• Journal of Veterinary Clinics
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• v.28 no.1
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• pp.101-107
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• 2011

This study aimed to determine dose-response (DR) curve of avian influenza (AI) virus to predict the probability of illness or adverse health effects that may result from exposure to a pathogenic microorganism in a quantitative microbial risk assessment. To determine the parametric DR relationship of several strains of AI virus, 7 feeding trial data sets challenging humans (5 sets) and chickens (2 sets) for strains of H3N2 (4 sets), H5N1 (2 sets) and H1N1 (1 set) from the published literatures. Except for one data set (study with intra-tracheal inoculation for data set no. 6), all were obtained from the studies with intranasal inoculation. The data were analyzed using three types of DR model as the basis of heterogeneity in infectivity of AI strains in humans and chickens: exponential, beta-binomial and beta-Poisson. We fitted to the data using maximum likelihood estimation to get the parameter estimates of each model. The alpha and beta values of the beta-Poisson DR model ranged 0.06-0.19 and 1.7-48.8, respectively for H3N2 strain. Corresponding values for H5N1 ranged 0.464-0.563 and 97.3-99.4, respectively. For H1N1 the parameter values were 0.103 and 12.7, respectively. Using the exponential model, r (infectivity parameter) ranged from $1.6{\times}10^{-8}$ to $1.2{\times}10^{-5}$ for H3N2 and from $7.5{\times}10^{-3}$ to $4.0{\times}10^{-2}$ for H5N1, while the value was $1.6{\times}10^{-8}$ for H1N1. The beta-Poisson DR model provided the best fit to five of 7 data sets tested, and the estimated parameter values in betabinomial model were very close to those of beta-Poisson. Our study indicated that beta-binomial or beta-Poisson model could be the choice for DR modeling of AI, even though DR relationship varied depending on the virus strains studied, as indicated in prior studies. Further DR modeling should be conducted to quantify the differences among AI virus strains.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.35 no.1
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• pp.51-59
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• 2020

This study evalutated the risk of foodborne illness from Vibrio spp. (Vibrio vulnificus and Vibrio cholerae) through sea squirt consumption. The prevalence of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae in sea squirt was evaluated, and the predictive models to describe the kinetic behavior of the Vibrio in sea squirt were developed. Distribution temperatures and times were collected, and they were fitted to probabilistic distributions to determine the appropriate distributions. The raw data from the Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2016 were used to estimate the consumption rates and amount of sea squirt. In the hazard characterization, the Beta-Poisson model for V. vulnificus and V. cholerae infection was used. With the collected data, a simulation model was prepared and it was run with @RISK to estimate probabilities of foodborne illness by pathogenic Vibrio spp. through sea squirt consumption. Among 101 sea squirt samples, there were no V. vulnificus positive samples, but V. cholerae was detected in one sample. The developed predictive models described the fates of Vibrio spp. in sea squirt during distribution and storage, appropriately shown as 0.815-0.907 of R² and 0.28 of RMSE. The consumption rate of sea squirt was 0.26%, and the daily consumption amount was 68.84 g per person. The Beta-Poisson model [P=1-(1+Dose/β)^-α] was selected as a dose-response model. With these data, a simulation model was developed, and the risks of V. vulnificus and V. cholerae foodborne illness from sea squirt consumption were 2.66×10^-15, and 1.02×10^-12, respectively. These results suggest that the risk of pathogenic Vibrio spp. in sea squirt could be considered low in Korea.

• Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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• v.19 no.1
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• pp.49-54
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• 2004

The prevention of infectious disease from contaminated foods is very important in public health. Quantitative microbial risk assessment has been used in advance countries to achieve the safety of public health against hazardous microbial causing contaminated foods. This study was conducted to estimate maximum edible time without producing enterotoxin from Staphylococcus aureus in Kimbap selling at different domestic store using Food MicroModel and monitoring data and to compute maximum edible time by temperature with 99th percentile safety probability based on only restaurant data. For estimating maximum edible time, model operation conditions like reaching time at 2 ${\times}$ 10$^{7}$ , which enterotoxin was known as producing point from S. aureus, temperature of 28∼3$0^{\circ}C$, pH 5.2, NaCl 0.22%, aw(water activity) 0.99, and intaking one serving size of 171g in Kimbap were considered. Estimated maximum edible times by regarding outdoor temperature in summer were 3.9∼4.6 hrs in restaurant, 6.7∼7.9 hrs in department store and 7.4∼8.7 hrs in convenient store. Based on restaurant data, estimated maximum edible times with 99th percentile safety probability by temperature were 1.9 hrs in 3$0^{\circ}C$ and 17.7 hrs in 15$^{\circ}C$.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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• v.44 no.12
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• pp.1895-1904
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• 2015

Foodborne illness associated with food service establishments is an important food safety issue in Korea. In this study, foodborne pathogens (Bacillus cereus, Clostridium perfringens, Escherichia coli, pathogenic Escherichia coli, Listeria monocytogenes, Salmonella spp., Staphylococcus aureus, and Vibrio parahaemolyticus) and hygiene indicator organisms [total viable cell counts (TVC), coliforms] were analyzed for food and environmental samples from foodservice establishments at schools in Gyeonggi province. Virulence factors and antimicrobial resistance of detected foodborne pathogens were also characterized. A total of 179 samples, including food (n=66), utensil (n=68), and environmental samples (n=45), were collected from eight food service establishments at schools in Gyeonggi province. Average contamination levels of TVC for foods (including raw materials) and environmental samples were 4.7 and 4.0 log CFU/g, respectively. Average contamination levels of coliforms were 2.7 and 4.0 log CFU/g for foods and environmental swab samples, respectively. B. cereus contamination was detected in food samples with an average of 2.1 log CFU/g. E. coli was detected only in raw materials, and S. aureus was positive in raw materials as well as environmental swab samples. Other foodborne pathogens were not detected in all samples. The entire B. cereus isolates possessed at least one of the diarrheal toxin genes (hblACD, nheABC, entFM, and cytK enterotoxin gene). However, ces gene encoding emetic toxin was not detected in B. cereus isolates. S. aureus isolates (n=16) contained at least one or more of the tested enterotoxin genes, except for tst gene. For E. coli and S. aureus, 92.7% and 37.5% of the isolates were susceptible against 16 and 19 antimicrobials, respectively. The analyzed microbial hazards could provide useful information for quantitative microbial risk assessment and food safety management system to control foodborne illness outbreaks in food service establishments.