• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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A Regression Model for Forecasting the Initial Sales Ratio of Apartment Building Projects (아파트 프로젝트의 초기 분양률 예측 회귀모델)

  • Son, Seung-Hyun;Kim, Do-Yeong;Kim, Sun-Kuk
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.439-448
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    • 2019
  • There are various factors affecting the success and failure of an apartment building project. However, after the unit sale price has been determined and the sale has started, the most important factor affecting on the project is the initial sales ratio for one month after the sale. Generally, developers predict an initial sales ratio by various data such as economic situation, the trend of the housing market, and the house price near the business place. However, it is very difficult for these factors to be calculated quantitatively in connection with the initial sales ratio. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to develop a regression model for forecasting the initial sales ratio of apartment building projects. For this study, pre-sales data collection, correlation analysis between influencing factors, and regression model development are performed sequentially. The results of this study are used as basic data for predicting the initial sales ratio in the feasibility analysis of apartment building projects and are used as key data for the development of the risk management model.

Association between cigarette smoking and the prevalence of post-endodontic periapical pathology: a systematic review and meta-analysis

  • Nestor Rios-Osorio ;Hernan Dario Munoz-Alvear ;Fabio Andres Jimenez-Castellanos;Sara Quijano-Guauque ;Oscar Jimenez-Pena ;Herney Andres Garcia-Perdomo ;Javier Caviedes-Bucheli
    • Restorative Dentistry and Endodontics
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    • v.47 no.3
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    • pp.27.1-27.14
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    • 2022
  • Objectives: This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to assess the association of cigarette smoking with the prevalence of post-endodontic apical periodontitis in humans. Materials and Methods: We searched through PubMed/Medline, Web of Science, and Scopus from inception to December 2020. Risk of bias was performed by using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale for cross-sectional, cohort, and case-control studies. We performed the statistical analysis in Review Manager 5.3 (RevMan 5.3). Results: 6 studies met the inclusion criteria for qualitative and quantitative synthesis. Statistical analysis of these studies suggests that there were no differences in the prevalence of post endodontic apical periodontitis (AP) when comparing non-smokers vs smoker subjects regarding patients (odds ratio [OR], 0.68; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.31-1.49; I2 = 58%) and teeth (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 0.99-2.93; I2 = 72%). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that there was no association between cigarette smoking and post-endodontic apical periodontitis, as we did not find statistical differences in the prevalence of post-endodontic AP when comparing non-smokers vs smoker subjects. Therefore, smoking should not be considered a risk factor associated with endodontic failure.

A Study on the Information Poverty of North Korean Refugees in South Korea: Based on Chatman's Information Poverty (북한이탈주민의 정보빈곤에 관한 연구: Chatman의 정보빈곤이론을 기반으로)

  • Min, Soo Jin;Yi, Yong Jeong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for information Management
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    • v.39 no.3
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    • pp.241-261
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    • 2022
  • The present study aims to investigate the effects of information poverty on North Korean refugees' social adaptation to South Korea based on Chatman's Theory of Information Poverty (1996). Based on the Theory of Information Poverty, information poverty consists of four variables: Secrecy, Deception, Risk-taking, and information acceptance in response to situational relevance. And based on the previous studies, adaptation to South Korean life is divided into social adaptation and psychological adaptation. From August 4 to August 30, 2021, after approval by the IRB through the North Korean refugee support organization , surveys were conducted with North Korean refugees who had lived in South Korea for at least one year and were aged 19 or older. The 100 collected valid data were analyzed using frequency analysis, reliability analysis, correlation analysis, and multiple linear regression analysis. Findings of the study indicated that information poverty had significant effects on North Korean refugees' social and psychological adaptation. In particular, the "deception" variable had negative effects on social and psychological adaptation. The study has theoretical implications that it explains North Korean refugees' adaptation to South Korea based on Theory of Information Poverty by defining them as information poor. Above all, it attempts a quantitative approach through operationalization of key concepts unlike previous studies that were conducted with qualitative approaches.

Quantitative Analysis of Oral Pathogenic Bacteria according to Smoking Using Real-Time PCR

  • Jeon, Eun-Suk;Heo, Hyo-Jin;Ko, Hyo-Jin
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.60-68
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    • 2018
  • This study investigates the relationship between smoking and periodontal disease through quantitative analysis of intra-buccal oral pathogenic bacteria detected in smokers and aims to yield objective baseline data for applications in anti-smoking and dental health education programs. From April to May 2016, participants in an oral health management program within an intensive dental hygiene training course at Choonhae College of Health Sciences received an explanation of the study purposes and methods, after which male smokers aged 18~30 years agreed to participate voluntarily. Real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of oral pathogenic bacteria was performed after collecting gingival sulcus fluid samples from 67 smokers. The intra-buccal oral pathogenic bacteria distributions were analyzed based on the subjects' general characteristics, smoking behaviors, and oral care behaviors. The distribution results show that pathogens in the anterior teeth are affected (in this order) by age, toothbrush size, and smoking status; older people had fewer pathogens, those who used larger toothbrushes had more pathogens, and smokers had more pathogens, compared to non-smokers ($_{adj}R^2=19.1$). In the posterior teeth, pathogens were influenced (in this order) by smoking status, smoking duration, and the number of tooth brushings per day; smokers had more pathogens than non-smokers, and those who brushed their teeth more often had fewer pathogens ($_{adj}R^2=25.1$). The overall pathogen distribution was affected only by smoking status: smokers generally had more pathogens, compared to non-smokers. Therefore, it is necessary to provide information about the risk of periodontal disease due to smoking during anti-smoking or dental health education sessions; particularly, the use of smaller toothbrushes for anterior teeth and the need for smokers in their early twenties to quit smoking for dental health should be highly emphasized.

Post-earthquake fire performance-based behavior of reinforced concrete structures

  • Behnama, Behrouz;Ronagh, Hamid R.
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.5 no.4
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    • pp.379-394
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    • 2013
  • Post-earthquake fire (PEF) can lead to a rapid collapse of buildings damaged partially as a result of prior earthquake. Almost all standards and codes for the design of structures against earthquake ignore the risk of PEF, and thus buildings designed using those codes could be too weak when subjected to a fire after an earthquake. An investigation based on sequential analysis inspired by FEMA356 is performed here on the Immediate Occupancy, Life Safety and Collapse Prevention performance levels of structures, designed to the ACI 318-08 code, after they are subjected to an earthquake level with PGA of 0.35g. This investigation is followed by a fire analysis of the damaged structures, examining the time taken for the damaged structures to collapse. As a point of reference, a fire analysis is also performed for undamaged structures and before the occurrence of earthquake. The results indicate that the vulnerability of structures increases dramatically when a previously damaged structure is exposed to PEF. The results also show that the damaging effects of post-earthquake fire are exacerbated when initiated from the second and third floor. Whilst the investigation is made for a certain class of structures (conventional buildings, intermediate reinforced structure, 3 stories), the results confirm the need for the incorporation of post-earthquake fire into the process of analysis and design, and provides some quantitative measures on the level of associated effects.

Assessment of quantitative structure-activity relationship of toxicity prediction models for Korean chemical substance control legislation

  • Kim, Kwang-Yon;Shin, Seong Eun;No, Kyoung Tai
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.30 no.sup
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    • pp.7.1-7.10
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    • 2015
  • Objectives For successful adoption of legislation controlling registration and assessment of chemical substances, it is important to obtain sufficient toxicological experimental evidence and other related information. It is also essential to obtain a sufficient number of predicted risk and toxicity results. Particularly, methods used in predicting toxicities of chemical substances during acquisition of required data, ultimately become an economic method for future dealings with new substances. Although the need for such methods is gradually increasing, the-required information about reliability and applicability range has not been systematically provided. Methods There are various representative environmental and human toxicity models based on quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR). Here, we secured the 10 representative QSAR-based prediction models and its information that can make predictions about substances that are expected to be regulated. We used models that predict and confirm usability of the information expected to be collected and submitted according to the legislation. After collecting and evaluating each predictive model and relevant data, we prepared methods quantifying the scientific validity and reliability, which are essential conditions for using predictive models. Results We calculated predicted values for the models. Furthermore, we deduced and compared adequacies of the models using the Alternative non-testing method assessed for Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals Substances scoring system, and deduced the applicability domains for each model. Additionally, we calculated and compared inclusion rates of substances expected to be regulated, to confirm the applicability. Conclusions We evaluated and compared the data, adequacy, and applicability of our selected QSAR-based toxicity prediction models, and included them in a database. Based on this data, we aimed to construct a system that can be used with predicted toxicity results. Furthermore, by presenting the suitability of individual predicted results, we aimed to provide a foundation that could be used in actual assessments and regulations.

Estimation of Road-Network Performance and Resilience According to the Strength of a Disaster (재난 강도에 따른 도로 네트워크의 성능 및 회복력 산정 방안)

  • Jung, Hoyong;Choi, Seunghyun;Do, Myungsik
    • International Journal of Highway Engineering
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    • v.20 no.1
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    • pp.35-45
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    • 2018
  • PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

A comparative study of risk according to smoke control flow rate and methods in case of train fire at subway platform (지하철 승강장에서 열차 화재 시 제연풍량 및 방식에 따른 위험도 비교 연구)

  • Ryu, Ji-Oh;Lee, Hu-Yeong
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.327-339
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    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study is to present the effective smoke control flow rate and mode for securing safety through quantitative risk assessment according to the smoke control flow rate and mode (supply or exhaust) of the platform when a train fire occurs at the subway platform. To this end, a fire outbreak scenario was created using a side platform with a central staircase as a model and fire analysis was performed for each scenario to compare and analyze fire propagation characteristics and ASET, evacuation analysis was performed to predict the number of deaths. In addition, a fire accident rate (F)/number of deaths (N) diagram (F/N diagram) was prepared for each scenario to compare and evaluate the risk according to the smoke control flow rate and mode. In the ASET analysis of harmful factors, carbon monoxide, temperature, and visible distance determined by performance-oriented design methods and standards for firefighting facilities, the effect of visible distance is the largest, In the case where the delay in entering the platform of the fire train was not taken into account, the ASET was analyzed to be about 800 seconds when the air flow rate was 4 × 833 m3/min. The estimated number of deaths varies greatly depending on the location of the vehicle of fire train, In the case of a fire occurring in a vehicle adjacent to the stairs, it is shown that the increase is up to three times that of the vehicle in the lead. In addition, when the smoke control flow rate increases, the number of fatalities decreases, and the reduction rate of the air supply method rather than the exhaust method increases. When the supply flow rate is 4 × 833 m3/min, the expected number of deaths is reduced to 13% compared to the case where ventilation is not performed. As a result of the risk assessment, it is found that the current social risk assessment criteria are satisfied when smoke control is performed, and the number of deaths is the flow rate 4 × 833 m3/min when smoke control is performed at 29.9 people in 10,000 year, It was analyzed that it decreased to 4.36 people.

Vegetable Oil Intake and Breast Cancer Risk: a Meta-analysis

  • Xin, Yue;Li, Xiao-Yu;Sun, Shi-Ran;Wang, Li-Xia;Huang, Tao
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.12
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    • pp.5125-5135
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    • 2015
  • Background: Total fat intake may be associated with increased risk of breast cancer, and fish oil has been suggested as a protection factor to breast cancer. But the effect of vegetable oils is inconclusive. We aimed to investigate the association with high vegetable oils consumption and breast cancer risk, and evaluated their dose-response relationship. Design: We systematically searched the MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane databases, and CNKI updated to December 2014, and identified all observational studies providing quantitative estimates between breast cancer risk and different vegetable oils consumption. Fixed or random effect models were used to estimate summary odds ratios for the highest vs. lowest intake, and dose-response relationship was assessed by restricted cubic spline model and generalized least-squares trend (GLST) model. Results: Five prospective cohort studies and 11 retrospective case-control studies, involving 11,161 breast cancer events from more than 150,000 females, met the inclusion criteria. Compared with the lowest vegetable oils consumption, higher intake didn't increased the risk of breast cancer with pooled OR of 0.88 (95% CIs:0.77-1.01), and the result from dose-response analyses didn't show a significant positive or negative trend on the breast cancer risk for each 10g vegetable oil/day increment (OR=0.98, 95% CIs: 0.95-1.01). In the subgroup analyses, the oils might impact on females with different strata of BMI. Higher olive oil intake showed a protective effect against breast cancer with OR of 0.74 (95% CIs: 0.60-0.92), which was not significant among the three cohort studies. Conclusions: This meta-analyses suggested that higher intake of vegetable oils is not associated with the higher risk of breast cancer. Olive oil might be a protective factor for the cancer occurrence among case-control studies and from the whole. Recall bias and imbalance in study location and vegetable oils subtypes shouldn't be ignored. More prospective cohort studies are required to confirm the interaction of the impact of vegetable oils on different population and various cancer characteristic, and further investigate the relationship between different subtype oils and breast cancer.

Applicability of QSAR Models for Acute Aquatic Toxicity under the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals in the Republic of Korea (화평법에 따른 급성 수생독성 예측을 위한 QSAR 모델의 활용 가능성 연구)

  • Kang, Dongjin;Jang, Seok-Won;Lee, Si-Won;Lee, Jae-Hyun;Lee, Sang Hee;Kim, Pilje;Chung, Hyen-Mi;Seong, Chang-Ho
    • Journal of Environmental Health Sciences
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    • v.48 no.3
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    • pp.159-166
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    • 2022
  • Background: A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) model was adopted in the Registration, Evaluation, Authorization, and Restriction of Chemicals (REACH, EU) regulations as well as the Act on Registration, Evaluation, etc. of Chemicals (AREC, Republic of Korea). It has been previously used in the registration of chemicals. Objectives: In this study, we investigated the correlation between the predicted data provided by three prediction programs using a QSAR model and actual experimental results (acute fish, daphnia magna toxicity). Through this approach, we aimed to effectively conjecture on the performance and determine the most applicable programs when designating toxic substances through the AREC. Methods: Chemicals that had been registered and evaluated in the Toxic Chemicals Control Act (TCCA, Republic of Korea) were selected for this study. Two prediction programs developed and operated by the U.S. EPA - the Ecological Structure-Activity Relationship (ECOSAR) and Toxicity Estimation Software Tool (T.E.S.T.) models - were utilized along with the TOPKAT (Toxicity Prediction by Komputer Assisted Technology) commercial program. The applicability of these three programs was evaluated according to three parameters: accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity. Results: The prediction analysis on fish and daphnia magna in the three programs showed that the TOPKAT program had better sensitivity than the others. Conclusions: Although the predictive performance of the TOPKAT program when using a single predictive program was found to perform well in toxic substance designation, using a single program involves many restrictions. It is necessary to validate the reliability of predictions by utilizing multiple methods when applying the prediction program to the regulation of chemicals.