• Journal of the Korean Institute of Intelligent Systems
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.533-538
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• 2013

The damage caused by Recent frequently occurring locality torrential rains is increasing rapidly. In case of densely populated metropolitan area, casualties and property damage is a serious due to landslides and debris flows and floods. Therefore, the importance of predictions about the torrential is increasing. Precipitation characteristic of the bad weather in Korea is divided into typhoons and torrential rains. This seems to vary depending on the duration and area. Rainfall is difficult to predict because regional precipitation is large volatility and nonlinear. In this paper, Very short-term precipitation forecasting pattern model is implemented using KLAPS data used by Korea Meteorological Administration. we designed very short term precipitation forecasting pattern model using GA-based RBFNNs. the structural and parametric values such as the number of Inputs, polynomial type,number of fcm cluster, and fuzzification coefficient are optimized by GA optimization algorithm.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2007.05a
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• pp.291-295
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• 2007

강수진단모형을 이용하여 저수지 이수운영을 위한 실시간 유량예측기법을 개발하였다. 강수진단모형은 현재 기상청 현업에서 수행중인 강우수치예보를 기반으로 상세 지역의 지형 효과에 의한 강수를 예측하는 정량강수예측모형(QPM; Quantitative Precipitation Model)으로서 부경대학교 환경대기과학과에서 개발된 모형이다. QPM은 중규모 예측 모형으로부터 계산된 수평 바람, 고도, 기온, 강우 강도, 그리고 상대습도 등의 예측 자료를 이용하고, 소규모 상세지형 효과를 고려함으로써 중규모 예측 모형에서 생산된 강수량 예측 값을 상세 지역의 지형을 고려한 강수량 예측 값으로 재구성하여 결과적으로 3km 간격의 상세지역 강우산출과 지형에 따른 강수량의 분포 파악이 용이할 뿐만 아니라 계산 효율성을 개선된 모형이다. QPM 검증을 위하여 기상학적 평가와 수문학적 평가를 수행하였다. 호우 사례별 일강수량의 시공간 분포로 부터, QPM을 활용한 시스템에 의한 예측결과가 원시자료 RDAPS 보다 고해상도의 예측 및 지형효과의 반영도가 높았으며, AWS의 관측자료와 비교하여 보다 높은 예측성을 보여 주었다. 대상기간인 2006년 1월 1일부터 6월 20일까지 관측강우는 총 391.5mm 였으며 RQPM은 실적강우에 비하여 119.5mm 정도 과소산정하고 있으나 분위사상과정을 거치게 되면 351.7mm로서 실적강우에 불과 10.2% 못미치고 있다. 이는 고무적인 결과로 볼 수 있으며 현업에서의 활용성이 기대되는 수준이라 볼 수 있다. 강우-유출모의를 위한 QPM신뢰도를 높이기 위하여 분위사상법(Quantile Mapping)을 이용하여 QPM모의에 존재할 수 있는 계통오차에 대한 추가적인 보정을 수행하였다. 수문학적 평가를 위하여는 장기연속유출모형인 SSARR모형을 기반으로 개발된 RRFS(Rainfall-Runoff Forecast System)을 이용하여 2006년 1월${\sim}$9월까지의 용담댐 유입량에 대하여 모의예측결과와 관측유입량 비교를 통한 검증을 수행하였다. 위 기간중 예측유입량의 RMSE(Root Mean Squared Error), COE(Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency), MAE(Mean Absolute Error), $R^2$값은 각각 7.50, 0.68, 2.59, 0.69 값을 보이고 있다. 본 연구에서는 QPM에 의한 예측성의 향상 및 구축된 시스템에 의한 일강수량의 장기예측 가능성을 확인하였고, 향후 시스템을 현업에 활용하기 위해서 생산된 예측자료의 보다 장기적인 검증을 통한 시스템의 안정화가 필요할 것으로 사료된다.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.44 no.3
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• pp.169-177
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• 2011

The impacts of climate change on paddy irrigation water demands in Korea have been analyzed. High-resolution ($27{\times}27\;km$) climate data for the SRES A2 scenario produced by the Korean Meteorological Research Institute (METRI) and the observed baseline climatology dataset were used. The outputs from the ECHO-G GCM model were dynamically downscaled using the MM5 regional model by the METRI. The Geographic information system (GIS) was used to produce maps showing the spatial changes in irrigation water requirements for rice paddies. The results showed that the growing season mean temperature for future scenarios was projected to increase by $1.5^{\circ}C$ (2020s), $3.3^{\circ}C$ (2050s) and $5.3^{\circ}C$ (2080s) as compared with the baseline value (1971~2000). The growing season rainfall for future scenarios was projected to increase by 0.1% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 19.3% (2080s). Assuming cropping area and farming practices remain unchanged, the total volumetric irrigation demand was projected to increase by 2.8% (2020s), 4.9% (2050s) and 4.5% (2080s). These projections are contrary to the previous study that used HadCM3 outputs and projected decreasing irrigation demand. The main reason for this discrepancy is the difference with the projected climate of the GCMs used. The temporal and spatial variations were large and should be considered in the irrigation water resource planning and management in the future.

• Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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• v.27 no.3
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• pp.251-266
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• 2018

This study predicted the effect of operation pattern of flood control dam on water quality. Flood control dam temporarily impound floodwaters and then release them under control to the river below the dam preventing the river ecosystem from the extreme flood. The Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran (HSPF) and the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) were adapted to predict the water quality before and after the dam construction in the proposed reservoir. The non-point pollutant delivery load from the river basin was estimated using the HSPF, and the EFDC was used to predict the water quality using the provided watershed boundary conditions from the HSPF. As a result of water quality simulation, it is predicted that the water quality will be improved due to the decrease of pollution source due to submergence after dam construction and temporary storage during rainfall. There would be no major water quality issues such as the eutrophication in the reservoir since the dam would impound the floodwater for a short time (2~3 days). In the environmental impact assessment stage of a planned dam, there may be some limitations to the exact simulation because the model can not be sufficiently calibrated. However, if the reliability of the model is improved through the acquisition of actual data in the future, it will be possible to examine the influence of the water environment according to various operating conditions in the environmental impact assessment of the new flood control dam.

• Atmosphere
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.257-275
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• 2016

Asian dust is a seasonal meteorological phenomenon influencing most East Asia, irregularly occurring during spring. Unusual heavy Asian dust event in winter was observed in Seoul, Korea, with up to $1,044{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$ of hourly mean $PM_{10}$, in 22~23 February 2015. Causes of such infrequent event has been studied using both ground based and spaceborne observations, as well as numerical simulations including ECMWF ERA Interim reanalysis, NOAA HYSPLIT backward trajectory analysis, and ADAM2-Haze simulation. Analysis showed that southern Mongolia and northern China, one of the areas for dust origins, had been warm and dry condition, i.e. no snow depth, soil temperature of ${\sim}0^{\circ}C$, and cumulative rainfall of 1 mm in February, along with strong surface winds higher than critical wind speed of $6{\sim}7.5m\;s^{-1}$ during 20~21 February. While Jurihe, China, ($42^{\circ}23^{\prime}56^{{\prime}{\prime}}N$, $112^{\circ}53^{\prime}58^{{\prime}{\prime}}E$) experienced $9,308{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$ of hourly mean surface $PM_{10}$ during the period, the Asian dust had affected the Korean Peninsula within 24 hours traveling through strong north-westerly wind at ~2 km altitude. KMA issued Asian dust alert from 1100 KST on 22nd to 2200 KST on 23rd since above $400{\mu}g\;m^{-3}$ of hourly mean surface $PM_{10}$. It is also important to note that, previously to arrival of the Asian dust, the Korean Peninsula was affected by anthropogenic air pollutants ($NO_3^-$, $SO_4^{2-}$, and $NH_4^+$) originated from the megacities and large industrial areas in northeast China. In addition, this study suggests using various data sets from modeling and observations as well as improving predictability of the ADAM2-Haze model itself, in order to more accurately predict the occurrence and impacts of the Asian dust over the Korean peninsula.

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.473-479
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• 2008

Environment problem has been arising in many countries. Especially, soil erosion has been deemed as one of the biggest issues because sediment causes muddy water and pollutants, such as agricultural chemicals, flow in the stream with this sediment. Many studies, regarding soil loss and non-point source pollution from watershed, has been performed while serious problem has been known. Soil loss occurred in most agricultural area by rainfall and runoff. It makes hydraulic structure unstable, causes environmental economical problems because muddy water destroys ecosystem and causes intake water deterioration. As revealing serious effects of muddy water by sediment, many researches have been doing with various methods. Hydraulic structures establishments such as soil erosion control dams and grit chamber are common. Vegetative filter strip is investigated in this study because vegetative filter strip is designed for reducing sediment from upland areas of the watershed, and it has many functions, not only sediment reduction but also runoff water quality improvement and wildlife habitat. With these positive functions of the vegetative filter strip, the study about vegetative filter strip has been increasing for reducing sediment because it is more effective than hydraulic structures from an environmental perspective. But the sediment trapping efficiency by vegetative filter strip, needs to be investigated and designed first. Therefore the model, VFSMOD-W, was used in this study as it can estimate sediment trapping efficiency of vegetative filter strip under various field, vegetation, weather condition. Sensitive factors to sediment trapping efficiency are studied with VFSMOD-W, and sediment trapping efficiency equation has been derived using two most sensitive factors. It is thought that the equation suggested in this study can be used in Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), to overcome the limit of SWAT filter strip module, which is based solely on filter strip width.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.59 no.1
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• pp.45-55
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• 2017

Climate change causes changes in rainfall patterns, temperature and drought frequency. Climate change impact influences on water management and crop production. It is critical issue in agricultural industry. Rice is a staple cereal crop in South Korea and Korea uses a ponding system for its paddy fields which requires a significant amount of water. In addition, water supply has inter-relationship with crop production which indicates water productivity. Therefore, it is important to assess overall impacts of climate change on water resource and crop production. A water footprint concept is an indicator which shows relationship between water use and crop yield. In addition, it generally composed of three components depending on water resources: green, blue, grey water. This study analyzed the change trend of water footprint of paddy rice under the climate change. The downscaled climate data from HadGEM3-RA based on RCP 8.5 scenario was applied as future periods (2020s, 2050s, 2080s), and historical climate data was set to base line (1990s). Depending on agro-climatic zones, Suwon and Jeonju were selected for study area. A yield of paddy rice was simulated by using FAO-AquaCrop 5.0, which is a water-driven crop model. Model was calibrated by adjusting parameters and was validated by Mann-Whitney U test statistically. The means of water footprint were projected increase by 55 % (2020s), 51 % (2050s) and 48 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of $767m^2/ton$ in Suwon. In case of Jeonju, total water footprint was projected to increase by 46 % (2020s), 45 % (2050s), 12 % (2080s), respectively, from the baseline value of $765m^2/ton$. The results are expected to be useful for paddy water management and operation of water supply system and apply in establishing long-term policies for agricultural water resources.

• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.85 no.2
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• pp.210-224
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• 1996

The SLODSVAT consists of interrelated submodels that simulate : the transfer of radiation, water vapour, sensible heat, carbon dioxide and momentum in two canopy layers determined by environmental conditions and ecophysiological properties of the vegetation ; uptake and storage of water in the "root-stem-leaf" system of plants ; interception of rainfall by the canopy layers and infiltration and storage of rain water in the four soil layers. A comparison of the results of modeling experiments and field micro-climatic observations in a spruce forest(Picea abies [L].Karst) in the Soiling hills(Germany) shows, that the SLODSVAT can describe and simulate the short-term(diurnal) as well as the long-term(seasonal) variability of water vapour and sensible heat fluxes adequately to natural processes under different environmental conditions. It proves that it is possible to estimate and predict the transpiration and evapotranspiration rates for spruce forest ecosystems on the patch and landscape scales for one vegetation period, if certain meteorological, botanical and hydrological information for the structure of the atmospheric boundary layer, the canopy and the soil are available.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.2 s.163
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• pp.139-150
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• 2006

In recent, increasing of the impervious area gives rise to short concentration time and high peak discharge comparing with natural watershed and it is a cause of urban flood damage. Therefore, we have performed for structural and non-structural plans to reduce the damage from inundation. The Gulpo-cheon basin had been frequently inundated and damaged due to the water level of Han river. So, the Gulpo-cheon floodway was constructed with 20 meters width for flood control in the basin but it was not enough for our expectation and now we have a plan to expand the floodway to 80 meters. We use a XP-SWMM model developed based on EPA-SWMM version for analyzing the capacity of flood conveyance by the expansion of Gulpo-cheon floodway with the same 100 years return period design storm and the same tidal conditions of the Yellow sea. The flood conveyance after the expansion of floodway becomes three times comparing it with before the expansion. Also we simulate the flood discharge at the diversion point of Gulpo-cheon for the expanded condition of floodway and know that the discharge of about 300 m3/sec is flowing backward to the expanded floodway. Therefore we may need some kinds of hydraulic structures to prevent the back water.

• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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• v.20 no.1 s.26
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• pp.9-27
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• 2006

The East Asian (China, Korea and Japan) summer monsoon precipitation and its variability are examined from the outputs of the 22 coupled climate models performing coordinated experiments leading to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) following the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique. Results are based on averages of all the available models. The shape of the annual cycle with maximum during the summer monsoon period is simulated by the coupled climate models. However, models fail to simulate the minimum peak in July which is associated with northward shifts of the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu precipitation band. The MME precipitation pattern is able to capture the spatial distribution of rainfall associated with the location of the north Pacific subtropical high and the Meiyu-Changma-Baiu frontal zone. However precipitation over the east coast of China, Korea-Japan peninsular and the adjoining oceanic regions is underestimated. Future projections to the radiative forcing of doubled $CO_2$ scenario are examined. The MME reveals an increase in precipitation varying from 5 to 10 %, with an average of 7.8 % over the East Asian region at the time of $CO_2$ doubling. However the increases are statistically significant only over the Korea-Japan peninsula and the adjoining north China region. The increase in precipitation may be attributed to the projected intensification of the subtropical high, and thus the associated influx of moist air from the Pacific to inland. The projected changes in the amount of precipitation are directly proportional to the changes in the strength of the subtropical high. Further a possible increase in the length of the summer monsoon precipitation period from late spring through early autumn is suggested.