• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제52권1호
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• pp.71-82
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• 2019

본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 메콩강 유출변화 분석을 목적으로 하고 있다. HadGEM3-RA로 부터 생산된 동아시아 지역 RCP 4.5 및 8.5 시나리오의 일 자료를 기반으로 편의보정을 통해 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 구축한 후, SWAT 모형을 이용하여 메콩강 주요지점인 Kratie(유역면적: $646,000km^2$, 메콩강의 연평균 유량의 88%)에서의 유출변화 모의하고 유황분석을 수행하였다. 기후변화 분석 결과 Kratie 유역의 미래 강수량은 기준 년 연평균 강수량 대비 미래 년 기간의 연평균 강수량은 두 시나리오 모두 증가하는 것으로 분석되었으며 월별 강수량 변화 분석을 통해 6월~11월에 강수량의 증가가 비교적 크게 나타나며 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오에서 강수량의 변동 폭 및 증가량이 크게 나타남을 확인하였다. 시나리오별 월평균 최대 및 최소기온의 변화는 두 시나리오 모두 미래 기온의 상승을 전망하고 있으며 특히 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 온도증가 폭이 크게 나타나는 것을 확인 하였다. 또한 하천유황변화 분석결과 유역의 유량변동성이 더욱 커질 것으로 분석되었으며 저수계수 값이 52~57% 감소하고 갈수계수 값이 67~74% 감소하는 것으로 나타나 하천의 갈수상황이 지속되어 미래에 가뭄이 보다 심화될 것으로 분석되었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제58권1호
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• pp.39-51
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• 2016

Extreme floods occur more often recently as the frequency of extreme storm events increase due to the climate change. Because the extreme flood exceeding the design flood can cause large-scale disasters, it is important to predict and prepare for the future extreme flood. Flood flow is affected by two main factors; rainfall and land use. To predict the future extreme flood, both changes in rainfall due to the climate change and land use should be considered. The objective of this study was to simulate the future design flood in the Hwangguji river watershed, South Korea. The climate and land use change scenarios were derived from the representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) and hydrologic modelling system (HEC-HMS) models were used to simulate the land use change and design flood, respectively. Design floods of 100-year and 200-year for 2040, 2070, and 2100 under the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios were calculated and analyzed. The land use change simulation described that the urban area would increase, while forest would decrease from 2010 to 2100 for both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The overall changes in design floods from 2010 to 2100 were similar to those of probable rainfalls. However, the impact of land use change on design flood was negligible because the increase rate of probable rainfall was much larger than that of curve number (CN) and impervious area.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제60권1호
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• pp.89-99
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• 2018

This study analyzed the change of the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the Soyanggang dam basin using the results of 26 CMIP5 GCMs based on AR5 RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The SWAT model was used to simulate the dam inflow and evapotranspiration in the target watershed. The simulation was performed during 2010~2016 as the reference year and during 2010~2099 as the analysis period. Bias correction of input data such as precipitation and air temperature were conducted for the reference period of 2006~2016. Results were analyzed for 3 different periods, 2025s (2010~2040), 2055s (2041~2070), and 2085s (2071~2099). It demonstrated that the change of dam inflow gradually increases 9.5~15.9 % for RCP 4.5 and 13.3~29.8 % for RCP 8.5. The change of evapotranspiration gradually increases 1.6~8.6 % for RCP 4.5 and 1.5~8.5 % for RCP8.5.

• 한국기후변화학회지
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• 제7권4호
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• pp.421-426
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• 2016

Significant warming by anthropogenic influences over Korea is analyzed using CMIP5 projections (monthly mean, maximum and minimum temperatures) from RCP 8.5, 4.5, and 2.6 scenarios. Time of emergence (TOE) in JJA and DJF is chosen as the year when the magnitude of warming against the natural climate variability satisfies S/N>2 in 80% of the models in this study. Significant emergence in JJA is expected to appear in 2030s in three RCP scenarios, earlier than TOE in DJF. In DJF, TOE is expected to be 2040s in RCP 8.5 and is delayed in 2060s, 2080s in RCP 4.5, 2.6, respectively. Later emergence in low emission scenarios implies an importance of climate change mitigation consistent with previous studies. Maximum and minimum temperatures show similar results to the case of mean temperature. ToE is found to be affected by the amplitude of natural variability by season, variables and model spread, which requires further understanding.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제55권3호
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• pp.13-24
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• 2013

Agriculture is affected directly by climate conditions and changes, and it is necessary to understand the impact of climate change on agricultural reservoirs which are the main water resources for paddy fields in Korea. This study aimed to evaluate the impact of climate change on the anti-drought capacity including water supply capability (WSC) and drought response ability (DRA) of agricultural reservoirs based on RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios of CanESM2 (The Second Generation Earth System Model) provided by CCCma (Canadian Center for Climate Modeling and Analysis). The WSC and DRA were estimated using frequency analysis and runs theory. The six reservoirs (Yooshin, Nogok, Kumsung, Songgok, Gapyung, Seoma) were selected considering geographical characteristics and design criteria of reservoir capacity. In case of Seoma reservoir, more than 10 year drought return period (DRP), the variation of the WSC was estimated larger than the others. In case of Yooshin reservior (2~5 DRP) DRC was decreased in 2025s under RCP8.5. These results could be utilized for agricultural reservoirs management and future design criteria considering climate change impacts on paddy irrigation.

• 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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• pp.36-36
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• 2023

Sedimentation is a natural process that occurs in all reservoirs. Sedimentation problem reduces the storage capacity of the reservoir and limits its ability to provide water for various uses, such as irrigation, hydropower generation, and flood control. Therefore, predicting reservoir sedimentation is important for ensuring the efficient operation and sedimentation management of a reservoir and . In this study, the HECRAS model was applied to predict longitudinal distribution of deposited sediment in the Pleikrong reservoir to 2050. Different scenarios was considered: (i) no climate change, (ii) climate change (under two emissions scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), and (iii) climate change and land use change (followed land use planning of the watershed). The computation results with different scenarios were analyses and compared. The results show that the reservoir reduced storage volume's rate and sedimentation proceed toward to the dam in the case of climate change is faster than in the case of no climate change. Analyses also indicates that following the land used planning could also improve the long-term problem of the reservoir sedimentation. The outcomes of this study will be helpful for a sustainable plan of sediment management for the Pleikrong reservoir.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제54권5호
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• pp.35-41
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• 2012

The paddy rice consumptive use in the six plains of the Korean peninsula was projected with changing climate under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. High resolution climate data for the baseline (1961-1990) was obtained from the International water management institute (IWMI) and future high resolution climate projection was obtained from the Korea Meteorological Administration. Reference evapotranspiration (ET) was calculated by using Hargreaves equation. The results of this study showed that the average annual mean temperature would increase persistently in the future. Temperatures were projected to increase more in RCP8.5 than those in RCP4.5 scenario. The rice consumptive use during the growing period was projected to increase slightly in the 2020s and then more significantly in the 2050s and 2080s. It showed higher values for RCP8.5 than for RCP4.5. The rice consumptive use after transplanting in the study areas would increase by 2.2 %, 5.1 % and 7.2 % for RCP4.5 and 3.0 %, 7.6 %, and 13.3 % for RCP8.5, in the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s, respectively, from the baseline value of 534 mm. The results demonstrated the effects of climate change on rice consumptive use quite well, and can be used in the future agricultural water planning in the Korean peninsula.

• 한국응용곤충학회지
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• 제52권4호
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• pp.427-430
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• 2013

최근 WMO는 온실가스 배출량 시나리오(SRES)를 대신하여 대표농도경로(RCP)를 바탕으로 새로운 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였으며 기상연구소는 RCP 시나리오를 바탕으로 한반도의 새로운 기후변화 시나리오를 생산하였다. 본 연구에서는 과거 관측값을 바탕으로 평년(1981-2010)의 애멸구의 우화시기와 세대수를 추정하였으며, RCP 8.5 시나리오를 바탕으로 2020년대(2015-2024), 2050년대(2045-2054)와 2090년대(2085-2094) 애멸구의 우화시기와 세대수를 예측하였다. 평년 애멸구 월동 1세대수의 우화일인 $176.0{\pm}0.97$일과 비교하여 2050년대에서는 $13.2{\pm}0.18$일($162.8{\pm}0.91$일), 2090년대에는 $32.1{\pm}0.61$일($143.9{\pm}1.08$일) 앞당겨질 것을 예측되었다. 그리고 애멸구의 연간 세대수는 2050년대에서는 현재보다 $2.0{\pm}0.02$세대, 2090년대에는 $5.2{\pm}0.06$세대 증가할 것으로 예측되었다.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제57권2호
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• pp.1-13
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• 2015

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), coordinated by the World Climate Research Programme in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5, is the most recent, provides projections of future climate change using various global climate models under four major greenhouse gas emission scenarios. There is a wide selection of climate models available to provide projections of future climate change. These provide for a wide range of possible outcomes when trying to inform managers about possible climate changes. Hence, future agrometeorological indicators estimation will be much impacted by which global climate model and climate change scenarios are used. Decision makers are increasingly expected to use climate information, but the uncertainties associated with global climate models pose substantial hurdles for agricultural resources planning. Although it is the most reasonable that quantifying of the future uncertainty using climate change scenarios, preliminary analysis using reasonable factors for selecting a subset for decision making are needed. In order to narrow the projections to a handful of models that could be used in a climate change impact study, we could provide effective information for selecting climate model and scenarios for climate change impact assessment using maximum/minimum temperature, precipitation, reference evapotranspiration, and moisture index of nine Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios.

• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제59권6호
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• pp.9-18
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• 2017

The objective of this study was to estimate the climate change impact on inflow to Namgang Dam using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using observed flow data from 2003 to 2014 for the study watershed. The $R^2$ (Determination Coefficient), RMSE (Root Mean Square Error), NSE (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient), and RMAE (Relative Mean Absolute Error) were used to evaluate the model performance. Calibration results showed that the annual mean inflow were within ${\pm}5%$ error compared to the observed. $R^2$ were ranged 0.61~0.87, RMSE were 1.37~7.00 mm/day, NSE were 0.47~0.83, and RMAE were 0.25~0.73 mm/day for daily runoff, respectively. Climate change scenarios were obtained from the HadGEM3-RA. The quantile mapping method was adopted to correct bias that is inherent in the climate change scenarios. Based on the climate change scenarios, calibrated SWAT model simulates the future inflow and evapotranspiration for the study watershed. The expected future inflow to Namgang dam using RCP 4.5 is increasing by 4.8 % and RCP 8.5 is increasing by 19.0 %, respectively. The expected future evapotranspiration for Namgang dam watershed using RCP 4.5 is decreasing by 6.7 % and RCP 8.5 is decreasing by 0.7 %, respectively.