• 한국환경복원기술학회지
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• 제17권3호
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• pp.1-11
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• 2014

Recently, major cities in Korea are suffering from frequent urban flooding caused by heavy rainfall. Such urban flooding mainly occurs due to the limited design capacity of the current drainage network, which increases the vulnerability of the cities to cope with intense precipitation events brought about by climate change. In other words, it can be interpreted that runoff exceeding the design capacity of the drainage network and increased impervious surfaces in the urban cities can overburden the current drainage system and cause floods. The study presents the green roof as a sustainable solution for this issue, and suggests the pre-design using the LID controls model in SWMM to establish more specific flood prevention system. In order to conduct the computer simulation in connection with Korean climate, the study used the measured precipitation data from Cheonan Station of Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the forecasted precipitation data from RCP 8.5 scenario. As a result, Extensive Green Roof System reduced the peak runoff by 53.5% with the past storm events and by 54.9% with the future storm events. The runoff efficiency was decreased to 4% and 7%. This results can be understood that Extensive Green Roof System works effectively in reducing the peak runoff instead of reducing the total stormwater runoff.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제50권6호
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• pp.387-395
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• 2017

기후변화에 따른 해수면 상승으로 인하여 해안지역의 지하수계에 해수침투가 가중된다. 지하수의 염분농도가 증가하면 지하수면 상부의 불포화 토양에서도 염분 농도가 증가할 수 있으며, 이는 농경지에서 작물피해를 일으킬 수 있다. 해수면이 상승함에 따라 내륙의 지하수위도 함께 상승한다. 이는 불포화 토양층의 두께를 감소시켜 해안 저지대의 경작에 피해를 끼칠 수 있다. 본 연구에서 지하수 해수침투는 3차원 모델, 토양 염류화 평가는 연직 1차원 모델을 합성 적용하여 해안 농경지에 대한 해수면 상승 피해를 평가하는 방법을 개발하였다. 3차원 해수침투 모델에서 지하수면의 수위와 농도분포를 계산하고 최상부 절점 중에서 염분 농도가 기준 값 이상인 절점에서 지하수면과 지표면 사이의 토양층에서 연직 1차원 모델링으로 토양층의 염분 농도와 불포화대 두께를 계산하였다. 농경지의 토양 염류화는 작물의 뿌리 심도에서 보통 작물의 생육한계 염분농도를 기준으로 판단하였다. 개발된 모델링 방법을 가상의 간척농경지에 적용하였다. 해수면 상승자료로 IPCC의 RCP 4.5와 8.5 시나리오를 사용하였다. 평가 결과는 2050년과 2100년에 대하여 제시하였다. 연구결과 대상지역에서 기후변화 시나리오 RCP 8.5에서 2100년에는 지하수 염류화 피해 면적은 간척지 육지면적 대비 7.8%, 염류화 토양 면적은 6.0%, 불포화층의 두께가 뿌리심도보다 적은 지역의 면적은 1.6% 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다.

• 한국습지학회지
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• 제21권spc호
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• pp.149-156
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• 2019

기후변화에 대한 기존 댐의 수문학적 안전성을 평가하고 적응방안을 마련하는 것은 장기적인 물공급과 관리 측면에서 중요하다. 국내 주요 댐은 '시설물의 안전 및 유지관리에 관한 특별법'에 따른 주기적인 점검과 유지보수를 통해 안전을 확보하도록 하고 있다. 특히 정밀안전진단을 수행할 경우에는 가능최대강수량(PMP)을 이용한 수문학적 안전성을 평가하고 위험에 대비하도록 하고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화가 댐의 수문학적 안전성에 미치는 영향을 평가하기 위해 RCP4.5와 RCP8.5 온실가스 배출시나리오에 기반해 산정한 미래 가능최대강수량(PMP)을 이용하였다. 분석기간은 2011년~2040년, 2041년~2070년, 2071년~2100년으로 선정하였다. 국내 4개 댐(A, B, C, I)을 대상으로 가능최대홍수량(PMF)에 대해 평가한 결과 RCP 시나리오와 분석기간에 따라 다소 차이는 있으나 기후변화가 3개 댐(A, B, I)의 월류 위험성을 증가시킬 것으로 나타났다. 이 결과는 기존 댐의 기후변화 적응을 위해서는 비구조적 대책과 더불어 장기적인 구조적 대책 마련도 필요함을 시사하였다.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권2호
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• pp.61-72
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• 2015

In this study, we have investigated monthly changes in temperature extremes in South Korea for the past (1921~2010) and the future (2011~2100). We used seven stations' (Gangneung, Seoul, Incheon, Daegu, Jeonju, Busan, Mokpo) data from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) for the past. For the future we used the closest grid point values to observations from the RCP8.5 scenario of 1 km resolution. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI)'s climate extreme indices were employed to quantify the characteristics of temperature extremes change. Temperature extreme indices in summer have increased while those in winter have decreased in the past. The extreme indices are expected to change more rapidly in the future than in the past. The number of frost days (FD) is projected to decrease in the future, and the occurrence period will be shortened by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century (2071~2100) compared to the present (1981~2010). The number of hot days (HD) is projected to increase in the future, and the occurrence period is projected to lengthen by two months at the end of the $21^{st}$ century compared to the present. The annual highest temperature and its fluctuation is expected to increase. Accordingly, the heat damage is also expected to increase. The result of this study can be used as an information on damage prevention measures due to temperature extreme events.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권6호
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• pp.87-99
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• 2013

For analysis of climate change effects on agriculture, precise agricultural meteorological data are needed to target period and site. In this study, agricultural meteorological data under new climate change scenario (RCP 8.5) are constructed from 2011 to 2099 in 111 agriculture major station suggested by Rural Development Administration (RDA). For verifying constructed data, comparison with field survey data in Suwon shows same trend in maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average temperature, and precipitation in 2011. Also comparison with normals of daily data in 2025, 2055, and 2085 shows reliability of constructed data. In analysis of constructed data, we can calculate sum of days over temperature and under temperature. Results effectively show the change of average temperature in each region and odd days of precipitation which means flood and dry days in target region.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제6권3호
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• pp.243-248
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• 2015

This study was conducted to predict the changes of potential distribution for invasive alien plant, Conyza bonariensis in Korea. C. bonariensis was found in southern Korea (Jeju, south coast, southwest coast). The habitats of C. bonariensis were roadside, bare ground, farm area, and pasture, where the interference by human was severe. Due to the seed characteristics of Compositae, C. bonariensis take long scattering distance and it will easily spread by movement of wind, vehicles and people. C. canadensis in same Conyza genus has already spread on a national scale and it is difficult to manage. We used maximum entropy modeling (MaxEnt) for analyzing the environmental influences on C. bonariensis distribution and projecting on two different RCP scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The results of our study indicated annual mean temperature, elevation and temperature seasonality had higher contribution for C. bonariensis potential distribution. Area under curve (AUC) values of the model was 0.9. Under future climate scenario, the constructed model predicted that potential distribution of C. bonariensis will be increased by 338% on RCP 4.5 and 769% on RCP 8.5 in 2100s.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제58권1호
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• pp.39-51
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• 2016

Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme flood exceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected by two main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should be considered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land use change scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floods of 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulation described that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changes in design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligible because the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.

• 대기
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• 제29권5호
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• pp.585-597
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• 2019

This study evaluates the performance of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in simulating temperature over the COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment-East Asia (CORDEX-EA) Phase 2 domain for the reference period (1981~2005), and assesses the changes in temperature and its extremes in the mid-21st century (2026~2050) under global warming based on Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. MPI-ESM-LR forced by two RCP scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) is used as initial and lateral boundary conditions. Overall, WRF can capture the observed features of temperature distribution reflecting local topographic characteristic, despite some disagreement between the observed and simulated patterns. Basically, WRF shows a systematic cold bias in daily mean, minimum and maximum temperature over the entire domain. According to the future projections, summer and winter mean temperatures over East Asia will significantly increase in the mid-21st century. The mean temperature rise is expected to be greater in winter than in summer. In accordance with these results, summer (winter) is projected to begin earlier (later) in the future compared to the historical period. Furthermore, a rise in extreme temperatures shows a tendency to be greater in the future. The averages of daily minimum and maximum temperatures above 90 percentiles are likely to be intensified in the high-latitude, while hot days and hot nights tend to be more frequent in the low-latitude in the mid-21st century. Especially, East Asia would be suffered from strong increases in nocturnal temperature under future global warming.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권4호
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• pp.63-72
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• 2018

The main function of an agricultural reservoir is to supply irrigation water to paddy rice fields in South Korea. Therefore, the operation of a reservoir is significantly affected by the phenology of paddy rice. For example, the early stage of irrigation season, a lot of irrigation water is required for transplanting rice. Therefore, water storage in the reservoir before irrigation season can be a key factor for sustainable irrigation, and it becomes more important under climate change situation. In this study, we analyzed the climate change impacts on reservoir storage rate at the beginning of irrigation period and simulated the reservoir storage, runoff, and irrigation water requirement under RCP scenarios. Frequency analysis was conducted with simulation results to analyze water supply probabilities of reservoirs. Water supply probability was lower in RCP 8.5 scenario than in RCP 4.5 scenario because of low precipitation in the non-irrigation period. Study reservoirs are classified into 5 groups by water supply probability. Reservoirs in group 5 showed more than 85 percentage probabilities to be filled up from half-filled condition during the non-irrigation period, whereas group 1 showed less than 5 percentages. In conclusion, reservoir capacity to catchment area ratio mainly affected water supply probability. If the ratio was high, reservoirs tended to have a low possibility to supply enough irrigation water amount.

• 한국산학기술학회논문지
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.1126-1139
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• 2014

도시화 및 산업화에 따른 온실가스의 증가로 전 세계적인 이상기후 현상이 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 국내에서도 이러한 현상의 하나로 홍수와 가뭄의 영향이 지속적으로 심화되고 있다. 기후변화는 이수, 치수, 환경 등 다양한 측면에서 물 관리 전반에 걸쳐 복잡성을 가중시키고 불확실성을 확대시키는 등 많은 영향을 초래한다. 또한 과거와는 달리 하천유지수량, 환경용수량 등 다양한 용수수요의 증가에 따라 제한된 가용수자원의 추가적인 확보를 위한 분석과 연구가 필요하다. 본 연구에서는 안동댐과 임하댐 유역을 대상으로 기후변화 시나리오와 토양수분 저류구조 Tank 모형을 이용하여 장기 유출량을 산정하였고, 연결도수로를 통해 병렬 연결된 안동댐과 임하댐의 저수지 연결모의운영을 수행하여 임하댐에서 안동댐으로 전환되는 추가 가용 수자원량을 분석, 비교함으로서 미래 기후변화가 가용수자원 확보에 미치는 영향을 정량적으로 평가하였다. 대표농도경로 기후변화 시나리오 중 RCP 6.0과 RCP 8.5를 이용하여 대상유역의 상세 수문자료를 생산하여 과거 유역의 관측 강수량 자료와 경향성을 분석한 결과 시나리오별 모두 5%~9%의 범위로 강수량이 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며, 목적함수를 이용한 민감도 분석을 통해 가장 높은 적합도를 나타낸 개체군의 크기는 1000 이었으며 교차비율은 80% 이었다. 본 연구의 결과를 이용하여 미래 기후변화에 대응한 물 관리 측면에서 저수지 운영의 효과를 극대화하고 장기적으로 안정적이고 풍부한 용수공급 계획을 수립하는데 도움이 될 것으로 기대된다.