• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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A Study on Cause-and-Effect Hierarchy of Profit Factors for the Feasibility Evaluation of Overseas Construction Projects (해외건설공사의 타당성 평가를 위한 수익성 영향인자의 인과관계 계층구조 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Sun Seung-Min;Kim Han-Him;Han Seung-Heon
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute Of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • autumn
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    • pp.373-378
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    • 2003
  • Korea's overseas construction industry has been rather depressed by the weakened profitability as well as the sharp decrease of the market shares due to the lack of international competitiveness and the declined international market following the outbreak of Iraq war. There exist a lot of various risks in performing the overseas construction, and especially EPC projects, which entail complicated process from different parts, also require a sophisticated procurement and management skill. Subsequently, to survive in the competitive international market, we need to establish strategies to select potentially profitable projects at the initial stage of bidding process and to mitigate the high degree of risk exposures through contract negotiation and its adjustment. This research provides the profitability evaluation bases, with which overseas construction participants can forecast and analyze the risk more systematically, by eliciting profit-influencing factors from real overseas construction projects and structuring their cause-and-effect relationships. The profitability causal hierarchy structure describes the profitability factors' hierarchy in details and their interrelationships. It also enables us to find out critical factors directly related to profitability aggravation through a qualitative analysis. Ultimately, with this hierarchy structure as the base, the research will suggest how to develop the quantitative profitability forecasting model.

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Role of the MDM2 Promoter Polymorphism (-309T>G) in Acute Myeloid Leukemia Development

  • Cingeetham, Anuradha;Vuree, Sugunakar;Jiwatani, Sangeeta;Kagita, Sailaja;Dunna, Nageswara Rao;Meka, Phanni Bhushann;Gorre, Manjula;Annamaneni, Sandhya;Digumarti, Raghunadharao;Sinha, Sudha;Satti, Vishnupriya
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.2707-2712
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    • 2015
  • Background: The human homologue of the mouse double minute 2 (MDM2) gene is a negative regulator of Tp53. MDM2-309T>G a functional promoter polymorphism was found to be associated with overexpression thereby attenuation of Tp53 stress response and increased cancer susceptibility. We have planned to evaluate the possible role of MDM2-309T>G polymorphism with risk and response to chemotherapy in AML. Materials and Methods: A total of 223 de novo AML cases and 304 age and sex matched healthy controls were genotyped for the MDM2-309T>G polymorphism through the tetra-primer amplification refractory mutation system (ARMS)-PCR method. In order to assess the functional relationship of -309T>G SNP with MDM2 expression level, we quantified MDM2 mRNA in 30 primary AML blood samples through quantitative RT-PCR. Both the (-309T>G) genotypes and the MDM2 expression were correlated with disease free survival (DFS) rates among patients who have achieved complete remission (CR) after first induction chemotherapy. Results: MDM2-309T>G polymorphism was significantly associated with AML development (p<0.0001). The presence of either GG genotype or G allele at MDM2-309 confered 1.79 (95% CI: 1.12-2.86; p<0.001) and 1.46 fold (95%CI: 1.14-1.86; p= 0.003) increased AML risk. Survival analysis revealed that CR+ve cases with GG genotype had significantly increased DFS rates (16months, p=0.05) compared to CR+ve TT (11 months) and TG (9 months) genotype groups. Further, MDM2 expression was also found to be significantly elevated in GG genotype patients (p=0.0039) and among CR+ve cases (p=0.0036). Conclusions: The MDM2-309T>G polymorphism might be involved in AML development and also serve as a good prognostic indicator.

Quantitative Comparison of Univariate Kriging Algorithms for Radon Concentration Mapping (라돈 농도 분포도 작성을 위한 단변량 크리깅 기법의 정량적 비교)

  • KWAK, Geun-Ho;KIM, Yong-Jae;CHANG, Byung-Uck;PARK, No-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.71-84
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    • 2017
  • Radon, which enters the interior environment from soil, rocks, and groundwater, is a radioactive gas that poses a serious risk to humans. Indoor radon concentrations are measured to investigate the risk of radon gas exposure and reliable radon concentration mapping is then performed for further analysis. In this study, we compared the predictive performance of various univariate kriging algorithms, including ordinary kriging and three nonlinear transform-based kriging algorithms (log-normal, multi-Gaussian, and indicator kriging), for mapping radon concentrations with an asymmetric distribution. To compare and analyze the predictive performance, we carried out jackknife-based validation and analyzed the errors according to the differences in the data intervals and sampling densities. From a case study in South Korea, the overall nonlinear transform-based kriging algorithms showed better predictive performance than ordinary kriging. Among the nonlinear transform-based kriging algorithms, log-normal kriging had the best performance, followed by multi-Gaussian kriging. Ordinary kriging was the best for predicting high values within the spatial pattern. The results from this study are expected to be useful in the selection of kriging algorithms for the spatial prediction of data with an asymmetric distribution.

Application of a Peptide Nucleic Acid-Based Asymmetric Real-Time PCR Method for Rapid Detection of Vibrio cholerae (비브리오 콜레라 신속 검출을 위한 펩티드 핵산 기반 비대칭 real-time PCR 방법의 적용)

  • Kang, Mingyeong;Lee, Taek-Kyun
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.12
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    • pp.117-124
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    • 2019
  • Vibrio cholerae is a very important pathogenic bacterium that has to be monitored in seafood and ships' ballast water. Various methods have been developed to identify this bacterium, yet these methods are time-consuming and have limitations for their sensitivity to detect contamination. The purpose of the present study was to develop a robust and reliable method for identifying V. cholerae. Peptide nucleic acid (PNA) probes were developed to use for PNA-based asymmetrical real-time PCR techniques. The toxigenic Cholera enterotoxin subunit B (ctxB) gene was selected as a target for detecting V. cholerae and the gene was synthesized as a positive template for conventional and real-time PCR. Real-time PCR primers and PNA probes were designed and standard curves were produced for the quantitative analysis. The selected PNA probes reacted specifically to V. cholerae without any ambiguity, even among closely related species, and the detection limit was 0.1 cfu/100 mL. Taken together, the PNA probes and asymmetrical qPCR methods developed in this present study could contribute to the rapid, accurate monitoring of V. cholerae in marine environments, and as well as in seafood and ships' ballast waters.

Initial Risk Assessment of Benzoyl peroxide in Environment (Benzoyl peroxide의 환경에서의 초기 위해성 평가)

  • Kim Mi Kyoung;Bae Heekyung;Kim Su-Hyon;Song Sanghwan;Koo Hyunju;Park Kwangsik;Lee Moon-Soon;Jeon Sung-Hwan;Na Jin-Gyun
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.33-40
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    • 2004
  • Benzoyl peroxide is a High Production Volume Chemical, which is produced about 1,371 tons/year in Korea as of 2001 survey. The substance is mainly used as initiators in polymerization, catalysts in the plastics industry, bleaching agents for flour and medication for acne vulgaris. In this study, Quantitative Structure-Activity Relationships (QSAR) are used for getting adequate information on the physical -chemical properties of this chemical. And hydrolysis in water, acute toxicity to aquatic and terrestrial organisms for benzoyl peroxide were studied. The physical -chemical properties of benzoyl peroxide were estimated as followed; vapor pressure=0.00929 Pa, Log $K_{ow}$ = 3.43, Henry's Law constant=3.54${\times}$10$^{-6}$ atm-㎥/mole at $25^{\circ}C$, the half-life of photodegradation=3 days and bioconcentration factor (BCF)=92. Hydrolysis half-life of benzoyl peroxide in water was 5.2 hr at pH 7 at $25^{\circ}C$ and according to the structure of this substance hydrolysis product was expected to benzoic acid. Benzoyl peroxide has toxic effects on the aquatic organisms. 72 hr-Er $C_{50}$ (growth rate) for algae was 0.44 mg/1.,48 hr-E $C_{50}$ for daphnia was 0.07mg/L and the 96hr-L $C_{50}$ of acute toxicity to fish was 0.24mg/L. Acute toxicity to terrestrial organisms (earth worm) of benzoyl peroxide was low (14 day-L $C_{50}$ = > 1,000 mg/kg). Although benzoyl peroxide is high toxic to aquatic organisms, the substance if not bioaccumulated because of the rapid removal by hydrolysis (half-life=5.2 hr at pH 7 at $25^{\circ}C$) and biodegradation (83% by BOD after 21 days). The toxicity observed is assumed to be due to benzoyl peroxide rather than benzoic acid, which shows much lower toxicity to aquatic organisms. One can assume that effects occur before hydrolysis takes place. From the acute toxicity value of algae, daphnia and fish, an assessment factor of 100 was used to determine the predicted no effect concentration (PNEC). The PNEC was calculated to be 0.7$\mu\textrm{g}$/L based on the 48 hr-E $C_{50}$ daphnia (0.07 mg/L). The substance shows high acute toxicity to aquatic organisms and some information indicates wide-dispersive ore of this substance. So this substance is, a candidate for further work, even if it hydrolysis rapidly and has a low bioaccumulation potential. This could lead to local concern for the aquatic environment and therefore environmental exposure assessment is recommended.

A Study on the Effective Method to Producing Data for The ROKA Live Fire Training Range Safety (한국군 실 사격 훈련간 효율적인 안전지대 데이터 구축 방안 연구)

  • Lee, June-Sik;Choi, Bong-Wan;Oh, Hyun-Seung
    • Journal of Korean Society of Industrial and Systems Engineering
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    • v.38 no.3
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    • pp.64-77
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    • 2015
  • An effective method for produce munitions effectiveness data is to calculate weapon effectiveness indices in the US military's Joint Munitions Effectiveness Manuals (JMEM) and take advantage of the damage evaluation model (GFSM) and weapon Effectiveness Evaluation Model (Matrix Evaluator). However, a study about the Range Safety that can be applied in the live firing exercises is very insufficient in the case of ROK military. The Range Safety program is an element of the US Army Safety Program, and is the program responsible for developing policies and guidance to ensure the safe operation of live-fire ranges. The methodology of Weapon Danger Zone (WDZ) program is based on a combination of weapon modeling/simulation data and actual impact data. Also, each WDZ incorporates a probability distribution function which provides the information necessary to perform a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the relative risk of an identified profile. A study of method to establish for K-Range Safety data is to develop manuals (pamphlet) will be a standard to ensure the effective and safe fire training at the ROK military education and training and environmental conditions. For example, WDZs are generated with the WDZ tool as part of the RMTK (Range Managers Tool Kit) package. The WDZ tool is a Geographic Information System-based application that is available to operational planners and range safety manager of Army and Marine Corps in both desktop and web-based versions. K-Range Safety Program based on US data is reflected in the Korean terrain by operating environments and training doctrine etc, and the range safety data are made. Thus, verification process on modified variables data is required. K-Range Safety rather than being produced by a single program, is an package safety activities and measures through weapon danger zone tool, SRP (The Sustainable Range Program), manuals, doctrine, terrain, climate, military defence M&S, weapon system development/operational test evaluation and analysis to continuously improving range safety zone. Distribution of this K-range safety pamphlet is available to Army users in electronic media only and is intended for the standing army and army reserve. Also publication and distribution to authorized users for marine corps commands are indicated in the table of allowances for publications. Therefore, this study proposes an efficient K-Range Safety Manual producing to calculate the danger zones that can be applied to the ROK military's live fire training by introducing of US Army weapons danger zone program and Range Safety Manual

Shoulder Surfing Attack Modeling and Security Analysis on Commercial Keypad Schemes (어깨너머공격 모델링 및 보안 키패드 취약점 분석)

  • Kim, Sung-Hwan;Park, Min-Su;Kim, Seung-Joo
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.1159-1174
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    • 2014
  • As the use of smartphones and tablet PCs has exploded in recent years, there are many occasions where such devices are used for treating sensitive data such as financial transactions. Naturally, many types of attacks have evolved that target these devices. An attacker can capture a password by direct observation without using any skills in cracking. This is referred to as shoulder surfing and is one of the most effective methods. There has been only a crude definition of shoulder surfing. For example, the Common Evaluation Methodology(CEM) attack potential of Common Criteria (CC), an international standard, does not quantitatively express the strength of an authentication method against shoulder surfing. In this paper, we introduce a shoulder surfing risk calculation method supplements CC. Risk is calculated first by checking vulnerability conditions one by one and the method of the CC attack potential is applied for quantitative expression. We present a case study for security-enhanced QWERTY keyboard and numeric keypad input methods, and the commercially used mobile banking applications are analyzed for shoulder surfing risks.

A Study on the Methodology of Manufacturing Readiness Levels(MRLs) 8 of Manufacturing Readiness Assessment(MRA) (제조성숙도평가 MRL8 평가 방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Ji Hyeog;Jung, Yeong Tak;Lim, Jae Seong
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.609-619
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    • 2017
  • A Manufacturing Readiness Assessment (MRA) was adapted to prevent the probable ascending expense, poor quality, and delay from the development to production phase and assess the level of manufacturing readiness in 2012. Consequently, there are positive effects on improving the quality to identify the manufacturing risks during the production of military supplies and manage the issues in advance. On the other hand, because the appraisee is becoming accustomed to preparing for MRA checklists tailoring, it was found to intensify the MRA points more than before, which damages the goal of the MRA. This paper proposes the quantitative MRA methodology using MWV (Manufacturing Readiness Level 8 Weighted Value) to define and measure the HOM8, DOM8, ICOM8, and M8RA to reflect the history of MRA, the difficulties of MRA checklists, the intrinsic cruciallity and risk assessment of program, which can overcome the problems mentioned before. This paper shows the MWV of four weapon system programs to be carried out and an analysis of the proposed MRL 8 methodology.

A Survey on Heavy Metal Contents and Transfer Rate in Animal Medicines (동물성 생약의 중금속 함량 및 이행률 조사)

  • Lee, Sung-Deuk;Lee, Jeong-Sook;Hwang, Kwang-Ho;Kim, Hee-Soon;Yoo, In-Sil;Han, Ki-Young;Chae, Young-Zoo
    • YAKHAK HOEJI
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    • v.57 no.1
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    • pp.8-17
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    • 2013
  • The objective of this study is investigation of contamination levels and transfer rate of heavy metals and assessment of health risk effects in animal medicines. A total of sixteen items with 148 samples were obtained for this investigation from major herbal medicine producing areas and herbal markets from 2011 to 2012. Inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer method was conducted for the quantitative analysis of Pb, Cd and As. In addition, the mercury analyzer system was conducted for that of Hg without sample digestion. The average contents of heavy metals in animal medicines were as follows : 1.55 mg/kg for Pb, 0.28 mg/kg for Cd, 0.70 mg/kg for As and 0.047 mg/kg for Hg respectively. The average contents of heavy metals in decoctions were as follows : 0.03 mg/kg for Pb, 0.01 mg/kg for Cd, 0.17 mg/kg for As and 0.003 mg/kg for Hg respectively. The average transfer rates of heavy metals from animal medicines to decoctions were 1.9% for Pb, 3.6% for Cd, 24.2% for As and 6.0% for Hg respectively. Cancer risks of animal medicines and decoctions through slope factor by ministry of environment republic korea and environmental protection agency was $1.36{\times}10^{-6}$ and $2.50{\times}10^{-8}$ for Pb and $7.46{\times}10^{-5}$ and $1.98{\times}10^{-5}$ for As (assuming that the total arsenic content was equal to the inorganic arsenic) respectively. The hazard index of heavy metals in animal medicines and decoctions was below recommended hazard index as 0.52 and 0.05 respectively. Taken together, cancer risks about Pb and hazard indexes of animal medicines and decoctions indicate that the majority of samples except for some samples with relative high contents of heavy metals were safe. But cancer risks about As of animal medicines indicate that the majority of samples were not relatively safe.

GLCM Algorithm Image Analysis of Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver and Focal Fat Sparing Zone in the Ultrasonography (초음파검사에서 비알콜성 지방간과 국소지방회피영역에 대한 GLCM Algorithm 영상분석)

  • Cho, Jin-Young;Ye, Soo-Young
    • Journal of radiological science and technology
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2017
  • There is a need for aggressive diagnosis and treatment in middle-aged and high-risk individuals who are more likely to progress from nonalcoholic fatty liver to hepatitis. In this study, nonalcoholic fatty liver was divided into severe, moderate, and severe, and classified by quantitative method using computer analysis of GLCM algorithm. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of ultrasound images in the local fat avoidance region. Normal, mild, moderate, severe fatty liver, and focal fat sparing area, 80 cases, respectively. Among the parameters of the GLCM algorithm, the values of the Autocorrelation, Square of the deviation, Sum of averages and Sum of variances with high recognition rate of the liver ultrasound image were calculated. The average recognition rate of the GLCM algorithm was 97.5%. The result of local fat avoidance image analysis showed the most similar value to the normal parenchyma. Ultrasonography can be easily accessed by primary screening, but there may be differences in the accuracy of the test method or the correspondence of results depending on proficiency. GLCM algorithm was applied to quantitatively classify the degree of fatty liver. Local fat avoidance region was similar to normal parenchyma, so it could be predicted to be homogeneous liver parenchyma without fat deposition. We believe that GLCM computer image analysis will provide important information for differentiating not only fatty liver but also other lesions.