• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.14 no.1
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• pp.121-145
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• 1992

This paper examines characteristics of time series data related to the construction investment(stationarity and time series components such as secular trend, cyclical fluctuation, seasonal variation, and random change) and surveys predictibility, fitness, and explicability of independent variables of various models to build a short-term construction investment forecasting model suitable for current economic circumstances. Unit root test, autocorrelation coefficient and spectral density function analysis show that related time series data do not have unit roots, fluctuate cyclically, and are largely explicated by lagged variables. Moreover it is very important for the short-term construction investment forecasting to grasp time lag relation between construction investment series and leading indicators such as building construction permits and value of construction orders received. In chapter 3, we explicate 7 forecasting models; Univariate time series model (ARIMA and multiplicative linear trend model), multivariate time series model using leading indicators (1st order autoregressive model, vector autoregressive model and error correction model) and multivariate time series model using National Accounts data (simple reduced form model disconnected from simultaneous macroeconomic model and VAR model). These models are examined by 4 statistical tools that are average absolute error, root mean square error, adjusted coefficient of determination, and Durbin-Watson statistic. This analysis proves two facts. First, multivariate models are more suitable than univariate models in the point that forecasting error of multivariate models tend to decrease in contrast to the case of latter. Second, VAR model is superior than any other multivariate models; average absolute prediction error and root mean square error of VAR model are quitely low and adjusted coefficient of determination is higher. This conclusion is reasonable when we consider current construction investment has sustained overheating growth more than secular trend.

• Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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• v.49 no.4
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• pp.205-219
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• 2016

Objectives: No children-specified review and meta-analysis paper about the short-term effect of fine particulate matter ($PM_{2.5}$) on hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma has been published. We calculated more precise pooled effect estimates on this topic and evaluated the variation in effect size according to the differences in study characteristics not considered in previous studies. Methods: Two authors each independently searched PubMed and EMBASE for relevant studies in March, 2016. We conducted random effect meta-analyses and mixed-effect meta-regression analyses using retrieved summary effect estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) and some characteristics of selected studies. The Egger's test and funnel plot were used to check publication bias. All analyses were done using R version 3.1.3. Results: We ultimately retrieved 26 time-series and case-crossover design studies about the short-term effect of $PM_{2.5}$ on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. In the primary meta-analysis, children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma were positively associated with a short-term $10{\mu}g/m^3$ increase in $PM_{2.5}$ (relative risk, 1.048; 95% CI, 1.028 to 1.067; $I^2=95.7%$). We also found different effect coefficients by region; the value in Asia was estimated to be lower than in North America or Europe. Conclusions: We strengthened the evidence on the short-term effect of $PM_{2.5}$ on children's hospital admissions and emergency department visits for asthma. Further studies from other regions outside North America and Europe regions are needed for more generalizable evidence.

• Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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• v.28 no.3
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• pp.303-310
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• 2015

The study was conducted to analyze the genetic parameters of somatic cell score (SCS) of Holstein cows, which is an important indicator to udder health. Test-day records of somatic cell counts (SCC) of 305-day lactation design from first to fifth lactations were collected on Holsteins in Korea during 2000 to 2012. Records of animals within 18 to 42 months, 30 to 54 months, 42 to 66 months, 54 to 78 months, and 66 to 90 months of age at the first, second, third, fourth and fifth parities were analyzed, respectively. Somatic cell scores were calculated, and adjusted for lactation production stages by Wilmink's function. Lactation averages of SCS ($LSCS_1$ through $LSCS_5$) were derived by further adjustments of each test-day SCS for five age groups in particular lactations. Two datasets were prepared through restrictions on number of sires/herd and dams/herd, progenies/sire, and number of parities/cow to reduce data size and attain better relationships among animals. All LSCS traits were treated as individual trait and, analyzed through multiple-trait sire models and single trait animal models via VCE 6.0 software package. Herd-year was fitted as a random effect. Age at calving was regressed as a fixed covariate. The mean LSCS of five lactations were between 3.507 and 4.322 that corresponded to a SCC range between 71,000 and 125,000 cells/mL; with coefficient of variation from 28.2% to 29.9%. Heritability estimates from sire models were within the range of 0.10 to 0.16 for all LSCS. Heritability was the highest at lactation 2 from both datasets (0.14/0.16) and lowest at lactation 5 (0.11/0.10) using sire model. Heritabilities from single trait animal model analyses were slightly higher than sire models. Genetic correlations between LSCS traits were strong (0.62 to 0.99). Very strong associations (0.96 to 0.99) were present between successive records of later lactations. Phenotypic correlations were relatively weaker (<0.55). All correlations became weaker at distant lactations. The estimated breeding values (EBVs) of LSCS traits were somewhat similar over the years for a particular lactation, but increased with lactation number increment. The lowest EBV in first lactation indicated that selection for SCS (mastitis resistance) might be better with later lactation records. It is expected that results obtained from these multi-trait lactation model analyses, being the first large scale SCS data analysis in Korea, would create a good starting step for application of advanced statistical tools for future genomic studies focusing on selection for mastitis resistance in Holsteins of Korea.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.80 no.2
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• pp.246-254
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• 1991

Genetic structure of a Pinus densiflora population consisting of two subpopulations on the north-and south-facing slopes of a mountain was studied by allozyme analysis. Allozyme variants in aspartate aminotransferase(AAT), glutmate dehydrogenase(GDH) and leucine aminopeptidase(LAP) systems are encoded, at least, by eight loci ; five for AAT, one for GDH and two for LAP. Average number of alleles examined over six loci was 3.33. Average heterozygosity and genetic diversity computed over six loci were, respectively, 0.19 and 2.76 for parental population, 0.17 and 2.22 for progeny population. Differences in allelic frequencies between maternal sources at many of the investigated loci were found and between subpopulations on the north- and south-facing slopes. Allele frequencies of maternal origin at some of the loci were significantly different from each other between the two subpopulations. Thus it appears that the matings within and between subpopulations were not random and the mountain ridge that divides the north-and south-facing slopes isolate the two suhpopulations reproductively to a great extent. Some of the genotypes both in parental and progeny(embryo) groups deviate significantly from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium state. It appears from the result that the pine population is originated from a few limited ancestral trees and thus consanguineous matings are prevalent in this pine population.

• Horticultural Science & Technology
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• v.17 no.4
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• pp.489-493
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• 1999

This study was conducted to investigate the potentiality of various Korean Sedum species as ornamental plants based on morphological characteristics and to analyze the genetic relationship among the Sedum species. S. kamtschaticum and S. takesimense possessing splendour flowercluster with yellow color could be suggested for garden plant, S. routundifolium having pink flower-clusters with round leaf shape for pot flower or garden plant and S. sarmentosum, S. polystichoides and S. oryzifolium with creeping stem and low plant height for ground cover plant or floral carpet. Eighteen oligonucleotide random primers were used to amplify genomic DNA of Sedum species using polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Ninety five polymorphic bands among 125 different DNA fragments in the range of 224 to 3,675 base pairs were obtained from RAPD analysis. Similarity matrix of RAPD profiles was generated by coefficient value of variation, and the data were subjected to be cluster analysis. Fifteen lines of Sedum species analyzed were classified into 3 groups with the similarity coefficient value of 0.418, and 12 groups with the value of 0.328. RAPD results showed similar trends as the morphological characteristics of the plants.

• Korean Journal of Plant Resources
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• v.13 no.1
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• pp.1-10
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• 2000

Pecan is deciduous tree and belongs to the Julandaceae family. Pecan is an economically important as a nut and timber crop. Heterozygosity is expected to be high for typically cross-pollinated. Yet little is known about the nature of genetic variation within this species. In addition, the pedigree of many pecan cultivars remains unknown or is questionable. In this study, the phylogenetic relationships between 22 pecan cultivars and its analyzed by RAPD (randomly amplified polymorphic DNA). PCR Amplification used 40 randomly selected oligoes as primers. Based on their genetic similarities derived from the RAPD data, the 22 pecan cultivars were classified into different five groups in agarose gel. The 22 pecan cultivars were classified into five sectional groups by UPGMA clustering analysis, too. C. flacra and Black walnut showed the 0.9 of similarity index and Farley, Pawnee showed the 0.85 of similarity index. The 22 pecan cultivars were classified into different five groups by analysis of the 4% polyacrylamide gel fraction. (Group I : 1, 2, 3, 4, 13, 16, 17, 20, 21 Group II : 14,18 GroupIII : 6,12 GroupIV : 5, 11, 15, 19, 22 CroupV : 7, 8, 9, 10) Group V show the 1.0 of similarity index and Farley, Sturya, Clarke, Pawnee show the 0.98 of similarity index and Kiowa, Schley show the 0.92 of similarity index. Results from this study indicated that RAPD can be used to establish the genetic relationships among the 22 pecan cultivars. Similarity coefficients generally agreed with what would be predicted in cultivars with known pedigrees, and we could accurately construct relationships among cultivars. In addition, we have shown that RAPD provides useful information on the origin of unknown cultivars.

• Proceedings of the Korean Society of Near Infrared Spectroscopy Conference
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• 2001.06a
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• pp.1121-1121
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• 2001

A previous study (Berzaghi et al., 2001) evaluated the performance of 3 calibration methods, modified partial least squares (MPLS), local PLS (LOCAL) and artificial neural networks (ANN) on the prediction of the chemical composition of forages, using a large NIR database. The study used forage samples (n=25,977) from Australia, Europe (Belgium, Germany, Italy and Sweden) and North America (Canada and U.S.A) with reference values for moisture, crude protein and neutral detergent fibre content. The spectra of the samples were collected using 10 different Foss NIR Systems instruments, only some of which had been standardized to one master instrument. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the behaviour of these different calibration methods when predicting the same samples measured on different instruments. Twenty-two sealed samples of different kind of forages were measured in duplicate on seven instruments (one master and six slaves). Three sets of near infrared spectra (1100 to 2500nm) were created. The first set consisted of the spectra in their original form (unstandardized); the second set was created using a single sample standardization (Clone1); the third was created using a multiple sample procedure (Clone6). WinISI software (Infrasoft International Inc., Port Mathilda, PA, USA) was used to perform both types of standardization, Clone1 is just a photometric offset between a “master” instrument and the “slave” instrument. Clone6 modifies both the X-axis through a wavelength adjustment and the Y-axis through a simple regression wavelength by wavelength. The Clone1 procedure used one sample spectrally close to the centre of the population. The six samples used in Clone 6 were selected to cover the range of spectral variation in the sample set. The remaining fifteen samples were used to evaluate the performances of the different models. The predicted values for dry matter, protein and neutral detergent fibre from the master Instrument were considered as “reference Y values” when computing the statistics RMSEP, SEPC, R, Bias, Slope, mean GH (global Mahalanobis distance) and mean NH (neighbourhood Mahalanobis distance) for the 6 slave instruments. From the results we conclude that i) all the calibration techniques gave satisfactory results after standardization. Without standardization the predicted data from the slaves would have required slope and bias correction to produce acceptable statistics. ii) Standardization reduced the errors for all calibration methods and parameters tested, reducing not only systematic biases but also random errors. iii) Standardization removed slope effects that were significantly different from 1.0 in most of the cases. iv) Clone1 and Clone6 gave similar results except for NDF where Clone6 gave better RMSEP values than Clone1. v) GH and NH were reduced by half even with very large data sets including unstandardized spectra.

• The Korean Journal of Mycology
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• v.30 no.2
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• pp.78-85
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• 2002

Fifteen isolates from pear, and sixteen isolates from KCTC, KCCM, and Chungnam Univ. of Penicillium spp. were investigated for the analysis of their relationships of cultural characteristics and RAPD genetic variation by RAPD. The cultural characteristics of Penicillium spp. were shown different growth rate, morphology, and color. In addition, the cultural characteristics and RAPD analysis were conducted for the pear rot pathogens and related isolates. RAPD patterns were applied to compare the taxonomic and genetic diversity of the Penicillium species between 15 groups isolated from pear fruits and 16 standard species. The genomic DNA were amplified from $0.1{\sim}2.0kb$ by five URP primer and 744 bands were detected. The cluster analysis showed four genomic DNA RAPD groups and its similarity was 47.7%. Intraspecific relationships were 87.4, 97.5 and 95.2%, in P. expansum, P. solitum, and P. crustosum, respectively. These results appeared to be that there were high similarities between isolates, and consistent with the results of cultural morphological characteristics analysis.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.17 no.3
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• pp.622-628
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• 2016

As the suction pad-supporting bike carrier attached to a car may be subject to an excessive dynamic load due to random vibrations and centrifugal forces during driving, its structural safety is of great concern. To examine this, the finite-element method with a fluid-structure interaction should be used because the pressure on the pad bottom is changed in real time according to the fluctuations of the force or the moment applied on the pad. This method, however, has high computing costs in terms of modeling efforts and software expense. Moreover, the accuracy of computation is not easily guaranteed. Therefore, a new method combining the experiment and computation is proposed in this paper: the bottom pressure and contact area of the pad under varying loads was measured in real time and the acquired data are then used in the nonlinear elastic finite-element calculations. The computational and experimental results obtained with the product under development showed that the safety margin of the pad under the axial loading is relatively sufficient, whereas with an excessive rotational loading, the pad is vulnerable to separation or a local surface damage; hence, the safety margin may not be secured. The predicted contact behavior under the variation of the magnitude and type of the loading were in good agreement with the one from the experiment. The proposed analysis method in this study could be used in the design of similar vacuum pad systems.

• The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.645-653
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• 2014

P-value is the probability of observing a current sample and possibly other samples departing equally or more extremely from the null hypothesis toward postulated alternative hypothesis. When p-value is less than a certain level called ${\alpha}$(= 0:05), researchers claim that the alternative hypothesis is supported empirically. Unfortunately, some findings discovered in that way are not reproducible, partly because the p-value itself is a statistic vulnerable to random variation. Boos and Stefanski (2011) suggests calculating the upper limit of p-value in hypothesis testing, using a bootstrap predictive distribution. To determine the sample size of a replication study, this study proposes thought experiments by simulating boosted bootstrap samples of different sizes from given observations. The method is illustrated for the cases of two-group comparison and multiple linear regression. This study also addresses the reproducibility of the points in the given 95% confidence interval. Numerical examples show that the center point is covered by 95% confidence intervals generated from bootstrap resamples. However, end points are covered with a 50% chance. Hence this study draws the graph of the reproducibility rate for each parameter in the confidence interval.