• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative risk

Search Result 1,128, Processing Time 0.029 seconds

Establishment of Complex Disaster Scenario on the Utility Tunnel Study for Digital Twin System Application (디지털트윈 시스템 적용을 위한 공동구 복합재난 시나리오 구축)

  • Yon Ha Chung; So Dam Kim;Hyun Jeong Seo;Hojun Lee;Tae Jung Song
    • Journal of the Society of Disaster Information
    • /
    • v.18 no.4
    • /
    • pp.861-872
    • /
    • 2022
  • The purpose of this study was to establish a complex disaster scenario that can comprehensively consider various disaster situations that may occur in the utility tunnel. Method: In order to comprehensively consider the correlation between disasters, a composite disaster scenario was derived from a combination of damage factors, respectively. A risk assessment was performed in order to derive the priorities of the scenarios. And based on the results, the priorities of complex disaster scenarios were set. Result: Based on the disaster cases in the utility tunnel, a plan was prepared for complex disaster scenarios centered on damage. A complex disaster scenario was specified using a semi-quantitative evaluation method for single and multiple disaster factors such as fire, flooding, and earthquake. Conclusion: The composite disaster scenario derived from this study can be used for the prevention and preparation of damage when the precursor symptoms of a disaster are detected. In addition, the results of this study are expected to be used as basic data for preparing strategic plans and preparing complex disaster response technologies to induce rapid response and recovery in case of emergency disasters.

A Study on Automated Stock Trading based on Volatility Strategy and Fear & Greed Index in U.S. Stock Market (미국주식 매매의 변동성 전략과 Fear & Greed 지수를 기반한 주식 자동매매 연구)

  • Sunghyuck Hong
    • Advanced Industrial SCIence
    • /
    • v.2 no.3
    • /
    • pp.22-28
    • /
    • 2023
  • In this study, we conducted research on the automated trading of U.S. stocks through a volatility strategy using the Fear and Greed index. Volatility in the stock market is a common phenomenon that can lead to fluctuations in stock prices. Investors can capitalize on this volatility by implementing a strategy based on it, involving the buying and selling of stocks based on their expected level of volatility. The goal of this thesis is to investigate the effectiveness of the volatility strategy in generating profits in the stock market.This study employs a quantitative research methodology using secondary data from the stock market. The dataset comprises daily stock prices and daily volatility measures for the S&P 500 index stocks. Over a five-year period spanning from 2016 to 2020, the stocks were listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). The strategy involves purchasing stocks from the low volatility group and selling stocks from the high volatility group. The results indicate that the volatility strategy yields positive returns, with an average annual return of 9.2%, compared to the benchmark return of 7.5% for the sample period. Furthermore, the findings demonstrate that the strategy outperforms the benchmark return in four out of the five years within the sample period. Particularly noteworthy is the strategy's performance during periods of high market volatility, such as the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, where it generated a return of 14.6%, as opposed to the benchmark return of 5.5%.

Introduction of Two-region Model for Simulating Long-Term Erosion of Bentonite Buffer (벤토나이트 완충재 장기 침식을 모사하기 위한 Two-region 모델 소개)

  • Jaewon Lee;Jung-Woo Kim
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
    • /
    • v.33 no.4
    • /
    • pp.228-243
    • /
    • 2023
  • Bentonite is widely recognized and utilized as a buffer material in high-level radioactive waste repositories, mainly due to its favorable characteristics such as swelling capability and low permeability. Bentonite buffers play an important role in ensuring the safe disposal of radioactive waste by providing a low permeability barrier and effectively preventing the migration of radionuclides into the surrounding rock. However, the long-term performance of bentonite buffers still remains a subject of ongoing research, and one of the main concerns is the erosion of the buffer induced by swelling and groundwater flow. The erosion of the bentonite buffer can significantly impact repository safety by compromising the integrity of buffer and leading to the formation of colloids that may facilitate the transport of radionuclides through groundwater, consequently elevating the risk of radionuclide migration. Therefore, it is very important to numerically quantify the erosion of bentonite buffer to evaluate the long-term performance of bentonite buffer, which is crucial for the safety assessment of high-level radioactive waste disposal. In this technical note, Two-region model is introduced, a proposed model to simulate the erosion behavior of bentonite based on a dynamic bentonite diffusion model, and quantitative evaluation is conducted for the bentonite buffer erosion with this model.

Does the Health Supplement HemoHIM Cause Liver Injury? (건강기능식품 헤모힘이 간손상을 일으키는가?)

  • Seok Jeong Yang;Jeong-Sook Park;Byung-Sun Kim;Kwang-Jae Lee
    • Journal of Industrial Convergence
    • /
    • v.21 no.6
    • /
    • pp.37-42
    • /
    • 2023
  • This study aimed to examine the safety of HemoHIM, a dietary supplement containing methoxsalen. HemoHIM is a dietary supplement marketed globally, and a competitor to ginseng. It has been reported to contain methoxsalen, a plant extract for treating psoriasis and vitiligo. Methoxsalen is known to cause hepatotoxicity, but most of the cases has been reported from ingestion as a drug, not a food. There are no reports of hepatotoxicity from the consumption derived from natural products such as Angelica gigas, Cnidium officinale, and Paeonia lactiflora, which are the main ingredients in the HemoHIM. However, a recent case of acute hepatitis was reported in Hong-Kong after ingestion of HemoHIM. It is difficult to conclude that hepatitis was caused by HemoHIM, because there was no check of co-occurring medications with a higher risk of hepatotoxicity, no description of the progress, no quantitative comparison of methoxsalen in HemoHIM to it in common foods such as carrots and celery, and no description of the patient's underlying diseases. On the other hand, there was a study that suggest hemoHIM is safe, and that study had adequate number of subjects even though more studies are needed to ensure safety.

Predicting the Fetotoxicity of Drugs Using Machine Learning (기계학습 기반 약물의 태아 독성 예측 연구)

  • Myeonghyeon Jeong;Sunyong Yoo
    • Journal of Life Science
    • /
    • v.33 no.6
    • /
    • pp.490-497
    • /
    • 2023
  • Pregnant women may need to take medications to treat preexisting diseases or diseases that develop during pregnancy. However, some drugs may be fetotoxic and lead to, for example, teratogenicity and growth retardation. Predicting the fetotoxicity of drugs is thus important for the health of the mother and fetus. The fetotoxicity of many drugs has not been established because various challenges hinder the ability of researchers to determine their fetotoxicity. The need exists for in silico-based fetotoxicity assessment models, as they can modernize the testing paradigm, improve predictability, and reduce the use of animals and the costs of fetotoxicity testing. In this study, we collected data on the fetotoxicity of drugs and constructed fetotoxicity prediction models based on various machine learning algorithms. We optimized the models for more precise predictions by tuning the hyperparameters. We then performed quantitative performance evaluations. The results indicated that the constructed machine learning-based models had high performance (AUROC >0.85, AUPR >0.9) in fetotoxicity prediction. We also analyzed the feature importance of our model's predictions, which could be leveraged to identify the specific features of drugs that are strongly associated with fetotoxicity. The proposed model can be used to prescreen drugs and drug candidates at a lower cost and in less time. It provides a predictive score for fetotoxicity risk, which may be beneficial in the design of studies on fetotoxicity in human pregnancy.

Analysis of the Effectiveness of Tunnel Traffic Safety Information Service Using RADAR Data Based on Surrogate Safety Measures (레이더 검지기 자료를 활용한 SSM 기반 터널 교통안전정보 제공 서비스 효과분석)

  • Yongju Kim;Jaehyeon Lee;Sungyong Chung;Chungwon Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
    • /
    • v.22 no.3
    • /
    • pp.73-87
    • /
    • 2023
  • Furnishing traffic safety information can contribute to providing hazard warnings to drivers, thereby avoiding crashes. A smart road lighting platform that instantly recognizes road conditions using various sensors and provides appropriate traffic safety information has therefore been developed. This study analyzes the short-term traffic safety improvement effects of the smart road lighting's tunnel traffic safety information service using surrogate safety measures (SSM). Individual driving behavior was investigated by applying the vehicle trajectory data collected with RADAR in the Anin Avalanche 1 and 2 tunnel sections in Gangneung. Comparing accumulated speeding, speed variation, time-to-collision, and deceleration rate to avoid the crash before and after providing traffic safety information, all SSMs showed significant improvement, indicating that the tunnel traffic safety information service is beneficial in improving traffic safety. Analyzing potential crash risk in the subdivided tunnel and access road sections revealed that providing traffic safety information reduced the probability of traffic accidents in most segments. The results of this study will be valuable for analyzing the short-term quantitative effects of traffic safety information services.

Stochastic Self-similarity Analysis and Visualization of Earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula (한반도에서 발생한 지진의 통계적 자기 유사성 분석 및 시각화)

  • JaeMin Hwang;Jiyoung Lim;Hae-Duck J. Jeong
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
    • /
    • v.12 no.11
    • /
    • pp.493-504
    • /
    • 2023
  • The Republic of Korea is located far from the boundary of the earthquake plate, and the intra-plate earthquake occurring in these areas is generally small in size and less frequent than the interplate earthquake. Nevertheless, as a result of investigating and analyzing earthquakes that occurred on the Korean Peninsula between the past two years and 1904 and earthquakes that occurred after observing recent earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula, it was found that of a magnitude of 9. In this paper, the Korean Peninsula Historical Earthquake Record (2 years to 1904) published by the National Meteorological Research Institute is used to analyze the relationship between earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. In addition, the problem solved through this paper was the first to investigate the relationship between earthquake data occurring on the Korean Peninsula and statistical self-similarity. As a result of measuring the degree of self-similarity of earthquakes on the Korean Peninsula using three quantitative estimation methods, the self-similarity parameter H value (0.5 < H < 1) was found to be above 0.8 on average, indicating a high degree of self-similarity. And through graph visualization, it can be easily figured out in which region earthquakes occur most often, and it is expected that it can be used in the development of a prediction system that can predict damage in the event of an earthquake in the future and minimize damage to property and people, as well as in earthquake data analysis and modeling research. Based on the findings of this study, the self-similar process is expected to help understand the patterns and statistical characteristics of seismic activities, group and classify similar seismic events, and be used for prediction of seismic activities, seismic risk assessments, and seismic engineering.

Correlations between the group velocity of time-reversed Lamb waves and cortical bone properties in tibial cortical bone in vivo (생체 내 경골의 피질골에서 시간역전 램파의 군속도와 피질골 특성 사이의 상관관계)

  • Kang Il Lee
    • The Journal of the Acoustical Society of Korea
    • /
    • v.42 no.6
    • /
    • pp.559-564
    • /
    • 2023
  • It is known that change in the bone strength of cortical bone constituting the outer shell of long bones such as the tibia or radius due to aging and osteoporosis is a risk factor for fracture. In this study, the group velocity of time-reversed Lamb waves generated in tibial cortical bone in vivo was measured using a time reversal method, and the correlations of the group velocity with the cortical bone thickness (cTh) and cortical bone mineral density (cBMD) closely related to the bone strength were investigated. It was found that the group velocity of time-reversed Lamb waves measured in the right tibia of 7 subjects showed a very high correlation, r = 0.90 (p < 0.0001), with the cTh and a relatively low correlation, r = 0.69 (p < 0.0001), with the cBMD. A limitation of this in vivo study is that the group velocity of time-reversed Lamb waves was measured for a normal group consisting of only 7 healthy adults. In the future, if the clinical usefulness of the time-reversed Lamb wave is demonstrated by follow-up studies on normal and osteoporotic groups consisting of a large number of healthy adults and osteoporotic patients, respectively, it is expected to improve the reliability of quantitative ultrasound technology for osteoporosis diagnosis. In addition, it is necessary to expand the skeletal site for measuring the group velocity of time-reversed Lamb waves not only to the tibia but also to the femur or radius.

TAGS: Text Augmentation with Generation and Selection (생성-선정을 통한 텍스트 증강 프레임워크)

  • Kim Kyung Min;Dong Hwan Kim;Seongung Jo;Heung-Seon Oh;Myeong-Ha Hwang
    • KIPS Transactions on Software and Data Engineering
    • /
    • v.12 no.10
    • /
    • pp.455-460
    • /
    • 2023
  • Text augmentation is a methodology that creates new augmented texts by transforming or generating original texts for the purpose of improving the performance of NLP models. However existing text augmentation techniques have limitations such as lack of expressive diversity semantic distortion and limited number of augmented texts. Recently text augmentation using large language models and few-shot learning can overcome these limitations but there is also a risk of noise generation due to incorrect generation. In this paper, we propose a text augmentation method called TAGS that generates multiple candidate texts and selects the appropriate text as the augmented text. TAGS generates various expressions using few-shot learning while effectively selecting suitable data even with a small amount of original text by using contrastive learning and similarity comparison. We applied this method to task-oriented chatbot data and achieved more than sixty times quantitative improvement. We also analyzed the generated texts to confirm that they produced semantically and expressively diverse texts compared to the original texts. Moreover, we trained and evaluated a classification model using the augmented texts and showed that it improved the performance by more than 0.1915, confirming that it helps to improve the actual model performance.

Research Trends in Neonatal Simulation Practice Education of Nursing Students (간호대학생의 신생아 시뮬레이션 실습교육 연구동향(2011년~2023년))

  • Sung Hee Choi;Sang Hee Kim;Sun Hui Kim
    • The Journal of the Convergence on Culture Technology
    • /
    • v.10 no.2
    • /
    • pp.215-224
    • /
    • 2024
  • The purpose of this study was to examine research trends related to neonatal simulation practice education of domestic nursing students. It was a descriptive research study. For literature collection, a total of 17 journals were selected as a result of a search using ('Newborn Simulation') AND ('Nursing Student' OR 'Nursing College Student' OR 'Student Nurse') in 6 domestic electronic databases. The research results showed that it started with 7 journals from 2011 to 2015 and decreased slightly to 5 journals from 2016 to 2020 and 5 journals from 2021 to 2023. The research design was mostly quantitative with a total of 16 journals(94%). Among them, there were 15 intervention journals(88%), 1 descriptive research journals(6%), and 1 mixed method journals(6%). The key topics in simulation practice were high-risk newborns with 9 journals(52%), respiratory distress syndrome in neonatal intensive care units appeared with 3 journals(18%), neonatal care with 3 journals(18%), normal newborn care with 1 journal(6%), and neonatal emergency airway care with 1 journals(6%). The main outcome variables were clinical performance, accounting for 5 journals(19.2%), followed by practice satisfaction 3 journals(11.5%). clinical competency and practice satisfaction were found to have significant positive effects. In conclusion, various research methods are required, such as expansion of nursing students' neonatal simulation practice education, repeated research, and qualitative research.