• Title/Summary/Keyword: Rainfall and Flood

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A Prediction Model for Forecast of the Onset Date of Changmas (장마 시작일 예측 모델)

  • Lee, Hyoun-Young;Lee, Seung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geographical Society
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.112-122
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    • 1993
  • Since more than 50${\%}$ of annual precipitation in Korea falls during Changma, the rainy season of early summer, and Late Changma, the rainy season of late summer, forcasting the onset days Changmas, and the amount related rainfalls would be necessary not only for agriculture but also for flood-control. In this study the authors attempted to build a prediction model for the forecast of the onset date of Changmas. The onset data of each Changma was derived out of daily rainfall data of 47 stations for 30 years(1961~1990) and weather maps over East Asia. Each station represent any of the 47 districts of local forecast under the Korea Meteorological Administration. The average onset dates of Changma during the period was from 21 through 26 June. The dates show a tendency to be delayed in El Ni${\~{n}}o years while they come earlier than the average in La Nina years. In 1982, the year of El Ni${\~{n}}o, the date was 9 Julu, two weeks late compared with the average. The relation of sea surface temperature(SST) over Pacific and Northern hemispheric 500mb height to the Changma onset dates was analyzed for the prediction model by polynomial regression. The onset date of Changma over Korea was correlated with SST in May(SST${_(5)}{^\circ}$C) of the district (8${^\circ}$~12${^\circ}S, 136${^\circ}~148${^\circ}W)of equatirial middle Pacific and the 500mb height in March (MB${_(3)}$"\;"m)over the district of the notrhern Hudson Bay. The relation between this two elements can be expressed by the regression: Onset=5.888SST${_5}"\;"+"\;"0.047MB${_(3)}$"\;"-251.241. This equation explains 77${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level. The onset dates of Late Changma come in accordance with the degeneration of the Subtro-pical High over northern Pacific. They were 18 August in average for the period showing positive correlation(r=0.71) with SST in May(SST)${_(i5)}{^\circ}$C) over district of IndiaN Ocean near west coast of Australia (24${^\circ}$~32${^\circ}$S, 104${^\circ}$~112${^\circ}$E), but negativ e with SST in May(SST${_(p5)}{^\circ}$ over district (12${^\circ}$~20${^\circ}$S,"\;"136${^\circ}$~148${^\circ}$W)of equatorial mid Pacific (r=-0.70) and with the 500mb height over district of northwestern Siberia (r=-0.62). The prediction model for Late Changma can be expressed by the regression: Onset=706.314-0.080 MB-3.972SST${_(p5)}+3.896 SST${_(i5)}, which explains 64${\%}$ of variances at the 0.01${\%}$ singificance level.

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Regional Development And Dam Construction in Korea (한국의 지역개발과 댐건설)

  • 안경모
    • Water for future
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.38-42
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    • 1976
  • Because of differences in thoughts and ideology, our country, Korea has been deprived of national unity for some thirty years of time and tide. To achieve peaceful unification, the cultivation of national strength is of paramount importance. This national strength is also essential if Korea is to take rightful place in the international societies and to have the confidence of these societies. However, national strength can never be achieved in a short time. The fundamental elements in economic development that are directly conducive to the cultivation of national strength can be said to lie in -a stable political system, -exertion of powerful leadership, -cultivation of a spirit of diligence, self-help and cooperation, -modernization of human brain power, and -establishment of a scientific and well planned economic policy and strong enforcement of this policy. Our country, Korea, has attained brilliant economic development in the past 15 years under the strong leadership of president Park Chung Hee. However, there are still many problems to be solved. A few of them are: -housing and home problems, -increasing demand for employment, -increasing demand for staple food and -the need to improve international balance of payment. Solution of the above mentioned problems requires step by step scientific development of each sector and region of our contry. As a spearhead project in regional development, the Saemaul Campaign or new village movement can be cited. The campaign is now spreading throughout the country like a grass fire. However, such campaigns need considerable encouragement and support and the means for the desired development must be provided if the regional and sectoral development program is to sucdceed. The construction of large multipurpose dams in major river basin plays significant role in all aspects of national, regional and sectoral development. It ensures that the water resource, for which there is no substitute, is retained and utilized for irrigation of agricultural areas, production of power for industry, provision of water for domestic and industrial uses and control of river water. Water is the very essence of life and we must conserve and utilize what we have for the betterment of our peoples and their heir. The regional and social impact of construction of a large dam is enormous. It is intended to, and does, dras tically improve the "without-project" socio-economic conditions. A good example of this is the Soyanggang multipurpose dam. This project will significantly contribute to our national strength by utilizing the stored water for the benefit of human life and relief of flood and drought damages. Annual average precipitation in Korea is 1160mm, a comparatively abundant amount. The catchment areas of the Han River, Keum River, and Youngsan River are $62,755\textrm{km}^2$, accounting for 64% of the national total. Approximately 62% of the national population inhabits in this area, and 67% of the national gross product comes from the area. The annual population growth rate of the country is currently estimated at 1.7%, and every year the population growth in urban area increases at a rising rate. The population of Seoul, Pusan, and Taegu, the three major cities in Korea, is equal to one third of our national total. According to the census conducted on October 1, 1975, the population in the urban areas has increased by 384,000, whereas that in rural areas has decreased by 59,000,000 in the past five years. The composition of population between urban and rural areas varied from 41%~59% in 1959 to 48%~52% in 1975. To mitigate this treand towards concentration of population in urban areas, employment opportunities must be provided in regional and rural areas. However, heavy and chemical industries, which mitigate production and employment problems at the same time, must have abundant water and energy. Also increase in staple food production cannot be attained without water. At this point in time, when water demand is rapidly growing, it is essential for the country to provide as much a reservoir capacity as possible to capture the monsoon rainfall, which concentarated in the rainy seaon from June to Septesmber, and conserve the water for year round use. The floods, which at one time we called "the devil" have now become a source of immense benefit to Korea. Let me explain the topographic condition in Korea. In northern and eastern areas we have high mountains and rugged country. Our rivers originate in these mountains and flow in a general southerly or westerly direction throught ancient plains. These plains were formed by progressive deposition of sediments from the mountains and provide our country with large areas of fertile land, emminently suited to settlement and irrigated agricultural development. It is, therefore, quite natural that these areas should become the polar point for our regional development program. Hower, we are fortunate in that we have an additional area or areas, which can be used for agricultural production and settlement of our peoples, particularly those peoples who may be displaced by the formation of our reservoirs. I am speaking of the tidelands along the western and southern coasts. The other day the Ministry of Agriculture and Fishery informed the public of a tideland reclamation of which 400,000 hectares will be used for growing rice as part of our national food self-sufficiency programme. Now, again, we arrive at the need for water, as without it we cannot realize this ambitious programme. And again we need those dams to provide it. As I mentioned before, dams not only provide us with essential water for agriculture, domestic and industrial use, but provide us with electrical energy, as it is generally extremely economical to use the water being release for the former purposes to drive turbines and generators. At the present time we have 13 hydro-electric power plants with an installed capacity of 711,000 kilowatts equal to 16% of our national total. There are about 110 potential dams ites in the country, which could yield about 2,300,000 kilowatts of hydro-electric power. There are about 54 sites suitable for pumped storage which could produce a further 38,600,000 kilowatts of power. All available if we carefully develop our water resources. To summarize, water resource development is essential to the regional development program and the welfare of our people, it must proceed hand-in-hand with other aspects of regional development such as land impovement, high way extension, development of our forests, erosion control, and develop ment of heavy and chemical industries. Through the successful implementation of such an integrated regional development program, we can look forward to a period of national strength, and due recognition of our country by the worlds societies.

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