• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative Estimation

Search Result 799, Processing Time 0.027 seconds

Estimation of Post Evaluation Index of Natural Disaster Prevention Projects using Structure Equation Modeling (구조방정식모델을 이용한 자연재해예방사업의 사후 평가 지수 산정)

  • Heo, Bo Young;Song, Jai Woo;Yoon, Sei Eui;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
    • /
    • v.34 no.6
    • /
    • pp.1807-1814
    • /
    • 2014
  • Natural disaster has been hard to prevent the occurrence of itself, thus in order to reduce the economic damages and loss casualties, it is important to be prepared in cases that the disasters should occur in advance. Interest of the related project to prevent various natural disasters has been grown along with an investment in Korea. Along with this movement, when investments related to natural disaster prevention projects were built on, the post evaluation that can verify the ripple effects of those investments on the community should be emerging as an essential task. For evaluating the effects of public investment projects such as natural disaster prevention projects in this study, the related researches would continue through qualitative analyses, for example, cost-benefit analysis. Even the qualitative analysis alone cannot fully explain the effects of those projects, the diverse methods of analyzing and evaluating those effects might not have been presented in those fields. For the post evaluation of natural disaster prevention projects through the qualitative analysis, this study derived subjects that had effects on the post evaluation of natural disaster prevention projects. Also, employing the structural equation modeling (SEM), the causation between post evaluation subjects and the effects of projects were quantitatively analyzed, and the weighting factors of evaluation items were calculated respectively. Based on these results, post evaluation index formula was proposed for the natural disaster prevention projects in Korea.

Estimation of Critical Chloride Content for Corrosion of Reinforcing Steel in Concrete by Field Exposure Experiment (현장 폭로실험에 의한 콘크리트 중 철근의 부식 임계 염화물량 평가)

  • Yu, Kyung-Geun;Bae, Su-Ho;Park, Jae-Im;Lee, Kwang-Myong;Kim, Jee-Sang
    • Proceedings of the Korea Concrete Institute Conference
    • /
    • 2008.04a
    • /
    • pp.585-588
    • /
    • 2008
  • To predict the service life of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride environment, quantitative measures of material properties such as the critical chloride content for corrosion in concrete and the diffusion coefficient of chloride ions of concrete and the surface chloride content of the concrete are essential. However, it should be noted that they are influenced by several factors such as concrete mix proportions, cement type, and environmental conditions, etc. Thus, the purpose of this research is to estimate more actually the critical chloride content for corrosion of the reinforcing steel in concrete by field exposure experiment. For this purpose, the prism concrete test specimens were made for water-cement(W/C) ratios of 31%, 42%, 50%, and 70%, and then the field exposure experiment for them were conducted at Youngduk of the east coast for about 3 years. During the test, corrosion monitoring by half cell potential method was carried out to detect the time to initiation of corrosion for test specimens and its chloride content was evaluated by breaking the concrete test specimens when corrosion of the reinforcing steel in concrete was perceived. It was observed from the test results that the critical chloride content for corrosion of reinforcing steel in concrete would be dependent on W/C ratio and almost irrespective of concrete cover.

  • PDF

The Estimation of Succession Index by Community Types in the Natural Deciduous Forest of Mt. Jumbong (점봉산 일대 천연활엽수림의 군집 유형별 천이지수 추정)

  • Jin, Guang Ze;Kim, Ji Hong
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
    • /
    • v.95 no.6
    • /
    • pp.723-728
    • /
    • 2006
  • Since the forest succession is changing process in the structure and function of a forest for the long period of time, the objectivity of the process could be improved through the development of model or statistical methodology. This study was carried out to estimate succession index based on climax index and species composition parameters, thereupon to compare the succession index with life form and species diversity so as to grasp the information of quantitative successional process for the six community types in the natural deciduous forest of Mt. Jumbong area. The results indicated that Quercus mongolica-Tilia amurensis community had the greatest succession index of 67.5, followed by Abies holophylla-Fraxinus mandshurica community with 67.4. Juglans mandshurica-Cornus controversa community was recorded the smallest value of 60.5. The succession index of overstory tended to increase considerably at the stage of steady state for all community types except Quercus mongolica-Tilia amurensis community. However, The index of midstory hardly varied as the forest succession would progress for all community types. The succession index was negatively correlated to wind-water dispersion type of life form and positively to animal dispersion type at the 5% probability level. On the other hand, the index was not significantly correlated to the species richness and Shannon's species diversity index.

A Study on the Estimation of Stability of Fill Dam by Long-term Electrical Resistivity Monitoring (장주기 전기비저항 모니터링 기법을 이용한 필댐의 안정성 평가)

  • Kim, Gi-Ho;Lim, Heui-Dae;Ahn, Hee-Yoon
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.29 no.5
    • /
    • pp.53-64
    • /
    • 2013
  • Resistivity monitoring is based on the fact that a change in the porosity leads to the changes in water content and fine particles, which alter the electrical resistivity. At every embankment dam, internal erosion always occurs as time passes. The internal erosion generally develops into piping over a long time by backward erosion and concentrated leak, and finally leads to dam failure. Resistivity is known to be very sensitive to the changes in porosity in embankment dams. Thus resistivity monitoring is a reasonable method to find out the leakage zone. However, resistivity is strongly influenced by seasonal variation of temperature, TDS of reservoir water and water level. In this paper. we first installed electrodes permanently at the center of the crest. The electrical resistivity monitoring data was acquired every 6 hours from Apr. 3, 2011 to July. 31, 2012. To analyze the characteristics of monitoring data, each resistivity data was calculated from up to 2,950 data sets. The result indicated a seasonal resistivity variation due to related temperature. Finally, a quantitative method to estimate porosities of the embankment dam from the resistivity monitoring data was analyzed. The applicability and reliability were verified and the importance of electrical resistivity monitoring for obtaining reliable result was emphasized.

An ELISA-on-a-Chip Biosensor System for Early Screening of Listeria monocytogenes in Contaminated Food Products

  • Seo, Sung-Min;Cho, Il-Hoon;Kim, Joo-Ho;Jeon, Jin-Woo;Oh, Eun-Gyoung;Yu, Hong-Sik;Shin, Soon-Bum;Lee, Hee-Jung;Paek, Se-Hwan
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
    • /
    • v.30 no.12
    • /
    • pp.2993-2998
    • /
    • 2009
  • An enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA)-on-a-chip (EOC) biosensor combined with cell concentration technology based on immuno-magnetic separation (IMS) was investigated for use as a potential tool for early screening of Listeria monocytogenes (L. monocytogenes) in food products. The target analyte is a well-known pathogenic foodborne microorganism and outbreaks of the food poisoning typically occur due to contamination of normal food products. Thus, the aim of this study was to develop a rapid and reliable sensor that could be utilized on a daily basis to test food products for the presence of this pathogenic microorganism. The sensor was optimized to provide a high detection capability (e.g., 5.9 ${\times}\;10^3$ cells/mL) and, to eventually minimize cultivation time. The cell density was condensed using IMS prior to analysis. Since the concentration rate of IMS was greater than 100-fold, this combination resulted in a detection limit of 54 cells/mL. The EOC-IMS coupled analytical system was then applied to a real sample test of fish intestines. The system was able to detect L. monocytogenes at a concentration of 2.4 CFU/g after pre-enrichment for 6 h from the onset of cell cultivation. This may allow us to monitor the target analyte at a concentration less than 1 CFU/g within a 9 h-cultivation provided a doubling time of 40 min is typically maintained. Based on this estimation, the EOC-IMS system can screen and detect the presence of this microorganism in food products almost within working hours.

Detection of Buried Objects and Imaging of Subsurface Resistivity Structure using Loop-Loop EM Methods (소형루프 전자탐사법을 이용한 매설물 탐지 및 지하 전기비저항 영상화)

  • Seol Soon Jee;Song Yoonho;Cho Seong-Jun;Son Jeong-Sul;Chung Seung-Hwan
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
    • /
    • v.5 no.4
    • /
    • pp.309-315
    • /
    • 2002
  • Conventional electromagnetic (EM) method using small loops as a source and receiver has been used in detection of conductive buried objects like a metal detector or in qualitative estimation of the subsurface conductivity variation. Recently, however, since detection of buried objects and imaging of the subsurface conductivity distribution in a relatively conductive area are in a high demand for environmental and engineering purposes, the quantitative interpretation technique of EM data is actively studied. In this regard, we introduce a brief principle of EM survey and show an example of the detection of buried conductive material and imaging of the subsurface conductivity distribution based on data measured at a test survey area. Through this study, we show that multi-frequency EM surveys using small loops may be a good solution to give quick and detail information of subsurface in a conductive survey area.

Estimation and Assessment of Future Design Rainfall from Non-stationary Rainfall Frequency Analysis using Separation Method (호우분리기법을 적용한 비정상성 빈도해석의 미래확률강우량 산정 및 평가)

  • Son, Chan-Young;Lee, Bo-Ram;Choi, Ji-Hyeok;Moon, Young-Il
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.48 no.6
    • /
    • pp.451-461
    • /
    • 2015
  • This study aimed to estimate the future design rainfall through a non-stationary frequency analysis using the rainfall separation technique. First, we classified rainfall in the Korean Peninsula into local downpour and TC-induced rainfall through rainfall separation technique based on the path and size of a typhoon. Furthermore, we performed the analysis of regional rainfall characteristics and trends. In addition, we estimated the future design rainfall through a non-stationary frequency analysis using Gumbel distribution and carried out its quantitative comparison and evaluation. The results of the analysis suggest that the increase and decrease rate of rainfall in the Korean Peninsula were different and the increasing and decreasing tendencies were mutually contradictory at some points. In addition, a non-stationary frequency analysis was carried out by using the rainfall separation technique. The outcome of this analysis suggests that a relatively reasonable future design rainfall can be estimated. Comparing total rainfall with the future design rainfall, differences were found in the southern and eastern regions of the Korean peninsula. This means that climate change may have a different effect on the typhoon and local downpour. Thus, in the future, individual assessment of climate change impacts needs to be done through moisture separation. The results presented here are applicable in future hydraulic structures design, flood control measures related to climate change, and policy establishment.

Evaluation of High-Resolution QPE data for Urban Runoff Analysis (고해상도 QPE 자료의 도시유출해석 적용성 평가)

  • Choi, Sumin;Yoon, Seongsim;Lee, Byongju;Choi, Youngjean
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
    • /
    • v.48 no.9
    • /
    • pp.719-728
    • /
    • 2015
  • In this study, urban runoff analyses were performed using high resolution Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE), and variation of rainfall and runoff were analyzed to evaluate QPE data for urban runoff analysis. The five drainage districts (Seocho3, 4, 5, Yeoksam and Nonhyun) around Gangnam station were chosen as study area, the area is $7.4km^2$. Rainfall data from KMA AWS (34 stations), SKP AWS (156 stations) and Gwanduk radar were used for QPEs in Seoul area. Four types of QPE(QPE1: KMA AWS, QPE2: KMA+ SKP AWS, QPE3: Gwangduk radar, QPE4: QPE2+QPE3) of 6 events in July 2013 were generated by using Krigging and conditional merging. The temporal and spatial resolution of QPEs are 10 minutes and 250 m, respectively. The complex pipe network were treated as 773 manholes, 772 sub-drainage districts and 1,059 pipelines for urban runoff analysis as input data. QPE2 and QPE4 show spatial variation of rainfall by sub-drainage districts as 1.9 times bigger than QPE1. The peak runoff of QPE2 and QPE4 also show spatial variation as 6 times bigger than Gangnam and Seocho AWS. Thus, the spatial variation of rainfall and runoff could exist in small area such as this study area, and using high-resolution rainfall data is desirable for accurate urban runoff analysis.

Regional Assessment of Seismic Site Effects and Induced Vulnerable Area in Gyeonggi-do, South Korea, Using GIS (GIS 기반 경기도 광역영역의 부지지진응답 특성 및 연계 지진 취약지역 분석)

  • Kim, Han-Saem;Sun, Chang-Guk;Cho, Hyung-Ik;Nam, Jee-Hyun
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
    • /
    • v.34 no.5
    • /
    • pp.19-35
    • /
    • 2018
  • The necessity of predicting the spatial information of the site-specific seismic response, which is essential information for the comprehensive earthquake disaster countermeasures, is increasing for the mid-west urban areas where the earthquake-induced damages can be increased due to frequent occurrence of mid-scale earthquake such as 2016 Gyeongju Earthquake and 2017 Pohang Earthquake. Especially, researches on strategic securing of site survey datasets and understanding the site-specific site response characteristics were conducted for Gyeonggi-do, South Korea. In this study, a GIS-based framework for site-specific assessment of site response and induced vulnerable area in Gyeonggi-do, South Korea was proposed. Geo-Data based on GIS platform was constructed for regional estimation of geotechnical characteristics by collecting borehole and land coverage datasets. And the geo-spatial grid information was developed for deriving spatial distribution of geotechnical layer and site response parameters based on the optimization of the geostatistical interpolation method. Accordingly, base information for Improving earthquake preparedness measures was derived as seismic zonation map with administrative sub-units considering the quantitative site effect of Gyeonggi-do.

Estimation of the electricity demand function using a lagged dependent variable model (내생시차변수모형을 이용한 전력수요함수 추정)

  • Ahn, So-Yeon;Jin, Se-Jun;Yoo, Seung-Hoon
    • Journal of Energy Engineering
    • /
    • v.25 no.2
    • /
    • pp.37-44
    • /
    • 2016
  • The demand for electricity has a considerable impact on various energy sectors since electricity is generated from various energy sources. This paper attempts to estimate the electricity demand function and obtain some quantitative information on price and income elasticities of the demand. To this end, we apply a lagged dependent variable model to derive long-run as well as short-run elasticities using the time-series data over the period 1991-2014. Our dependent variable is annual electricity demand. The independent variables include constant term, real price of electricity, and real gross domestic product. The results show that the short-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are estimated to be -0.142 and 0.866, respectively. They are statistically significant at the 5% level. That is, the electricity demand is in-elastic with respect to price and income changes in the short-run. The long-run price and income elasticities of the electricity demand are calculated to be -0.210 and 1.287, respectively, which are also statistically meaningful at the 5% level. The electricity demand is still in-elastic with regard to price change in the long-run. However, the electricity demand is elastic regarding income change in the long-run. Therefore, this indicates that the effect of demand-side management policy through price-control is restrictive in both the short- and long-run. The growth in electricity demand following income growth is expected to be more remarkable in the long-run than in the short-run.