• Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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• 제35권5호
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• pp.15-21
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• 2020

Quantitative risk assessment (QRA) is used as a legal or voluntary safety management tool for the hazardous material industry and the utilization of the method is gradually increasing. Therefore, a leak frequency analysis based on reliable generic data is a critical element in the evolution of QRA and safety technologies. The aim of this paper is to derive the leak frequency function that can be applied more flexibly in QRA based on OGP report with high reliability and global utilization. For the purpose, we first reviewed the data on the 16 equipments included in the OGP report and selected the predictors. And then we found good equations to fit the OGP data using non-linear regression analysis. The various expectation functions were applied to search for suitable parameter to serve as a meaningful reference in the future. The results of this analysis show that the best fitting parameter is found in the form of DNV function and connection function in natural logarithm. In conclusion, the average percentage error between the fitted and the original value is very small as 3 %, so the derived prediction function can be applicable in the quantitative frequency analysis. This study is to contribute to expand the applicability of QRA and advance safety engineering as providing the generic equations for practical leak frequency analysis.

• Journal of Digital Contents Society
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• 제19권5호
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• pp.899-906
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• 2018

In the entire process of disaster management, it is very significant to construct related information as well as perform quantitative assessment of damage losses with respect to minimizing the effect of disasters. Many countries have paid much attention not only to studying risk assessment methodologies including constructing inventories, hazard mapping, vulnerability assessment and direct/indirect damage loss estimation, but also to developing risk analysis tools investigated in this paper. We conducted comparison studies of representative earthquake damage risk analysis tools, and the result of this study is able to provide useful information to decision makers and researchers who can contribute to development of effective disaster management.

• Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.33-39
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• 2011

This study presented quantitative risk analysis in case of transporting explosive materials by railway. Accident types were classified into accidents of in station and in transit. And the study presented an initial value of accident frequency through derailment accident and crushing one according to each type, and drew the results of accident frequency through event tree analysis. Damage impact evaluation used TNT equivalent method and probit analysis method. As the result of risk evaluation, railway transportation of explosive materials passing through areas which are high in population density is appeared to be able to cause a large number of personnel injury when occurring accidents. Specially, the accident of explosive transportation combined with petroleum was forecasted as easily resulting in large explosive accident. Consequently, there is a necessity to reduce consequences by decreasing passage through areas where are high in population density, and take measures for lessening the risks in case of transporting dangerous explosive materials.

• Fire Science and Engineering
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.24-33
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• 2001

This article proposes a strategy for producing accident scenarios in quantitative risk, which is peformed in process design or operation steps. Present worldwide chemical processes need off-site risk assessment as well as on-site one. Most governments in the world require industrial companies to submit the proper emergency plans through off-site risk assessment. Korea is also preparing for executing Integrated Risk Management System along with PSM and SMS. However.

• Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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• 제5권3호
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• pp.363-377
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• 2018

The proper functioning of critical points on transport infrastructure is decisive for the entire network. Tunnels and bridges certainly belong to the critical points of the surface transport network, both road and rail. Risk management should be a holistic and dynamic process throughout the entire life cycle. However, the level of risk is usually determined only during the design stage mainly due to the fact that it is a time-consuming and costly process. This paper presents a simplified quantitative risk analysis method that can be used any time during the decades of a tunnel's lifetime and can estimate the changing risks on a continuous basis and thus uncover hidden safety threats. The presented method is a decision support system for tunnel managers designed to preserve or even increase tunnel safety. The CAPITA method is a deterministic scenario-oriented risk analysis approach for assessment of mortality risks in road tunnels in case of the most dangerous situation - a fire. It is implemented through an advanced risk analysis CAPITA SW. Both, the method as well as the resulting software were developed by the authors' team. Unlike existing analyzes requiring specialized microsimulation tools for traffic flow, smoke propagation and evacuation modeling, the CAPITA contains comprehensive database with the results of thousands of simulations performed in advance for various combinations of variables. This approach significantly simplifies the overall complexity and thus enhances the usability of the resulting risk analysis. Additionally, it provides the decision makers with holistic view by providing not only on the expected risk but also on the risk's sensitivity to different variables. This allows the tunnel manager or another decision maker to estimate the primary change of risk whenever traffic conditions in the tunnel change and to see the dependencies to particular input variables.

• Food Science of Animal Resources
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• 제39권4호
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• pp.565-575
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• 2019

This study evaluated Campylobacter jejuni risk in ground meat products. The C. jejuni prevalence in ground meat products was investigated. To develop the predictive model, survival data of C. jejuni were collected at $4^{\circ}C-30^{\circ}C$ during storage, and the data were fitted using the Weibull model. In addition, the storage temperature and time of ground meat products were investigated during distribution. The consumption amount and frequency of ground meat products were investigated by interviewing 1,500 adults. The prevalence, temperature, time, and consumption data were analyzed by @RISK to generate probabilistic distributions. In 224 samples of ground meat products, there were no C. jejuni-contaminated samples. A scenario with a series of probabilistic distributions, a predictive model and a dose-response model was prepared to calculate the probability of illness, and it showed that the probability of foodborne illness caused by C. jejuni per person per day from ground meat products was $5.68{\times}10^{-10}$, which can be considered low risk.

• Korean Journal of Radiology
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• 제21권11호
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• pp.1256-1264
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• 2020

Objective: Lung segmentation using volumetric quantitative computed tomography (CT) analysis may help predict outcomes of patients with coronavirus disease (COVID-19). The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between CT volumetric quantitative analysis and prognosis in patients with COVID-19. Materials and Methods: CT images from patients diagnosed with COVID-19 from February 18 to April 15, 2020 were retrospectively analyzed. CT with a negative finding, failure of quantitative analysis, or poor image quality was excluded. CT volumetric quantitative analysis was performed by automated volumetric methods. Patients were stratified into two risk groups according to CURB-65: mild (score of 0-1) and severe (2-5) pneumonia. Outcomes were evaluated according to the critical event-free survival (CEFS). The critical events were defined as mechanical ventilator care, ICU admission, or death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between the variables and prognosis. Results: Eighty-two patients (mean age, 63.1 ± 14.5 years; 42 females) were included. In the total cohort, male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 9.264; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.021-42.457; p = 0.004), C-reactive protein (CRP) (HR, 1.080 per mg/dL; 95% CI, 1.010-1.156; p = 0.025), and COVID-affected lung proportion (CALP) (HR, 1.067 per percentage; 95% CI, 1.033-1.101; p < 0.001) were significantly associated with CEFS. CRP (HR, 1.164 per mg/dL; 95% CI, 1.006-1.347; p = 0.041) was independently associated with CEFS in the mild pneumonia group (n = 54). Normally aerated lung proportion (NALP) (HR, 0.872 per percentage; 95% CI, 0.794-0.957; p = 0.004) and NALP volume (NALPV) (HR, 1.002 per mL; 95% CI, 1.000-1.004; p = 0.019) were associated with a lower risk of critical events in the severe pneumonia group (n = 28). Conclusion: CRP in the mild pneumonia group; NALP and NALPV in the severe pneumonia group; and sex, CRP, and CALP in the total cohort were independently associated with CEFS in patients with COVID-19.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Fisheries and Ocean Technology
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• 제60권3호
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• pp.300-311
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• 2024

This study quantitatively analyzes risks of industrial incidents to fisher on overseas tuna purse seiners and long liners. A Bayesian network is employed to analyze 478 cases of industrial incidents, comprising 401 cases from purse seiners and 77 cases from long liners, reported from 2019 to 2022. The highest risk of industrial incidents on purse seiners is attributed to diseases. Excluding diseases, risks are the highest during fishing: 5.31 times higher during catch handling, 2.05 times higher during maintenance, and 2.38 times higher during loading and unloading. The risk of industrial incidents caused by the hull is 9.50 times higher than those caused by fishing gear, 4.59 times higher than those caused by machinery, and 3.61 times higher than those caused by the caught fish. Among the types of industrial incidents, slips are the highest: 2.58 times higher than industrial incidents caused by being bump, 3.74 times higher than those caused by hit, and 3.94 times higher than those caused by imbalance and overexertion. For long liners, most industrial incidents are concentrated in diseases, with dental, musculoskeletal, skin, and respiratory diseases being the primary types of industrial incidents identified. This study aims to propose reduction measures for reducing the high-risk form of industrial incidents, specifically slips, and to present health management strategies for preventing diseases among fisher on overseas tuna fishing vessels. By addressing these aspects, this study seeks to contribute to the safety and sustainability of the overseas tuna fishing industry.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• 제32권3_4호
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• pp.343-357
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• 2014

In many non-life insurance applications past data are given in a form known as the run-off triangle. Smoothing such data using parametric crisp regression models has long served as the basis of estimating future claim amounts and the reserves set aside to protect the insurer from future losses. In this article a fuzzy counterpart of the Hoerl curve, a well-known claim reserving regression model, is proposed to analyze the past claim data and to determine the reserves. The fuzzy Hoerl curve is more flexible and general than the one considered in the previous fuzzy literature in that it includes a categorical variable with multiple explanatory variables, which requires the development of the fuzzy analysis of covariance, or fuzzy ANCOVA. Using an actual insurance run-off claim data we show that the suggested fuzzy Hoerl curve based on the fuzzy ANCOVA gives reasonable claim reserves without stringent assumptions needed for the traditional regression approach in claim reserving.

• Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.192-197
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• 2023

A Distributed reflection denial of service (DRDoS) is a variant of DDoS attacks that threatens the availability of services to legitimate users. In response to this evolving threat landscape, the cybersecurity industry and service providers have intensified their efforts to develop effective countermeasures. Despite these efforts, attackers continue to innovate, developing new strategies and tools while becoming more sophisticated. Consequently, DRDoS attacks continue to be harmful. Therefore, ongoing research and development is essential to improve defense against DRDoS attacks. To advance our understanding and analysis of DRDoS attacks, this study examines the unique characteristics of DRDoS attacks and quantifies the risks involved. Additionally, it adopts a quantitative rather than traditional qualitative methods to derive and apply risk, particularly the probability of loss that can be caused by DRDoS attacks.