• East Asian Economic Review
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• 제16권3호
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• pp.273-290
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• 2012

While the issue of RMB (Renminbi, Chinese Yuan) revaluation became the focus of world attention in 2003, the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005 didn't fundamentally solve the RMB appreciation problem, and even in 2008 the global financial crisis made RMB appreciation face new challenges and risks. It appears that the rise in RMB value is caused by supply exceeding demand in China's foreign exchange market; however, intrinsically it is due to the asymmetry in RMB exchange rate formation mechanism. The export tax rebates policy implemented by Chinese government is one of the leading causes of the asymmetry. This study constructs a transmission model between export tax rebates and foreign exchange rates, and applies the Granger Test to validate the causality between kernel variables based on correlative data from 1994-2011, and uses the error correction method to analyze the quantified relations of kernel variables, and finally gets the contribution rate of export tax rebates to RMB appreciation.

• 한국컴퓨터정보학회논문지
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• 제20권11호
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• pp.135-142
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• 2015

This paper applied a VAR model to analyze the effects of RMB exchange rate brought to processing trade, non-processing trade and FDI. Then we can get the results that the appreciation of RMB could not solve the problem of US trade deficit. It is more likely that the appreciation just can transfer the trade imbalance to other country with US, which could not radically solve the economic problems of US. Also this paper find that the data of service trade is surplus while the main goods deficit was occur in advanced technology product, especially in the information & communications trade And US has real advantage in these industries, so the situation will be changed if US decreased the barrier in these industries. In that way, the imbalance situation should be greatly reduced.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.5-10
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• 2017

Purpose - The purpose of this paper was to analyze the Chinese government's announcement of the RMB's appreciation on July 1, 2010, and its aim was to ascertain whether the appreciation has affected Chinese export prices by empirically measuring the degree of the exchange rate pass-tough on those prices. Research design, data, and methodology - Using 73 HS trade categories with cross-industry and time-series data, the panel estimation of a fixed-effects model has been applied to measure the degree and stability of any exchange rate pass-through effects. The estimation results show that the export prices of most trade categories were affected by the exchange rate changes. The pass-through effect was generally small, at about -0.485, and statistically significant in most export prices. Results - The empirical results indicate that China would lose its advantage and competitiveness in export if the RMB were appreciated continuously and rapidly because its export goods would no longer operate under strong monopolistic competition. Conclusions - The implications for China's exchange rate policy suggest that it would be better for the RMB to appreciate slowly and gradually rather than radically. It is clear that it would be allow the capital free flow in Chinese overall economic interest to reduce the continuous appreciation pressure on the currency and pave the way for improvements in export distribution competitiveness.

• 융합경영연구
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• 제12권3호
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• pp.1-12
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• 2024

Purpose: As a major economy attracting foreign investment, China is currently facing significant international economic pressure due to the appreciation of the RMB. Additionally, China is at a critical period of socio-economic development, where foreign direct investment (FDI) plays an indispensable role in stabilizing economic growth, adjusting industrial structure, and promoting economic transformation. Research design, data and methodology: This paper focuses on the relationship between RMB exchange rate expectations and FDI. It examines the magnitude of their relationship through empirical research using cointegration tests, Granger causality tests, and BVAR (Bayesian Vector Autoregression) analysis. Results: The comprehensive study of the empirical results in this paper concludes that there is a long-term cointegrated relationship between China's RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment, indicating that their relationship is stable in the long run. It is also found that RMB exchange rate expectations have a significantly positive impact in the short term, but this impact is not significant in the long term. Conclusions: The paper also considers the possibility of establishing a China-EU Free Trade Area in the future and offers policy recommendations regarding RMB exchange rate expectations and foreign direct investment.

• 산경연구논집
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.65-75
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• 2019

Purpose - Along with Chinese exchange rate's reform advancement, the issue of exchange rate of RMB has increasingly become the heated focus in the world. In July 2005, China carried out the reform of the exchange rate system, and this behavior has aroused the attention of the world. However, the dispute on whether the theory of purchasing power parity holds or not in China still exists. As such, this paper will attempt to explore whether the purchasing power parity is significant in China. Research design, data, and methodology - The monthly data from July 2005 to December 2017 will be employed to analyze the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar and the nominal exchange rate of RMB against the euro. Based on these datum, an empirical analysis will be conducted under the unit root test and the cointegration test to exploit the significance of purchasing power parity in China. Results - The findings of this paper reveal that an increase in China's consumer price index will lead to an increase in the RMB exchange rate, which will lead to the depreciation of RMB. Concomitantly, an increase in the consumer price index in the US and Europe will result in a decrease in the RMB exchange rate, which will lead to an appreciation of RMB. In general, in terms of the US, if US consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against US dollar will decrease by 0.905%; if China's consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against US dollar will increase by 0.648%. In terms of Europe, if Europe consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against euro will decrease by 0.277%; If China's consumer price index increases by 1%, China's nominal exchange rate against euro will increase by 0.235%. Conclusions - Generally speaking, the empirical evidences this paper provided show that the purchasing power parity theory has a certain explanatory ability for the decision of RMB exchange rate. As such, the purchasing power parity cannot hold completely, and China's government should continue to deepen the reform of the exchange rate system to improve China's exchange rate market.