• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.432-447
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• 2016

The increased frequency of drought and flood due to climate change was a global problem. In particular, drought was recognized as a serious environmental, ecological, social, and economic disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to study the measures to prevent it. In this study, we will estimate the meteorological drought index in the Han River Basin and analyze the impact of climate change on drought. The change of the meteorological drought occurrence due to climate change in the Han River separated by the common drought and severe drought was analyzed using the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenarios provided by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The years 1973 - 2010 were selected for analysis in the current period. Using the scenario, we separated the future period (Target I: 2011 - 2039, Target II: 2040 - 2069, Target III : 2070 - 2099). The number of occurrences of less than -1.0 and -1.5 standard precipitation index were analyzed by SPI 3, 6, 12. Looking at the results, trends in rainfall in the Han River was expected to increase from the current figures, the occurrence of drought is predicted to decline in the future. However, the number of drought occurrence was analyzed to increase toward long-term drought. The number of severe drought occurrences was usually larger than the common drought estimated. Additional studies may be considered in addition to the agricultural drought, hydrological drought, socio-economic drought. This will be done by using efficient water management. The results can be used as a basis for future drought analysis of the Han River.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.451-463
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• 2016

We explore the impact of Chinese future air pollutant emissions on ozone air quality in Northeast Asia (NEA) and health in South-Korea using an assessment framework including ICAMS (The Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System) and BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). The emissions data sets from the climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (emission scenarios, EMSO), are used to simulate ozone air quality in NEA in the current (1996~2005, 2000s), the near future (2016~2025, 2020s) and the distant future (2046~2055, 2050s). Furthermore, the simulated ozone changes in the 2050s are used to analyze ozone-related premature mortality and economic cost in South-Korea. While different EMSOs are applied to the China region, fixed EMSO are used for other country regions to isolate the impacts of the Chinese emissions. Predicted ozone changes in NEA are distinctively affected by large changes in NOx emission over most of China region. Comparing the 2020s with the 2000s situation, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations in NEA is simulated under RCP 8.5 and similarly small increases are under other RCPs. In the 2050s in NEA, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations is simulated under RCP 6.0 and leads to the occurrence of the highest premature mortalities and economic costs in South-Korea. Whereas, the largest decrease is simulated under RCP 4.5 leads to the highest avoided premature mortality numbers and economic costs. Our results suggest that continuous reduction of NOx emissions across the China region under an assertive climate change mitigation scenario like RCP 4.5 leads to improved future ozone air quality and health benefits in the NEA countries including South-Korea.

• Atmosphere
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.303-315
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• 2014

Terrestrial ecosystem plays the important role as carbon sink in the global carbon cycle. Understanding of interactions of terrestrial carbon cycle with climate is important for better prediction of future climate change. In this paper, terrestrial carbon cycle is investigated by Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Carbon Cycle (HadGEM2-CC) that considers vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle with climate. The simulation for future projection is based on the three (8.5/4.5/2.6) representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100 and compared with historical land carbon uptake from 1979 to 2005. Projected changes in ecological features such as production, respiration, net ecosystem exchange and climate condition show similar pattern in three RCPs, while the response amplitude in each RCPs are different. For all RCP scenarios, temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmospheric $CO_2$. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension, causing future increase of terrestrial carbon uptakes in all RCPs. At the end of 21st century, the global average of gross and net primary productions and respiration increase in all RCPs and terrestrial ecosystem remains as carbon sink. This enhancement of land $CO_2$ uptake is attributed by the vegetated area expansion, increasing LAI, and early onset of growing season. After mid-21st century, temperature rising leads to excessive increase of soil respiration than net primary production and thus the terrestrial carbon uptake begins to fall since that time. Regionally the NEE average value of East-Asia ($90^{\circ}E-140^{\circ}E$, $20^{\circ}N{\sim}60^{\circ}N$) area is bigger than that of the same latitude band. In the end-$21^{st}$ the NEE mean values in East-Asia area are $-2.09PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.47PgC\;yr^{-1}$ and zonal mean NEEs of the same latitude region are $-1.12PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.55PgC\;yr^{-1}$, $-0.17PgC\;yr^{-1}$ for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.172-172
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• 2018

물이용의 기후변화 취약성은 기후변화 뿐 아니라 이의 직, 간접적 영향으로 인한 물수요량 변화 등의 다양한 요소에 의한 영향을 받기 때문에 그 정도를 파악하기가 어렵다. 또한 기존의 대부분의 물이용 취약성 평가 연구는 단순 기후요소의 변화만 고려한 경우가 대부분이고 사회경제적 요소의 변화를 반영하지 않았다는 한계가 있다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 강 유역에서 미래 기후 변화와 사회경제적 변화에 따른 물이용 취약성 평가방법을 개발하고, 한강에 적용함으로서 다양한 사회경제시나리오에 따른 강유역의 물이용 취약성이 어떠한 영향을 받는지에 대한 이해에 주안점을 맞췄다. 개발한 평가방법은 지표기반 접근법으로, 다기준 의사결정기법인 Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution(TOPSIS)를 사용하였다. 이 방법은 IPCC의 취약성분석 방법에 사용되고 있으며, 취약성에 대한 정의에 따라 결과 값이 적응능력, 노출, 민감도로 구성되어있다. 사용된 지표 자료는 통계청 등 다양한 국가 통계자료를 기반으로 한 자료뿐 아니라, 일부분은 수문모형인 SWAT(Soil and Water Assessment Tool)모델로부터 모의된 결과를 포함한다. 기후시나리오로 Representative Concentration Pathways(RCPs), 사회경제시나리오로는 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)를 사용하였다. 본 연구의 물이용 취약성 평가결과는 사회경제적 요소의 변화를 기존의 평가방법에 추가 반영하여 미래 전망을 제시하는 향후 수자원 정책 방향에 기초자료로 활용될 수 있을 것이다.

• Korean journal of applied entomology
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• v.57 no.3
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• pp.127-135
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• 2018

Climate change can affect variables related to the life cycle of insects, including growth, development, survival, reproduction and distribution. As it encourages alien insects to rapidly spread and settle, climate change is regarded as one of the direct causes of decreased biodiversity because it disturbed ecosystems and reduces the population of native species. Hypera postica caused a great deal of damage in the southern provinces of Korea after it was first identified on Jeju lsland in the 1990s. In recent years, the number of individuals moving to estivation sites has concerned scientists due to the crop damage and national proliferation. In this study, we examine how climate change could affect inhabitation of H. postica. The MaxEnt model was applied to estimate potential distributions of H. postica using future climate change scenarios, namely, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. As variables of the model, this study used six bio-climates (bio3, bio6, bio10, bio12, bio14, and bio16) in consideration of the ecological characteristics of 66 areas where inhabitation of H. postica was confirmed from 2015 to 2017, and in consideration of the interrelation between prediction variables. The fitness of the model was measured at a considered potentially useful level of 0.765 on average, and the warmest quarter has a high contribution rate of 60-70%. Prediction models (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) results for the year 2050 and 2070 indicated that H. postica habitats are projected to expand across the Korean peninsula due to increasing temperatures.

• Asian Journal of Atmospheric Environment
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• v.11 no.4
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• pp.330-343
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• 2017

Climate change is an important issue, with many researches examining not only future climatic conditions, but also the interaction of climate and air quality. In this study, a new version of the emissions processing software tool - Python-based PRocessing Operator for Climate and Emission Scenarios (PROCES) - was developed to support climate and atmospheric chemistry modeling studies. PROCES was designed to cover global and regional scale modeling domains, which correspond to GEOS-Chem and CMAQ/CAMx models, respectively. This tool comprises of one main system and two units of external software. One of the external software units for this processing system was developed using the GIS commercial program, which was used to create spatial allocation profiles as an auxiliary database. The SMOKE-Asia emissions modeling system was linked to the main system as an external software, to create model-ready emissions for regional scale air quality modeling. The main system was coded in Python version 2.7, which includes several functions allowing general emissions processing steps, such as emissions interpolation, spatial allocation and chemical speciation, to create model-ready emissions and auxiliary inputs of SMOKE-Asia, as well as user-friendly functions related to emissions analysis, such as verification and visualization. Due to its flexible software architecture, PROCES can be applied to any pregridded emission data, as well as regional inventories. The application results of our new tool for global and regional (East Asia) scale modeling domain under RCP scenario for the years 1995-2006, 2015-2025, and 2040-2055 was quantitatively in good agreement with the reference data of RCPs.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.48 no.6
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• pp.439-449
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• 2015

In this study, reliable future runoff projections based on RCPs for Yongdam dam watershed was performed using SWAT model, which was validated by k-fold cross validation method, and investigated the factors that cause the differences with respect to runoff projections between this study and previous studies. As a result, annual average runoff compared to baseline runoff would increase 17.7% and 26.1% in 2040s and 2080s respectively under RCP8.5 scenario, and 21.9% and 44.6% in 2040s and 2080s respectively under RCP4.5 scenario. Comparing the results to previous studies, minimum and maximum differences between runoff projections over different studies were 10.3% and 53.2%, even though runoff was projected by the same rainfall-runoff model. SWAT model has 27 parameters and physically based complex structure, so it tends to make different results by the model users' setting. In the future, it is necessary to reduce the cause of difference to generate standard runoff scenarios.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.7 no.4
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• pp.433-442
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• 2016

In this study, we examine future changes in surface radiation associated with cloud amount and aerosol emission over East Asia. Data in this study is HadGEM2-CC (Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2, Carbon Cycle) simulations of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6/4.5/8.5. Results show that temperature and precipitation increase with rising of the atmosphere $CO_2$. At the end of $21^{st}$ century (2070~2099) relative to the end of $20^{st}$ century (1981~2005), changes in temperature and precipitation rate are expected to increase by $+1.85^{\circ}C/+6.6%$ for RCP2.6, $+3.09^{\circ}C/+8.5%$ for RCP4.5, $+5.49^{\circ}C/10%$ for RCP8.5. The warming results from increasing Net Down Surface Long Wave Radiation Flux (LW) and Net Down Surface Short Wave Radiation Flux (SW) as well. SW change increases mainly from reduced total Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and low-level cloud amount. LW change is associated with increasing of atmospheric $CO_2$ and total cloud amount, since increasing cloud amounts are related to absorb LW radiation and remit the energy toward the surface. The enhancement of precipitation is attributed by increasing of high-level cloud amount. Such climate conditions are favorable for vegetation growth and extension. Expansion of C3 grass and shrub is distinct over East Asia, inducing large latent heat flux increment.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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• v.18 no.2
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• pp.79-88
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• 2015

Preparations need to be made for Korean pine(Pinus koraiensis) in anticipation of climate change because Korean pine is an endemic species of South Korea and the source of timber and pine nut. Therefore, climate change adaptation policy has been established to conduct an impact assessment on the distribution of Korean pine. Our objective was to predict the distribution of Korean pine while taking into account uncertainty and afforestation conditions. We used the 5th forest types map, a forest site map and BIOCLIM variables. The climate scenarios are RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 for uncertainty and the climate models are 5 regional climate models (HadGEM3RA, RegCM4, SNURCM, GRIMs, WRF). The base period for this study is 1971 to 2000. The target periods are the mid-21st century (2021-2050) and the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). This study used the MaxEnt model, and 50% of the presences were randomly set as training data. The remaining 50% were used as test data, and 10 cross-validated replicates were run. The selected variables were the annual mean temperature (Bio1), the precipitation of the wettest month (Bio13) and the precipitation of the driest month (Bio14). The test data's ROC curve of Korean pine was 0.689. The distribution of Korean pine in the mid-21st century decreased from 11.9% to 37.8% on RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied from 32.1% to 45.4% on both RCPs. The areas at the end of the 21st century declined by 53.9% on RCP 4.5 and by 86.0% on RCP 8.5. The area of Korean pine at an artificial plantation occupied 23.8% on RCP 4.5 and 7.2% on RCP 8.5. Private forests showed more of a decrease than national forests for all subsequent periods. Our results may contribute to the establishment of climate change adaptation policies for considering various adaptation options.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.6
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• pp.427-436
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• 2020

It is uncertain how global climate change will influence future drought characteristics over the Korean peninsula. This study aims to project the future droughts using climate change and land use change scenarios over the Korean peninsula with the land surface modeling system, i.e., Weather Research and Forecasting Model Hydrological modeling system (WRF-Hydro). The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5 are used as future climate scenarios and the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), specifically SSP2, is adopted for the land use scenario. The using Threshold Level Method (TLM), we identify future hydrological and ecological drought events with runoff and Net Primary Productivity (NPP), respectively, and assess drought characteristics of durations and intensities in different scenarios. Results show that the duration of drought is longer over RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future (2031-2050) and RCP8.5-SSP2 (2080-2099) for the far future for hydrological drought. On the other hand, RCP2.6-SSP2 for the far future and RCP8.5-SSP2 for the near future show longer duration for ecological drought. In addition, the drought intensities in both hydrological and ecological drought show different characteristics with the drought duration. The intensity of the hydrological droughts was greatly affected by threshold level methods and RCP2.6-SSP2 for far future shows the severest intensity. However, for ecological drought, the difference of the intensity among the threshold level is not significant and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future and RCP2.6-SSP2 for near future show the severest intensity. This study suggests a possible future drought characteristics is in the Korea peninsula using combined climate and land use changes, which will help the community to understand and manage the future drought risks.