• Title/Summary/Keyword: RCP 8.5

Search Result 400, Processing Time 0.032 seconds

Probable Precipitation Proposal for Strengthening Water Infrastructure Planning Applicability of Precipitation Forecasting (예측 강수의 물 인프라 계획 적용성 강화를 위한 확률강수량 제시)

  • Park, Hyo Seon;Choi, Gye Woon;Jang, Dong Woo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2017.05a
    • /
    • pp.398-398
    • /
    • 2017
  • 확률강수량은 하천, 하수도, 재해관련 시설 계획 등 각종 물 인프라를 계획하기 위한 기초 자료로 활용되고 있다. 최근의 기후변화 양상을 고려할 때, 지역적으로 다양하게 변화되는 강수패턴은 확률강수량 산정에 있어서도 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 이 연구에서는 현재 물 인프라 계획에 사용되는 확률강수량의 적용실태를 분석하였으며, 기후변화 영향이 점차 증가할 것으로 보이는 미래의 물 관련 인프라를 건설하거나 시설 개선에 사용되는 확률강수량이 미래 예측 강수를 고려하는 경우에 어떻게 변화되는지를 연구하였다. 인천관측소 지점을 대표 분석 지점으로 선정하여 연강수량, 일최대강수량을 제시하였으며, 기존 확률강수량을 검토하였다. 또한, 인천관측소 지점의 1961~2015년의 분단위 자료를 이용하여 임의시간에 따른 1440분 최대강수량을 산정하였으며, RCP 2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 시나리오에 따른 2016~2100년 기간의 미래 예측 강수자료에 고정시간-임의시간 환산계수를 적용하여 빈도별 확률 강수량을 산정하였다. RCP 기후변화 시나리오에 의한 미래 예측 강수를 적용한 경우와 과거 관측 자료만을 이용한 확률강수량의 차이를 분석한 결과, 편의보정 여부와 관측지점 및 확률빈도에 따라 결과에 상당한 차이가 발생하였다. 향후 물인프라 계획에 있어서는 미래 예측 강수의 패턴과 지역적 특성 등을 여러 측면으로 고려한 계획을 수립하는 것이 지속가능한 물 관리에 필요한 것으로 판단된다.

  • PDF

Estimation of Regional Future Agricultural Available Groundwater Supply in Jeju Island Using Water Balance Method (물수지 분석법을 이용한 제주도 권역별 미래 농업용 지하수 공급 가능량 추정)

  • Song, Sung-Ho;Lee, Gyu-Sang;Myoung, Woo-Ho;An, Jung-Gi;Baek, Jin-Hee;Jung, Cha-Youn
    • Journal of Soil and Groundwater Environment
    • /
    • v.24 no.2
    • /
    • pp.23-37
    • /
    • 2019
  • To evaluate the available groundwater supply to the agricultural water demand in the future with the climate change scenarios for 40 sub-regions in Jeju Island, groundwater recharge and the available groundwater supply were estimated using water balance analysis method. Groundwater recharge was calculated by subtracting the actual evapotranspiration and direct runoff from the total amount of water resources and available groundwater supply was set at 43.6% from the ratio of the sustainable groundwater capacity to the groundwater recharge. According to the RCP 4.5 scenario, the available groundwater supply to the agricultural water demand is estimated to be insufficient in 2020 and 2025, especially in the western and eastern regions of the island. However, such a water shortage problem is alleviated in 2030. When applying the RCP 8.5 scenario, available groundwater supply can't meet the water demand over the entire decade.

Assessment of Water Supply of Pumped-Storage Type Reservoir according to Climate Change (기후변화에 따른 양수저류형 저수지 용수공급능력 평가)

  • Lee, Jaenam;Shin, Hyungjin;Kim, Haedo;Kang, Seokman
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2018.05a
    • /
    • pp.224-224
    • /
    • 2018
  • 농업용저수지는 전국에 약 18,000여 개소에 이르며 지역특성에 따라 농업용수를 공급하는 체계가 각각 다르다. 저수지 용수공급체계는 자체유역에서 확보된 용수를 해당 수혜면적에 공급하는 것이 대표적이지만, 유역면적이 작거나 없어 용수확보가 어려운 지역은 양수시설을 통해 간접유역의 하천수나 재이용수 등을 저수지에 저류한다. 양수저류형 저수지의 설계를 위해 다양한 양수조건을 고려한 물수지분석을 수행하고 저수지의 설계용량 및 적정 양수량을 결정하고 있다. 그러나 최근 기후변화 등으로 인해 수자원 환경의 변화로 농업용수가 부족해지고 있는 상황 속에서 양수 저류형 저수지에 대한 용수공급능력의 재평가가 필요한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 양수저류형 저수지의 용수공급능력을 재평가하였고, 물 부족을 극복하기 위한 적정 양수량을 산정하였다. 대상저수지는 ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$저수지로 선정하였고 저수지 모의운영을 위한 양수량, 관개 재이용수 비욜 등의 입력정보는 당초 설계에 적용된 값을 사용하였다. 과거 기상자료는 1980-2010년, 미래 기후정보는 2011-2100까지로 RCP 4.5와 RCP 8.5 기후변화 시나리오를 적용하였다. 과거 및 미래 기후정보를 적용하여 양수저류형 저수지의 모의운영을 수행하고 이수안전도 90%의 만족여부를 검토하였다. 또한 기후변화에 대비하여 안정적 용수공급을 위한 적정 양수량을 산정하고 이를 비교 분석하였다. 본 연구결과는 물 부족 지역의 농업용수 공급을 위한 양수저류형 저수지 운영에 있어 저수지 물관리의 기초정보로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

  • PDF

Analysis of Future Bioclimatic Zones Using Multi-climate Models (다중기후모형을 활용한 동북아시아의 미래 생물기후권역 변화분석)

  • Choi, Yuyoung;Lim, Chul-Hee;Ryu, Jieun;Jeon, Seongwoo
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
    • /
    • v.27 no.5
    • /
    • pp.489-508
    • /
    • 2018
  • As climate changes, it is necessary to predict changes in the habitat environment in order to establish more aggressive adaptation strategies. The bioclimatic classification which clusters of areas with similar habitats can provide a useful ecosystem management framework. Therefore, in this study, biological habitat environment of Northeast Asia was identified through the establishment of the bioclimatic zones, and the impac of climate change on the biological habitat was analyzed. An ISODATA clustering was used to classify Northeast Asia (NEA)into 15 bioclimatic zones, and climate change impacts were predicted by projecting the future spatial distribution of bioclimatic zones based upon an ensemble of 17 GCMs across RCP4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for 2050s, and 2070s. Results demonstrated that significant changes in bioclimatic conditions can be expected throughout the NEA by 2050s and 2070s. The overall zones moved upward, and some zones were predicted to be greatly expanded or shrunk where we suggested as regions requiring intensive management. This analysis provides the basis for understanding potential impacts of climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem. Also, this could be used more effectively to support decision making on climate change adaptation.

Projections of Future Summer Weather in Seoul and Their Impacts on Urban Agriculture (미래 서울의 여름날씨 전망과 도시농업에의 영향)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
    • /
    • v.17 no.2
    • /
    • pp.182-189
    • /
    • 2015
  • Climate departure from the past variability was projected to start in 2042 for Seoul. In order to understand the implication of climate departure in Seoul for urban agriculture, we evaluated the daily temperature for the June-September period from 2041 to 2070, which were projected by the RCP8.5 climate scenario. These data were analyzed with respect to climate extremes and their effects on growth of hot pepper (Capsicum annuum), one of the major crops in urban farming. The mean daily maximum and minimum temperatures in 2041-2070 approached to the $90^{th}$ percentile in the past 30 years (1951-1980). However, the frequency of extreme events such as heat waves and tropical nights appeared to exceed the past variability. While the departure of mean temperature might begin in or after 2040, the climate departure in the sense of extreme weather events seems already in progress. When the climate scenario data were applied to the growth and development of hot pepper, the departures of both planting date and harvest date are expected to follow those of temperature. However, the maximum duration for hot pepper cultivation, which is the number of days between the first planting and the last harvest, seems to have already deviated from the past variability.

Projection of Future Drought of Korea Based on Probabilistic Approach Using Multi-model and Multi Climate Change Scenarios (다양한 기후변화 시나리오와 기후모델에 의한 남한지역 미래가뭄의 확률론적 전망)

  • Park, Beom-Seop;Lee, Joo-Heon;Kim, Chang-Joo;Jang, Ho-Won
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.33 no.5
    • /
    • pp.1871-1885
    • /
    • 2013
  • In this study, spatio-temporal distribution of future drought in South Korea was predicted by using the meteorological data generated from GCMs on which a variety of climate changing scenarios are applied. Drought phenomena was quantitatively analyzed using SPI(Standardized Precipitation Index). In addition, potential drought hazard maps for different drought duration and return period were made for the South Koreaby drought frequency analysis after deriving SDF(Severity-Duration-Frequency) curves using the 54 weather stations throughout the country. From the potential drought hazard maps, drought is expected to be severer in Nakdong River basin and Seomjin River basin under A2 scenario. It was also predicted that drought would be severe in the Han River basin by RCP8.5 scenario. In the future, potential drought hazard area would be expanded until the Eastern part of Nakdong River basin as compared with that of past under A2 scenario condition. Research results indicated that future drought would be extensively occurred all areas of South Korea not limiting in the southern part of country.

Analysis of runoff characteristics in subwatershed under climate change (기후변화에 따른 소유역 유출특성 분석)

  • Kwak, Jihye;Hwang, Soonho;Jun, Sang Min;Choi, Soon Kun;Kang, Moon Seong
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2020.06a
    • /
    • pp.324-324
    • /
    • 2020
  • 기후변화에 따른 기상 요소별 추세 변화는 유역유출량의 변동성을 증가시켜 안정적인 수자원 확보 및 홍수 대비에 어려움을 줄 수 있다. 따라서 기후변화에 따른 유역 유출량 변화를 평가하기 위한 많은 연구가 이루어져 왔다. 기존에는 기후변화 자료의 공간적 해상도의 한계로 인해 중대유역을 중심으로 연구가 다수 이루어져 왔으나, 최근 들어, 기후변화 자료의 공간적 상세화 기법이 발달함에 따라 소유역별 유역 유출량 평가에 관한 연구가 증가하고 있다. 특히, 소유역의 경우 유역 특성에 따라 기후변화에 따른 유출량 변화 민감도가 높을 수 있으며, 유출 성분별 변화가 상이할 수 있다. 하지만 기존의 연구에서는 소유역을 대상으로 기후변화에 따른 유출 성분별, 예를 들어 직접유출량과 기저유출량을 구분하여 변화를 평가하는 연구가 부족한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 따른 소유역의 유출 성분별 특성을 분석하기 위하여, RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오별 기후모델 10개에 대하여 모의한 유출량을 직접유출량과 기저유출량으로 구분하고 결과를 비교 분석하였다. 본 연구의 대상지역은 유역면적이 112.9 ㎢이며, 토지이용이 단순하고, 농경지의 비율(약 50%)이 높은 농업 소유역을 대상으로 하였다. 유출량을 모의하기 위한 모형으로는 농업 소유역 유출량 모의 연구에 다수 사용된 바 있는 SWAT 모형을 이용하였으며, 직접유출량과 기저유출량의 분리는 Recursive Digital Filter 방법을 이용하였다. 기후변화 자료는 기후모델의 연산능력의 한계나 복잡한 자연조건의 불완전한 반영 등의 이유로 지역 기후변화 예측 과정에서 발생하는 불확실성을 지니고 있으므로 RCP 4.5, 8.5 시나리오별 각각 10개 기후모델의 결과를 이용하여 유출 특성 분석에 활용하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 향후 소유역의 미래 유량특성을 파악하기 위한 기초 자료로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 사료된다.

  • PDF

Water balance change at a transiting subtropical forest in Jeju Island

  • Kim, JiHyun;Jo, Kyungwoo;Kim, Jeongbin;Hong, Jinkyu;Jo, Sungsoo;Chun, Jung Hwa;Park, Chanwoo;Kim, Yeonjoo
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
    • /
    • 2022.05a
    • /
    • pp.99-99
    • /
    • 2022
  • Jeju island has a humid subtropical climate and this climate zone is expected to migrate northward toward the main land, Korea Peninsula, as temperature increases are accelerated. Vegetation type has been inevitably shifted along with the climatic change, having more subtropical species native in southeast Asia or even in Africa. With the forest composition shift, it becomes more important than ever to analyze the water balance of the forest wihth the ongoing as well as upcoming climate change. Here, we implemented the Ecosystem Demography Biosphere Model (ED2) by initializing the key variables using forest inventory data (diameter at breast height in 2012). Out of 10,000 parameter sets randomly generated from prior distribution distributions of each parameter (i.e., Monte-Carlo Method), we selected four behavioral parameter sets using remote-sensing data (LAI-MOD15A2H, GPP-MOD17A2H, and ET-MOD16A2, 8-days at 500-m during 2001-2005), and evaluated the performances using eddy-covariance carbon flux data (2012 Mar.-Sep. 30-min) and remote sensing data between 2006-2020. We simulated each of the four RCP scenarios (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) from four climate forcings (GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MIROC5 from ISIMIP2b). Based on those 64 simulation sets, we estimate the changes in water balance resulting from the forest composition shift, and also uncertainty in the estimates and the sensitivity of the estimates to the parameters, climate forcings, and RCP scenarios.

  • PDF

Impact of Future Chinese Emissions on Ozone Air Quality and Human Health in Northeast Asia (동북아 지역에서 중국의 미래 배출량 변화가 오존농도와 보건에 미치는 영향)

  • Kim, Hyeon-Kook;Lyu, Youngsook;Woo, Jung-Hun;Hong, Sung-Chul;Kim, Deok-Rae;Seo, Jeonghyeon;Shin, Myunghwan;Kim, Sang-Kyun
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
    • /
    • v.7 no.4
    • /
    • pp.451-463
    • /
    • 2016
  • We explore the impact of Chinese future air pollutant emissions on ozone air quality in Northeast Asia (NEA) and health in South-Korea using an assessment framework including ICAMS (The Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System) and BenMAP (The Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program). The emissions data sets from the climate change scenarios, the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (emission scenarios, EMSO), are used to simulate ozone air quality in NEA in the current (1996~2005, 2000s), the near future (2016~2025, 2020s) and the distant future (2046~2055, 2050s). Furthermore, the simulated ozone changes in the 2050s are used to analyze ozone-related premature mortality and economic cost in South-Korea. While different EMSOs are applied to the China region, fixed EMSO are used for other country regions to isolate the impacts of the Chinese emissions. Predicted ozone changes in NEA are distinctively affected by large changes in NOx emission over most of China region. Comparing the 2020s with the 2000s situation, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations in NEA is simulated under RCP 8.5 and similarly small increases are under other RCPs. In the 2050s in NEA, the largest increase in mean ozone concentrations is simulated under RCP 6.0 and leads to the occurrence of the highest premature mortalities and economic costs in South-Korea. Whereas, the largest decrease is simulated under RCP 4.5 leads to the highest avoided premature mortality numbers and economic costs. Our results suggest that continuous reduction of NOx emissions across the China region under an assertive climate change mitigation scenario like RCP 4.5 leads to improved future ozone air quality and health benefits in the NEA countries including South-Korea.

Changes in Mean Temperature and Warmth Index on the Korean Peninsula under SSP-RCP Climate Change Scenarios (SSP-RCP 기후변화 시나리오 기반 한반도의 평균 기온 및 온량지수 변화)

  • Jina Hur;Yongseok Kim;Sera Jo;Eung-Sup Kim;Mingu Kang;Kyo-Moon Shim;Seung-Gil Hong
    • Atmosphere
    • /
    • v.34 no.2
    • /
    • pp.123-138
    • /
    • 2024
  • Using 18 multi-model-based a Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) climate change scenarios, future changes in temperature and warmth index on the Korean Peninsula in the 21st century (2011~2100) were analyzed. In the analysis of the current climate (1981~2010), the ensemble averaged model results were found to reproduce the observed average values and spatial patterns of temperature and warmth index similarly well. In the future climate projections, temperature and warmth index are expected to rise in the 21st century compared to the current climate. They go further into the future and the higher carbon scenario (SSP5-8.5), the larger the increase. In the 21st century, in the low-carbon scenario (SSP1-2.6), temperature and warmth index are expected to rise by about 2.5℃ and 24.6%, respectively, compared to the present, while in the high-carbon scenario, they are expected to rise by about 6.2℃ and 63.9%, respectively. It was analyzed that reducing carbon emissions could contribute to reducing the increase in temperature and warmth index. The increase in the warmth index due to climate change can be positively analyzed to indicate that the effective heat required for plant growth on the Korean Peninsula will be stably secured. However, it is necessary to comprehensively consider negative aspects such as changes in growth conditions during the plant growth period, increase in extreme weather such as abnormally high temperatures, and decrease in plant diversity. This study can be used as basic scientific information for adapting to climate change and preparing response measures.