• Atmosphere
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.25-35
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• 2018

This study presents future potential sea level change over the seas surrounding Korea using Climate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 9 model ensemble result from Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), downloaded from icdc.zmaw.de. At the end of 21st century, regional sea level changes are projected to rise 37.8, 48.1, 47.7, 65.0 cm under RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5 scenario, respectively with the large uncertainty from about 40 to 60 cm. The results exhibit similar tendency with the global mean sea level rise (SLR) with small differences less than about 3 cm. For the East Sea, the Yellow Sea, and the southern sea of Korea, projected SLR in the Yellow Sea is smaller and SLR in the southern sea is larger than the other coastal seas. Differences among the seas are small within the range of 4 cm. Meanwhile, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) data in 23 years shows that the mean rate of sea level changes around the Yellow Sea is high relative to the other coastal seas. For sea level change, contribution of ice and ocean related components are important, at local scale, Glacial Isostatic Adujstment also needs to be considered.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Grassland and Forage Science
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• v.40 no.4
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• pp.265-273
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• 2020

We aimed to predict the Italian ryegrass (IRG) productivity change of introduced and domestic varieties based on climate factors and identify suitable areas for IRG cultivation using the RCP 8.5 scenario. The minimum mean air temperature in January showed the highest correlation with productivity. The ratio of possible and low productivity areas was high in Gangwondo, and the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the central and southern regions in the past 30 years. The change in the IRG cultivation area was found to be 26.9% in the best suitable area between 1981-2010 but increased significantly to 88.9% between 2090s. In the IRG suitability comparison classes between domestic and introduced cultivars, the ratio of suitable and best suitable areas was relatively high in the domestic varieties during the past 30 years. However, there is almost no difference between the IRG domestic and introduced varieties in the IRG suitability classes after the 2050s. These results can predict changes in the IRG suitability classes between domestic and introduced cultivars according to the climate change scenario, but there are limitations in accurately predicting the productivity of IRG because the results may vary depending on other environmental factors.

• Korean Journal of Environment and Ecology
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• v.35 no.5
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• pp.480-489
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• 2021

Climate change poses great threats to wildlife populations by decreasing their number and destroying their habitats, jeopardizing biodiversity conservation. Asiatic salamander (Hynobiidae) species are particularly vulnerable to climate change due to their small home range and limited dispersal ability. Thus, this study used one salamander species, the Korean clawed salamander (Onychodactylus koreanus), as a model species and examined their habitat characteristics and current distribution in South Korea to predict its spatial distribution under climate change. As a result, we found that altitude was the most important environmental factor for their spatial distribution and that they showed a dense distribution in high-altitude forest regions such as Gangwon and Gyeongsanbuk provinces. The spatial distribution range and habitat characteristics predicted in the species distribution models were sufficiently in accordance with previous studies on the species. By modeling their distribution changes under two different climate change scenarios, we predicted that the distribution range of the Korean clawed salamander population would decrease by 62.96% under the RCP4.5 scenario and by 98.52% under the RCP8.5 scenario, indicating a sharp reduction due to climate change. The model's AUC value was the highest in the present (0.837), followed by RCP4.5 (0.832) and RCP8.5 (0.807). Our study provides a basic reference for implementing conservation plans for amphibians under climate change. Additional research using various analysis techniques reflecting habitat characteristics and minute habitat factors for the whole life cycle of Korean-tailed salamanders help identify major environmental factors that affect species reduction.

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2016.09a
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• pp.94-103
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• 2016

• Proceedings of The Korean Society of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Conference
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• 2016.09a
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• pp.104-110
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• 2016

• Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.14-28
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• 2020

Future climate change may affect the hydro-thermal and biogeochemical characteristics of dam reservoirs, the most important water resources in Korea. Thus, scientific projection of the impact of climate change on the reservoir environment, factoring uncertainties, is crucial for sustainable water use. The purpose of this study was to predict the future water temperature and stratification structure of the Soyanggang Reservoir in response to a total of 42 scenarios, combining two climate scenarios, seven GCM models, one surface runoff model, and three wind scenarios of hydrodynamic model, and to quantify the uncertainty of each modeling step and scenario. Although there are differences depending on the scenarios, the annual reservoir water temperature tended to rise steadily. In the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, the upper water temperature is expected to rise by 0.029 ℃ (±0.012)/year and 0.048 ℃ (±0.014)/year, respectively. These rise rates are correspond to 88.1 % and 85.7 % of the air temperature rise rate. Meanwhile, the lower water temperature is expected to rise by 0.016 ℃ (±0.009)/year and 0.027 ℃ (±0.010)/year, respectively, which is approximately 48.6 % and 46.3 % of the air temperature rise rate. Additionally, as the water temperatures rises, the stratification strength of the reservoir is expected to be stronger, and the number of days when the temperature difference between the upper and lower layers exceeds 5 ℃ increases in the future. As a result of uncertainty quantification, the uncertainty of the GCM models showed the highest contribution with 55.8 %, followed by 30.8 % RCP scenario, and 12.8 % W2 model.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.6 no.3
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• pp.193-201
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• 2015

The aim of this study is to find preferred climate condition for outdoor water activity and to estimate future change of preferred season for the activity following the climate change. We chose urban public swimming pools, Hangang park swimming pools, which do not have any attractions except pools and allow people to make decision to visit pools in the morning solely based on the weather conditions as study sites. We identified the preferred climate conditions by analyzing the relationship between number of visitors and temperature, wind chill temperature and discomfort indexes. According to the result, the preferred temperature range was from $23.51^{\circ}C$ to $37.56^{\circ}C$, the wind chill temperature range was from $25.90^{\circ}C$ to $39.43^{\circ}C$, the discomfort index range was from 71.61 to 88.98 and the precipitation range was below 22.8 mm per day. When the temperature range is applied as the preferred season, in present, the length of the season is 127 days, from end of May to end of September. However, if temperature increase resulting from lower emission scenario (RCP 6.0), the season would be extended to 162 days, from early May to middle of October. If temperature is increasing under high emission scenario (RCP 8.5), the length of the season would be extended to 173 days from early May to end of October. In addition, the period of between end of July and early August, which is currently the most preferred season, would not be favored anymore due to high temperature. The result of this study further suggests the necessity of climate change adaptation activities.

• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.127-134
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• 2013

In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

• Journal of The Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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• v.62 no.2
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• pp.1-15
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• 2020

In this study, the characteristics of crop damage area by flooding for 113 middle range watersheds during 2000-2016 were analyzed and future crop damage area by flooding were analyzed using 13 GCM outputs such as hourly maximum rainfall, 10-min maximum rainfall, number of days of 80 mm/day, daily rainfall maximum, annual rainfall amount associated with RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and watershed characteristic data such as DEM, urbanization ratio, population density, asset density, road improvement ratio, river improvement ratio, drainage system improvement ratio, pumping capacity, detention basin capacity, and crop damage area by flooding. A constrained multiple linear regression model was used to construct the relationships between the crop damage area by flooding and other variables. Future flood index related to crop damage may mainly increase in the Mankyung watershed, Southwest part of Youngsan and Sumjin river basin and Southern part of Nackdong river basin. Results are useful to identify watersheds which need to establish strategies for responding to future flood damage.

• Journal of Climate Change Research
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• v.9 no.1
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• pp.47-58
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• 2018

In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty in the process of selecting GCM and downscaling method for assessing the impact of climate change, and influence of user-centered climate change information on reproducibility of Chungju Dam inflow was analyzed. First, we selected the top 16 GCMs through the evaluation of spatio-temporal reproducibility of 29 raw GCMs using 30-year average of 10-day precipitation without any bias-correction. The climate extreme indices including annual total precipitation and annual maximum 1-day precipitation were selected as the relevant indices to the dam inflow. The Simple Quantile Mapping (SQM) downscaling method was selected through the evaluation of reproducibility of selected indices and spatial correlation among weather stations. SWAT simulation results for the past 30 years period by considering limitations in weather input showed the satisfactory results with monthly model efficiency of 0.92. The error in average dam inflow according to selection of GCMs and downscaling method showed the bests result when 16 GCMs selected raw GCM analysi were used. It was found that selection of downscaling method rather than selection of GCM is more is important in overall uncertainties. The average inflow for the future period increased in all RCP scenarios as time goes on from near-future to far-future periods. Also, it was predicted that the inflow volume will be higher in the RCP 8.5 scenario than in the RCP 4.5 scenario in all future periods. Maximum daily inflow, which is important for flood control, showed a high changing rate more than twice as much as the average inflow amount. It is also important to understand the seasonal fluctuation of the inflow for the dam management purpose. Both average inflow and maximum inflow showed a tendency to increase mainly in July and August during near-future period while average and maximum inflows increased through the whole period of months in both mid-future and far-future periods.