermal-mechanical and isothermal fatigue tests. The phase difference between temperature and strain in thermal-mechanical fatigue resulted in significantly shorter fatigue life for out-of-phase than for in-phase. The difference in fatigue lives was dependent upon the magnitudes of inelastic strain ranges and mean stresses. Increase in inelastic strain range showed a tendency of intergranular cracking and decrease in fatigue life, especially for out-of-phase thermal-mechanical fatigue. Thermal-mechanical fatigue life prediction was made by partitioning the strain ranges of the hysteresis loops and the results of isothermal low cycle fatigue tests which were performed under the combination of slow and fast strain rates. Predicted fatigue lives for out-of-phase using the strain range partitioning method showed an excellent agreement with the actual out-of-phase thermal-mechanical fatigue lives within a factor of 1.5. Conventional strain range partitioning method exhibited a poor accuracy in the prediction of in-phase thermal-mechanical fatigue lives, which was quite improved conservatively by a proposed strain range partitioning method.

• Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.989-995
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• 2017

As is known to all that the output of wind power generation has a character of randomness and volatility because of the influence of natural environment conditions. At present, the research of wind power prediction mainly focuses on point forecasting, which can hardly describe its uncertainty, leading to the fact that its application in practice is low. In this paper, a wind power range prediction model based on the multiple output property of BP neural network is built, and the optimization criterion considering the information of predicted intervals is proposed. Then, improved Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm is used to optimize the model. The simulation results of a practical example show that the proposed wind power range prediction model can effectively forecast the output power interval, and provide power grid dispatcher with decision.

• 대기
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.73-104
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• 2023

Over the past 60 years, Korean numerical weather prediction (NWP) has advanced rapidly with the collaborative effort between the science community and the operational modelling center. With an improved scientific understanding and the growth of information technology infrastructure, Korea is able to provide reliable and seamless weather forecast service, which can predict beyond a 10 days period. The application of NWP has expanded to support decision making in weather-sensitive sectors of society, exploiting both storm-scale high-impact weather forecasts in a very short range, and sub-seasonal climate predictions in an extended range. This article gives an approximate chronological account of the NWP over three periods separated by breakpoints in 1990 and 2005, in terms of dynamical core, physics, data assimilation, operational system, and forecast application. Challenges for future development of NWP are briefly discussed.

• 시스템엔지니어링학술지
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• 제19권1호
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• pp.107-113
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• 2023

For one-shot systems such as 81mm high-explosive ammunition, research on performance prediction is insignificant due to research manpower infrastructure and lack of interest and difficulties in securing field data, which can only be done by special task workers. In order to evaluate the actual range of ammunition, the storage ammunition reliability evaluation checks the range by firing actual ammunition through a functional test. Test evaluation is a method of extracting a sample from the population, launching it, and recording the results accordingly. As a result of these tests, the range, which is an indicator of ammunition performance, can be measured differently according to meteorological factors such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, and humidity according to the location of the test site. In this study, various environmental factors generated at the test site and storage period analyze the correlation with the range, which is the performance of ammunition, and analyze the priority of importance for each factor and the numerical standards that environmental factors affect range. Through this, a new approach to one-shot system performance prediction was presented.

• 전기학회논문지
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• 제61권11호
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• pp.1682-1688
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• 2012

This paper introduces a GP(Genetic Programming) based robust technique for temperature compensation in short-range prediction. Development of an efficient MOS(Model Output Statistics) is necessary to correct systematic errors of the model, because forecast models do not reliably determine weather conditions. Most of MOS use a linear regression to compensate a prediction model, therefore it is hard to manage an irregular nature of prediction. In order to solve the problem, a nonlinear and symbolic regression method using GP is suggested. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the accuracy of the estimation by a GP based nonlinear MOS for 3 days temperatures in Korean regions. This method is then compared to the UM model and has shown superior results. The training period of 2007-2009 summer is used, and the data of 2010 summer is adopted for verification.