• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall model

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A Reliability Analysis of Shallow Foundations using a Single-Mode Performance Function (단일형 거동함수에 의한 얕은 기초의 신뢰도 해석 -임해퇴적층의 토성자료를 중심으로-)

  • 김용필;임병조
    • Geotechnical Engineering
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.27-44
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    • 1986
  • The measured soil data are analyzed to the descriptive statistics and classified into the four models of uncorrelated-normal (UNNO), uncorrelated-nonnormal (VNNN), correlatedonnormal(CONN), and correlated-nonnormal(CONN) . This paper presents the comparisons of reliability index and check points using the advanced first-order second-moment method with respect to the four models as well as BASIC Program. A sin91e-mode Performance function is consisted of the basic design variables of bearing capacity and settlements on shallow foundations and input the above analyzed soil informations. The main conclusions obtained in this study are summarized as follows: 1. In the bearing capacity mode, cohesion and bearing-capacity factors by C-U test are accepted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively, and negatively low correlated to each other. Since the reliability index of the CONN model is the lowest one of the four model, which could be recommended a reliability.based design, whereas the other model might overestimate the geotechnical conditions. 2. In the case of settlements mode, the virgin compression ratio and preccnsolidation pressure are fitted for normal and lognormal distribution, respectively. Constraining settlements to the lower ones computed by deterministic method, The CONN model is the lowest reliability of the four models.

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Estimation of the Lodging Area in Rice Using Deep Learning (딥러닝을 이용한 벼 도복 면적 추정)

  • Ban, Ho-Young;Baek, Jae-Kyeong;Sang, Wan-Gyu;Kim, Jun-Hwan;Seo, Myung-Chul
    • KOREAN JOURNAL OF CROP SCIENCE
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    • v.66 no.2
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    • pp.105-111
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    • 2021
  • Rice lodging is an annual occurrence caused by typhoons accompanied by strong winds and strong rainfall, resulting in damage relating to pre-harvest sprouting during the ripening period. Thus, rapid estimations of the area of lodged rice are necessary to enable timely responses to damage. To this end, we obtained images related to rice lodging using a drone in Gimje, Buan, and Gunsan, which were converted to 128 × 128 pixels images. A convolutional neural network (CNN) model, a deep learning model based on these images, was used to predict rice lodging, which was classified into two types (lodging and non-lodging), and the images were divided in a 8:2 ratio into a training set and a validation set. The CNN model was layered and trained using three optimizers (Adam, Rmsprop, and SGD). The area of rice lodging was evaluated for the three fields using the obtained data, with the exception of the training set and validation set. The images were combined to give composites images of the entire fields using Metashape, and these images were divided into 128 × 128 pixels. Lodging in the divided images was predicted using the trained CNN model, and the extent of lodging was calculated by multiplying the ratio of the total number of field images by the number of lodging images by the area of the entire field. The results for the training and validation sets showed that accuracy increased with a progression in learning and eventually reached a level greater than 0.919. The results obtained for each of the three fields showed high accuracy with respect to all optimizers, among which, Adam showed the highest accuracy (normalized root mean square error: 2.73%). On the basis of the findings of this study, it is anticipated that the area of lodged rice can be rapidly predicted using deep learning.

A Study on the Dynamic Purchase Response Function for Fashion Goods (패션제품의 동태적 구매반응함수에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Min Ho;Kwak, Young Sik;Hwang, Sun-Jin
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Costume
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.35-49
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    • 2014
  • In cases of fashion businesses operating by consignment, base estimate on quantity of sales is the most essential part of merchandising. This study classified factors influential to sales into factors with systematic influence and factors with unsystematic influence. In order to find out influence of each factor on sales, non-linear regression was used with SPSS package on the basis of actual data on sales for 5 years for sport shoes brand. Major findings of this study are as follows. First, price level had significant negative(-) influence on sales. Second, price expectation effects had significant negative(-) influence on sales. Third, competitor's price effect showed significant negative(-) value. Fourth, day-of-the-week effect showed significant positive(+) effect. The theoretical marketing implications of this study are as follows. First, study on price leads to expansion of the researches from apparels to sport shoes. Field of study on price was enlarged through expansion of variable of study from price level and price expectation effect to promotion, day-of-the-week effect and rainfall effect. Second, quantitative scale of day-of-the-week effect was found and it could be confirmed that there was seasonal differences with day-of-the-week effect. Implications of above findings on marketing managers are as follows. First, it was found that an increase in competitiveness of brand power and a decline in absolute value of competitor's price effect can be realized when new product groups are developed to meet the unsatisfied needs in the market. Second, it was possible to find out the parameters scales of the price response function, making it possible to estimate sales for the next season, and in turn realize increase in rate of sales and profit rate. This research is based on the dynamic price response function, which is rare to find in the apparel business and it academic significance due to its expanding response model which was focused on price in conventional researches to non-systematic variables.

Flood Damage Reduction Plan Using HEC-FDA Model (HEC-FDA 모형을 이용한 홍수피해 저감계획)

  • Lee, Jongso;Kim, Duckhwan;Kim, Jungwook;Han, Daegun;Kim, Hung Soo
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.237-244
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    • 2015
  • This study is estimated the flood damage probability of the flood discharge, the flood stage estimation and Economic Analysis for Flood Control about considering of uncertainty. Sum River Basin has chosen and the probability precipitation is estimated by using the concept of critical rainfall duration depending on the frequency of each flood stage estimation point. For calculating the expected annual damage, the functions of long term hazard, discharge-frequency, stage-discharge and depth-damage are established for 8 areas in Sum River Basin. The expected annual damaged is obtained which is based on the sampling informations through more than 500,000 simulation from the functions of considered uncertainty. The result about the optimum frequency and Investment Priorities are estimated by conducting the evaluation about planning the levee of various of Design Frequency. In analysis result, 12% of B/C value has increased if the uncertainty has concerned. Also the optimum frequency or Investment Priorities are possible to be changed. If the political and social analysis perform together it would be helpful to have a reasonable decision other than only the economical analysis as actual Flood damaged reduction planning.

The evaluation of Soil Erosion Risk of Urban Area based on Geospatial Information (공간정보를 활용한 도심지 토사유실 위험도 평가)

  • Lee, Geun-Sang
    • Journal of Cadastre & Land InformatiX
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    • v.45 no.2
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    • pp.57-70
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    • 2015
  • Recently, soil erosion have been thickening from heavy rainfall according to climate change. These soil erosion is main reason to cause landslide, the water quality, agricultural counterproductivity and so on. Therefore, it is important to find out the main source area to cause soil erosion using geospatial data including DEM, soil map and land cover those are very sensitive to soil erosion modeling. This study evaluated soil erosion using RUSLE model. Hyoja 4-Dong and Pyonghwa 2-Dong among Wansan-Gu showed high as 10,869 ton/yr and 10,477 ton/yr respectively and Ua 2-Dong of Deokjin-Gu showed high as 17,603 ton/yr in soil erosion. And Hyoja 1-Dong and Pyonghwa 1-Dong among Wansan-Gu showed high as $1,485.7ton/km^2$ and $1,297.0ton/km^2$ respectively and Inhu 3-Dong of Deokjin-Gu showed high as $2,557.7ton/km^2$ in unit soil erosion that was applied to the evaluation of soil erosion potential. It is anticipated that achievement of this study can apply to forecast and prepare the risk of soil erosion and debris flow in urban area.

Characteristics of Meteorological Variables in the Leeward Side associated with the Downslope Windstorm over the Yeongdong Region (영동지역 지형성 강풍과 관련된 풍하측 기상요소의 특징)

  • Cho, Young-Jun;Kwon, Tae-Yong;Choi, Byoung-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korean earth science society
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    • v.36 no.4
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    • pp.315-329
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    • 2015
  • We investigated the characteristics of meteorological conditions related to the strong downslope wind over the leeward side of the Taebaek Mountains during the period 2005~2010. The days showing the strong wind exceeding $14ms^{-1}$ in Gangwon province were selected as study cases. A total of 15 days of strong wind were observed at Sokcho, Gangneung, Donghae, and Taebaek located over the Yeongdong region. Seven cases related to tropical cyclone (3 cases) and heavy snowfall (2 cases) and heavy rainfall (2 cases) over the Yeongdong region were excluded. To investigate the characteristics of the remaining 8 cases, we used synoptic weather chart, Sokcho radiosonde, Gangneung wind profiler and numerical model. The cases showed no precipitation (or ${\leq}1mm\;day^{-1}$). From the surface and upper level weather chart, we found the pressure distribution of southern high and northern low pattern over the Korean peninsula and warm ridge over the Yeongdong region. Inversion layer (or stable layer) and warm ridge with strong wind were located in about 1~3 km (925~700 hPa) over mountains. The Regional Data Assimilation and Prediction System (RDAPS) indicated that warm core and temperature ridge with horizontal temperature gradient were $0.10{\sim}0.23^{\circ}C\;km^{-1}$ which were located on 850 hPa pressure level above mountaintop. These results were summarized as a forecasting guidance of downslope windstorm in the Yeongdong region.

Development of Landslide-Risk Prediction Model thorough Database Construction (데이터베이스 구축을 통한 산사태 위험도 예측식 개발)

  • Lee, Seung-Woo;Kim, Gi-Hong;Yune, Chan-Young;Ryu, Han-Joong;Hong, Seong-Jae
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.28 no.4
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    • pp.23-33
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    • 2012
  • Recently, landslide disasters caused by severe rain storms and typhoons have been frequently reported. Due to the geomorphologic characteristics of Korea, considerable portion of urban area and infrastructures such as road and railway have been constructed near mountains. These infrastructures may encounter the risk of landslide and debris flow. It is important to evaluate the highly risky locations of landslide and to prepare measures for the protection of landslide in the process of construction planning. In this study, a landslide-risk prediction equation is proposed based on the statistical analysis of 423 landslide data set obtained from field surveys, disaster reports on national road, and digital maps of landslide area. Each dataset includes geomorphologic characteristics, soil properties, rainfall information, forest properties and hazard history. The comparison between the result of proposed equation and actual occurrence of landslide shows 92 percent in the accuracy of classification. Since the input for the equation can be provided within short period and low cost, and the results of equation can be easily incorporated with hazard map, the proposed equation can be effectively utilized in the analysis of landslide-risk for large mountainous area.

Outbreak of Rice Panicle Blast in Southern Provinces of Korea in 2014 (우리나라 남부지방에서의 2014년 벼 이삭도열병 대발생)

  • Kang, Wee Soo;Seo, Myung-Chul;Hong, Seong Jun;Lee, Kyong Jae;Lee, Yong Hwan
    • Research in Plant Disease
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.196-204
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    • 2019
  • Rice panicle blast occurred severely in southern provinces of Korea in 2014. The proportion of panicle blast incidence area to cultivated area of rice were 11.0% and 14.6% in Jeollanam-do and Gyeongsangnam-do, respectively. To identify the causal factors of the outbreak, we investigated weather conditions in August, amount of cultivated area of mainly grown cultivars, and nitrogen contents in plants with different disease incidences in 2014. 'Saenuri,' 'Ilmibyeo,' 'Unkwang,' 'Dongjin 1 ho,' 'Nampyeongbyeo,' and 'Hwangkeumnuri' were mainly grown cultivars. Monthly average of daily air temperature in August 2014 was 3.2℃ and 3.1℃ less than 2018 in Haenam and Miryang, respectively. Rainfall in August 2014 was 70.0% and 42.0% greater than 2018 in Haenam and Miryang, respectively. The numbers of blast warning days in August calculated nationwide using a forecast model for blast infection were higher in 2014 than in 2018, and they were in high level throughout the country in 2014. Nitrogen contents in plant samples from high-incidence plots were significantly higher than those from low-incidence plots. Consequently, excessive use of nitrogen fertilizers was the main factor for the disease outbreak at the level of specific farms, in addition to the collective cultivation of susceptible cultivar, low temperatures and frequent rainfalls in August.

The derivation of GIUH by means of the lag time of Nash model (Nash 모형의 지체시간을 이용한 GIUH 유도)

  • Kim, Joo-Cheol;Yoon, Yeo-Jin;Kim, Jae-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.10 s.159
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    • pp.801-810
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    • 2005
  • The lag time is one of the most important factors for estimating a flood runoff from streams. It is well known to be under the influence of the morphometric properties of basins which could be expressed by catchment shape descriptors. In this paper, the notion of the geometric characteristics of an equivalent ellipse proposed by Moussa(2003) is applied for calculating the lag time of geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph(GIUH) at the basin outlet. The lag time is obtained from the observed data of rainfall and runoff by using the method of moments suggested by Nash(1957), and the procedure based on geomorphology is used for GIUH. The relationships between the basin morphometric properties and the hydrological response are discussed as applied to 3 catchments In Korea. Additionally, the shapes of equivalent ellipse are examined how then are transformed from upstream area to downstream one. As a result, the relationship between the hydrological response and descriptors is shown to be comparatively good, and the shape of ellipse is presented to approach a circle along the river downwards. These results may be expanded to the estimation of hydrological response of ungauged catchment.

Fracture Flow of Radionuclides in Unsaturated Conditions at LILW Disposal Facility (불포화 암반 파쇄대를 통한 핵종 이동)

  • Kim, Won-Seok;Kim, Jungjin;Ahn, Jinmo;Nam, Seongsik;Um, Wooyong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.37 no.8
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    • pp.465-471
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    • 2015
  • Adsorption experiments for radionuclides such as $^3H$, $^{90}Sr$ and $^{99}Tc$ were conducted using fractured rock collected in unsaturated zone. The released radionuclide through artificial barrier from the near surface repository can be transported by the flow of rainfall or pore water through fractures in unsaturated zone and reach to groundwater flow. Therefore, it is important to investigate transport behavior (retardation) of radionuclides through fractured rock for the safety assessment and long-term performance of repository. Fractured rock samples were collected and characterized by X-ray microtomography (XMT) analysis, which can be used to develop a more robust unsaturated fracture transport model. When fracture-filling materials are exist, distribution coefficient of $^{90}Sr$ is higher than without fracture-filling materials. In this study, batch sorption distribution coefficient ($K_d$) of radionuclide was determined and used to increase our understanding of radionuclide retardtion through fracture-filling materials.