• Title/Summary/Keyword: RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)

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Flood Runoff Measurements using Surface Image Velocimetry (표면영상유속계(SIV)를 이용한 홍수유출량 측정)

  • Kim, Yong-Seok;Yang, Sung-Kee;Yu, Kwon-Kyu;Kim, Dong-Su
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.5
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    • pp.581-589
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    • 2013
  • Surface Image Velocimetry(SIV) is an instrument to measure water surface velocity by using image processing techniques. Since SIV is a non-contact type measurement method, it is very effective and useful to measure water surface velocity for steep mountainous streams, such as streams in Jeju island. In the present study, a surface imaging velocimetry system was used to calculate the flow rate for flood event due to a typhoon. At the same time, two types of electromagnetic surface velocimetries (electromagnetic surface current meter and Kalesto) were used to observe flow velocities and compare the accuracies of each instrument. The comparison showed that for velocity distributions root mean square error(RMSE) was 0.33 and R-squared was 0.72. For discharge measurements, root mean square error(RMSE) reached 6.04 and R-squared did 0.92. It means that surface image velocimetry could be used as an alternative method for electromagnetic surface velocimetries in measuring flood discharge.

A Study on Development of a Prediction Model for the Sound Pressure Level Related to Vehicle Velocity by Measuring NCPX Measurement (NCPX 계측 방법에 따른 속도별 소음 데시벨 예측 모델 개발에 대한 연구)

  • Kim, Do Wan;An, Deok Soon;Mun, Sungho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.15 no.4
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSES : The objective of this study is to provide for the overall SPL (Sound Pressure Level) prediction model by using the NCPX (Noble Close Proximity) measurement method in terms of regression equations. METHODS: Many methods can be used to measure the traffic noise. However, NCPX measurement can powerfully measure the friction noise originated somewhere between tire and pavement by attaching the microphone at the proximity location of tire. The overall SPL(Sound Pressure Level) calculated by NCPX method depends on the vehicle speed, and the basic equation form of the prediction model for overall SPL was used, according to the previous studies (Bloemhof, 1986; Cho and Mun, 2008a; Cho and Mun, 2008b; Cho and Mun, 2008c). RESULTS : After developing the prediction model, the prediction model was verified by the correlation analysis and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error). Furthermore, the correlation was resulted in good agreement. CONCLUSIONS: If the polynomial overall SPL prediction model can be used, the special cautions are required in terms of considering the interpolation points between vehicle speeds as well as overall SPLs.

Estimating Automobile Insurance Premiums Based on Time Series Regression (시계열 회귀모형에 근거한 자동차 보험료 추정)

  • Kim, Yeong-Hwa;Park, Wonseo
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.237-252
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    • 2013
  • An estimation model for premiums and components is essential to determine reasonable insurance premiums. In this study, we introduce diverse models for the estimation of property damage premiums(premium, depth and frequency) that include a regression model using a dummy variable, additive independent variable model, autoregressive error model, seasonal ARIMA model and intervention model. In addition, the actual property damage premium data was used to estimate the premium, depth and frequency for each model. The estimation results of the models are comparatively examined by comparing the RMSE(Root Mean Squared Errors) of estimates and actual data. Based on real data analysis, we found that the autoregressive error model showed the best performance.

A Study on Development of the Prediction Model Related to the Sound Pressure in Terms of Frequencies, Using the Pass-by and NCPX Method (Pass-by계측과 NCPX계측에 의한 주파수 별 음압 예측 모델 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Do Wan;Mun, Sungho;An, Deok Soon;Son, Hyeon Jang
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.79-91
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    • 2013
  • PURPOSES : The methods of measuring the sound from the noise source are Pass-by method and NCPX (Noble Close Proximity) method. These measuring methods were used to determine the linkage of TAPL (Total Acoustic Pressure Level) and SPL (Sound Pressure Level) in terms of frequencies. METHODS : The frequency analysis methods are DFT (Discrete Fourier Transform) and FFT (Fast Fourier Transform), CPB (Constant Percentage Bandwidth). The CPB analysis was used in this study, based on the 1/3 octave band option configured for the frequency analysis. Furthermore, the regression analysis was used at the condition related to the sound attenuation effect. The MPE (Mean Percentage Error) and RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) were utilized for calculating the error. RESULTS : From the results of the CPB frequency analysis, the predicted SPL along the frequency has 99.1% maximum precision with the measured SPL, resulting in roughly 1 dB(A) error. The TAPL results have precision by 99.37% with the measured TAPL. The predicted TAPL results at this study by using the SPL prediction model along the frequency have the maximum precision of 98.37% with the vehicle velocity. CONCLUSIONS : The Predicted SPL model along the frequency and the TAPL result by using the predicted SPL model have a high level of accuracy through this study. But the vehicle velocity-TAPL prediction model from the previous study by using the log regression analysis cannot be consistent with the TAPL result by using the predicted SPL model.

Analysis of Land Surface Temperature from MODIS and Landsat Satellites using by AWS Temperature in Capital Area (수도권 AWS 기온을 이용한 MODIS, Landsat 위성의 지표면 온도 분석)

  • Jee, Joon-Bum;Lee, Kyu-Tae;Choi, Young-Jean
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.315-329
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    • 2014
  • In order to analyze the Land Surface Temperature (LST) in metropolitan area including Seoul, Landsat and MODIS land surface temperature, Automatic Weather Station (AWS) temperature, digital elevation model and landuse are used. Analysis method among the Landsat and MODIS LST and AWS temperature is basic statistics using by correlation coefficient, root-mean-square error and linear regression etc. Statistics of Landsat and MODIS LST are a correlation coefficient of 0.32 and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 4.61 K, respectively. And statistics of Landsat and MODIS LST and AWS temperature have the correlations of 0.83 and 0.96 and the RMSE of 3.28 K and 2.25 K, respectively. Landsat and MODIS LST have relatively high correlation with AWS temperature, and the slope of the linear regression function have 0.45 (Landsat) and 1.02 (MODIS), respectively. Especially, Landsat 5 has lower correlation about 0.5 or less in entire station, but Landsat 8 have a higher correlation of 0.5 or more despite of lower match point than other satellites. Landsat 7 have highly correlation of more than 0.8 in the center of Seoul. Correlation between satellite LSTs and AWS temperature with landuse (urban and rural) have 0.8 or higher. Landsat LST have correlation of 0.84 and RMSE of more than 3.1 K, while MODIS LST have correlation of more than 0.96 and RMSE of 2.6 K. Consequently, the difference between the LSTs by two satellites have due to the difference in the optical observation and detection the radiation generated by the difference in the area resolution.

Volatility analysis and Prediction Based on ARMA-GARCH-typeModels: Evidence from the Chinese Gold Futures Market (ARMA-GARCH 모형에 의한 중국 금 선물 시장 가격 변동에 대한 분석 및 예측)

  • Meng-Hua Li;Sok-Tae Kim
    • Korea Trade Review
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.211-232
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    • 2022
  • Due to the impact of the public health event COVID-19 epidemic, the Chinese futures market showed "Black Swan". This has brought the unpredictable into the economic environment with many commodities falling by the daily limit, while gold performed well and closed in the sunshine(Yan-Li and Rui Qian-Wang, 2020). Volatility is integral part of financial market. As an emerging market and a special precious metal, it is important to forecast return of gold futures price. This study selected data of the SHFE gold futures returns and conducted an empirical analysis based on the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH)-type model. Comparing the statistics of AIC, SC and H-QC, ARMA (12,9) model was selected as the best model. But serial correlation in the squared returns suggests conditional heteroskedasticity. Next part we established the autoregressive moving average ARMA-GARCH-type model to analysis whether Volatility Clustering and the leverage effect exist in the Chinese gold futures market. we consider three different distributions of innovation to explain fat-tailed features of financial returns. Additionally, the error degree and prediction results of different models were evaluated in terms of mean squared error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE), Theil inequality coefficient(TIC) and root mean-squared error (RMSE). The results show that the ARMA(12,9)-TGARCH(2,2) model under Student's t-distribution outperforms other models when predicting the Chinese gold futures return series.

Estimating speech parameters for ultrasonic Doppler signal using LSTM recurrent neural networks (LSTM 순환 신경망을 이용한 초음파 도플러 신호의 음성 패러미터 추정)

  • Joo, Hyeong-Kil;Lee, Ki-Seung
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.433-441
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    • 2019
  • In this paper, a method of estimating speech parameters for ultrasonic Doppler signals reflected from the articulatory muscles using LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) RNN (Recurrent Neural Networks) was introduced and compared with the method using MLP (Multi-Layer Perceptrons). LSTM RNN were used to estimate the Fourier transform coefficients of speech signals from the ultrasonic Doppler signals. The log energy value of the Mel frequency band and the Fourier transform coefficients, which were extracted respectively from the ultrasonic Doppler signal and the speech signal, were used as the input and reference for training LSTM RNN. The performance of LSTM RNN and MLP was evaluated and compared by experiments using test data, and the RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) was used as a measure. The RMSE of each experiment was 0.5810 and 0.7380, respectively. The difference was about 0.1570, so that it confirmed that the performance of the method using the LSTM RNN was better.

Method for Evaluating Optimal Air Monitoring Sites for SO2 in Ulsan (울산광역시 아황산가스(SO2)의 최적관측소 평가방법)

  • Lim, Junghyun;Yoon, Sanghoo
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.26 no.9
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    • pp.1073-1080
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    • 2017
  • Manufacturing and technology industries produce large amounts of air pollutants. Ulsan Metropolitan City, South Korea, is well-known for its large industrial complexes; in particular, the concentration of $SO_2$ here is the highest in the country. We assessed $SO_2$ monitoring sites based on conditional and joint entropy, because this is a common method for determining an optimal air monitoring network. Monthly $SO_2$ concentrations from 12 air monitoring sites were collected, and the distribution of spatial locations was determined by kriging. Mean absolute error, Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), bias and correlation coefficients were employed to evaluate the considered algorithms. An optimal air monitoring network for Ulsan was suggested based on the improvement of RMSE.

Mean fragmentation size prediction in an open-pit mine using machine learning techniques and the Kuz-Ram model

  • Seung-Joong Lee;Sung-Oong Choi
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.34 no.5
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    • pp.547-559
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    • 2023
  • We evaluated the applicability of machine learning techniques and the Kuz-Ram model for predicting the mean fragmentation size in open-pit mines. The characteristics of the in-situ rock considered here were uniaxial compressive strength, tensile strength, rock factor, and mean in-situ block size. Seventy field datasets that included these characteristics were collected to predict the mean fragmentation size. Deep neural network, support vector machine, and extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) models were trained using the data. The performance was evaluated using the root mean squared error (RMSE) and the coefficient of determination (r2). The XGBoost model had the smallest RMSE and the highest r2 value compared with the other models. Additionally, when analyzing the error rate between the measured and predicted values, XGBoost had the lowest error rate. When the Kuz-Ram model was applied, low accuracy was observed owing to the differences in the characteristics of data used for model development. Consequently, the proposed XGBoost model predicted the mean fragmentation size more accurately than other models. If its performance is improved by securing sufficient data in the future, it will be useful for improving the blasting efficiency at the target site.

Evaluation of the Dynamic Modulus by using the Impact Resonance Testing Method (비파괴충격파 시험법을 이용한 동탄성계수 평가)

  • Kim, Dowan;Jang, ByungKwan;Mun, Sungho
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.35-41
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : The dynamic modulus for a specimen can be determined by using either the non-destructed or destructed testing method. The Impact Resonance Testing (IRT) is the one of the non-destructed testing methods. The MTS has proved the source credibility and has the disadvantages which indicate the expensive equipment to operate and need a lot of manpower to manufacture the specimens because of the low repeatability with an experiment. To overcome these shortcomings from MTS, the objective of this paper is to compare the dynamic modulus obtained from IRT with MTS result and prove the source credibility. METHODS : The dynamic modulus obtained from IRT could be determined by using the Resonance Frequency (RF) from the Frequency Response Function (FRF) that derived from the Fourier Transform based on the Frequency Analysis of the Digital Signal Processing (DSP)(S. O. Oyadigi; 1985). The RF values are verified from the Coherence Function (CF). To estimate the error, the Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) method could be used. RESULTS : The dynamic modulus data obtained from IRT have the maximum error of 8%, and RMSE of 2,000MPa compared to the dynamic modulus measured by the Dynamic Modulus Testing (DMT) of MTS testing machine. CONCLUSIONS : The IRT testing method needs the prediction model of the dynamic modulus for a Linear Visco-Elastic (LVE) specimen to improve the suitability.