• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.293-293
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• 2021

자연유량이란 인위적 행위에 의한 하천의 유량 변화가 없는 개발되지 않은 상태의 하천유량을 말하며, 실제 유량을 측정하거나 관측자료를 활용한 장기유출모형을 통해 산정할 수 있다. 미계측 유역에 대한 강우-유출 모형 구축시, 무엇보다 실제 미계측유역에 적용시 나타날 수 있는 문제점을 최소화할 수 있는 방향으로 모형 개발이 이루어지는 것이 필요하다. 강우-유출 모형 매개변수의 수가 많아질수록 과적합(over-fitting)의 발생 소지가 증가하게 되며, 지역화 모형 구축시 불확실성을 더욱 가중시키게 된다. 이러한 이유로, 모형의 검정보다는 검증에 초점이 맞춰져 있어야 하며, 더불어 사용되는 강우-유출 모형의 매개변수가 적어야 한다. 본 연구에서는 대표 강우-유출모형의 선정시 여러 평가 기준 중 예측의 정확성 측면에서 통계적 지표를 통해 모형의 수행능력에 중점을 두었으며, 적은 개수의 매개변수를 갖음에도 불구하고 상대적 우수한 모의결과를 제공하는 GR4J(Ge'nie Rural a 4 parame tres Journalier)모형을 최적 유출모형으로 선정하여 댐 상류유역에 대한 자연유량 재현성능을 평가하였다. 최종적으로 강우-유출모형의 최적매개변수와 유역특성인자 사이의 상호연관성을 고려해 매개변수를 지역화하기 위하여, 본 연구에서는 두 가지 이상의 변량에 대한 상관성을 효과적으로 재현하는데 효과적이며, 자유로운 주변확률분포 선택과 결합확률분포의 추정이 용이한 장점이 있는 Copula 함수를 활용하였다. 제시된 방법론에 대한 적합성을 평가하기 위해 교차검증 관점에서 지역화된 매개변수의 적합성을 검토하였으며, 본 연구에서 도출된 결과는 유역특성에 따른 미계측유역의 자연유량 산정시 지역 매개변수를 강우-유출모형에 활용함으로써 신뢰성 있는 자연유량 산정 결과를 제공할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.8 no.5
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• pp.59-64
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• 2008

The urban is possessing of various landuses such as commercial, industrial, residential and official areas. All of these landuses is including the paved areas that are roads and parking lots. The NPS (nonpoint sources) pollutants are generally originated from pavement areas in urban by human activities. Especially the roads are stormwater intensive landuses because of high vehicle activities and high imperviousness. The main NPS pollutants from roads are particulates and metals from vehicles and pavements. The Korea MOE (Ministry of Environment) is developing the NPS control program to reduce the NPS pollutants from the basins. However, it is not easy to control the NPS because it has high uncertainty by characteristics of rainfalls and watersheds. Therefore, this research was conducted on characterizing the runoff and providing mean EMC from roads. The monitoring were performed for total 16 rainfall events from a road in Youngin City since 2006. The results show that the TSS is highly correlated with other pollutant parameters. The statistical regression models using TSS EMC have been developed to easily determine the EMC of other pollutant parameters.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.38 no.10 s.159
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• pp.801-810
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• 2005

The lag time is one of the most important factors for estimating a flood runoff from streams. It is well known to be under the influence of the morphometric properties of basins which could be expressed by catchment shape descriptors. In this paper, the notion of the geometric characteristics of an equivalent ellipse proposed by Moussa(2003) is applied for calculating the lag time of geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH) at the basin outlet. The lag time is obtained from the observed data of rainfall and runoff by using the method of moments suggested by Nash(1957), and the procedure based on geomorphology is used for GIUH. The relationships between the basin morphometric properties and the hydrological response are discussed as applied to 3 catchments In Korea. Additionally, the shapes of equivalent ellipse are examined how then are transformed from upstream area to downstream one. As a result, the relationship between the hydrological response and descriptors is shown to be comparatively good, and the shape of ellipse is presented to approach a circle along the river downwards. These results may be expanded to the estimation of hydrological response of ungauged catchment.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.43 no.8
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• pp.721-731
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• 2010

The rainfall-runoff relationship is very difficult to predict because it is complicate factor affected by many temporal and spatial parameters of the basin. In recent, models which is based on artificial intelligent such as neural network, genetic algorithm fuzzy etc., are frequently used to predict discharge while stochastic or deterministic or empirical models are used in the past. However, the discharge data which are generally used for prediction as training and validation set are often estimated from rating curve which has potential error in its estimation that makes a problem in reliability. Therefore, in this study, water stage is predicted from antecedent rainfall and water stage data for short term using three models of neural network which trained by error back propagation algorithm and optimized by genetic algorithm and training error back propagation after it is optimized by genetic algorithm respectively. As the result, the model optimized by Genetic Algorithm gives the best forecasting ability which is not much decreased as the forecasting time increase. Moreover, the models using stage data only as the input data give better results than the models using precipitation data with stage data.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Hazard Mitigation
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• v.9 no.4
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• pp.71-80
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• 2009

Although desire for living without hazardous damages grows these days, threats from natural disasters which we are currently exposed to are quiet different from what we have experienced. To cope with this changing situation, it is necessary to assess the characteristics of the natural disasters. Therefore, the main purpose of this research is to suggest a methodology to estimate the potential property loss and assess the flood risk using a regional regression analysis. Since the flood damage mainly consists of loss of lives and property damages, it is reasonable to express the results of a flood risk assessment with the loss of lives and the property damages that are vulnerable to flood. The regional regression analysis has been commonly used to find relationships between regional characteristics of a watershed and parameters of rainfall-runoff models or probability distribution models. In our research, however, this model is applied to estimate the potential flood damage as follows; 1) a nonlinear model between the flood damage and the hourly rainfall is found in gauged regions which have sufficient damage and rainfall data, and 2) a regression model is developed from the relationship between the coefficients of the nonlinear models and socio-economic indicators in the gauged regions. This method enables us to quantitatively analyze the impact of the regional indicators on the flood damage and to estimate the damage through the application of the regional regression model to ungauged regions which do not have sufficient data. Moreover the flood risk map is developed by Flood Vulnerability Index (FVI) which is equal to the ratio of the estimated flood damage to the total regional property. Comparing the results of this research with Potential Flood Damage (PFD) reported in the Long-term Korea National Water Resources Plan, the exports' mistaken opinions could affect the weighting procedure of PFD, but the proposed approach based on the regional regression would overcome the drawback of PFD. It was found that FVI is highly correlated with the past damage, while PFD does not reflect the regional vulnerabilities.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.37 no.12
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• pp.1019-1032
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• 2004

Flood frequency estimate is an essential index for determining the scale of small and middle hydraulic structure. However, this flood quantity could not be estimated directly for practical design purpose due to the lack of available flood data, and indirect method like design rainfall-runoff method have been used for the estimation of design flood. To give the good explain for design flood estimates, regional flood frequency analysis was performed by flood index method in this study. First, annual maximum series were constructed by using the collected data which covers from Japanese imperialism period to 1999. Wakeby distribution recommended by WMO(1989) was used for regional flood frequency analysis and L-moment method by Hosking (1990) was used for parameter estimation. For the homogeneity of region, the discordance and heterogeneity test by Hosking and Wallis(1993) was carried for 4 major watersheds in Korea. Physical independent variable correlated with index flood was watershed area. The relationship between specific discharge and watershed area showed a type of power function, i.e. the specific discharge decreases as watershed area increases. So flood quantity according to watershed area and return period was presented for each watershed(Han rivet, Nakdong river, Geum river and Youngsan/Seomjin river) by using this relation type. This result was also compared with the result of point frequency analysis and its regionalization. It was shown that the dam construction couldn't largely affect the variation of peak flood. The property of this study was also examined by comparison with previous studies.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.47 no.10
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• pp.853-865
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• 2014

Hydrologic dam risk analysis depends on complex hydrologic analyses in that probabilistic relationship need to be established to quantify various uncertainties associated modeling process and inputs. However, the systematic approaches to uncertainty analysis for hydrologic risk analysis have not been addressed yet. In this paper, two major innovations are introduced to address this situation. The first is the use of a Hierarchical Bayesian model based regional frequency analysis to better convey uncertainties associated with the parameters of probability density function to the dam risk analysis. The second is the use of Bayesian model coupled HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model to estimate posterior distributions of the model parameters. A reservoir routing analysis with the existing operation rule was performed to convert the inflow scenarios into water surface level scenarios. Performance functions for dam risk model was finally employed to estimate hydrologic dam risk analysis. An application to the Dam in South Korea illustrates how the proposed approach can lead to potentially reliable estimates of dam safety, and an assessment of their sensitivity to the initial water surface level.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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• v.17 no.1
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• pp.26-33
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• 1998

This experiment was conducted to classify the plant species occurring in the saline reclaimed land by saline tolerance. The vegetation of reclaimed land was composed of various plant species from halophyte to glycophyte showing different saline tolerances. In the investigated saline region, reclaimed land of Youngjong island, Inchun city, 175 species belonging to 32 families were found. Our survey was carried out in two region, having different salinity due to different desalinization. The electricalconductivity (EC) of more saline region showed 48.0mS/cm nd the other region showed 13.0mS/cm. It is assumed that intensity of precipitation and runoff of rainfall may cause salinity gradient in the investigated region. The plant species occurred in the experimental region were classified as 72 species of annual, 42 species of biennial, and 61 species of perennial according to life cycle. For knowing relationship between vegetation of saline region and saline tolerance of occurring species, we tested the saline susceptibility of plant species collected at the saline regions. Testing plants were cultured by nutrient solution containing 200 mM NaCl, the critical concentration of survival in glycophytes. The saline tolerance was graded by the growing capacity in the sand-culture system. The more saline-tolerant species screened by sand culture were Atriplex gmelini, Suaeda asparagoides, Aster tripolium, Suaeda maritima, Salicornia herbacea, and Suaeda japonica. The most saline tolerant family was Chenopodiaceae. Poaceae, Cyperaceae, and Brassicaceae showed relatively high tolerance to saline stress. In the course of growth under the high saline condition, the most noticeable change was the darkening of leaves by increasing of chlorophyll content. The chlorophyll contents were increased with saline stress in most species.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.41 no.5
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• pp.463-471
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to analyze the features of groundwater use to utilize as basic information for water-cycle analysis system development and effective groundwater management in the Kap-cheon basin. The cumulative relationship between groundwater use and the number of wells was analyzed to estimate the representative total groundwater use and the number of wells for the Kap-cheon basin. Then, the spatial distribution of groundwater use in the basin were figured out using the detailed information on groundwater use in each well. Finally, the reasonability of groundwater resources management in Kap-cheon basin was evaluated by comparing groundwater recharge and groundwater use in sub-basins and major stream basins. The results of the analysis showed about 25% of the total wells could represent 90% of groundwater use ($37,923,516\;m^3$/year) in the Kap-cheon basin. A detailed analysis on the groundwater uses in the vicinity of down-town areas of Daejeon metropolitan city showed high groundwater uses ($1.4{\sim}11.1$ times) compared to the groundwater recharge previously estimated using the rainfall-runoff model. The ratio of groundwater use and groundwater recharge for the major river basins in Kap-cheon basin ranged from 1.9 to 2.3 indicating that more sustainable groundwater management should be exercised. The results of this study can be used as basic information in evaluating the change of groundwater flow, stream flow and water-cycle for various groundwater uses in the Kap-cheon basin.