• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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Particulate Matter and CO2 Improvement Effects by Vegetation-based Bio-filters and the Indoor Comfort Index Analysis (식생기반 바이오필터의 미세먼지, 이산화탄소 개선효과와 실내쾌적지수 분석)

  • Kim, Tae-Han;Choi, Boo-Hun;Choi, Na-Hyun;Jang, Eun-Suk
    • Korean Journal of Environmental Agriculture
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.268-276
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    • 2018
  • BACKGROUND: In the month of January 2018, fine dust alerts and warnings were issued 36 times for $PM_{10}$ and 81 times for PM2.5. Air quality is becoming a serious issue nation-wide. Although interest in air-purifying plants is growing due to the controversy over the risk of chemical substances of regular air-purifying solutions, industrial spread of the plants has been limited due to their efficiency in air-conditioning perspective. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study aims to propose a vegetation-based bio-filter system that can assure total indoor air volume for the efficient application of air-purifying plants. In order to evaluate the quantitative performance of the system, time-series analysis was conducted on air-conditioning performance, indoor air quality, and comfort index improvement effects in a lecture room-style laboratory with 16 persons present in the room. The system provided 4.24 ACH ventilation rate and reduced indoor temperature by $1.6^{\circ}C$ and black bulb temperature by $1.0^{\circ}C$. Relative humidity increased by 24.4% and deteriorated comfort index. However, this seemed to be offset by turbulent flow created from the operation of air blowers. While $PM_{10}$ was reduced by 39.5% to $22.11{\mu}g/m^3$, $CO_2$ increased up to 1,329ppm. It is interpreted that released $CO_2$ could not be processed because light compensation point was not reached. As for the indoor comfort index, PMV was reduced by 83.6 % and PPD was reduced by 47.0% on average, indicating that indoor space in a comfort range could be created by operating vegetation-based bio-filters. CONCLUSION: The study confirmed that the vegetation-based bio-filter system is effective in lowering indoor temperature and $PM_{10}$ and has positive effects on creating comfortable indoor space in terms of PMV and PPD.

Quantitative Vertebral Bone Density Seen on Chest CT in Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Patients: Association with Mortality in the Korean Obstructive Lung Disease Cohort

  • Hye Jeon Hwang;Sang Min Lee;Joon Beom Seo;Ji-Eun Kim;Hye Young Choi;Namkug Kim;Jae Seung Lee;Sei Won Lee;Yeon-Mok Oh
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.21 no.7
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    • pp.880-890
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    • 2020
  • Objective: Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) are known to be at risk of osteoporosis. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the association between thoracic vertebral bone density measured on chest CT (DThorax) and clinical variables, including survival, in patients with COPD. Materials and Methods: A total of 322 patients with COPD were selected from the Korean Obstructive Lung Disease (KOLD) cohort. DThorax was measured by averaging the CT values of three consecutive vertebral bodies at the level of the left main coronary artery with a round region of interest as large as possible within the anterior column of each vertebral body using an in-house software. Associations between DThorax and clinical variables, including survival, pulmonary function test (PFT) results, and CT densitometry, were evaluated. Results: The median follow-up time was 7.3 years (range: 0.1-12.4 years). Fifty-six patients (17.4%) died. DThorax differed significantly between the different Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease stages. DThorax correlated positively with body mass index (BMI), some PFT results, and the six-minute walk distance, and correlated negatively with the emphysema index (EI) (all p < 0.05). In the univariate Cox analysis, older age (hazard ratio [HR], 3.617; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.119-6.173, p < 0.001), lower BMI (HR, 3.589; 95% CI, 2.122-6.071, p < 0.001), lower forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) (HR, 2.975; 95% CI, 1.682-5.262, p < 0.001), lower diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide corrected with hemoglobin (DLCO) (HR, 4.595; 95% CI, 2.665-7.924, p < 0.001), higher EI (HR, 3.722; 95% CI, 2.192-6.319, p < 0.001), presence of vertebral fractures (HR, 2.062; 95% CI, 1.154-3.683, p = 0.015), and lower DThorax (HR, 2.773; 95% CI, 1.620-4.746, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with all-cause mortality and lung-related mortality. In the multivariate Cox analysis, lower DThorax (HR, 1.957; 95% CI, 1.075-3.563, p = 0.028) along with older age, lower BMI, lower FEV1, and lower DLCO were independent predictors of all-cause mortality. Conclusion: The thoracic vertebral bone density measured on chest CT demonstrated significant associations with the patients' mortality and clinical variables of disease severity in the COPD patients included in KOLD cohort.

The Content and Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Herbal Pills (유통 환제의 유해 중금속 함량 및 위해도 평가)

  • Lee, Sung-Deuk;Lee, Young-Ki;Kim, Moo-Sang;Park, Seok-Ki;Kim, Yeon-Sun;Chae, Young-Zoo
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.375-387
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    • 2012
  • The objective of this study is investigation of contamination levels and assessment of health risk effects of heavy metals in herbal pills. 31 Items and 93 samples were obtained for this investigation from major herbal medicine producing areas, herbal markets and on-line supermarkets from Jan to Jun in 2010. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer method was conducted for the quantitative analysis of Pb, Cd and As. In addition, the mercury analyzer system was conducted for that of Hg without sample digestion. The average contents of heavy metals in samples were as follows : 0.87 mg/kg for Pb, 0.08 mg/kg for Cd, 2.87 mg/kg for As and 0.16 mg/kg for Hg, respectively. In addition, the average contents of heavy metals in different parts of plants, including cortex, fructus, herba, radix, seed, algae and others were 0.63 mg/kg, 3.94 mg/kg, 1.42 mg/kg, 1.05 mg/kg, 0.16 mg/kg, 22.31 mg/kg and 10.17 mg/kg, respectively. After the estimations of dietary exposure, the acceptable daily intake (ADI), the average daily dose (ADD), the provisional tolerable weekly intake (PTWI) and the relative hazard of heavy metals were evaluated. As the results, the relative hazards compared to PTWI in samples were below the recommended standard of JECFA as Pb 3.1%, Cd 0.9%, Hg 0.5%. Cancer risks through slope factor (SF) by Ministry of Environment Republic Korea and Environmental Protection Agency was $4.24{\times}10^{-7}$ for Pb and $3.38{\times}10^{-4}$ for As (assuming that the total arsenic content was equal to the inorganic arsenic). Based on our results, possible Pb-induced cancer risks in herbal pills according to parts used including cortex, fructus, herba, radix, seed, algae and others were $1.95{\times}10^{-7}$, $1.45{\times}10^{-6}$, $2.14{\times}10^{-7}$, $6.27{\times}10^{-7}$, $1.99{\times}10^{-8}$, $3.61{\times}10^{-7}$ and $9.64{\times}10^{-8}$, respectively. Possible As-induced cancer risks in herbal pills by parts used including cortex, fructus, herba, radix, seed, algae and others were $1.54{\times}10^{-5}$, $7.24{\times}10^{-5}$, $1.23{\times}10^{-4}$, $2.02{\times}10^{-5}$, $3.25{\times}10^{-6}$, $2.18{\times}10^{-3}$ and $5.67{\times}10^{-6}$ respectively. Taken together, these results indicate that the majority of samples except for some samples with relative high contents of heavy metals were safe.

Comparison of the Legislation Applicable to Compare the use of Diagnostic Radiation Devices (진단용 방사선발생장치 이용에 적용되는 법제의 비교)

  • Ko, Jong-Kyung;Jeon, Yeo-Ryeong;Han, Eun-Ok;Cho, Pyong-Kon;Kim, Yong-Min
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.277-286
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    • 2015
  • Diagnostic radiation devices that is used in the country has reached to 78,000 units. When used for human subjects diagnostic purposes, it is subject to Medical Service Act, when used in diagnostic purposes in animal subjects, the subject to Veterinarians Act. When used for other purposes are subject to the Nuclear Safety Act. Even the same radiation devices varies the legislation that is applied depending on the intended use and object. Diversified been p rovisions a re necessary compared to t he analysis o f l egal content in o rder t o prevent confusion of the legislation is a matter to be applied. It is a qualitative study that Nuclear Safety Act, Medical Service Act and Veterinarians Act administrative procedures for the introduction of the applied diagnostic radiation devices, safety inspection, human resources management, area management and the content related to administrative punishment. The Nuclear Safety Act sub-provisions, the introduction of diagnostic radiation generating devices, there are many complex and complete requirements administrative procedures on the concept of a permit. Inspection of safety associated with the use, would be subject to periodic inspection auditing characteristics over the entire field of radiation safety management. It must receive court regular education for the safety administrator and workers. Unlike the reference of the radiation dose rate to specify the radiation controlled area there is a measurement obligation of radiation dose rate. Unlike the reference of the radiation dose rate to specify the radiation controlled area there is a measurement obligation of radiation dose rate. Quantitative difference of administrative punishment that is imposed when legislation violation has reached up to 10 times, over the entire field, the largest burden of radiation safety management at the time of application of the Nuclear Safety Act sub provisions. And it is applied differently depending on the purpose and the imaging target using the same diagnostic radiation devices. Depending on the use mainly under the current legal system, radiation can be lacking in fairness of the contents of the legislation for safety management, there is a risk of confusion. Alternatives such as centralized and standardization of legislation by diagnostic radiation devices use is expected to be necessary.

The Effects of Global Entrepreneurship and Social Capital Within Supply Chain on the Export Performance (글로벌 기업가정신과 공급사슬 내 사회적 자본이 수출성과에 미치는 영향)

  • Yoon, Heon-Deok;Kwak, Ki-Young;Seo, Ri-Bin
    • Asia-Pacific Journal of Business Venturing and Entrepreneurship
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    • v.7 no.3
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2012
  • Under the international business circumstance, global supply chain management is considered a vital strategic challenge to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) suffering from deficient resources and capabilities to exploit overseas markets comparing with large corporations. That is because they can expand their business domains into overseas markets by establishing strategic alliances with global supply chain partners. Although a wide range of previous researches have emphasized the cooperative networks in the chain, most are ignoring the importance of developing relational characteristics such as trust and reciprocity with the partners. Besides, verifying the relational factors influencing firms' export performances, some studies proposed different and inconsistent factors. According to the social capital theory, which is the social quality and networks facilitating close cooperation of inter-individual and inter-organization, provides the integrated view to identify the relational characteristics in the aspects of network, trust and reciprocal norm. Meanwhile, a number of researchers shows that global entrepreneurship is the internal and intangible resource necessary to promote SMEs' internationalization. Upon closer examination, however, they cannot explain clearly its influencing mechanism in the inter-firm cooperative relationships. This study is to verify the effect of social capital accumulated within global supply chain on SMEs' qualitative and quantitative export performance. In addition, we shed new light on global entrepreneurship expected to be concerned with the formation of social capital and the enhancement of export performances. For this purpose, the questionnaires, developed through literature review, were collected from 192 Korean SMEs affiliated in Korean Medium Industries Association and Global Chief Executive Officer's Club focusing on their memberships' international business. As a result of multi-regression analysis, the social capital - network, trust and reciprocal norm shared with global supply chain partner - as well as global entrepreneurship - innovativeness, proactiveness and risk-taking - have positive effect on SMEs' export performances. Also global entrepreneurship affects positively social capital which has mediating effect partially in the relationship between global entrepreneurship and performances. These results means that there is a structural process - global entrepreneurship(input), social capital(output), and export performances(outcome). In other words, a firm should consistently invest in and develop the social capital with global supply chain partners in order to achieve common goals, establish strategic collaborations and obtain long-term export performances. Furthermore, it is required to foster the global entrepreneurship in an organization so as to build up the social capital. More detailed practical issues and discussion are made in the conclusion.

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Noninvasive Prenatal Diagnosis using Cell-Free Fetal DNA in Maternal Plasma: Clinical Applications

  • Yang, Young-Ho;Han, Sung-Hee;Lee, Kyoung-Ryul
    • Journal of Genetic Medicine
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-16
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    • 2011
  • Owing to the risk of fetal loss associated with prenatal diagnostic procedures (amniocentesis, chorionic villus sampling), noninvasive prenatal diagnosis (NIPD) is ultimate goal of prenatal diagnosis. The discovery of circulating cell-free fetal DNA (cffDNA) in maternal plasma in 1997 has opened up new probabilities for NIPD by Dr. Lo et al. The last decade has seen great development in NIPD. Fetal sex and fetal RhD status determination by cffDNA analysis is already in clinical use in certain countries. For routine use, this test is limited by the amount of cell-free maternal DNA in blood sample, the lack of universal fetal markers, and appropriate reference materials. To improve the accuracy of detection of fetal specific sequences in maternal plasma, internal positive controls to confirm to presence of fetal DNA should be analyzed. We have developed strategies for noninvasive determination of fetal gender, and fetal RhD genotyping using cffDNA in maternal plasma, using real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) including RASSF1A epigenetic fetal DNA marker (gender-independent) as internal positive controls, which is to be first successful study of this kind in Korea. In our study, accurate detection of fetal gender through gestational age, and fetal RhD genotyping in RhD-negative pregnant women was achieved. In this assay, we show that the assay is sensitive, easy, fast, and reliable. These developments improve the reliability of the applications of circulating fetal DNA when used in clinical practice to manage sex-linked disorders (e.g., hemophilia, Duchenne muscular dystrophy), congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH), RhD incompatibility, and the other noninvasive pregnant diagnostic tests on the coming soon. The study was the first successful case in Korea using cffDNA in maternal plasma, which has created a new avenue for clinical applications of NIPD.

Biological Toxicity Assessment of Sediment at an Ocean Dumping Site in Korea (폐기물 배출해역 퇴적물의 생물학적 독성평가 연구)

  • Seok, Hyeong Ju;Kim, Young Ryun;Kim, Tae Won;Hwang, Choul-Hee;Son, Min Ho;Choi, Ki-young;Kim, Chang-joon
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2022
  • The effect of sediments in a waste dumping area on marine organisms was evaluated using sediment toxicity tests with a benthic amphipod (Monocorophium acherusicum) and bioluminescent bacterium (Vibrio fischeri) in accordance with the Korean Standard Method for Marine Wastes (KSMMW). Nine sites in the East Sea-Byeong, East Sea-Jeong, and Yellow Sea-Byeong areas were sampled from 2016 to 2019. The test results showed that the relative average survival rate (benthic amphipods) and relative luminescence inhibition rate (luminescent bacteria) were below 30%, which were judged to be "non-toxic." However, in the t-test, a total of 12 benthic amphipod samples (6, 1, 1, and 4 in 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively) were significantly different (p<0.05) from the control samples. To identify the source of toxicity on benthic amphipods, a simple linear regression analysis was performed between the levels of eight heavy metals (Cr, As, Ni, Cd, Cu, Pb, Zn, and Hg) in sediments and the relative average survival rate. The results indicated that Cr had the highest contribution to the toxicity of benthic amphipods (p = 0.000, R2 = 0.355). In addition, Cr was detected at the highest concentration at the DB-85 station and exceeded the Marine Environment Standards every year. Although the sediments were determined as "not toxic" according to the ecotoxicity criteria of the KSMMW, the results of the statistical significance tests and toxicity identification evaluation indicated that the toxic effect was not acceptable. Therefore, revising the criteria for determining the toxic effect by deriving a reference value through quantitative risk assessment using species sensitivity distribution curves is necessary in the future.

Analysis of Foodborne Pathogens in Food and Environmental Samples from Foodservice Establishments at Schools in Gyeonggi Province (경기지역 학교 단체급식소 식품 및 환경 중 식중독균 분석)

  • Oh, Tae Young;Baek, Seung-Youb;Koo, Minseon;Lee, Jong-Kyung;Kim, Seung Min;Park, Kyung-Min;Hwang, Daekeun;Kim, Hyun Jung
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.44 no.12
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    • pp.1895-1904
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    • 2015
  • Foodborne illness associated with food service establishments is an important food safety issue in Korea. In this study, foodborne pathogens (Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli, pathogenic Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus) and hygiene indicator organisms [total viable cell counts (TVC), coliforms] were analyzed for food and environmental samples from foodservice establishments at schools in Gyeonggi province. Virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance of detected foodborne pathogens were also characterized. A total of 179 samples, including food (n=66), utensil (n=68), and environmental samples (n=45), were collected from eight food service establishments at schools in Gyeonggi province. Average contamination levels of TVC for foods (including raw materials) and environmental samples were 4.7 and 4.0 log CFU/g, respectively. Average contamination levels of coliforms were 2.7 and 4.0 log CFU/g for foods and environmental swab samples, respectively. B. cereus contamination was detected in food samples with an average of 2.1 log CFU/g. E. coli was detected only in raw materials, and S. aureus was positive in raw materials as well as environmental swab samples. Other foodborne pathogens were not detected in all samples. The entire B. cereus isolates possessed at least one of the diarrheal toxin genes (hblACD, nheABC, entFM, and cytK enterotoxin gene). However, ces gene encoding emetic toxin was not detected in B. cereus isolates. S. aureus isolates (n=16) contained at least one or more of the tested enterotoxin genes, except for tst gene. For E. coli and S. aureus, 92.7% and 37.5% of the isolates were susceptible against 16 and 19 antimicrobials, respectively. The analyzed microbial hazards could provide useful information for quantitative microbial risk assessment and food safety management system to control foodborne illness outbreaks in food service establishments.

A Study on Interactions of Competitive Promotions Between the New and Used Cars (신차와 중고차간 프로모션의 상호작용에 대한 연구)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.83-98
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    • 2012
  • In a market where new and used cars are competing with each other, we would run the risk of obtaining biased estimates of cross elasticity between them if we focus on only new cars or on only used cars. Unfortunately, most of previous studies on the automobile industry have focused on only new car models without taking into account the effect of used cars' pricing policy on new cars' market shares and vice versa, resulting in inadequate prediction of reactive pricing in response to competitors' rebate or price discount. However, there are some exceptions. Purohit (1992) and Sullivan (1990) looked into both new and used car markets at the same time to examine the effect of new car model launching on the used car prices. But their studies have some limitations in that they employed the average used car prices reported in NADA Used Car Guide instead of actual transaction prices. Some of the conflicting results may be due to this problem in the data. Park (1998) recognized this problem and used the actual prices in his study. His work is notable in that he investigated the qualitative effect of new car model launching on the pricing policy of the used car in terms of reinforcement of brand equity. The current work also used the actual price like Park (1998) but the quantitative aspect of competitive price promotion between new and used cars of the same model was explored. In this study, I develop a model that assumes that the cross elasticity between new and used cars of the same model is higher than those amongst new cars and used cars of the different model. Specifically, I apply the nested logit model that assumes the car model choice at the first stage and the choice between new and used cars at the second stage. This proposed model is compared to the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model that assumes that there is no decision hierarchy but that new and used cars of the different model are all substitutable at the first stage. The data for this study are drawn from Power Information Network (PIN), an affiliate of J.D. Power and Associates. PIN collects sales transaction data from a sample of dealerships in the major metropolitan areas in the U.S. These are retail transactions, i.e., sales or leases to final consumers, excluding fleet sales and including both new car and used car sales. Each observation in the PIN database contains the transaction date, the manufacturer, model year, make, model, trim and other car information, the transaction price, consumer rebates, the interest rate, term, amount financed (when the vehicle is financed or leased), etc. I used data for the compact cars sold during the period January 2009- June 2009. The new and used cars of the top nine selling models are included in the study: Mazda 3, Honda Civic, Chevrolet Cobalt, Toyota Corolla, Hyundai Elantra, Ford Focus, Volkswagen Jetta, Nissan Sentra, and Kia Spectra. These models in the study accounted for 87% of category unit sales. Empirical application of the nested logit model showed that the proposed model outperformed the IIA (Independence of Irrelevant Alternatives) model in both calibration and holdout samples. The other comparison model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and car model choice at the second stage turned out to be mis-specfied since the dissimilarity parameter (i.e., inclusive or categroy value parameter) was estimated to be greater than 1. Post hoc analysis based on estimated parameters was conducted employing the modified Lanczo's iterative method. This method is intuitively appealing. For example, suppose a new car offers a certain amount of rebate and gains market share at first. In response to this rebate, a used car of the same model keeps decreasing price until it regains the lost market share to maintain the status quo. The new car settle down to a lowered market share due to the used car's reaction. The method enables us to find the amount of price discount to main the status quo and equilibrium market shares of the new and used cars. In the first simulation, I used Jetta as a focal brand to see how its new and used cars set prices, rebates or APR interactively assuming that reactive cars respond to price promotion to maintain the status quo. The simulation results showed that the IIA model underestimates cross elasticities, resulting in suggesting less aggressive used car price discount in response to new cars' rebate than the proposed nested logit model. In the second simulation, I used Elantra to reconfirm the result for Jetta and came to the same conclusion. In the third simulation, I had Corolla offer $1,000 rebate to see what could be the best response for Elantra's new and used cars. Interestingly, Elantra's used car could maintain the status quo by offering lower price discount ($160) than the new car ($205). In the future research, we might want to explore the plausibility of the alternative nested logit model. For example, the NUB model that assumes choice between new and used cars at the first stage and brand choice at the second stage could be a possibility even though it was rejected in the current study because of mis-specification (A dissimilarity parameter turned out to be higher than 1). The NUB model may have been rejected due to true mis-specification or data structure transmitted from a typical car dealership. In a typical car dealership, both new and used cars of the same model are displayed. Because of this fact, the BNU model that assumes brand choice at the first stage and choice between new and used cars at the second stage may have been favored in the current study since customers first choose a dealership (brand) then choose between new and used cars given this market environment. However, suppose there are dealerships that carry both new and used cars of various models, then the NUB model might fit the data as well as the BNU model. Which model is a better description of the data is an empirical question. In addition, it would be interesting to test a probabilistic mixture model of the BNU and NUB on a new data set.

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