• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.5
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• pp.335-346
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• 2017

This study generated the radar-based forecasted rainfall using spatial-scale decomposition method (SCDM) and evaluated the hydrological applicability with forecasted rainfall by KMA (MAPLE, KONOS) in terms of urban flood forecasting. SCDM is to separate the small-scale field (convective cell) and large-scale field (straitform cell) from radar rainfield. And each separated field is forecasted by translation model and storm tracker nowcasting model for improvement of QPF accuracy. As the evaluated results of various QPF for three rainfall events in Seoul and Metropolitan area, proposed method showed better prediction accuracy than MAPLE and KONOS considering the simplicity of the methodology. In addition, this study assessed the urban hydrological applicability for Gangnam basin. As the results, KONOS simulated the peak of water depth more accurately than MAPLE and SCDM, however cannot simulated the timeseries pattern of water depth. In the case of SCDM, the quantitative error was larger than observed water depth, but the simulated pattern was similar to observation. The SCDM will be useful information for flood forecasting if quantitative accuracy is improved through the adjustment technique and blending with NWP.

• The Korean Journal of Quaternary Research
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• v.19 no.2
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• pp.74-79
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• 2005

Recently, several attempts have been made to provide reasonable information on unusual severe weather phenomena such as tolerant heavy rains and very wild typhoons. Quantitative precipitation forecasts and probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs and PQPFs, respectively) might be one of the most promising methodologies for early warning on the flesh floods because those diagnostic precipitation models require less computational resources than fine-mesh full-dynamics non-hydrostatic mesoscale model. The diagnostic rainfall model used in this study is the named QPM(Quantitative Precipitation Model), which calculates the rainfall by considering the effect of small-scale topography which is not treated in the mesoscale model. We examine the capability of probabilistic diagnostic rainfall model in terms of how well represented the observed several rainfall events and what is the most optimistic resolution of the mesoscale model in which diagnostic rainfall model is nested. Also, we examine the integration time to provide reasonable fine-mesh rainfall information. When we apply this QPM directly to 27 km mesh meso-scale model (called as M27-Q3), it takes about 15 min. while it takes about 87 min. to get the same resolution precipitation information with full dynamic downscaling method (called M27-9-3). The quality of precipitation forecast by M27-Q3 is quite comparable with the results of M27-9-3 with reasonable threshold value for precipitation. Based on a series of examination we may conclude that the proosed QPM has a capability to provide fine-mesh rainfall information in terms of time and accuracy compared to full dynamical fine-mesh meso-scale model.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2018.05a
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• pp.155-155
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• 2018

Uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled meteorological and hydrological model is arisen from various sources, especially the uncertainty comes from the inaccuracy of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). In order to improve the capability of flood forecast, the uncertainty estimation and mitigation are required to perform. This study is conducted to investigate and reduce such uncertainty. First, ensemble QPFs are generated by using Monte - Carlo simulation, then each ensemble member is forced as input for a hydrological model to obtain ensemble streamflow prediction. Likelihood measures are evaluated to identify feasible member. These members are retained to define upper and lower limits of the uncertainty interval and assess the uncertainty. To mitigate the uncertainty for very short lead time, a blending method, which merges the ensemble QPFs with radar-based rainfall prediction considering both qualitative and quantitative skills, is proposed. Finally, blending bias ratios, which are estimated from previous time step, are used to update the members over total lead time. The proposed method is verified for the two flood events in 2013 and 2016 in the Yeonguol and Soyang watersheds that are located in the Han River basin, South Korea. The uncertainty in flood forecasting using a coupled Local Data Assimilation and Prediction System (LDAPS) and Sejong University Rainfall - Runoff (SURR) model is investigated and then mitigated by blending the generated ensemble LDAPS members with radar-based rainfall prediction that uses McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by Lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE). The results show that the uncertainty of flood forecasting using the coupled model increases when the lead time is longer. The mitigation method indicates its effectiveness for mitigating the uncertainty with the increases of the percentage of feasible member (POFM) and the ratio of the number of observations that fall into the uncertainty interval (p-factor).

• Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Information and Commucation Sciences Conference
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• 2021.05a
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• pp.43-45
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• 2021

The short-term quantitative precipitation prediction (QPF) system is important socially and economically to prevent damage from severe weather. Recently, many studies for short-term QPF model applying the Deep Neural Network (DNN) has been conducted. These studies require the sophisticated pre-processing because the mistreatment of various and vast meteorological data sets leads to lower performance of QPF. Especially, for more accurate prediction of the non-linear trends in precipitation, the dataset needs to be carefully handled based on the physical and dynamical understands the data. Thereby, this paper proposes the following approaches: i) refining and combining major factors (weather radar, terrain, air temperature, and so on) related to precipitation development in order to construct training data for pattern analysis of precipitation; ii) producing predicted precipitation fields based on Convolutional with ConvLSTM. The proposed algorithm was evaluated by rainfall events in 2020. It is outperformed in the magnitude and strength of precipitation, and clearly predicted non-linear pattern of precipitation. The algorithm can be useful as a forecasting tool for preventing severe weather.

• Journal of the Korean earth science society
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• v.44 no.6
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• pp.557-577
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• 2023

This study defines non-precipitation information as areas with weak precipitation or cloud particles that radar cannot detect due to weak returned signals, and suggests methods for its utilization in data assimilation. Previous studies have demonstrated that assimilating radar data from precipitation echoes can produce precipitation in model analysis and improve subsequent precipitation forecast. However, this study also recognizes the non-precipitation information as valuable observation and seeks to assimilate it to suppress spurious precipitation in the model analysis and forecast. To incorporate non-precipitation information into data assimilation, we propose observation operators that convert radar non-precipitation information into hydrometeor mixing ratios and relative humidity for the Weather Research and Forecasting Data Assimilation system (WRFDA). We also suggest a preprocessing method for radar non-precipitation information. A single-observation experiment indicates that assimilating non-precipitation information fosters an environment conducive to inhibiting convection by lowering temperature and humidity. Subsequently, we investigate the impact of assimilating non-precipitation information to a real case on July 23, 2013, by performing a subsequent 9-hour forecast. The experiment that assimilates radar non-precipitation information improves the model's precipitation forecasts by showing an increase in the Fractional Skill Score (FSS) and a decrease in the False Alarm Ratio (FAR) compared to experiments in which do not assimilate non-precipitation information.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2002.05a
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• pp.43-50
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• 2002

Accurate quantitative forecasting of rainfall for basins with a short response time is essential to predict streamflow and flash floods. Previously, neural networks were used to develop a Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) model that highly improved forecasting skill at specific locations in Pennsylvania, using both Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output and rainfall and radiosonde data. The objective of this study was to improve an existing artificial neural network model and incorporate the evolving structure and frequency of intense weather systems in the mid-Atlantic region of the United States for improved flood forecasting. Besides using radiosonde and rainfall data, the model also used the satellite-derived characteristics of storm systems such as tropical cyclones, mesoscale convective complex systems and convective cloud clusters as input. The convective classification and tracking system (CCATS) was used to identify and quantify storm properties such as life time, area, eccentricity, and track. As in standard expert prediction systems, the fundamental structure of the neural network model was learned from the hydroclimatology of the relationships between weather system, rainfall production and streamflow response in the study area. The new Quantitative Flood Forecasting (QFF) model was applied to predict streamflow peaks with lead-times of 18 and 24 hours over a five year period in 4 watersheds on the leeward side of the Appalachian mountains in the mid-Atlantic region. Threat scores consistently above .6 and close to 0.8 ∼ 0.9 were obtained fur 18 hour lead-time forecasts, and skill scores of at least 4％ and up to 6％ were attained for the 24 hour lead-time forecasts. This work demonstrates that multisensor data cast into an expert information system such as neural networks, if built upon scientific understanding of regional hydrometeorology, can lead to significant gains in the forecast skill of extreme rainfall and associated floods. In particular, this study validates our hypothesis that accurate and extended flood forecast lead-times can be attained by taking into consideration the synoptic evolution of atmospheric conditions extracted from the analysis of large-area remotely sensed imagery While physically-based numerical weather prediction and river routing models cannot accurately depict complex natural non-linear processes, and thus have difficulty in simulating extreme events such as heavy rainfall and floods, data-driven approaches should be viewed as a strong alternative in operational hydrology. This is especially more pertinent at a time when the diversity of sensors in satellites and ground-based operational weather monitoring systems provide large volumes of data on a real-time basis.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2022.05a
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• pp.63-63
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• 2022

기상 예보자료는 발생 가능한 재난의 예방 및 대비 차원에서 매우 중요한 자료로 활용되고 있다. 우리나라 기상청에서는 동네예보를 통해 5km 공간해상도의 1시간 간격 초단기예보와, 6시간 간격 정량강우예보(Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, QPF)의 단기예보 정보를 제공하고 있다. 그러나 이와 같은 예보자료는 강우량의 시·공간변화가 큰 집중호우와 같은 기상자료를 활용한 수문학적인 해석에는 한계가 있다. 예보자료를 수문학에 활용하기 위한 시·공간적 해상도 개선뿐만 아니라 방대한 기상 및 기후 자료의 예측성능을 개선하기 위한 다양한 연구가 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 기상청이 제공하는 지역 앙상블 예측 시스템(Local ENsemble prediction System, LENS)와 종관기상관측시스템(ASOS) 및 방재기상관측시스템(AWS) 관측 데이터 및 동네예보에 기계학습 방법을 적용하여 수문학적 정량적 강수량 예측(Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, HQPF) 정보를 생산하였다. 전처리 과정을 통해 모든 데이터의 시간해상도와 공간해상도를 동일한 해상도로 변환하였으며, 예측 변수의 인자 분석을 통해 기계학습의 예측 변수를 도출하였다. 기계학습 방법으로는 처리속도와 확장성을 고려하여 XGBoost(eXtreme Gradient Boosting) 방식을 적용하였으며, 집중호우에서의 예측정확도를 높이기 위해 확률매칭(PM) 방식을 적용하였다. 생산된 HQPF의 성능을 평가하기 위해 2020년에 발생한 14건의 호우 사상을 대상으로 태풍형과 비태풍형으로 구분하여 검증을 수행하였다.

• Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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• v.32 no.2
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• pp.155-169
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• 2016

In this study, we developed a multi-sensor blending short-term rainfall forecasting technique using radar and satellite data during extreme rainfall occurrences in Busan and Gyeongnam region in August 2014. The Tropical Z-R relationship ($Z=32R^{1.65}$) has applied as a optimal radar Z-R relation, which is confirmed that the accuracy is improved during 20mm/h heavy rainfall. In addition, the multi-sensor blending technique has applied using radar and COMS (Communication, Ocean and Meteorological Satellite) data for quantitative precipitation estimation. The very-short-term rainfall forecasting performance was improved in 60 mm/h or more of the strong heavy rainfall events by multi-sensor blending. AWS (Automatic Weather System) and MAPLE data were used for verification of rainfall prediction accuracy. The results have ensured about 50% or more in accuracy of heavy rainfall prediction for 1-hour before rainfall prediction, which are correlations of 10-minute lead time have 0.80 to 0.53, and root mean square errors have 3.99 mm/h to 6.43 mm/h. Through this study, utilizing of multi-sensor blending techniques using radar and satellite data are possible to provide that would be more reliable very-short-term rainfall forecasting data. Further we need ongoing case studies and prediction and estimation of quantitative precipitation by multi-sensor blending is required as well as improving the satellite rainfall estimation algorithm.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.8
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• pp.563-577
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• 2017

As the uncertainty of precipitation increases due to climate change, seasonal forecasting and the use of weather forecasts become essential for efficient water resources management. In this study, the categorical probabilistic long-term forecasts implemented by KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) since June 2014 was evaluated using assessment indicators of Hit Rate, Reliability Diagram, and Relative Operating Curve (ROC) and a technique for obtaining quantitative precipitation estimates based on probabilistic forecasts was proposed. The probabilistic long-term forecasts showed its maximum predictability of 48% and the quantified precipitation estimates were closely matched with actual observations; maximum correlation coefficient (R) in predictability evaluation for 100% accurate and actual weather forecasts were 0.98 and 0.71, respectively. A precipitation quantification approach utilizing probabilistic forecasts proposed in this study is expected to enable water management considering the uncertainty of precipitation. This method is also expected to be a useful tool for supporting decision-making in the long-term planning for water resources management and reservoir operations.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.15 no.4
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• pp.87-98
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• 2022

In recent years, frequent localized heavy rainfalls, which have a lot of rainfall in a short period of time, have been increasingly causing flooding damages. To prevent damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, Hydrological Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (HQPF) was developed using the Local ENsemble prediction System (LENS) provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) and Machine Learning and Probability Matching (PM) techniques using Digital forecast data. HQPF is produced as information on the impact of heavy rainfall to prepare for flooding damage caused by localized heavy rainfalls, but there is a tendency to overestimate the low rainfall intensity. In this study, we improved HQPF by expanding the period of machine learning data, analyzing ensemble techniques, and changing the process of Probability Matching (PM) techniques to improve predictive accuracy and over-predictive propensity of HQPF. In order to evaluate the predictive performance of the improved HQPF, we performed the predictive performance verification on heavy rainfall cases caused by the Changma front from August 27, 2021 to September 3, 2021. We found that the improved HQPF showed a significantly improved prediction accuracy for rainfall below 10 mm, as well as the over-prediction tendency, such as predicting the likelihood of occurrence and rainfall area similar to observation.