• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk assessment and management

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A study on Risk-based Bridge Performance Evaluation Method for Asset Management (위험도 개념을 적용한 교량 자산관리의 성능평가방법 연구)

  • Choi, Hyun-Ho;Sun, Jong-Wan;Park, Kyung-Hoon
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.14 no.3
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    • pp.22-32
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    • 2013
  • Generally, asset management procedure consists of exact information collection, decision of service level, analysis of aspiration level, analysis of financial condition and available budget, preparation of asset management plan, and value of modified asset. In this study, for the risk-based asset management, condition assessment and performance measuring, assessment of failure modes and risks, evaluation/selection of treatment options, and implementation of optimum solution are additionally included. For this, bridge inventory and performance measure considering risks are classified and method of quantitative/qualitative performance measure is suggested. Also, evaluation method of risk analysis for bridge asset management is suggested and basic research is carried out for applicable method of risk-based asset management. Using suggested risk procedure and method of risk-based bridge service level evaluation, it is possible to perform resonable asset management. Moreover, it is concluded that the proposed applicable method of risk-based asset management will provide a solution to contribute the development of systematical asset management for optimal decision making and prototype asset management system.

Quantitative Safety Risk Assessment using Aviation Safety Data (항공안전데이터를 사용한 위해요인 위험도 정량적 평가기법)

  • Hyunjin Paek;Jun Hwan Kim;Jae Jin Lim;Sungjin Jeon;Young Jae Choi
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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    • v.30 no.4
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    • pp.145-158
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    • 2022
  • To manage State Safety Program (SSP) in a more integrative and proactive manner, an aviation safety authority of the state shall detect and assess the risk of emerging or hidden safety hazards before they provoke accidents or incidents(ICAO, 2018). In case of South Korea, safety risk assessment is conducted by calculating the likelihood and severity of the hazard following ICAO's safety management manual. It is reasonable to extract the safety risk likelihood by calculating the number of occurrence caused by the hazard. However, it is ambiguous to assess the safety risk severity defined as the extent of harm that might be expected to occur as a consequence of the identified hazard. In this paper, a safety risk assessment method which quantitatively calculates the risk of hazard using aviation safety data(i.e. aviation safety mandatory report, etc.) is proposed. By utilizing the proposed method, the existing process that safety risk is being subjectively assessed by safety inspectors can be supplemented. So that essential aviation safety policy decision making can be accomplished by the accurate result of safety risk assessment.

A Harmonized Method for Dose-response Risk Assessment Based on the Hazard & Risk Evaluation of Chemicals (HREC) According to the Industrial Safety and Health Act (ISHA) (산업안전보건법 상 유해성.위험성 평가제도 적용을 위한 양-반응 평가의 통일화 방안 연구)

  • Lim, Cheol-Hong;Yang, Jeong-Sun;Park, Sang-Yong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.22 no.3
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    • pp.175-183
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    • 2012
  • Objectives: This study developed a harmonized method for risk assessment based on the Hazard & Risk Evaluation of Chemicals (HREC) according to the Industrial Safety and Health Act (ISHA). Methods: Three preliminary studies, performed during 2010 and 2011 by the Occupational Safety and Health Research Institute and three academic research groups, were compared. The differences in risk assessment, especially in the dose-response assessment method, were analyzed. A new harmonized method for dose-response assessment was suggested and its applicability for the HREC was examined. Results: Considering the various steps of each dose-response assessment, the equivalent steps in quantitative correction, uncertainty factor 2 (UF2) for intra-species uncertainty, and UF3 for the experimental period in the uncertainty correction were relatively high. Using our new method, the total correction values (quantitative correction plus uncertainty correction) ranged from 72~15,789 to 30~60, and the ratio of the threshold limit value (TLV) to the reference concentration decreased from 12.8~1900 to 5.4~11.8. Furthermore, when we performed risk characterization by our new method, hazard quotient (HQ) values for chloroethylene, epichlorohydrin, and barium sulfate became 3.0, 14.1, and 1.13 respectively, whereas three previous studies reported HQ values of 7.1, 4580, and 87.3 considering reasonable maximum exposure (RME) conditions. HQs of the three chemicals were calculated to be 0.6, 2.4, and 0.1 respectively, when compared to their TLVs. Conclusions: Our new method could be applicable for the HREC because the total correction values and the ratio of TLVs were within reasonable ranges. It is also recommended that additional risk management measures be applied for epichlorohydrin, for which the HQ values were greater than 1 when compared with both reference values and the TLV. Our proposed method could be used to harmonize dose-response assessment methods for the implementation of risk assessment based on the HREC according to ISHA.

A study on fire design accidental loads for aluminum safety helidecks

  • Kim, Sang Jin;Lee, Jin;Paik, Jeom Kee;Seo, Jung Kwan;Shin, Won Heaop;Park, Joo Shin
    • International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering
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    • v.8 no.6
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    • pp.519-529
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    • 2016
  • The helideck structure must satisfy the safety requirements associated with various environmental and accidental loads. Especially, there have been a number of fire accidents offshore due to helicopter collision (take-off and/or landing) in recent decades. To prevent further accidents, a substantial amount of effort has been directed toward the management of fire in the safety design of offshore helidecks. The aims of this study are to introduce and apply a procedure for quantitative risk assessment and management of fires by defining the fire loads with an applied example. The frequency of helicopter accidents are considered, and design accidental levels are applied. The proposed procedures for determining design fire loads can be efficiently applied in offshore helideck development projects.

Regional Seismic Risk Assessment for Structural Damage to Buildings in Korea (국내 건축물 지진피해 위험도의 지역단위 평가)

  • Ahn, Sook-Jin;Park, Ji-Hun;Kim, Hye-Won
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.27 no.6
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    • pp.265-273
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    • 2023
  • This study proposes a methodology for the regional seismic risk assessment of structural damage to buildings in Korea based on evaluating individual buildings, considering inconsistency between the administrative district border and grid lines to define seismic hazard. The accuracy of seismic hazards was enhanced by subdividing the current 2km-sized grids into ones with a smaller size. Considering the enhancement of the Korean seismic design code in 2005, existing seismic fragility functions for seismically designed buildings are revised by modifying the capacity spectrum according to the changes in seismic design load. A seismic risk index in building damage is defined using the total damaged floor area considering building size differences. The proposed seismic risk index was calculated for buildings in 29 administrative districts in 'A' city in Korea to validate the proposed assessment algorithm and risk index. In the validation procedure, sensitivity analysis was performed on the grid size, quantitative building damage measure, and seismic fragility function update.

The Development of a Checklist for Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factors of Musculoskeletal Complaints in Shipbuilding Workers (조선소 근로자의 근골격계 자각증상에 대한 위험요인 평가척도 개발)

  • Kim, Won-Ho
    • Physical Therapy Korea
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.42-51
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    • 2009
  • The purpose of this study was to develop a checklist of risk factors for quantitative assessment of musculoskeletal complaints in shipbuilding workers. A key point was to develop comprehensive a checklist including the worker's physical ability, as ergonomic and workload factors. ln the first, through correlation analysis between musculoskeletal complaints and physical abilities in shipbuilding workers, risk factors related to physical abilities were selected. In the second, after the development of a checklist was composed of physical, ergonomic and workload factors, factor analysis was used to test the validity of the developed checklist. Each factors selected finally showed that physical factors were hand grip strength, spinal curvature, and flexibility (sit to reach), ergonomic factors were posture, total exposed time, duration, and force of working, and workload factors were physical and psychological workload perceived by worker. The results showed that musculoskeletal complaints was associated with physical abilities (p<.05). The developed checklist had a reliability of .761 (Cronbach=.761) and a validity and explanation of 54.9%. The criterion of management was classified in 4 stages by relative weights of each factor. It is suggested that active intervention is needed to reduce musculoskeletal complaints in workers with more than a 14.31 score.

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Risk Assessment Program of underground buried Pipeline Development (지하매설배관의 위험성평가 프로그램 개발)

  • Kim Tae Wook;Sung Jun Sik;Cho Yong Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.4 no.2 s.10
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    • pp.37-45
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    • 2000
  • The underground buried pipelines of Natural gas are relatively safer than any other pipelines of chemical plants, because Natural gas is non-corrosive fluid. But Natural gas is supplied normally the downtown area. So, it may be a disaster because of corrosion which is caused interference facilities, environment and third party accident which is caused facilities construction. Especially, it is very difficult to find out and inspect damages of pipeline because of buried pipelines. Therefore this paper approached to select and manage risk region pipelines according to introduction of underground buried pipeline's risk concept. Risk was indicated three parts - corrosion factor, design and construction factor, maintence and management factor - in this paper, Therefore qualitive risk of pipelines showed score as quantitative number. Also it was thought to be helpful in confidence and safety management that the concept of key index and failure supplementation measures to cost introduces this program. We developed this risk assessment program using visual basic tool and interfaced GIS.

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A Study on the Processing Method of Reliability Database using 2-Bayes Theory (2-Bayes 이론을 이용한 데이터 처리방법에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, M.S.;Rhie, K.W.;Kim, T.H.;Yoon, I.K.;Oh, Y.D.;Seo, D.H.
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.24 no.6
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    • pp.144-149
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    • 2009
  • The safety assessment for facility industry is now being periodically performed in Korea. For the purpose of scientific safety management, QRA(Quantitative Risk Assessment) is also being performed, and reliability data of the facilities is essential to perform the assessment. The necessary reliability data for QRA have been generally announced the values in other process industries, which results in the drop of risk reliability. The most appropriate method is to perform a direct reliability analysis towards the facilities undergoing safety assessment. In this study, the distinction between homogeneous sample estimation and multi-sample estimation of reliability data clarify using 2-Bayes theory.

A Study on the EPS Process of Quantitative Risk Assessment for the Safety Decision Making (EPS 공정의 정량적 위험성 평가를 통한 안전의사결정에 관한 연구)

  • 정재희;김형석;최광석;이영순
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.62-69
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    • 1999
  • The quantitative risk assessment and consequence analysis by accident scenario in the process of EPS(Expendable Poly Stylene) reaction process are conducted. And the decision making process is studied followed by selecting various alternatives to safety management and facility improvement. The result are as follows; 1) The object of decision making through comprehensive risk assessment are the scenario which can cause four major accident, which are made by process analysis, work analysis and hazard identification. 2) Frequency analysis of ETA, FTA, HRA and consequence analysis of accident to each have been conducted. The each frequency values are yielded $9.2{\times}10_{-5}/yr$ to scenarios $1, 8.2{\times}10^{-4}/yr$ to scenario 2, $4.5{\times}10^{-6}/yr$ scenario 3 and $1.8{\times}10^{-7}/yr$ to scenario 4. The each scenarios have been conducted consequence analysis. 3) The calculated values have been obtained 4.00 to scenario 1, 3.25 to scenario 2, 2.43 to scenario 3 and 1.34 to scenario 4, as the weight value had been applied to the quantitative and normalized criteria of all components. As a risk criteria, scenario 1 have been selected, which is the most dangerous scenario as a result of ranking the scenario. 4) According to the importance of FTA and contribute to scenario 1, the cost-benefit values are yielded $8.05\times10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(Al), $1.55{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A2) and $2.32{\times}10^5[₩/yr]$ to final alternative(A3). As a result of final alternative(Al) has been selected, which is the most optimized alternative.

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A Risk Assessment Method using Disaster Influence Factors on Construction Project (건설 프로젝트의 재해영향요인 기반 위험성 평가방법)

  • Yu, Yong-Sin;Choi, Jae-Wook;Kim, Tae-Wan;Lee, Chansik
    • Journal of the Architectural Institute of Korea Planning & Design
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    • v.35 no.6
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    • pp.3-12
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    • 2019
  • Current risk assessment methods typically determine accident risks embedded in construction projects by combining severity and frequency; however, they do not reflect the characteristics of construction projects. To solve the problem, this study aims to develop a novel risk assessment method that combines severity, frequency, and disaster influence factors (i.e., weather conditions and worker's characteristics) for assessing risks of activities occurring on a construction site actually. In this study, a severity was estimated by death against victims, and a frequency was estimated by the victim rate. The frequency was then converted to probability taking disaster influence factors into account. Thus, instead of considering severity and frequency for assessing the original risks (RO), the proposed method uses severity and probability to yield adjusted risks (RA) for each activity. A case study was conducted to determine if the proposed method works as intended in a real setting. The results show that RA is more sensitive to disaster influence factors than RO and, therefore, is able to assess the actual risks reflecting the working environment and conditions of a construction site. This study contributes to risk management of construction projects by offering a risk assessment method that measures a possibility of potential disasters from the probabilistic perspective. This method would help project managers assess accident risks in a more systematic and quantitative manner.