• Title/Summary/Keyword: RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error)

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Parametric Analysis of the Solar Radiation Pressure Model for Precision GPS Orbit Determination

  • Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2017
  • The SRP (Solar Radiation Pressure) model has always been an issue in the dynamic GPS (Global Positioning System) orbit determination. The widely used CODE (Center for Orbit Determination in Europe) model and its variants have nine parameters to estimate the solar radiation pressure from the Sun and to absorb the remaining forces. However, these parameters show a very high correlation with each other and, therefore, only several of them are estimated at most of the IGS (International GNSS Service) analysis centers. In this study, we attempted to numerically verify the correlation between the parameters. For this purpose, a bi-directional, multi-step numerical integrator was developed. The correlation between the SRP parameters was analyzed in terms of post-fit residuals of the orbit. The integrated orbit was fitted to the IGS final orbit as external observations. On top of the parametric analysis of the SRP parameters, we also verified the capabilities of orbit prediction at later time epochs. As a secondary criterion for orbit quality, the positional discontinuity of the daily arcs was also analyzed. The resulting post-fit RMSE (Root-Mean-Squared Error) shows a level of 4.8 mm on average and there is no significant difference between block types. Since the once-per-revolution parameters in the Y-axis are highly correlated with those in the B-axis, the periodic terms in the D- and Y-axis are constrained to zero in order to resolve the correlations. The 6-hr predicted orbit based on the previous day yields about 3 cm or less compared to the IGS final orbit for a week, and reaches up to 6 cm for 24 hours (except for one day). The mean positional discontinuity at the boundary of two 1-day arcs is on the level of 1.4 cm for all non-eclipsing satellites. The developed orbit integrator shows a high performance in statistics of RMSE and positional discontinuity, as well as the separations of the dynamic parameters. In further research, additional verification of the reference frame for the estimated orbit using SLR is necessary to confirm the consistency of the orbit frames.

Efficiency of occlusal and interproximal adjustments in CAD-CAM manufactured single implant crowns - cast-free vs 3D printed cast-based

  • Graf, Tobias;Guth, Jan-Frederik;Diegritz, Christian;Liebermann, Anja;Schweiger, Josef;Schubert, Oliver
    • The Journal of Advanced Prosthodontics
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    • v.13 no.6
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    • pp.351-360
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    • 2021
  • PURPOSE. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of occlusal and interproximal adjustments of single implant crowns (SIC), comparing a digital cast-free approach (CF) and a protocol using 3D printed casts (PC). MATERIALS AND METHODS. A titanium implant was inserted at position of lower right first molar in a typodont. The implant position was scanned using an intraoral scanner and SICs were fabricated accordingly. Ten crowns (CF; n = 10) were subject to a digital cast-free workflow without any labside occlusal and interproximal modifications. Ten other identical crowns (PC) were adjusted to 3D printed casts before delivery. All crowns were then adapted to the testing model, simulating chair-side adjustments during clinical placement. Adjustment time, quantity of adjustments, and contact relationship were assessed. Data were analyzed using SPSS software (P < .05). RESULTS. Median and interquartile range (IQR) of clinical adjustment time was 02:44 (IQR 00:45) minutes in group CF and 01:46 (IQR 00:21) minutes in group PC. Laboratory and clinical adjustment time in group PC was 04:25 (IQR 00:59) minutes in total. Mean and standard deviation (±SD) of root mean squared error (RMSE) of quantity of clinical adjustments was 45 ± 7 ㎛ in group CF and 34 ± 6 ㎛ in group PC. RMSE of total adjustments was 61 ± 11 ㎛ in group PC. Quality of occlusal contacts was better in group CF. CONCLUSION. Time effort for clinical adjustments was higher in the cast-free protocol, whereas quantity of modifications was lower, and the occlusal contact relationship was found more favourable.

Skill Assessments for Evaluating the Performance of the Hydrodynamic Model (해수유동모델 검증을 위한 오차평가방법 비교 연구)

  • Kim, Tae-Yun;Yoon, Han-Sam
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2011
  • To evaluate the performance of the hydrodynamic model, we introduced 10 skill assessments that are assorted by two groups: quantitative skill assessments (Absolute Average Error or AAE, Root Mean Squared Error or RMSE, Relative Absolute Average Error or RAAE, Percentage Model Error or PME) and qualitative skill assessments (Correlation Coefficient or CC, Reliability Index or RI, Index of Agreement or IA, Modeling Efficiency or MEF, Cost Function or CF, Coefficient of Residual Mass or CRM). These skill assessments were applied and calculated to evaluate the hydrodynamic modeling at one of Florida estuaries for water level, current, and salinity as comparing measured and simulated values. We found that AAE, RMSE, RAAE, CC, IA, MEF, CF, and CRM are suitable for the error assessment of water level and current, and AAE, RMSE, RAAE, PME, CC, RI, IA, CF, and CRM are good at the salinity error assessment. Quantitative and qualitative skill assessments showed the similar trend in terms of the classification for good and bad performance of model. Furthermore, this paper suggested the criteria of the "good" model performance for water level, current, and salinity. The criteria are RAAE < 10%, CC > 0.95, IA > 0.98, MEF > 0.93, CF < 0.21 for water level, RAAE < 20%, CC > 0.7, IA > 0.8, MEF > 0.5, CF < 0.5 for current, and RAAE < 10%, PME < 10%, CC > 0.9, RI < 1.15, CF < 0.1 for salinity.

Soft computing based mathematical models for improved prediction of rock brittleness index

  • Abiodun I. Lawal;Minju Kim;Sangki Kwon
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.33 no.3
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    • pp.279-289
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    • 2023
  • Brittleness index (BI) is an important property of rocks because it is a good index to predict rockburst. Due to its importance, several empirical and soft computing (SC) models have been proposed in the literature based on the punch penetration test (PPT) results. These models are very important as there is no clear-cut experimental means for measuring BI asides the PPT which is very costly and time consuming to perform. This study used a novel Multivariate Adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5P, and white-box ANN to predict the BI of rocks using the available data in the literature for an improved BI prediction. The rock density, uniaxial compressive strength (σc) and tensile strength (σt) were used as the input parameters into the models while the BI was the targeted output. The models were implemented in the MATLAB software. The results of the proposed models were compared with those from existing multilinear regression, linear and nonlinear particle swarm optimization (PSO) and genetic algorithm (GA) based models using similar datasets. The coefficient of determination (R2), adjusted R2 (Adj R2), root-mean squared error (RMSE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) were the indices used for the comparison. The outcomes of the comparison revealed that the proposed ANN and MARS models performed better than the other models with R2 and Adj R2 values above 0.9 and least error values while the M5P gave similar performance to those of the existing models. Weight partitioning method was also used to examine the percentage contribution of model predictors to the predicted BI and tensile strength was found to have the highest influence on the predicted BI.

Development of Code-PPP Based on Multi-GNSS Using Compact SSR of QZSS-CLAS (QZSS-CLAS의 Compact SSR을 이용한 다중 위성항법 기반의 Code-PPP 개발)

  • Lee, Hae Chang;Park, Kwan Dong
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.38 no.6
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    • pp.521-531
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    • 2020
  • QZSS (Quasi-Zenith Satellite System) provides the CLAS (Centimeter Level Augmentation Service) through the satellite's L6 band. CLAS provides correction messages called C-SSR (Compact - State Space Representation) for GPS (Global Positioning System), Galileo and QZSS. In this study, CLAS messages were received by using the AsteRx4 of Septentrio which is a GPS receiver capable of receiving L6 bands, and the messages were decoded to acquire C-SSR. In addition, Multi-GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) Code-PPP (Precise Point Positioning) was developed to compensate for GNSS errors by using C-SSR to pseudo-range measurements of GPS, Galileo and QZSS. And non-linear least squares estimation was used to estimate the three-dimensional position of the receiver and the receiver time errors of the GNSS constellations. To evaluate the accuracy of the algorithms developed, static positioning was performed on TSK2 (Tsukuba), one of the IGS (International GNSS Service) sites, and kinematic positioning was performed while driving around the Ina River in Kawanishi. As a result, for the static positioning, the mean RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) for all data sets was 0.35 m in the horizontal direction ad 0.57 m in the vertical direction. And for the kinematic positioning, the accuracy was approximately 0.82 m in horizontal direction and 3.56 m in vertical direction compared o the RTK-FIX values of VRS.

A study on solar radiation prediction using medium-range weather forecasts (중기예보를 이용한 태양광 일사량 예측 연구)

  • Sujin Park;Hyojeoung Kim;Sahm Kim
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.36 no.1
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    • pp.49-62
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    • 2023
  • Solar energy, which is rapidly increasing in proportion, is being continuously developed and invested. As the installation of new and renewable energy policy green new deal and home solar panels increases, the supply of solar energy in Korea is gradually expanding, and research on accurate demand prediction of power generation is actively underway. In addition, the importance of solar radiation prediction was identified in that solar radiation prediction is acting as a factor that most influences power generation demand prediction. In addition, this study can confirm the biggest difference in that it attempted to predict solar radiation using medium-term forecast weather data not used in previous studies. In this paper, we combined the multi-linear regression model, KNN, random fores, and SVR model and the clustering technique, K-means, to predict solar radiation by hour, by calculating the probability density function for each cluster. Before using medium-term forecast data, mean absolute error (MAE) and root mean squared error (RMSE) were used as indicators to compare model prediction results. The data were converted into daily data according to the medium-term forecast data format from March 1, 2017 to February 28, 2022. As a result of comparing the predictive performance of the model, the method showed the best performance by predicting daily solar radiation with random forest, classifying dates with similar climate factors, and calculating the probability density function of solar radiation by cluster. In addition, when the prediction results were checked after fitting the model to the medium-term forecast data using this methodology, it was confirmed that the prediction error increased by date. This seems to be due to a prediction error in the mid-term forecast weather data. In future studies, among the weather factors that can be used in the mid-term forecast data, studies that add exogenous variables such as precipitation or apply time series clustering techniques should be conducted.

Forecasts of the BDI in 2010 -Using the ARIMA-Type Models and HP Filtering (2010년 BDI의 예측 -ARIMA모형과 HP기법을 이용하여)

  • Mo, Soo-Won
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.222-233
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    • 2010
  • This paper aims at predicting the BDI from Jan. to Dec. 2010 using such econometric techniues of the univariate time series as stochastic ARIMA-type models and Hodrick-Prescott filtering technique. The multivariate cause-effect econometric model is not employed for not assuring a higher degree of forecasting accuracy than the univariate variable model. Such a cause-effect econometric model also fails in adjusting itself for the post-sample. This article introduces the two ARIMA models and five Intervention-ARIMA models. The monthly data cover the period January 2000 through December 2009. The out-of-sample forecasting performance is compared between the ARIMA-type models and the random walk model. Forecasting performance is measured by three summary statistics: root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean error (ME). The RMSE and MAE indicate that the ARIMA-type models outperform the random walk model And the mean errors for all models are small in magnitude relative to the MAE's, indicating that all models don't have a tendency of overpredicting or underpredicting systematically in forecasting. The pessimistic ex-ante forecasts are expected to be 2,820 at the end of 2010 compared with the optimistic forecasts of 4,230.

Preliminary Study of Deep Learning-based Precipitation

  • Kim, Hee-Un;Bae, Tae-Suk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Surveying, Geodesy, Photogrammetry and Cartography
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    • v.35 no.5
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    • pp.423-430
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    • 2017
  • Recently, data analysis research has been carried out using the deep learning technique in various fields such as image interpretation and/or classification. Various types of algorithms are being developed for many applications. In this paper, we propose a precipitation prediction algorithm based on deep learning with high accuracy in order to take care of the possible severe damage caused by climate change. Since the geographical and seasonal characteristics of Korea are clearly distinct, the meteorological factors have repetitive patterns in a time series. Since the LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) is a powerful algorithm for consecutive data, it was used to predict precipitation in this study. For the numerical test, we calculated the PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor) based on the tropospheric delay of the GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) signals, and then applied the deep learning technique to the precipitation prediction. The GNSS data was processed by scientific software with the troposphere model of Saastamoinen and the Niell mapping function. The RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) of the precipitation prediction based on LSTM performs better than that of ANN (Artificial Neural Network). By adding GNSS-based PWV as a feature, the over-fitting that is a latent problem of deep learning was prevented considerably as discussed in this study.

Modeling the growth of Listeria monocytogenes during refrigerated storage of un-packaging mixed press ham at household

  • Lee, Seong-Jun;Park, Myoung-Su;Bahk, Gyung-Jin
    • Journal of Preventive Veterinary Medicine
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.143-147
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    • 2018
  • The present study aimed to develop growth prediction models of Listeria monocytogenes in processed meat products, such as mixed pressed hams, to perform accurate microbial risk assessments. Considering cold storage temperatures and the amount of time in the stages of consumption after opening, the growth of L. monocytogenes was determined as a function of temperature at 0, 5, 10, and $15^{\circ}C$, and time at 0, 1, 3, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30 days. Based on the results of these measurements, a Baranyi model using the primary model was developed. The input parameters of the Baranyi equation in the variable temperature for polynomial regression as a secondary model were developed: $SGR=0.1715+0.0199T+0.0012T^2$, $LT=5.5730-0.3215T+0.0051T^2$ with $R^2$ values 0.9972 and 0.9772, respectively. The RMSE (Root mean squared error), $B_f$ (bias factor), and $A_f$ (accuracy factor) on the growth prediction model were determined to be 0.30, 0.72, and 1.50 in SGR (specific growth rate), and 0.10, 0.84, and 1.35 in LT (lag time), respectively. Therefore, the model developed in this study can be used to determine microorganism growth in the stages of consumption of mixed pressed hams and has potential in microbial risk assessments (MRAs).

Estimation of Missing Records in Daily Climate Data over the Korean Peninsula (한반도의 과거 기후 데이터 구축을 위한 누락된 기록 추정)

  • Noh, Gyu-Ho;Ahn, Kuk-Hyun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2020.06a
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    • pp.135-135
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    • 2020
  • 우리나라의 기후 자료는 일반적으로 기상청에서 발표하는 종관기상관측(ASOS)과 방재기상관측(AWS), 그리고 북한이 세계기상기구(WMO, World Meteorogical Organization)의 기상통신망(GTS)을 통해 보낸 북한기상관측(NKO)을 사용 할 수 있다. 그러나 이 중 40년 이상의 완전한 관측 자료를 얻을 수 있는 건 ASOS가 유일하지만 공간적인 표현에 한계를 갖고 있다. AWS는 관측소가 많다는 장점이 있지만 관측 기간이 길지 않고 이용 가능한 기간에도 관측이 연속적이지 못한 경우가 많다. NKO는 비록 27개의 관측소가 있지만 많은 데이터가 누락되어 일별 기후자료의 사용에 한계를 갖고 있다. 이러한 미관측 기간이나 관측 자료의 누락은 연속적인 시계열 자료분석을 기반으로 하는 수자원 모델링에 있어서 문제를 야기한다. 본 연구는 1973년부터 2019년까지 47년의 신뢰도 높은 한반도 일일 기후 자료를 구축하기 위해 다양한 방법론을 비교하였다. 추정에 사용한 방법은 총 7개로 EM algorithm for probabilistic principal components (PPCA-EM), Inverse distance weight method (IDWM), Nearest neighbor method (NNM), Multivariate normal copulas (Copula), Elastic net model (Elastic), Ordinary kriging (OK), Regularized principal components with EM algorithm (RPCA-EM)를 살펴보았다. 다양한 형태의 결측치를 가정하여 그 결과값을 비교하였고 이는 Root mean squared error(RMSE), Kling-Gupta efficiency(KGE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(NSE)를 통해 평가하였다. 최종 선택된 방법론을 통하여 한반도 전역을 그리드 기반의 강수 및 최저온도/최고온도의 일별자료로 생성하였다.

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