• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk assessment and management

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A Study on Safety Distance for Small Scale LNG Storage facility (소규모 LNG 저장시설의 안전거리 기준 연구)

  • Oh, Shin-Kyu;Jo, Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.185-191
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    • 2014
  • In this study safety distance was investigated for small-scale LNG storage facilities in order to provide basic data for safety. The results are as follows; (1) For explosion pressure criteria, current criteria are reasonable, but water spray system should be recommended to LNG storage tank to ensure safety. (2) For criteria based on the results of the quantitative risk assessment, criteria applied to people are $5kW/m^2$ for radiation, LFL for dispersion, and 7kPa for explosion pressure. And criteria applied to facility are $37.5kW/m^2$ for radiation and 20 kPa for explosion pressure.

A Study on the Cost Analysis of risk facilities using e-Consequence Analysis - Focusing Steel pipe Industry (e-CA(e-Consequence Analysis)를 활용한 위험설비의 비용 분석에 관한 연구 : 강관제조업 사례를 중심으로)

  • Kwon, Hyeok Min;Hwang, Yong Woo;Lee, Ik Mo;Chun, Young Woo;Choi, Young Hun
    • Journal of the Korea Safety Management & Science
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.27-36
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    • 2018
  • The steel pipe manufacturing industry deals with facilities and materials. Especially thermal facilities are close to vapor cloud explosion (VCE) and may cause secondary damage to facilities because they deal with corrosive substances such as hydrofluoric acid, sulfuric acid and acid, fire, explosion, leakage etc. It is in danger. In this study, hazard identification method was conducted using HAZOP techniques and quantitative risk analysis was conducted using e-CA, a program that supports accident impact analysis. Equipment in the influence range of ERPG - 3 was determined to be a facility requiring replacement. It was decided that neutralization is necessary using slaked lime. Based on the cost of loss, We presented the proper replacement which is the timing of the dangerous facility. As a result, It was ideal to replace the facilities with 20 years of heat treatment facilities, one year of hydrofluoric acid storage tank, 20 years of sulfuric acid storage tank, and 5 years of hydrochloric acid storage tank.

Determination of Risk Ranking of Combination of Potentially Hazardous Foods and Foodborne Pathogens Using a Risk Ranger (Risk Ranger를 활용한 잠재적 위해식품과 미생물 조합에 대한 위해순위 결정)

  • Min, Kyung-Jin;Hwang, In-Gyun;Lee, Soon-Ho;Cho, Joon-Il;Yoon, Ki-Sun
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.26 no.2
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    • pp.91-99
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    • 2011
  • Risk ranking must be determined for various hazards/food combinations to conduct microbial risk management effectively. Risk Ranger is a simple, easy-to-use calculation tool developed in Microsoft Excel and designed to rank the risk (low, medium, and high) for semi-quantitative microbial risk assessment. The user is required to answer 11 questions in Risk Ranger related to 1) severity of the hazard, 2) likelihood of a disease-causing dose of the hazard being present in the meal, and 3) the probability of exposure to the hazard in a defined time. This study determined the risk ranking for twenty three combinations of foodborne pathogens/potentially hazardous foods (PHFs) using a Risk Ranger. In this study, pathogenic E. coli in fresh cut produce salad was scored as 79, which was the highest rank among the 23 combinations of the foodborne pathogens and PHFs. On the other hand, zero risk was obtained with V parahaemolyticus in sushi, Salmonella in meat products and E. coli O157:H7 in hamburger patties. Although Risk Ranger is very simple method to rate the risk of foodborne pathogens and PHFs combination, the accuracy of result was mainly affected by the availability and accuracy of data in the literature. According to the result of literature review, the data are needed for contamination rate of raw materials, consumption amount/frequency of PHFs, and the effect of processing on pathogen. Risk ranking must be continuously revalidated with new data.

Development of Korean Food-Chemical Ranking and Scoring System (Food-CRS-Korea) and Its Application to Prioritizing Food Toxic Chemicals Associated with Environmental Pollutants (환경유래 식품오염물질의 우선순위 선정 기법 (Food-CRS-Korea)의 개발과 적용)

  • Yang, Ji-Yeon;Jang, Ji-Young;Kim, Soo-Hwaun;Kim, Yoon-Kwan;Lee, Hyo-Min;Shin, Dong-Chun;Lim, Young-Wook
    • Environmental Analysis Health and Toxicology
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    • v.25 no.1
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    • pp.41-55
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    • 2010
  • The aims of this study were to develop the suitable "system software" in chemical ranking and scoring (CRS) for the food hazardous chemicals associated with environmental emission and to suggest the priority lists of food contamination by environmental-origined pollutants. Study materials were selected with reference to the priority pollutants list for environment and food management from domestic and foreign research and the number of study materials is 103 pollutants (18 heavy metals, 10 PBTs, 10 EDs, and 65 organic compounds). The Food-CRS-Korea system consisted of the environmental fate model via multimedia, transfer environment to food model, and health risk assessment by contaminated food intake. We have established that health risks of excess cancer risks, hazard quotients (HQs) by chronic toxicity and HQs by reproductive toxicity convert to score, respectively. The creditable scoring system was designed to consider uncertainty of quantitative risk assessment based on VOI (Value-Of-Information). The predictability of the Food-CRS-Korea model was evaluated by comparing the presumable values and the measured ones of the environmental media and foodstuffs. The priority lists based on emissions with background-level-correction are 15 pollutants such as arsenic, cadmium, and etc. The priority lists based on environmental monitoring date are 17 pollutants including DEHP, TCDD, and so on. Consequently, we suggested the priority lists of 13 pollutants by considering the several emission and exposure scenarios. According to the Food-CRS-Korea system, arsenics, cadmium, chromes, DEHP, leads, and nickels have high health risk rates and reliable grades.

Risk Assessment of Levee Embankment Integrated Erosion and Seepage Failure Factor (침식과 침투영향을 고려한 하천제방의 위험도 평가)

  • Ahn, Ki-Hong;Han, Kun-Yeun
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.42 no.8
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    • pp.591-605
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    • 2009
  • In this study the risk integrated erosion and seepage failure factor and combined risk of the levee embankment were assessed. For the research of the reliability, the risk assessment of erosion, seepage and both of them combined for the levee embankment were conducted using discharge curve and stage hydrograph generated by stochastic rainfall variation method during typhoon and monsoon season. The risk of erosion was evaluated using tractive force and the seepage analysis was performed by selecting representative cross sections for SEEP/W model analysis. And the probability of seepage failure was assessed with MFOSM analysis using critical hydraulic gradient method. Unlike deterministic analysis method, quantitative risk could be obtained and the characteristics of realistic rainfall variation patterns as well as a variety of factors contributing to levee failure could be reflected in this research. The results of this study show significantly enhanced applicability for the combined risk. As this model can be employed to determine dangerous spots for levee failure and to establish flood insurance linked with flood risk map, it will dramatically contribute to the establishment of both efficient and systematic measures for integrated flood management on a watershed.

Computer modelling of fire consequences on road critical infrastructure - tunnels

  • Pribyl, Pavel;Pribyl, Ondrej;Michek, Jan
    • Structural Monitoring and Maintenance
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    • v.5 no.3
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    • pp.363-377
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    • 2018
  • The proper functioning of critical points on transport infrastructure is decisive for the entire network. Tunnels and bridges certainly belong to the critical points of the surface transport network, both road and rail. Risk management should be a holistic and dynamic process throughout the entire life cycle. However, the level of risk is usually determined only during the design stage mainly due to the fact that it is a time-consuming and costly process. This paper presents a simplified quantitative risk analysis method that can be used any time during the decades of a tunnel's lifetime and can estimate the changing risks on a continuous basis and thus uncover hidden safety threats. The presented method is a decision support system for tunnel managers designed to preserve or even increase tunnel safety. The CAPITA method is a deterministic scenario-oriented risk analysis approach for assessment of mortality risks in road tunnels in case of the most dangerous situation - a fire. It is implemented through an advanced risk analysis CAPITA SW. Both, the method as well as the resulting software were developed by the authors' team. Unlike existing analyzes requiring specialized microsimulation tools for traffic flow, smoke propagation and evacuation modeling, the CAPITA contains comprehensive database with the results of thousands of simulations performed in advance for various combinations of variables. This approach significantly simplifies the overall complexity and thus enhances the usability of the resulting risk analysis. Additionally, it provides the decision makers with holistic view by providing not only on the expected risk but also on the risk's sensitivity to different variables. This allows the tunnel manager or another decision maker to estimate the primary change of risk whenever traffic conditions in the tunnel change and to see the dependencies to particular input variables.

A Quantitative Security Metric Based on MITRE ATT&CK for Risk Management (위험 관리를 위한 MITRE ATT&CK 기반의 정량적 보안 지표)

  • Haerin Kim;Seungwoon Lee;Su-Youn Hong
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.53-60
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    • 2024
  • Security assessment is an indispensable process for a secure network, and appropriate performance indicators must be present to manage risks. The most widely used quantitative indicator is CVSS. CVSS has a problem that it cannot consider context in terms of subjectivity, complexity of interpretation, and security risks. To compensate for these problems, we propose indicators that itemize and quantify four things: attackers, threats, responses, and assets, taking into account the security context of ISO/IEC 15408 documents. Vulnerabilities discovered through network scanning can be mapped to MITREATT&CK's technology by the connection between weaknesses and attack patterns (CAPEC). We use MITREATT&CK's Groups, Tactic, and Mitigations to produce consistent and intuitive scores. Accordingly, it is expected that security evaluation managers will have a positive impact on strengthening security such as corporate networks by expanding the range of choices among security indicators from various perspectives.

Assessment of Safety Management Cost with Accident Scenarios at Gas Governor Station (가스공급기지에서 사고 시나리오에 따른 안전관리비 평가)

  • Kim Tae-Ok;Jang Seo-Il;Kim So-Mi
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Gas
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    • v.8 no.3 s.24
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    • pp.37-42
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    • 2004
  • This study established a catastrophic scenario and a likely scenario by qualitative and quantitative risk assessments to consider climate condition with season, and assessed efficiency of safety management cost with scenarios by cost-benefit analysis. As results, the catastrophic scenario was the maintenance error for unsteady state operation, and the likely scenario was the gas release accident at node $\sharp$4 of HAZOP Also, benefit/cost ratios for total safety management cost and effective items of safety management could be assessed at each scenario.

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Study on Topsoil Erosion Indices for Efficient Topsoil Management (효율적 표토 관리를 위한 표토침식지표 연구)

  • Jung, Younghun;Kum, Donghyuk;Han, Jeongho;Jang, Chunhwa;Yang, Jay E;Lim, Kyoung Jae;Kim, Ki-Sung
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.31 no.5
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    • pp.543-555
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    • 2015
  • The existing standard for soil erosion risk assessment has limitations in sustainable topsoil management since the fixed criteria are applied to determination of soil erosion risk areas regardless of land use types. It may not be necessary to apply soil erosion best management practices to agricultural areas with high potential of soil erosion because human or economic damage derived from soil erosion might be tiny in that region. Furthermore, the fixed criterion with absolute values can select too many hot spots of soil erosion to conduct efficient soil erosion management. Thus, objective of this study was to suggest the relative criteria using statistical analysis for efficient soil erosion management. In future, the relative indices for soil erosion prevention should be improved to provide a priority of soil erosion management considering economic damage from soil erosion or functional values of soil with quantitative soil erosion. Additional researches will be needed to reflect a regional characteristics and to consider various land use types and different criteria.

A Study on Damage Assessment for Fuel Cell Facilities in Gas Stations (주유소 내 연료전지설비에 대한 사고피해예측 연구)

  • Sung Yoon Lim;Jang Choon Lee;Jae Hoon Lee;Seung Ho Choi
    • Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2023
  • Fuel cells are low-carbon power sources that can expand distributed energy system and electric vehicle charging infrastructure when installing fuel cells in gas stations. In order to ensure safety for fuel cells in gas stations, quantitative risk assessments were conducted after deriving accident scenarios based on accident data of domestic and foreign gas stations and fuel cells. It calculates the expected extent of damage from fire and explosion that can occur in reality, not the worst accident scenario, and analyzes the damage impact. The separation distance of more than 9.0 m from a dispenser, 15.5 m from a car under refueling, 4.1 m from the ventilation pipe, 1.1 m from the gas adjustment device prevent the severe damage caused by the expected accident. This study result can be used to deploy fuel cells in gas stations and establish safety measures.