• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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A Study on the Processing Method of Reliability Database using 2-Bayes Theory (2-Bayes 이론을 이용한 데이터 처리방법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, M.S.;Rhie, K.W.;Kim, T.H.;Yoon, I.K.;Oh, Y.D.;Seo, D.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.144-149
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    • 2009
  • The safety assessment for facility industry is now being periodically performed in Korea. For the purpose of scientific safety management, QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is also being performed, and reliability data of the facilities is essential to perform the assessment. The necessary reliability data for QRA have been generally announced the values in other process industries, which results in the drop of risk reliability. The most appropriate method is to perform a direct reliability analysis towards the facilities undergoing safety assessment. In this study, the distinction between homogeneous sample estimation and multi-sample estimation of reliability data clarify using 2-Bayes theory.

An Application of Probabilistic Environmental Risk Assessment for An Incineration Facility (소각설비에 대한 확률론적 환경위험성 평가 적용)

  • Kim, Young Jae;Jang, E.J.;Ahn, K.S.
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.1-8
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    • 2004
  • A wide spectrum of risk assessments including qualitative and quantitative approaches and the analyses of its consequence were performed for an environmentally sensitive object such as incineration facility. To find out the major risk concerns, HAZOP(Hazard and Operability) were performed. Then, the frequency of hazardous gas release scenarios was calculated. Finally consequence analyses were performed for the gas release scenarios. On the basis of analyses through evaluation, a more innovative way for making a better control system or the enhancement of operation procedure was given. The results from these analyses would act as a substantial benefits for the incineration facility operator, and giving some measured information for the neighbors and the people involved.

Quantitative Assessment of the Diagnostic Role of CDH13 Promoter Methylation in Lung Cancer

  • Zhong, Yun-Hua;Peng, Hao;Cheng, Hong-Zhong;Wang, Ping
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1139-1143
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    • 2015
  • In order to explore the association between cadherin 13 (CDH13) gene promoter methylation and lung carcinoma (LC) risk, we carried out a meta-analysis with searching of PubMed, Web of Science. Ultimately, 17 articles were identified and analysised by STATA 12.0 software. Overall, we found a significant relationship between CDH13 promoter methylation and LC risk (odds ratio=6.98, 95% confidence interval: 4.21-11.56, p<0.001). Subgroup analyses further revealed that LC risk was increased for individuals carrying the methylated CDH13 compared with those with unmethylated CDH13. Hence, our study identified a strong association between CDH13 gene promoter methylation and LC and highlighted a promising potential for CDH13 methylation in LC risk prediction.

- Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the External Corrosion of Stainless Steel through the Quantitative Risk Based Inspection Using API-581 - (API-581에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 스테인리스강의 외부부식에 의한 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee Hern Chang;Kim Hwan Joo;Kim Tae Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.6 no.3
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    • pp.99-107
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    • 2004
  • Likelihood of failure (LOF) for the external corrosion of stainless steel, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the inspection effectiveness and the used year increased, and that the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, In this condition, the LOF for the external corrosion of stainless steel had lower than that for the carbon and low alloy steels

- Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the External Corrosion of Carbon and Low Alloy Steels through the Quantitative Risk Based Inspection using API-581 - (API-581에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 탄소강 및 저합금강의 외부부식에 치한 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee Hern Chang;Kim Hwan Joo;Jang Seo Il;Kim Tae Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.6 no.4
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    • pp.239-248
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    • 2004
  • Likelihood of failure for the external corrosion of carbon and low alloy steels, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed quantitatively through the risk based inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that the technical module subfactor (TMSF) decreased as the inspection number increased and it increased as the Inspection effectiveness and the used year increased. In this condition, the TMSF showed high value for the case of the marine/cooling tower drift area as a corrosion driver, poor quality of coating, no insulation, and low insulation condition.

Analysis of Likelihood of Failure for the Stress Corrosion Cracking by Caustic Cracking through the Quantitative Risk Based-Inspection using API-581 BRD (API-581 절차에 의한 정량적 위험기반검사에서 부식성 균열에 의한 응력부식의 사고발생 가능성 해석)

  • Lee, Hern-Chang;Choi, Sung-Kyu;Cho, Ji-Hoon;Ham, Byung-Ho;Kim, Tae-Ok
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.65-76
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    • 2007
  • The likelihood of failure for the stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of caustic cracking, which affect to a risk of facilities, was analyzed through the risk based-inspection using API-581 BRD. We found that SCC of the caustic cracking was occurred above 5 % NaOH concentration, and the technical module subfactor (TMSF) was maximized for above 50 % concentration. The heat traced and monitoring were not sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. But the steam out was more of less affect minimum value of the TMSF. Also, the inspection number, the inspection effectiveness, and the year since inspection were very sensitive to the TMSF with NaOH concentration and temperature. Therefore, the plan of next inspection will be established with compositively considering those at once.

Development of an earthquake-induced landslide risk assessment approach for nuclear power plants

  • Kwag, Shinyoung;Hahm, Daegi
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.50 no.8
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    • pp.1372-1386
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    • 2018
  • Despite recent advances in multi-hazard analysis, the complexity and inherent nature of such problems make quantification of the landslide effect in a probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) of NPPs challenging. Therefore, in this paper, a practical approach was presented for performing an earthquake-induced landslide PSA for NPPs subject to seismic hazard. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach, it was applied to Korean typical NPP in Korea as a numerical example. The assessment result revealed the quantitative probabilistic effects of peripheral slope failure and subsequent run-out effect on the risk of core damage frequency (CDF) of a NPP during the earthquake event. Parametric studies were conducted to demonstrate how parameters for slope, and physical relation between the slope and NPP, changed the CDF risk of the NPP. Finally, based on these results, the effective strategies were suggested to mitigate the CDF risk to the NPP resulting from the vulnerabilities inherent in adjacent slopes. The proposed approach can be expected to provide an effective framework for performing the earthquake-induced landslide PSA and decision support to increase NPP safety.

Multi-Attribute Threat Index for Information Security : Simulation and AHP Approach (정보보호를 위한 다속성 위협지수 : 시뮬레이션과 AHP 접근방법)

  • Lee, Kang-Soo;Kim, Ki-Yoon;Na, Kwan-Sik
    • Journal of Information Technology Services
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.117-130
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    • 2008
  • Multi-attribute risk assessments provide a useful framework for systematic quantitative risk assessment that the security manager can use to prioritize security requirements and threats. In the first step, the security managers identify the four significant outcome attributes(lost revenue, lost productivity, lost customer, and recovery cost). Next. the security manager estimates the frequency and severity(three points estimates for outcome attribute values) for each threat and rank the outcome attributes according to AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process). Finally, we generate the threat index by using muiti-attribute function and make sensitivity analysis with simulation package(Crystal Ball). In this paper, we show how multi-attribute risk analysis techniques from the field of security risk management can be used by security managers to prioritize their organization's threats and their security requirements, eventually they can derive threat index. This threat index can help security managers to decide whether their security investment is consistent with the expected risks. In addition, sensitivity analysis allows the security manager to explore the estimates to understand how they affect the selection.

An automated determination method of particulate matter on food surface (식품표면에 부착된 미세먼지의 정량법)

  • Park, Sun-Young;Bang, Bong-Jun;Lim, Dayoung;Chung, Donghwa;Lee, Dong-Un
    • Food Science and Industry
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    • v.54 no.1
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    • pp.29-33
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    • 2021
  • Particulate matter (PM) is an air pollutant that causes serious environmental problems in Korea and other countries. The annual average PM10 concentration in Korea is around 40 ㎛/㎥, which is more than twice as high as the WHO recommended standard. When consumed with food, fine PM can pose a risk to humans. However, the risk of fine PM has been focused on the risk of fine PM introduced through the respiratory system. We investigated the quantitative measuring methods of PM10 on food surface to identify possible risk analysis of fine PM. The surfaces of food with artificially contaminated PM10 were observed with a scanning electron microscope(SEM). An automatic object-based image analysis was used to analyze the amount and size distribution of particulate matter contained in SEM micrographs.

Hormone Replacement Therapy and Risk of Breast Cancer in Korean Women: A Quantitative Systematic Review

  • Bae, Jong-Myon;Kim, Eun Hee
    • Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health
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    • v.48 no.5
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    • pp.225-230
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    • 2015
  • Objectives: The epidemiological characteristics of breast cancer incidence by age group in Korean women are unique. This systematic review aimed to investigate the association between hormone replacement therapy (HRT) and breast cancer risk in Korean women. Methods: We searched electronic databases such as KoreaMed, KMbase, KISS, and RISS4U as well as PubMed for publications on Korean breast cancer patients. We also conducted manual searching based on references and citations in potential papers. All of the analytically epidemiologic studies that obtained individual data on HRT exposure and breast cancer occurrence in Korean women were selected. We restricted the inclusion of case-control studies to those that included age-matched controls. Estimates of summary odds ratio (SOR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated using random effect models. Results: One cohort and five case-control studies were finally selected. Based on the heterogeneity that existed among the six studies (I-squared=70.2%), a random effect model was applied. The summary effect size of HRT history from the six articles indicated no statistical significance in breast cancer risk (SOR, 0.983; 95% CI, 0.620 to 1.556). Conclusions: These facts support no significant effect of HRT history in the risk of breast cancer in Korean women. It is necessary to conduct a pooled analysis.