• 물과 미래
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• 제25권1호
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• pp.93-100
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• 1992

Abstract A study on the Derivation of the Unit Hydrograph using Multiple Regression Moe이. The purpose of this study is to deriver an optimal unit hydrograph suing the multiple regression model, particularly when only small amount of data is available. The presence of multicollinearity among the input data can cause serious oscillations in the derivation of the unit hydrograph. In this case, the oscillations in the unit hydrograph ordinate are eliminated by combining the data. The data used in this study are based upon the collection and arrangement of rainfall-runoff data(1977-1989) at the Soyang-river Dam site. When the matrix X is the rainfall series, the condition number and the reciprocal of the minimum eigenvalue of XTX are calculated by the Jacobi an method, and are compared with the oscillation in the unit hydrograph. The optimal unit hydrograph is derived by combining the numerous rainfall-runoff data. The conclusions are as follows; 1)The oscillations in the derived unit hydrograph are reduced by combining the data from each flood event. 2) The reciprocals of the minimum eigen\value of XTX, 1/k and the condition number CN are increased when the oscillations are active in the derived unit hydrograph. 3)The parameter estimates are validated by extending the model to the Soyang river Dam site with elimination of the autocorrelation in the disturbances. Finally, this paper illustrates the application of the multiple regression model to drive an optimal unit hydrograph dealing with the multicollinearity and the autocorrelation which cause some problems.

• 대기
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• 제27권3호
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• pp.345-358
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• 2017

The decadal change in rainfall for Changma period over the South Korea in early-2000s is detected in this study. The Changma rainfall in P1 (1992~2002) decade is remarkably less than in P2 (2003~2013) decade. The much rainfall in P2 decade is associated with the increase of rainy day frequency during Changma period, including the frequent occurrences of rainy day with a intensity of 30 mm/day or more in P2 decade. This decadal change in the Changma rainfall is due to the decadal change of atmospheric circulation around the Korean Peninsula which affects the intensity and location of Changma rainfall. During P2 decade, the anomalous anti-cyclone over the south of the Korean Peninsula, which represents the expansion of the North Pacific high with warm and wet air mass toward East Asia, is stronger than in P1 decade. In addition, the upper level zonal wind and meridional gradient of low-level equivalent potential temperature in P2 decade is relatively strengthened over the northern part of the Korean Peninsula than in P1 decade, which corresponds with the intensification of meridional gradient between air mass related to the East Asian summer monsoon nearby the Korean Peninsula in P2 decade. The enhanced meridional gradient of atir mass during P2 decade is favorable condition for the intensification of Changma rainfall band and more Changma rainfall. The atmospheric conditions related to enhanced Changma rainfall during P2 decade is likely to be influenced by the teleconnection linked to the suppressed convection anomaly over the southern part of China and South China Sea in P2 decade.

• 대한공간정보학회지
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.19-27
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• 2012

RUSLE는 강우침식, 토양침식, 지형적 특징, 경작관리 등과 같은 유역 토양유실량 산정에 널리 사용되어 왔다. RUSLE 관련 매개변수 중 강우침식인자는 가장 민감도가 큰 요소로 그 신뢰성을 높이는 것은 정확한 유역 토양유식량 산정을 위한 필수조건이다. 국내에서는 유역의 토양침식을 조절하고 토양유실량 산정을 위한 강우침식인자 산정에 대한 명확한 기준이 마련되어 있지 않고 연평균 강우량과 침식인자의 관계식을 이용하거나 TRB에서 제안한 방법을 이용하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 빈도분석을 이용하여 강우침식인자를 산정하는 절차를 제안하였다. 다양한 재현빈도와 지속기간에 대해 계산된 강우침식인자는 지속시간에 따라 정규분포 형태로 나타났기 때문에 확률분포함수를 이용해서 강우침식인자를 산정할 수 있도록 적합분포함수를 제안하였다. 본 연구에서 제안한 방법을 통하여 유역의 토양유식을 효과적으로 조절하고 구조물에 대한 설계토양유실량을 계산하기 위한 최적의 강우침식인자를 산정할 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

• 대기
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.1-15
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• 2022

Recently, Japan's Meteorological Research Institute presented the d4PDF database (Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change, d4PDF) through large-scale climate ensemble simulations to overcome uncertainty arising from variability when the general circulation model represents extreme-scale precipitation. In this study, the change of precipitation characteristics between the historical and future climate conditions in the Yongdam-dam basin was analyzed using the d4PDF data. The result shows that annual mean precipitation and seasonal mean precipitation increased by more than 10% in future climate conditions. This study also performed an analysis on the change of the return period rainfall. The annual maximum daily rainfall was extracted for each climatic condition, and the rainfall with each return period was estimated. In this process, we represent the extreme-scale rainfall corresponding to a very long return period without any statistical model and method as the d4PDF provides rainfall data during 3,000 years for historical climate conditions and during 5,400 years for future climate conditions. The rainfall with a 50-year return period under future climate conditions exceeded the rainfall with a 100-year return period under historical climate conditions. Consequently, in future climate conditions, the magnitude of rainfall increased at the same return period and, the return period decreased at the same magnitude of rainfall. In this study, by using the d4PDF data, it was possible to analyze the change in extreme magnitude of rainfall.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2009년도 학술발표회 초록집
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• pp.986-990
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• 2009

Using artificial rainfall simulator, the soil loss, which is deemed as most cause of muddy water problem among Non-point source(NPS) pollutant, was studied by the analysis of direct runoff flow, groundwater runoff, and groundwater storage properties concerned with rainfall intensity, slope of area, and land cover. The direct runoff showed increasing tendency in both straw covered and bared boxes which are 5%, 10%, and 20% sloped respectively. Also the direct runoff volume from straw covered surface boxes were much lower than bared surface boxes. It's deemed as that the infiltration capacity of straw covered surface boxes were increased, because the surface sealing by fine material of soil surface didn't occurred due to the straw covering. Under the same rainfall intensity and slope condition, 2.4 ${\sim}$ 8.2 times of sediment yield were occurred from bared surface boxes more than straw covered surface boxes. The volume of infiltrated were increased due to straw cover, the direct runoff flow were decreased with decreasing of tractive force in surface. To understand of relationship the rate of direct runoff flow, groundwater runoff, and groundwater storage by the rainfall intensity, slope, and land cover, the statistical test was performed. It shows good relationship between most of factors, expect between the rate of groundwater storage and rainfall intensity.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제50권6호
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• pp.3-12
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• 2008

It is important to estimate accurate effective rainfall to analyse flood flow and long-term runoff for the rational planning, design, and management of water resource. The initial abstraction is also important to estimate effective rainfall. The Soil Conservation Service (SCS) has developed a procedure and it has been most commonly applied to estimate effective rainfall. But the SCS method still has weak points, because of unnatural assumptions such as antecedent moisture conditions and initial abstraction. The coefficient of initial abstraction(K) is depending on the soil moisture condition and antecedent rainfall. The maximum storage capacity of Umax which is calibrated by stream flow data in the proposed watershed was derived from the DAWAST(DAily WAtershed STreamflow) model. The values of K obtained from 69 storm events at the five watersheds are ranging from 0.133 to 0.365 and its mean value is 0.207. Effective rainfall could be estimated more reasonably by introducing new concept of initial abstraction. The equation of $K=0.076Sa^{0.255}$ was recommended instead of 0.2 and it could be applicable to the small-medium rural watersheds.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제19권12호
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• pp.15-23
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• 2018

우리나라에서 발생하는 대부분의 토양침식은 물에 의한 토양침식이며 강우와 밀접한 관계를 가진다. 강우로부터 발생하는 토양침식은 토지자원의 손실을 발생시키고 이후 하천에 유입되고 퇴적되어 하천수자원의 관리 및 이용에 많은 어려움을 주고 있다. 최근 기후변화의 영향으로 우리나라에서는 30mm/hr 이상의 집중호우의 발생횟수가 증가하고 있어 단기간에 토양침식이 발생할 가능성이 높아지고 있다. 본 연구에서는 강우의 물리적인 특성을 고려하기 위하여 누적분포함수를 이용하여 강우강도별 강우입자의 분포를 추정하고 단일 호우사상이 가지는 강우에너지를 계산하는 방법을 제안하고자 하였다. 강우에너지 산정공식을 개발하기 위하여 강우강도 0.254~152.4mm/hr에서 측정된 강우입자 자료를 이용하였다. 누적분포함수를 적용하여 산정된 강우에너지는 강우강도의 관계에서 멱함수형태로 증가하는 경향으로 나타났으며, 이 관계로 얻어진 식을 바탕으로 1~80mm/hr 강우강도의 강우 운동에너지를 산정한 결과 $0.03{\sim}48.26Jm^{-2}mm^{-1}$로 나타났다. 강우강도와 강우에너지의 관계를 바탕으로 강우에너지 식을 멱함수로 제시하였다. 본 연구에서 제안된 공식은 한시적으로 설치하는 침사지와 같은 시설물의 규모를 결정하는 계획의 토양침식량을 예측에 활용될 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

• 한국전자파학회논문지
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• 제11권5호
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• pp.813-821
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• 2000

위성통신 경로의 강우감쇠량을 예측하기 위하여 국제적으로 여러 가지 예측모델들이 개발 운용되고 있다. 이러한 예측 모델들은 대부분 미국과 유럽을 비롯한 위성 선진국에서 개발한 것으로 국내의 강우환경을 고려하여 개발된 모델은 없는 실정이다. 본 논문에서는 한국전자통신연구원에서 측정한 강우환경 및 강우감쇠 데이터를 이용하여, 국내 위성통신망에서 고려할 수 있는 강우감쇠량 예측 방법에 대해 기술하였다. 특히, 기존 예측 모델들이 적용한 강우경로의 수평적 변화를 고려한 유효경로 길이 예측 기법에서 탈피하여, 위성통신망에서 필연적으로 고려하여야 할 강우경로의 수직적 변화까지도 고려한 유효경로 예측기법을 유도하고 이를 제안하였다. 본 논문에서 제안한 예측 기법은 국내 강우환경에 적합한 예측 기법으로써, 향후 설계 및 운용될 10GHz 이상의 국내 위성 및 무선통신시스템에 매우 효율적으로 활용할 수 있을 것이다. ^u The engineering of satellite communication systems at frequencies above 10GHz requires a method for estimating rain-caused outage probabilities on the earth-satellite path. A procedure for predicting a rain attenuation distribution from a point rainfall rate distribution is, therefore, needed. In order to predict rain attenuation on the satellite link, several prediction models such as ITU-R, Global, SAM, DAH model, have been developed and used at a particular propagation condition, they may not be appropriate to a propagation condition in Korean territory. In this paper, a new rain attenuation prediction method appropriate to a propagation condition in Korea is introduced. Based on the results from ETRI measurements, a new method has been derived for an empirical approach with an identification on the horizontal correction factor as in current ITU-R method, and the vertical correction factor has been suggested with decreasing power law as a function of rainfall rate. This proposed model uses the entire rainfall rate distribution as input to the model, while the ITU-R and DAH model approaches only use a single 0.01% annual rainfall rate and assume that the attenuation at other probability levels can be determined from that single point distribution. This new model was compared with several world-wide prediction models. Based on the analysis, we can easilty know the importance of the model choice to predict rain attenuation for a particular location in the radio communication system design.

• 산업기술연구
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• 제27권B호
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• pp.193-199
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• 2007

This paper is a result of a case study about landslides at Whacheon area in Kangwondo occurred during heavy rainfall in 2006. A-day-accumulative rainfalls from July 12 to July 13 and July 15 to July 16 were 120mm and 110mm respectively. Five sites at which slope failures occurred were visited to figure out main causes of slope failures by investigating characteristics of rainfall, geological formation, topography and ground surface exploration around the boundary of the landslides. Based on the site investigation characteristics of landslide with respect to rainfall pattern, geological and topographical condition and pattern of landslide were evaluated.

• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제38권2호
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• pp.249-259
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• 2018

우리나라의 기후 지형적 특성에 따라 연강수량의 50% 이상이 여름철에 내린다. 이러한 짧은 기간에 집중적으로 내리는 강수량 조건하에 수공구조물을 설계할 경우 대부분 극치빈도분석을 활용한다. 특히 우리나라의 경우 Gumbel 분포를 활용한 극치빈도분석을 많이 이용한다. 하지만, 최근 이상기후로 인하여 전세계적으로 강수량의 특징이 급격히 변하고 있으며, 우리나라 연강수량 특징도 바뀌고 있다. 즉, 기존의 단일 분포형으로 재현이 가능했던 수문기상 자료들이 혼합분포형의 특징을 가지게 되었으며 이러한 변화를 고려할 수 있는 극치빈도분석 개발이 요구되고 있는 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 두 개 이상의 첨두를 가지는 형태의 극치강수량 자료에 대해서 기존의 단일 Gumbel 분포형 기반 극치빈도분석과 혼합 Gumbel 분포형 기반의 극치빈도분석 결과를 비교하였다. 확률분포의 매개변수 산정시 우도함수를 Bayesian 기법을 통해 산정하여 각 분포형의 Bayesian information criterion (BIC) 값을 비교하였다. 분석한 결과, 앞서 제안된 혼합 Gumbel 분포형은 하나의 첨두를 가지는 단일 Gumbel 분포형에서 반영되지 못한 꼬리(tail)부분의 이중첨두 부분의 거동을 효과적으로 모의하는 것을 확인할 수 있었다. 결과적으로 설계강수량을 추정할 때 보다 신뢰성있는 접근이 가능하였다. 이러한 점에서 우리나라 극치강우자료 분석시 기존 단일분포기반의 빈도해석기법에 대안으로 적용이 가능할 것으로 판단된다.