• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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A Study on Financial Ratio and Prediction of Financial Distress in Financial Markets

  • Lee, Bo-Hyung;Lee, Sang-Ho
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.16 no.11
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study investigates the financial ratio of savings banks and the effect of the ratio having influence upon bankruptcy by quantitative empirical analysis of forecast model to give material of better management and objective evidence of management strategy and way of advancement and risk control. Research design, data, and methodology - The author added two growth indexes, three fluidity indexes, five profitability indexes, and four activity indexes CAMEL rating to not only the balance sheets but also the income statement of thirty savings banks that suspended business from 2011 to 2015 and collected fourteen financial ratio indexes. IBMSPSS VER. 21.0 was used. Results - Variables having influence upon bankruptcy forecast models included total asset increase ratio and operating income increase ratio of growth index and sales to account receivable ratio, and tangible equity ratio and liquidity ratio of liquidity ratio. The study selected total asset operating ratio, and earning and expenditure ratio from profitability index, and receivable turnover ratio of activity index. Conclusions - Financial supervising system should be improved and financial consumers should be protected to develop saving bank and to control risk, and information on financial companies should be strengthened.

Calibration System Suitability Evaluation and Test Limits Determination Method through Factor Analysis of Uncertainty (불확도 요인 분석을 통한 교정 시스템 적합성 평가 및 시험기준 결정 방안)

  • Kim, Hong-Tark;Kim, Boo-Il
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1139-1144
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    • 2019
  • A calibration system for diagnosing and confirming the performance of precision measuring instruments minimizes the risk of misjudgment of calibration resulted by complying with international standard requirements in order to ensure the reliability of calibration results. This paper uses a proposed calibration system suitability assessment and a guard-band technique through an analysis of uncertainty factors when it is impossible to acquire and operate high-performance equipment at a calibration laboratory, and proposes an optimized test limit output model substituting performance standards. The proposed method provides an optimized test standard to meet the quantitative evaluation criteria of the calibration system and the probability of false acceptance risk required by international standards.

A Study on the Application of Operational Experience in the Stage of Aircraft System Design and Safety Assessment (항공기 시스템 설계와 안전성평가에 운영경험 반영 사례 연구)

  • Koo, Min-Sung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.34-39
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    • 2014
  • Airworthiness authorities specify the technical standards of airworthiness that propose minimum requirement of the commercial transport category and apply the rules in the certification process to ensure the safety of the aircraft. The Federal Aviation Administration and other national airworthiness authorities define the fatal accident risk levels for the safety assessment of the aircraft system and establish standard procedures to apply both qualitative and quantitative analysis techniques. However, an accident or incident may occur by the combination of various factors, although the aircraft is designed in accordance with the strict standards and approval by the Airworthiness Authorities. There are some key factors, such as human error, unpredictable complex system failures, degradation of the components reliability, improper maintenance task and intervals. Risk can be reduced by reflecting aircraft operational experience with similar types of aircraft in the process of aircraft development and safety assessment. Result of the root cause analysis for the Airbus A300-600 incident in which the aircraft engine reverser was deployed in the air have been introduced to reflect the design of system and related components. Also, this paper suggests to create a big-database in order to provide a feed-back to the FAR Part 25 transport category design and safety assessment of the operational experience.

Factors Influencing Actual Usage of Mobile Shopping Applications: Generation Y in Thailand

  • RATTANABURI, Konrawan;VONGURAI, Rawin
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.901-913
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    • 2021
  • This study examines the factors that influence the actual usage of mobile shopping applications among Generation Y (Gen Y) users in Thailand, determined by behavioral intention, compatibility, perceived cost, perceived ease-of-use, perceived usefulness, perceived risk, and personal innovativeness. The researcher carried out the analysis based on a quantitative approach and used a non-probability sampling as the convenience sampling tool. A total of 502 Gen Y respondents who experienced using the top-four ranking mobile shopping applications in Thailand were invited to participate in the study. The Structural Equation Model (SEM) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were used to analyze the model fit, reliability, and validity of the variables. The primary result revealed that perceived usefulness has the strongest positive significant effect on behavioral intention, followed by personal innovativeness and compatibility. Conversely, the perceived cost has a significant negative influence on behavioral intention. Besides, perceived ease-of-use has a significant positive effect on perceived usefulness. The direct relationship between perceived usefulness and behavioral intention is, however, insignificant. Similarly, the result showed no effect of perceived risk towards behavioral intention. Finally, the result also revealed that behavioral intention determined the actual usage of mobile shopping applications of Gen Y users in Thailand.

Assessing the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in 119 EMT: a focus on patient-carrying tasks (119구급대원의 업무 관련성 근골격계 질환 위험성 평가 : 환자 운반 작업을 중심으로)

  • Jeong-Won Son
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) in 119 EMT during patient-carrying tasks using a long backboard (LBB) and a variable stretcher. Methods: Manikins were used as patients, and 45 new 119 EMT from K Fire Academy were filmed performing patient-carrying tasks on stairs. The tasks were analyzed using Ovako working posture analysis system (OWAS) and Rapid entire body assessment (REBA). Results: In using LBB, the OWAS score was Mode 3(Mean 2.37, Maximum 3), requiring as soon as possible corrective action, the REBA score was Mode 11(Mean 9.16, Maximum 11), requiring immediate improvement. In using variable stretcher, the OWAS score was Mode 1(Mean 2.33, Maximum 3), non-necessity for corrective action, the REBA score was Mode 9(Mean 8.0, Maximum 11), requiring as soon as possible. Conclusion: In conclusion, improvement was needed in one task (carrying a patient using a LBB) in the OWAS and in two tasks (carrying a patient using a LBB, carrying a patient using a variable stretcher) in the REBA. Thereby, required attention and management of WMSDs during training. In addition, it is essential to carry out objective and quantitative assessments through ergonomic analysis by occupational health professionals when designing future training programs to prevent WMSDs.

Development of Emergency Response Plan System Using Quantitative Risk Assessment in Chemical Plants (화학공장에서의 정량적 위험성 평가를 이용한 비상 대응 계획 시스템 개발)

  • 임차순;서재민;엄성인;백종배;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.69-74
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    • 2001
  • In this study, we analyzed the accident scenarios of chemical plants through the analysis of lots of chemical accidents and using experts knowledge, and looked into the method of prevention and response. Moreover, we developed a systemic and actual Emergency Response Plan Software(ERPS) that could prevent, prepare and respond totally for the chemical industry facilities using the data from the accident effect estimation from the local society and the geographic information of a chemical plant. The ERPS consists of the information for the plant and process, the consequence analysis and the ERPTA(Emergency Response Plan Tree Analysis). In conclusion, the program developed in this study could help effectively all the chemical industry facilities to prevent and respond to possible accidents.

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Modeling the Aviation Safety Risk Management (항공안전 위기관리 모형 구축에 관한 연구)

  • Hong, Seok-Jin;Kim, Yeon-Myeong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.24 no.1 s.87
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    • pp.19-28
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    • 2006
  • To develop a crisis management for aviation safety, this study has defined crisis management includes risk management which is eliminates or lowers risks prior to accidents and emergency response after the accidents. This study takes a look at different kinds of crisis managements, risk managements and statistical methods of other nations and fields in order to develop a risk management model. Through surveys which have 102 risk factors that include air traffic control, maintenance and airport sectors, the weight of each risk factor was calculated and the probability was divided to develop a model for risk management. The risk management model of this study is conducted using four steps (risk management plan, risk factor identification, weight and probability analysis, decision making) and 4 standards of weight along with 5 standards of probability This study takes a look at Predictions through a quantitative method using a risk index for the risk management model An effective risk management model should have a wide and continuous collection of data and adopt various methods using this model. The crisis management could not be very effective only using a pre-active risk management. So it should also be conducted by using a pro-active response system to protect additional damage and to prevent accidents of the same nature. From the results, the most important points were the establishment of command and control accountabilities, and cooperation of related organizations.

A Meta-analysis on the Risk Factors of Cerebrovascular Disorders in Koreans (한국인 뇌혈관질환의 위험요인에 관한 메타분석)

  • Park, Jong-Ku;Kang, Myung-Guen;Kim, Chun-Bae;Kim, Ki-Soon;Jee, Sun-Ha
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.31 no.1 s.60
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    • pp.27-48
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    • 1998
  • This study was conducted to integrate the results of studies which evaluated or identified the risk factors of CVD(cerebrovascular disorders) for Koreans. We retrieved the literature published in Korean by manual search and the English literature by Medline database to identify studies on the relationship between reported risk factors and CVD conducted for the Korean from 1980 to August, 1997. Hypertension and total serum cholesterol were selected as subjects of quantitative meta-analysis on risk factors of CVD in Koreans. The overall effect sizes of the risk of CVD due to hypertension and total serum cholesterol were calculated by common odds ratio(OR) and average standardized mean difference, retrospectively. Before the integration of each effect sizes into common effect sizes, the heterogeneity tests were conducted. Also, sensitivity tests were conducted for the estimated common effect sizes. Regarding hypertension and CVD, a total of 9 epidemiologic studies were identified with a total of 2,271 cases of CVD. The overall OR of hypertension associated CVD was 4.10(95% confidence interval[CI] 3.56 to 4.71). The OR of hypertension associated with hemorrhagic CVD and ischemic CVD were 6.56(95% CI : 4.92 to 8.80) and 3.28 (95% CI : 2.77 to 3.90), retrospectively. The OR of hypertension in relation to hemorrhagic CVD was significantly higher than that of hypertension in relation to overall CVD or ischemic CVD. Regarding total serum cholesterol and ischemic CVD, total 9 epidemiologic studies were identified with a total of 843 cases of ischemic CVD. Average mean difference as an effect size was 0.76, which was judged an important value according to Cohen's criteria. Our data suggested that hypertension was an important risk factor of overall CVD and its subtypes, and that the total serum cholesterol was associated with ischemic CVD in Koreans. For the lack of reliable prospective studies, however, we concluded that further research designed longitudinally would be required in this area.

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Study on the Establishment of a Safety Allowance Level of Disastrous and Hazardous Facilities in Large Cities (대도시 위해.위험시설에 대한 안전도 수용기준 정립에 관한 연구)

  • 고재선;윤명오
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.84-92
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    • 2001
  • In today's world, rise in the establishment of social infrastructure resulting from population saturation in large cities has led to more extensive and frequent use of chemical materials on facilities. A result, unexpected and serious accidents, hazards, contingencies and disasters are more prevalent than ever. Such phenomenon calls for more devoted and concerted efforts towards finding ways to reduce the safety hazards that are seen to take place more often than before with the increase in the number of facilities that are prone to bring disaster and hazard coupled with the conventional safety problems that continue to exist even today. In developed countries, such challenge is addressed by various appropriate countermeasures drawn up by local professional committees on industrial facilities, whose members conduct offsite and onsite evaluation un the potential industrial disasters and its seriousness and provide their advice thereof. Against this backdrop, this study aims at identifying a comprehensive safety allowance level (safety acceptable level) when imposing limitation on the development of conventional or new facilities, for the fur pose of establishing a safety allowance level of disastrous and dangerous facilities in Korea. This is done by assessing and applying the level of danger each individual is exposed to in a randomly selected region (disastrous and dangerous areas in Seoul) based on probability of quantitative hazards, as well as simulation and calculation methods which include: i) social disaster evaluation method applying Quantified Risk Assessment of Health & Safety Executive of UK and Matrix of Risk of Evaluated Sources of Hazard; ii) Fault Tree or Event Tree Analysis and etc.

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Cost-Benefit Analysis for Determination of the Time to Implement In-line Inspection(ILI) on High Pressure Urban Gas Pipelines (도시가스 고압배관의 내부검사(ILI) 이행시기 결정을 위한 비용-편익 분석)

  • Ryou, Young-Don;Kim, Young-Seob;Lee, Su-Kyung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.15-21
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    • 2011
  • Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) has been performed in order to decide whether the ILI (in-line inspection) suggested as risk mitigation measure (RMM) from quantitative risk assessment is reasonably practicable. As a result of CBA, we could find out the reasonable intervals of implementation of ILI. In order to assess the benefit, value of preventing a fatality (VPF), which measures value of human life, has been used. The adequate VPF figure of high pressure urban gas pipelines for CBA used in this paper is two billion won. As a result of 2 case studies, we found that the most reasonable intervals of ILI suggested as RMM were 13 years or 15 years.