• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk assessment and management

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A Study on the Improvement of the TRA Framework for Complex Weapon Systems from the System Integration Perspective (시스템 통합 관점의 복합 무기체계 기술성숙도 평가 프레임워크 개선에 관한 연구)

  • Jiin Koo;Sukjae Jeong
    • Journal of The Korean Institute of Defense Technology
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    • v.5 no.2
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    • pp.23-30
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    • 2023
  • TRA(Technology Readiness Assessment) quantitatively assesses the current level of domestic technology and is used as a key tool for determining the possibility of domestic R&D and risk management. However, since the current TRA utilizes hardware-oriented TRL(Technology Readiness Level), it is suitable for independent assessment of each technologies, but has limitations in evaluation from a system integration perspective. In addition, the checklist-based assessment is highly likely to involve subjective evaluation. This study proposes an enhanced TRA framework by redefining TRA procedures and criteria from the systems integration perspective of system engineering. We focused on developing a framework that overcomes the limitations of the current TRL/TRA and enables easier and more intuitive assessment. The proposed framework distinguishes between TE(Technology Element) and CTE(Critical Technology Element) in terms of HW, SW and interface and redefines TRL. TRA is performed according to the TRL redefined from the above three points of view, and the lowest evaluation value is used as system maturity level in consideration of risk management. The proposed CTE selection method minimizes the intervention of the evaluator by utilizing the quantitative goal of the key ROC(Required Operational Capability), development difficulty, and application of COTS(Common Off The Shelf) technology. The effectiveness of this framework was confirmed through a case study of the TSS(Target Surveillance System). It is hoped that starting with this study, research at the framework level will be activated and contribute to the improvement of the TRA system.

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Risk Screening of a BTX Plant Using FEDI Method (화재폭발손실지수법을 이용한 BTX 공장의 위험선별)

  • Kim Yong-Ha;Kim In-Tae;Kim In-Won;Kim Ku-Hwoi;Yoon En-Sup
    • Fire Science and Engineering
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    • v.19 no.1 s.57
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    • pp.20-28
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    • 2005
  • Major petrochemical companies in the USA and the EU map out the strategies step-by-step hazard evaluation for the efficient risk management. They adopted the risk screening methods, such as Dow fire & explosion index, as a preliminary phase to execute detailed evaluation such as QRA (Quantitative Risk Assessment). In this study, The FEDI (Fire & Explosion Damage Index), which a kind of risk screening method proposed by Khan and Abbasi, was applied to the BTX plant in Korea. We showed that the FEDI can be effectively used to classify the hazard potential by comparison of the result from the FEDI and the result from QRA. And we showed that the characteristics and the quantities of chemical are the factors which have a largest effect on fire and explosion by executing relative sensitivity analysis of the FEDI. In conclusion, if the FEDI was applied as a preliminary phase of HAZOP, more efficient hazard evaluation can be possible.

Deep Learning-Based Artificial Intelligence for Mammography

  • Jung Hyun Yoon;Eun-Kyung Kim
    • Korean Journal of Radiology
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.1225-1239
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    • 2021
  • During the past decade, researchers have investigated the use of computer-aided mammography interpretation. With the application of deep learning technology, artificial intelligence (AI)-based algorithms for mammography have shown promising results in the quantitative assessment of parenchymal density, detection and diagnosis of breast cancer, and prediction of breast cancer risk, enabling more precise patient management. AI-based algorithms may also enhance the efficiency of the interpretation workflow by reducing both the workload and interpretation time. However, more in-depth investigation is required to conclusively prove the effectiveness of AI-based algorithms. This review article discusses how AI algorithms can be applied to mammography interpretation as well as the current challenges in its implementation in real-world practice.

Assessing the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders in 119 EMT: a focus on patient-carrying tasks (119구급대원의 업무 관련성 근골격계 질환 위험성 평가 : 환자 운반 작업을 중심으로)

  • Jeong-Won Son
    • The Korean Journal of Emergency Medical Services
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    • v.27 no.3
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: This study aims to evaluate the risk of work-related musculoskeletal disorders (WMSDs) in 119 EMT during patient-carrying tasks using a long backboard (LBB) and a variable stretcher. Methods: Manikins were used as patients, and 45 new 119 EMT from K Fire Academy were filmed performing patient-carrying tasks on stairs. The tasks were analyzed using Ovako working posture analysis system (OWAS) and Rapid entire body assessment (REBA). Results: In using LBB, the OWAS score was Mode 3(Mean 2.37, Maximum 3), requiring as soon as possible corrective action, the REBA score was Mode 11(Mean 9.16, Maximum 11), requiring immediate improvement. In using variable stretcher, the OWAS score was Mode 1(Mean 2.33, Maximum 3), non-necessity for corrective action, the REBA score was Mode 9(Mean 8.0, Maximum 11), requiring as soon as possible. Conclusion: In conclusion, improvement was needed in one task (carrying a patient using a LBB) in the OWAS and in two tasks (carrying a patient using a LBB, carrying a patient using a variable stretcher) in the REBA. Thereby, required attention and management of WMSDs during training. In addition, it is essential to carry out objective and quantitative assessments through ergonomic analysis by occupational health professionals when designing future training programs to prevent WMSDs.

The Development of a Checklist for Quantitative Assessment of Risk Factors and Management of Cumulative Trauma Disorders : Application to Automobile Assembly Lines (누적외상성질환 위험 요인의 정량적 평가 및 관리를 위한 점검표 개발 -자동차 조립 작업을 중심으로-)

  • Lee, Yun-Keun;Kim, Hyun-Wook;Yim, Shang-Hyuk;Park, Hee-Sok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.56-69
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    • 2001
  • Objectives : This study was designed to develop and standardize a checklist for ergonomic risk factors, and to provide ergonomic guidelines for managing cumulative trauma disorders (CTDs) in automobile assembly lines. Methods : The Checklist for Ergonomic Risk Factors (CERF-1) was developed based on the results of previous studies, and then modified after performing pilot study. Information on the symptoms possibly related with CTDs was obtained using a self-reported Questionnaire from 465 automobile assembly workers. Their job conditions were examined to assess risk factors through both direct observation and video analysis. Results : Rate of detecting risky job through CERF-1 was 85.6%, and was similar to that (88.8%) by Occupational Safety and Health Adminstration(OSHA) checklist but higher than that (63.7%) by American National Standards Institute(ANSI) Z-365. Relationship of the exposure scores derived from CERF-1 with levels of symptom was greater (r=0.49) than OSHA (r=0.28) and ANSI Z-365 (r=0.22). Considering the relationship, jobs scoring higher than 16 could be classified as the Risk Job. and lower than 16 as the Low Risk Job. Sensitivity and specificity of the Risk Job were 92.5 % and 31.5 %, respectively. Odds ratio (OR) after age adjustment was 5.69 (95 % confidence interval 3.15-10.29) for the Risk Job, and these ORs were significantly different from those of the Low Risk Job. The exposure scores were Quite valid, in that the scores at the main survey were significantly correlated with those at the follow-up survey, as suggested by test-retest(r=0.88) and inter-rater reliability(r=0.80). Conclusions : The CERF-1, developed in this study, will be an efficient tool for evaluation of risk jobs for CTDs in automobile assembly lines, and can be used easily by health care providers.

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A Study on Developing Assessment indicators for Cyber Resilience (사이버 레질리언스 평가지표 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Sujin;Kim, Jungduk
    • Journal of Digital Convergence
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    • v.15 no.8
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    • pp.137-144
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    • 2017
  • Recently, cyber resilience has emerged as an important concept, recognizing that there is no perfect security. However, domestic researches on cyber resilience are insufficient. In this study, the 22 indicators for cyber resilience assessment were initially developed by the literature survey and discussions with security experts. The developed indicators are reviewed using the Focus Group Interview method in terms of materiality and feasibility of the indicators. This study derived meaningful and useful indicators for the assessment of cyber resilience, and it is expected to be used as a foundation for the future cyber resilience studies. In order to generalize and apply the results of this study in practice, it is necessary to carry out quantitative researches in the future.

International Case Study and Strategy Proposal for IUCN Red List of Ecosystem(RLE) Assessment in South Korea (국내 IUCN Red List of Ecosystem(생태계 적색목록) 평가를 위한 국제 사례 연구와 전략 제시)

  • Sang-Hak Han;Sung-Ryong Kang
    • Journal of Wetlands Research
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    • v.25 no.4
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    • pp.408-416
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    • 2023
  • The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems serves as a global standard for assessing and identifying ecosystems at high risk of biodiversity loss, providing scientific evidence necessary for effective ecosystem management and conservation policy formulation. The IUCN Red List of Ecosystems has been designated as a key indicator (A.1) for Goal A of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework. The assessment of the Red List of Ecosystems discerns signs of ecosystem collapse through specific criteria: reduction in distribution (Criterion A), restricted distribution (Criterion B), environmental degradation (Criterion C), changes in biological interaction (Criterion D), and quantitative estimation of the risk of ecosystem collapse (Criterion E). Since 2014, the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems has been evaluated in over 110 countries, with more than 80% of the assessments conducted in terrestrial and inland water ecosystems, among which tropical and subtropical forests are distributed ecosystems under threat. The assessment criteria are concentrated on spatial signs (Criteria A and B), accounting for 68.8%. There are three main considerations for applying the Red List of Ecosystems assessment domestically: First, it is necessary to compile applicable terrestrial ecosystem types within the country. Second, it must be determined whether the spatial sign assessment among the Red List of Ecosystems categories can be applied to the various small-scale ecosystems found domestically. Lastly, the collection of usable time series data (50 years) for assessment must be considered. Based on these considerations, applying the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems assessment domestically would enable an accurate understanding of the current state of the country's unique ecosystem types, contributing to global efforts in ecosystem conservation and restoration.

Risk Analysis using Construction Insurance Claim Payouts (건설공사보험 피해 보상금 지급액을 활용한 리스크 분석)

  • Yu, Yeong-Jin;Son, Kiyoung;Kim, Ji-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.349-357
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    • 2016
  • Recently, the quantity of risk in construction project has been inflated due to the fact that current construction projects have been large and complicated. Therefore, a study on the risk management methods is necessary that can predict and respond to the need in complicated modern construction projects. In this study, the objective is to analyze the cause of accident in actual construction sites and develop a risk assessment model based on insurance claims records. To reach the goal of this study, first, the frequency and severity of accidents are analyzed the causes of accidents based on the classification; progress rate, season, and total construction costs. Second, a risk assessment model is developed by utilizing a multiple regression analysis. The dependent variable is loss ratio of material damage and three categories; natural hazards, geographic information, and construction method & ability, are used as the independent variables. The model's adjusted R-square is 0.455. The contributions of this study will be used as a material for a quantitative risk analysis model development and review of the construction risk factors for future study.

Estimating Worst Case Flood and Inundation Damages under Climate Change

  • Kim, Sunmin;Tachikawa, Yasuto;Nakakita, Eiichi
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2016.05a
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    • pp.189-189
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    • 2016
  • To generate information that contributes to climate change risk management, it is important to perform a precise assessment on the impact in diverse aspects. Considering this academic necessity, Japanese government launched continuous research project for the climate change impact assessment, and one of the representative project is Program for Risk Information on Climate Change (Sousei Program), Theme D; Precise Impact Assessment on Climate Change (FY2012 ~ FY2016). In this research program, quantitative impact assessments have been doing from a variety of perspectives including natural hazards, water resources, and ecosystems and biodiversity. Especially for the natural hazards aspect, a comprehensive impact assessment has been carried out with the worst-case scenario of typhoons, which cause the most serious weather-related damage in Japan, concerning the frequency and scale of the typhoons as well as accompanying disasters by heavy rainfall, strong winds, high tides, high waves, and landslides. In this presentation, a framework of comprehensive impact assessment with the worst-case scenario under the climate change condition is introduced based on a case study of Theme D in Sousei program There are approx. 25 typhoons annually and around 10 of those approach or make landfall in Japan. The number of typhoons may not change increase in the future, but it is known that a small alteration in the path of a typhoon can have an extremely large impact on the amount of rain and wind Japan receives, and as a result, cause immense damage. Specifically, it is important to assess the impact of a complex disaster including precipitation, strong winds, river overflows, and high tide inundation, simulating how different the damage of Isewan Typhoon (T5915) in 1959 would have been if the typhoon had taken a different path, or how powerful or how much damage it would cause if Isewan Typhoon occurs again in the future when the sea surface water temperature has risen due to climate changes (Pseudo global warming experiment). The research group also predict and assess how the frequency of "100-years return period" disasters and worst-case damage will change in the coming century. As a final goal in this research activity, the natural disaster impact assessment will extend not only Japan but also major rivers in Southeast Asia, with a special focus on floods and inundations.

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Risk Ranking Determination of Combination of Foodborne Pathogens and Livestock or Livestock Products (식중독 세균과 주요 축산식품 및 가공품 조합에 대한 위해순위 결정)

  • Hong, Soo-Hyeon;Park, Na-Yoon;Jo, Hye-Jin;Ro, Eun-Young;Ko, Young-Mi;Na, Yu-Jin;Park, Keun-Cheol;Choi, Bum-Geun;Min, Kyung-Jin;Lee, Jong-Kyung;Moon, Jin-San;Yoon, Ki-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.30 no.1
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2015
  • This study was performed to determine risk ranking of the combination of pathogen-livestock or livestock products to identify the most significant public health risks and to prioritize risk management strategies. First, we reviewed foodborne outbreak data related to livestock products and determined main vehicles and pathogens according to the number of outbreak and case. Second, expert's opinion about management priority of pathogen-livestock product pairing was surveyed with 19 livestock experts in the university, research center, and government agency. Lastly, we used the outcome of Risk Ranger (semi-quantitative risk ranking tool) of 14 combinations of pathogen and livestock or livestock products. We have classified the combination of pathogen-livestock products into group I (high risk), II (medium risk), and III (low risk) according to their risk levels and management priority. Group I, which is the highest risk for foodborne outbreak, includes Salmonella spp./egg and egg products, Campylobacter spp./poultry, pathogenic E. coli/meat and processed ground meat. In conclusion, the results of this study will provide the specific guideline of mid- and long-term planning for risk assessment and risk management prioritization of the combination of pathogen and livestock, or livestock product.