• Ocean and Polar Research
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• v.35 no.2
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• pp.127-134
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• 2013

In this study we investigated changes in the Tsushima Warm Current (TWC) under the global warming scenario RCP 4.5 by analysing the results from the World Climate Research Program's (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Among the four models that had been employed to analyse the Tsushima Warm Current during the 20th Century, in the CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 and HadGEM2-CC models the transports of the Tsushima Warm Current were 2.8 Sv and 2.1 Sv, respectively, and comparable to observed transport, which is between 2.4 and 2.77 Sv. In the other two models the transports were much greater or smaller than the observed estimates. Using the two models that properly reproduced the transport of the Tsushima Warm Current we investigated the response of the current under the global warming scenario. In both models the volume transports and the temperature were greater in the future climate scenario. Warm advection into the East Sea was intensified to raise the temperature and consequently the heat loss to the air.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.53 no.8
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• pp.583-595
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• 2020

In this study, using the RCP scenario for Hyoja Drainage subbasin of Cheonggyecheon, we analyzed the change with the Historical and Future rainfall calculated from five GCMs models. As a result of analyzing the average rainfall by each GCMs model, the future rainfall increased by 35.30 to 208.65 mm from the historical rainfall. Future rainfall increased 1.73~16.84% than historical rainfall. In addition, the applicability of LID element technologies such as porous pavement, infiltration trench and green roof was analyzed using the SWMM model. And the applied weight and runoff for each LID element technology are analyzed. As a result of the analysis, although there was a difference for each GCMs model, the runoff increased by 2.58 to 28.78%. However, when single porous pavement and Infiltration trench were applied, Future rainfall decreased by 3.48% and 2.74%, 8.04% and 7.16% in INM-CM4 and MRI-CGCM3 models, respectively. Also, when the two types of LID element technologies were combined, the rainfall decreased by 2.74% and 2.89%, 7.16% and 7.31%, respectively. This is less than or similar to the historical rainfall runoff. As a result of applying the LID elemental technology, it was found that applying a green roof area of about 1/3 of the urban area is the most effective to secure the lag time of runoff. Moreover, when applying the LID method to the old downtown area, it is desirable to consider the priority order in the order of economic cost, maintenance, and cityscape.

• Korean Journal of Environmental Biology
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• v.39 no.4
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• pp.526-535
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• 2021

Spatial sampling design plays an important role in GIS-based modeling studies because it increases modeling efficiency while reducing the cost of sampling. In the field of agricultural systems, research demand for high-resolution spatial databased modeling to predict and evaluate climate change impacts is growing rapidly. Accordingly, the need and importance of spatial sampling design are increasing. The purpose of this study was to design spatial sampling of paddy fields (11,386 grids with 1 km spatial resolution) in Korea for use in agricultural spatial modeling. A stratified random sampling design was developed and applied in 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s under two RCP scenarios of 4.5 and 8.5. Twenty-five weather and four soil characteristics were used as stratification variables. Stratification and sample allocation were optimized to ensure minimum sample size under given precision constraints for 16 target variables such as crop yield, greenhouse gas emission, and pest distribution. Precision and accuracy of the sampling were evaluated through sampling simulations based on coefficient of variation (CV) and relative bias, respectively. As a result, the paddy field could be optimized in the range of 5 to 21 strata and 46 to 69 samples. Evaluation results showed that target variables were within precision constraints (CV<0.05 except for crop yield) with low bias values (below 3%). These results can contribute to reducing sampling cost and computation time while having high predictive power. It is expected to be widely used as a representative sample grid in various agriculture spatial modeling studies.

• Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.229-255
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• 2017

This study empirically estimates the impacts of climate change on forest composition in Korea using a fractional data regression model, and forecasts the change in forest composition in the 2040s and 2090s based on the IPCC climate change scenarios. Unlike the forest science studies that incorporate mostly only ecological variables as the determinants of forest composition, we take into account regional level socio-economic and forest management variables as well. Our estimation results found that not only environmental factors but also socio-economic and forest management related factors strongly affect the composition of Korean forest. Based on the estimation results and IPCC scenarios on climate change, we predict that the share of currently dominant coniferous forest will decline in the future under all scenarios. About 10% of total forest area is likely to be converted from coniferous forest into broadleaved forest until 2090s under the scenario RCP 8.5. It is also predicted that there will be a substantial regional variation in the effects of climate change on forest composition, and the coniferous forests in the inland regions will decline more dramatically.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.36 no.3
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• pp.475-486
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• 2020

Climate change scenarios are the basis of research to cope with climate change, and consist of large-scale spatio-temporal data. From the data point of view, one scenario has a large capacity of about 83 gigabytes or more, and the data format is semi-structured, making it difficult to utilize the data through means such as search, extraction, archiving and analysis. In this study, a tool for analyzing extreme climate events based on spatial information is developed to improve the usability of large-scale, multi-period climate change scenarios. In addition, a pilot analysis is conducted on the time and space in which the heavy rain thresholds that occurred in the past can occur in the future, by applying the developed tool to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. As a result, the days with a cumulative rainfall of more than 587.6 mm over three days would account for about 76 days in the 2080s, and localized heavy rains would occur. The developed analysis tool was designed to facilitate the entire process from the initial setting through to deriving analysis results on a single platform, and enabled the results of the analysis to be implemented in various formats without using specific commercial software: web document format (HTML), image (PNG), climate change scenario (ESR), statistics (XLS). Therefore, the utilization of this analysis tool is considered to be useful for determining future prospects for climate change or vulnerability assessment, etc., and it is expected to be used to develop an analysis tool for climate change scenarios based on climate change reports to be presented in the future.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.15 no.1
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• pp.26-39
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• 2013

Yield reduction in major cereal grains seems unavoidable with the existing cropping systems under the projected climate change in Korea. Crop models were used to predict the effects of planting date shift on grain yields of rice, winter barley and soybeans at 64 agroclimatic zones in Korea. The shift of planting date by 7, 14, and 21 days before and after the recommended planting dates were incorporated in DSSAT experiment files to simulate growth, development and grain yields of major cereal crops. These included 3 rice cultivars representing early-, medium- and late-maturity groups, 1 winter barley and 1 soybean cultivars. Partial mitigation in yield reduction was found with earlier planting in the early maturing rice cultivar and with delayed planting in the late maturing rice cultivar under the RCP8.5 projected climate change in Korea. Additional yield increase in winter barley was expected by earlier planting treatments. Soybean showed a positive effect on grain yield with earlier planting. However, the rate was much lower than the case with winter barley and delayed planting caused yield reduction.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.20 no.4
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• pp.313-320
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• 2018

In the spring of 2018, opened-flowers of fruit trees were frozen to death due to abnormal low temperature around Jeonbuk Province and southern Gyeonggi Province areas. In the 2000s, abnormal weather is observed all over the world very frequently. As a consequence, various sectors of the society suffer from economic damage and negative effects of the abnormal weather. Moreover, recent global climate change is believed to increase the incidence of extreme weathers, which are out of the normal range of the local climate. It is necessary to identify these abnormal weather phenomena accurately and analyze the effects of them on crops in order to understand the effects of them on crop yields. This study projected the trend of the low-temperature occurrence in the future by predicting the changes in future flowering dates and quantifying the temperature distribution after flowering using climate change scenarios. This study targeted areas actually producing a major portion of pear, peach, and apple in South Korea. The results of this study predicted that the flowering dates of these fruits will be approximately 20 days earlier than the current normal year in the future (2071-2100) for the study area. Moreover, it was found that the distribution of low temperature would vary by fruit type and region to some degree. The results of this study present only a portion of fruit trees cultivars grown in South Korea. It was expected that, when this approach is applied to various crops and fruit trees, it will be possible to contribute to preparing countermeasures for climate change in the agricultural sector.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.51 no.spc
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• pp.1161-1169
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• 2018

In this study, a new methodology was proposed to evaluate the flood vulnerability of river levee and to investigate the effect on the levee where the water level changes according to climate change. The stability of levee against seepage was evaluated using SEEP/W model which is two-dimensional groundwater infiltration model. In addition to the infiltration behavior, it is necessary to analyze the vulnerability of the embankment considering the environmental conditions of the river due to climate change. In this study, the levee flood vulnerability index (LFVI) was newly developed by deriving the factors necessary for the analysis of the levee vulnerability. The size of river levee was investigated by selecting the target area. The selected levees were classified into upstream part, midstream part and downstream part at the nearside of Seoul in the Han river, and the safety factor of the levee was analyzed by applying the design flood level of the levee. The safety ratio of the levee was analyzed by applying the design flood level considering the current flood level and the scenario of climate change RCP8.5. The degree of change resulting from climate change was identified for each factor that forms the levee flood vulnerability index. By using the levee flood vulnerability index value utilizing these factors comprehensively, it was finally possible to estimate the vulnerability of levee due to climate change.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.248-248
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• 2018

새만금 종합개발계획(정부, 2011)에 따른 내부개발의 완료시점은 2030년이며, 방수제 공사와 준설 등과 같이 만경강 및 동진강 유역 내 흐름을 변화시킬 수 있는 공사를 포함하고 있으므로 현재와 2030년의 하천 및 호의 수리특성은 다를 것이라 예상된다. 2030년까지 준설상황 등을 예측하여 반영하는 것은 사실상 불가능하기 때문에 새만금 종합개발계획에서 제시하고 있는 내부개발의 완료시점을 기준으로 홍수사상을 모의하였다. 새만금 호의 물리적인 변화는 수리특성의 변화로 이어질 수 있으며, 이는 상류지역으로 전파가 될 수 있으므로 호내 뿐만 아니라 만경강과 동진강 전역에 대한 홍수시의 수리특성을 검토하였다. 새만금 호와 연결된 만경강과 동진강의 설계홍수량은 대부분의 구간에서 100년 빈도이기 때문에 본 연구에서는 100년 빈도 홍수사상에 대한 분석을 기초로 홍수위 검토를 수행하였고, RCP8.5 시나리오를 적용한 100년 빈도 홍수량과 500년 빈도 홍수량에 대한 추가적인 연구를 수행하였으며, 이 결과를 토대로 취약지구 분석 및 대책 등을 제시하였다. 수치모의는 Delft3D를 이용하였으며, 새만금 유역의 동진강 지구의 실측치와 비교함으로써 모델의 적용성을 검증하였다. 서해안 조위 특성상 새만금 방조제는 조위 영향이 크므로, 이에 본 연구에서는 외조위의 특성을 고려하기 위해 새만금 유역 주변의 12개 조화상수(tidal harmonic constant)를 이용하여 조위에 대한 모의를 별도로 수행하고, 이 결과를 배수갑문의 경계조건으로 이용하였다. 상류 경계조건은 하천기본계획상에 제시된 하천은 이를 이용하였으며, 그 외의 소하천은 유역면적을 이용한 계산법을 사용하여, 선형적 면적 비유량(Specific Discharge, SD) 방법을 적용하여 본류의 유량에 부가하는 방식으로 수행하였다. 수치해석 결과, 준설 구간의 수위는 전반적으로 저하되었으며, 거리에 따른 수면의 경사를 분석한 결과 기존의 하천구역이 준설 등으로 인하여 호수의 특성으로 변화된 것으로 확인하였다. 본 연구에서 취약지구는 홍수위가 제방고의 약 80% 이상 되는 지역으로 결정하였으며, 이를 토대로 취약지구 분석을 수행한 결과 기존 100년 빈도에서 1지점, RCP 8.5 시나리오가 적용된 100년 빈도에서 88지점, 500년 빈도에서 125지점이 잠재적인 치수 위험이 있는 것으로 파악되었다. 기존의 1차원 연구결과와는 차이가 있는 부분은, 다수의 취약지구가 만곡부 또는 합류부 인근에 위치한 것이다. 향후 이러한 상대적인 치수 취약지점에 대해 정밀하고 국부적인 연구를 수행하여 정확한 홍수위 예측을 수행해야 할 것이다.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.24 no.4
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• pp.275-284
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• 2022

Changes in air temperature, CO₂ concentration and precipitation due to climate change are expected to have a significant impact on soybean productivity. This study was conducted to evaluate the climate change impact on growth and development of determinate soybean cultivar in the southern parts of Korea. The high temperature during vegetative period, which does not accompany the increase of CO₂ concentration, increased the canopy photosynthetic rate in soybean, but after flowering, the high temperature above the optimal ranges interrupts the photosynthetic metabolism. In yield and yield components, high temperature reduced both the pod and seed number and single seed weight, resulting in a reduction of total seed yield. On the other hand, the increase in CO₂ concentration dramatically increased the canopy photosynthetic rate over the whole growth period. In addition, high CO₂ concentration increased the number of pods and seeds, which had a positive effect on total seed yield. Under concurrent elevation of air temperature and CO₂ concentration, canopy photosynthesis increased significantly, but enhanced canopy photosynthesis did not lead to an increase in soybean seed yield. The increase in biomass and branch by enhanced canopy photosynthesis seems to be attributed to an increase in the total number of pods and seeds per plant, which compensates for the negative effects of high temperature on pod development. However, Single seed weight tended to decrease rapidly by high temperature, regardless of CO₂ concentration level. Elevated CO₂ concentration did not compensate for the poor distribution of assimilations from source to sink caused by high temperature. These results show that the damage of future soybean yield and quality is closely related to high temperature stress during seed filling period.