• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative-Risk-Analysis

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The study on interval calculation of cross passage in undersea tunnel by quantitative risk assesment method (해저철도터널(목포-제주간) 화재시 정량적 위험도 평가기법에 의한 피난연결통로 적정간격산정에 관한 연구)

  • Yoo, Ji-Oh;Kim, Jin-Su;Rie, Dong-Ho;Shin, Hyun-Jun
    • Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.249-256
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    • 2015
  • Quantitative Mokpo-Jeju undersea tunnel is currently on the basis plan for reviewing validation. As for the cross section shape for express boat of 105 km line, sing track two tube is being reviewed as the Euro tunnel equipped with service tunnel. Also, 10 carriage trains have been planned to operate 76 times for one way a day. So, in this study, quantitative risk assessment method is settled, which is intended to review the optimal space between evacuation connection hall of tunnel by quantitative risk analysis method. In addition to this, optimal evacuation connection hall space is calculated by the types of cross section, which are Type 3 (double track single tube), Type 1 (sing track two tube), and Type 2 (separating double track on tube with partition). As a result, cross section of Type 2 is most efficient for securing evacuation safety, and the evacuation connection space is required for 350 m in Type 1, 400 m in Type 2, and 1,500 m in Type3 to satisfy current domestic social risk assessment standard.

Analysis of Risk Control Options for Blockage Treatment (Subsea X-mas Tree에서의 Blockage 처리 실패에 대한 위험도 저감 방안 분석)

  • Yoo, Won-Woo;Park, Min-Sun;Yang, Young-Soon
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.27 no.2
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    • pp.47-52
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    • 2013
  • A subsea chemical injection system treats blockage problems in a subsea production system. It is important to treat problems quickly, because production delays cause fatal profit losses in a subsea production system. Therefore, the subsea industry requires a relatively higher reliability level for a production system compared to other industries. In this study, a subsea chemical injection system (linked to a control system) to inject chemicals into a subsea X-mas tree was analyzed. By using FSA (Formal Safety Assessment), the risk factors were defined and a quantitative risk analysis utilizing FTA (Fault Tree Analysis) and ETA (Event Tree Analysis) was performed. As a result, the effectiveness of a risk reduction option was evaluated.

The Architectural Analysis of the Buddy System for Qualitative Risk Analysis (정성적 위험 분석을 위한 버디 시스템의 구조 분석)

  • Jeongwon Yoon;Kim, Hong-Keun
    • Proceedings of the Korea Institutes of Information Security and Cryptology Conference
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    • 1995.11a
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    • pp.51-58
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    • 1995
  • The importance of the risk analysis tool has been recognized and its use also has been emphasized by a number of researchers recently The methodology were examined but neither algorithms nor practical applications have been implemented or practiced in Korea. In this paper, the architecture of the Buddy System, one of the automated risk assessment tools. is analyzed in depth to provide the algorithmic understanding and to promote the development of the risk analysis methodology. The Buddy System mainly uses three main factors of vulnerability, threat and countermeasures as a nucleus of the qualatative analysis with the modified loss expectancy value. These factors are identified and assessed by the separation of duties between the end user and security analyst. The Buddy System uses five axioms as its bases of assessment algorithm and the assessed vulnerability level is strictly within these axioms. Since the In-place countermeasures reduce the vulnerability level up to a certain level. the security analyst may use "what if " model to examine the impact of additional countermeasures by proposing each to reduce the vulnerability level further to within the acceptable range. The emphasis on the qualitative approach on vulnerability leveling is very well balanced with the quantitative analysis that the system performance is prominent.prominent.

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Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Two-Compartment Model for the Indoor Radon Pollution (실내 라돈오염 해석을 위한 2구역 모델의 민감도 및 불확실성 분석)

  • 유동한;이한수;김상준;양지원
    • Journal of Korean Society for Atmospheric Environment
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.327-334
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    • 2002
  • The work presents sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of 2-compartment model for the evaluation of indoor radon pollution in a house. Effort on the development of such model is directed towards the prediction of the generation and transfer of radon in indoor air released from groundwater. The model is used to estimate a quantitative daily human exposure through inhalation of such radon based on exposure scenarios. However, prediction from the model has uncertainty propagated from uncertainties in model parameters. In order to assess how model predictions are affected by the uncertainties of model inputs, the study performs a quantitative uncertainty analysis in conjunction with the developed model. An importance analysis is performed to rank input parameters with respect to their contribution to model prediction based on the uncertainty analysis. The results obtained from this study would be used to the evaluation of human risk by inhalation associated with the indoor pollution by radon released from groundwater.

Risk Analysis of Off-site Risk Assessment using Vulnerability by Environmental Medium (환경매체별 취약성을 반영한 장외영향평가 위험도 분석)

  • Choi, Woo Soo;Back, Jong Bae
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.33 no.5
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    • pp.150-156
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    • 2018
  • As the types and usage of chemical increase, modern countries should protect their health and environment from the risk of hazardous chemical. Chemical accidents not only affect humans but also cause huge losses to the environment. Moreover, since its effects do not end in a short period of time, it is necessary to identify the extent of the damage and establish a prevention and response system in advance. In 2015, the Chemical Substances Management Act provided a system for assessing the impact on the people and the environment around the workplace. However, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate the impact on environmental factors such as vegetation and aquatic, with the current hazard assessment methods. The purpose of this study is to analyze the quantitative risk of environmental receptors. This study improved the existing risk assessment formula by using the environmental vulnerability index and established the end point concentration criterion which can estimate the damage range to environmental media. To verify the results of the study, a virtual accident scenario was selected and a case study was conducted. As a result, the extent of impact on the environmental medium can be calculated, and the degree of environmental risk of the zone can be quantified through the risk analysis considering the environmental vulnerability. This study is expected to increase the reliability of the reliability of the existing risk anaylsis method beacause it is a risk analysis method that can be applied when the environmental factors are absolutely necessary and when the residents and environment are complex.

A Study on the Risk Evaluation for Chemical Transportation Tank Lorry of Chemical Plant (석유화학 사업장에서 운송 화학물질 위험관리)

  • Kim, Jeong-gon;Byun, Hun-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of societal Security
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.53-62
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    • 2008
  • Recently, the potential risks of tank lorry transportation from the petrochemical plant have been increasing, so the research was performed to build up the evaluation criterion of the transportation safety, as well as aggressive risk+assessment of a variety of chemical materials. This research was applied to the Maximum Credible Accident Analysis technique and modeled on the risk management of chemical transportation using the following four steps for risk evaluation, firstly the comparison of representative fype and standard of hand ling chemical materials transported by tank vehicles secondly, specific classification of potential hazards thirdly, grasp and recognition of virtual accident scenario at last, the risk evaluation of virtual accident scenario(qualitative/quantitative - chemical release modeling).

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The Development of Risk Assessment Program PML-Chem (위험성 평가 프로그램 PML-Chem 개발)

  • 김윤화;김형석;신동일;김인원;고재욱
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.97-102
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    • 1999
  • This study is to develope the quantitative risk assessment program for consequence analysis of fire and explosion (PML-Chem), which is applicable to the chemical plants. The advantages of PML-Chem is easy to use and acquire results. Especially, PML-Chem was embedded real weather condition database for major chemical plants in ${\bigcirc}{\bigcirc}$ complex in country. Also, reliability of PML-Chem was verified through comparing PML-Chem with PHAST-Professional which is already commercial.

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Increased Wall Enhancement Extent Representing Higher Rupture Risk of Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms

  • Jiang, Yeqing;Xu, Feng;Huang, Lei;Lu, Gang;Ge, Liang;Wan, Hailin;Geng, Daoying;Zhang, Xiaolong
    • Journal of Korean Neurosurgical Society
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    • v.64 no.2
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    • pp.189-197
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    • 2021
  • Objective : This study aims to investigate the relationship between aneurysm wall enhancement and clinical rupture risks based on the magnetic resonance vessel wall imaging (MR-VWI) quantitative methods. Methods : One hundred and eight patients with 127 unruptured aneurysms were prospectively enrolled from Feburary 2016 to October 2017. Aneurysms were divided into high risk (≥10) and intermediate-low risk group (<10) according to the PHASES (Population, Hypertension, Age, Size of aneurysm, Earlier SAH history from another aneurysm, Site of aneurysm) scores. Clinical risk factors, aneurysm morphology, and wall enhancement index (WEI) calculated using 3D MR-VWI were analyzed and compared. Results : In comparison of high-risk and intermediated-low risk groups, univariate analysis showed that neck width (4.5±3.3 mm vs. 3.4±1.7 mm, p=0.002), the presence of wall enhancement (100.0% vs. 62.9%, p<0.001), and WEI (1.6±0.6 vs. 0.8±0.8, p<0.001) were significantly associated with high rupture risk. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that WEI was the most important factor in predicting high rupture risk (odds ratio, 2.6; 95% confidence interval, 1.4-4.9; p=0.002). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis can efficiently differentiate higher risk aneurysms (area under the curve, 0.780; p<0.001) which have a reliable WEI cutoff value (1.04; sensitivity, 0.833; specificity, 0.67) predictive of high rupture risk. Conclusion : Aneurysms with higher rupture risk based on PHASES score demonstrate increased neck width, wall enhancement, and the enhancement intensity. Higher WEI in unruptured aneurysms has a predictive value for increased rupture risk.

A study on optimal planning of risk reduction for water suspension in water pipe system using fault tree analysis (결함트리분석을 이용한 상수관망 단수 리스크 저감 최적 방안 연구)

  • Choi, Tae Ho;Kim, A Ri;Kim, Min Cheol;Koo, Ja Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Water and Wastewater
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    • v.28 no.6
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    • pp.699-711
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    • 2014
  • This study was carried out to analyze water suspension in the water supply system through fault tree analysis. And quantitative factors was evaluated to minimize water suspension. Consequently the aim of this study is to build optimal planning by analyzing scenarios for water suspension. Accordingly the fault tree model makes it possible to estimate risks for water suspension, current risks is $92.23m^3/day$. The result of scenario analysis by pipe replacement, risks for water suspension was reduced $7.02m^3/day$ when replacing WD4 pipe. As a result of scenario analysis by water district connections, the amount of risk reduction is maximized when it is connecting to network pipe of D Zone. Therefore, connecting to network pipe for D Zone would be optimal to reduce risk for water suspension.

A Classifier for the association study between SNPs and quantitative traits (SNP와 양적 표현형의 연관성 분석을 위한 분류기)

  • Uhmn, Saangyong;Lee, Kwang Mo
    • Journal of the Korea Society of Computer and Information
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    • v.17 no.11
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    • pp.141-148
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    • 2012
  • The advance of technologies for human genome makes it possible that the analysis of association between genetic variants and diseases and the application of the results to predict risk or susceptibility to them. Many of those studies carried out in case-control study. For quantitative traits, statistical analysis methods are applied to find single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) relevant to the diseases and consider them one by one. In this study, we presented methods to select informative single nucleotide polymorphisms and predict risk for quantitative traits and compared their performance. We adopted two SNP selection methods: one considering single SNP only and the other of all possible pairs of SNPs.