• Title/Summary/Keyword: Quantitative Estimation

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Reliability Analysis of a Quay Wall Constructed on the Deep-Cement-Mixed Ground(Part I: External Stability of the Improved Soil System) (심층혼합처리지반에 설치된 안벽의 신뢰성해석(Part I: 개량지반의 외부안정))

  • Huh, Jung-Won;Park, Ock-Joo;Kim, Young-Sang;Hur, Dong-Soo
    • Journal of Korean Society of Coastal and Ocean Engineers
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.79-87
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    • 2010
  • This is the first of the two papers dealing with reliability analyses for external and internal stability of a quay wall constructed on a special foundation. A new practical reliability analysis method is proposed in this paper to evaluate the quantitative risk associated with external stability of a quay wall constructed on the deep cement mixed ground. The method can consider uncertainties in various design variables. For the risk estimation to external stability of the improved soil-quay wall, three corresponding limit state functions of sliding, overturning and bearing capacity are fully defined by introducing concept of the secondary random variable. Three representative reliability methods, MVFOSM, FORM and MCS are then applied to evaluate the failure probabilities of the three limit state functions explicitly expressed in terms of the basic and secondary random variables. From the reliability analysis results, the failure probabilities obtained from the three approaches are very close to each other, and the sliding failure mode appears to be the most critical when the earthquake loading is under consideration.

Determination of the dietary lysine requirement by measuring plasma free lysine concentrations in rainbow trout Oncorhynchus mykiss after dorsal aorta cannulation

  • Yun, Hyeonho;Park, Gunjun;Ok, Imho;Katya, Kumar;Hung, Silas SO;Bai, Sungchul C.
    • Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.4.1-4.7
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    • 2016
  • This study evaluated the dietary lysine requirement by measuring the plasma free lysine concentrations in rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss after dorsal aorta cannulation. A basal diet containing 36.6 % crude protein (29.6 % crystalline amino acids mixture, 5 % casein and 2 % gelatin) was formulated to one of the seven L-amino acid based diets containing graded levels of lysine (0.72, 1.12, 1.52, 1.92, 2.32, 2.72 or 3.52 % dry diet). A total of 35 fish averaging $512{\pm}6.8g$ ($mean{\pm}SD$) were randomly distributed into seven groups with five fish in each group. After 48 h of feed deprivation, each group of fish was fed one of the experimental diets by intubation at 1 % body weight. Blood samples were taken at 0, 5 and 24 h after intubation. Post-prandial plasma free lysine concentrations (PPlys, 5 h after intubation) of fish fed diets containing ${\geq}2.32%$ lysine were higher than those of fish fed diets containing ${\leq}1.92%$ lysine. Post-absorptive free lysine concentrations (PAlys, 24 h after intubation) of fish fed diets containing 2.32 and 3.52 % lysine were higher than those of fish fed diets containing ${\leq}1.52%$ lysine. The brokenline regression analysis on the basis of PPlys and PAlys indicated that the lysine requirement of rainbow trout could be 2.34 and 2.20 % in diet. Therefore, these results strongly suggested that the dietary lysine requirement based on the broken-line model analyses of PPlys and PAlys could be greater than 2.20 % but less than 2.34 % (corresponding to be $6.01%{\leq},but{\leq}6.39%$ in dietary protein basis, respectively) in rainbow trout. Also, these results shown that the quantitative estimation of lysine requirement by using PPlys and PAlys could be an acceptable method in fish.

An Estimation of Generalized Cost for Transit Assignment (대중교통 통행배정을 위한 일반화비용 추정)

  • Son, Sang-Hun;Choe, Gi-Ju;Yu, Jeong-Hun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.2 s.95
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2007
  • This paper addressed the issue of a generalized cost model for transit assignment. The model composed of walk time, waiting time (including transfer waiting time), line-haul time, transfer walk time, and fare. The weights of each component were supposed to be calculated using the stated preference (SP) data, which were collected prudently in order to reflect reality. The marginal rate of substitution and wage rate were applied to calculate the weights. The results showed that the weight of walking time per in-vehicle travel time (IVTT) was 1.507, the weight of waiting time (per IVTT) was 1.749, that of transfer time (per IVTT) was 1.474, and that of fare (per IVTT) was 1.476 for trips between inner-city areas in Seoul. Weights for each component were identified as 1.871, 1.967, 1.015, and 0.857, respectively, for trips between Seoul and Gyeonggi. Statistical significance existed between two cases and each variable was also statistically significant. Transit assignment using the relative weights estimated in this study was implemented to analyze the travel index in a macroscopic and quantitative basis. The results showed that average total travel times were 30.23 minutes and 63.29 minutes and average generalized costs were 2,510 won and 3,880 won for trips between inner-city areas in Seoul and between Seoul and Gyeonggi, respectively.

A Study of sea Dike meterials loss due to Scouring and Consolidation Settlement During the Periond of Construction on Construction on the West Cost of Korea (서해암 방조제 공사 기간중 유실토량 측정시험)

  • 안재숙
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.2503-2519
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    • 1972
  • The studies were carried out to find the cause and the quantitative evaluation of sea dike materials loss which is occured during the period of construction works for the tideland reclamation projects on the west coast of Korea. Major subjects to studies were to establish the typical relationships between the tidal flow and the movement of dike materials, the tidal-flow and the erosion, the dike materials and the ratio of material movement(losses), construction methods and the ratio of materials movement (losses). Based on the above subjects, the studies were made for the purpose of obtain the following informations; (1) Collecting and evaluaing the data of dike material losses due to foundation settlement, from designed existing dikes on the west coast. (2) By the field investigation at A-San Sea Dike, Pyong Taek Project, the Comparison would be made by the relationships between the tide velocity and the movement of dike foundation under the natural conditions and the period of construction so that find out the relationship between the dike materials of foundation situation and settlements. With regard to the dike construction works, it is so difficult to calculate the exact quantity of material losses due to the foundation settlements. The major factors that affect the settlement losses of the dike materials are: (1) Topographical variation (2) Swepting the sectional area of dike by the tide velocity. (3) Dumping riprap to the outerside of dike during the period of construction works. (4) Sectional area losses by the cause of occurence of the new tide channels. (5) material losses by the heavy storms. (6) Consolidation settlement by the foundation weakness. (7) Material losses by the earth materials by tide flow. Most hi호 material losses were occured by the Consolidation settlement due to the foundation weakness, the maximum tide velocities due to decrease the cross sectional area of the gaps and erosion of foundation due to the range of tide, Inner and outerside of dike, or dike material loses due to the tide flow. Final conclusion would be obtained by the continuous measurement of consolidation settlement at the stage of final clusure of the dike. (It is scheduled to close on the end of 1972) However, intermediate conclusion can be introduced as follows: (1) The estimation of material(losses) during the period of construction works for the existing sea-dikes up to date were only empirical. The material losses at the general closure for design was estimated at 10% of the riprap, 20% of the earth materials, and 20% of the riprap, 40% of the earth materials at the final closure of the dike. The final closure estimated double quantity to the general closure, but it is still doubt. (2) The ratio of consolidation settlements was found smaller than the calculated quantity. It can be foreseen that settlement speeds is higher thom the calculated speeds. (3) The movement of dike foundation under the natural conditions were not so depends on the geological conditions of the foundation. (4) When the tide velocities was estimated 100 at the normal tide, it was estimated 125 at the high tide and 55 at the low tide. The tide velocities at the low tide shows apparently lower than the high tide and the higher velocities at the deep water depth.

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The Development and Application of Office Price Index for Benchmark in Seoul using Repeat Sales Model (반복매매모형을 활용한 서울시 오피스 벤치마크 가격지수 개발 및 시험적 적용 연구)

  • Ryu, Kang Min;Song, Ki Wook
    • Land and Housing Review
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    • v.11 no.2
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    • pp.33-46
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    • 2020
  • As the fastest growing office transaction volume in Korea, there's been a need for development of indicators to accurately diagnose the office capital market. The purpose of this paper is experimentally calculate to the office price index for effective benchmark indices in Seoul. The quantitative methodology used a Case-Shiller Repeat Sales Model (1991), based on actual multiple office transaction dataset with over minimum 1,653 ㎡ from Q3 1999 to 4Q 2019 in the case of 1,536 buildings within Seoul Metropolitan. In addition, the collected historical data and spatial statistical analysis tools were treated with the SAS 9.4 and ArcGIS 10.7 programs. The main empirical results of research are briefly summarized as follows; First, Seoul office price index was estimated to be 344.3 point (2001.1Q=100.0P) at the end of 2019, and has more than tripled over the past two decades. it means that the sales price of office per 3.3 ㎡ has consistently risen more than 12% every year since 2000, which is far above the indices for apartment housing index, announced by the MOLIT (2009). Second, between quarterly and annual office price index for the two-step estimation of the MIT Real Estate Research Center (MIT/CRE), T, L, AL variables have statistically significant coefficient (Beta) all of the mode l (p<0.01). Third, it was possible to produce a more stable office price index against the basic index by using the Moore-Penrose's pseoudo inverse technique at low transaction frequency. Fourth, as an lagging indicators, the office price index is closely related to key macroeconomic indicators, such as GDP(+), KOSPI(+), interest rates (5-year KTB, -). This facts indicate that long-term office investment tends to outperform other financial assets owing to high return and low risk pattern. In conclusion, these findings are practically meaningful to presenting an new office price index that increases accuracy and then attempting to preliminary applications for the case of Seoul. Moreover, it can provide sincerely useful benchmark about investing an office and predicting changes of the sales price among market participants (e.g. policy maker, investor, landlord, tenant, user) in the future.

Evaluation of Crystalline Silica Exposure Level by Industries in Korea (국내 업종별 결정형 유리규산 노출 평가)

  • Yeon, Dong-Eun;Choi, Sangjun
    • Journal of Korean Society of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.398-422
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    • 2017
  • Objectives: The major aim of this study is to construct the database of retrospective exposure assessment for crystalline silica through reviews of literatures in South Korea. Methods: Airborne concentrations of crystalline silica were collected using an academic information search engine, Research Information Service System(RISS), operated by the Korea Education & Research Information Service(KERIS). The key words used for the literature search were 'silica', 'crystalline silica', 'cristobalite', 'quartz' and 'tridymite'. A total number of 18 published documents with the information of crystalline silica level in air or bulk samples were selected and used to estimate retrospective exposures to crystalline silica. Weighted arithmetic mean(WAM) calculated across studies was summarized by industry type. Industries were classified according to Korea Standard Industrial Classification(KSIC) using information provided in the literature. Results: A total of 2,131 individual air sampling data measured from 1987 to 2012 were compiled. Compiled individual measurement data consisted of 827 respirable crystalline silica (RCS), 31 total crystalline silica(TCS), 24 crystalline silica(CS), 778 respirable dust(RD) and 471 total dust(TD). Most of RCS measurements(68.9%) were collected from 'cast of metals(KSIC 243)'. Comparing industry types, 'mining coal and lignite(KISC 051)' showed the highest WAM concentration of RCS, $0.14mg/m^3$, followed by $0.11mg/m^3$ of 'manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products(KSIC 239)', $0.108mg/m^3$ of 'manufacture of ceramic ware(KSIC 232)', $0.098mg/m^3$ of 'heavy construction(KSIC 412)' and $0.062mg/m^3$ of 'cast of metals(KSIC 243)'. In terms of crystalline silica contents in airborne dust, 'manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products(KSIC 239)' showed the highest value of 7.3%(wt/wt), followed by 6.8% of 'manufacture of ceramic ware(KSIC 232)', 5.8% of 'mining of iron ores(KSIC 061)', 4.9% of 'cast of metals(KSIC 243)' and 4.5% of 'heavy construction(KSIC 412)'. WAM concentrations of RCS had no consistent trends over time from 1994 ($0.26mg/m^3$) to 2012 ($0.12mg/m^3$). Conclusion: The data set related RCS exposure level by industries can be used to determine not only the possibility of retrospective exposure to RCS, but also to evaluate the level of quantitative retrospective exposure to RCS.

Quantification of Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Extreme Weather - Focused on Typhoon case - (기후변화에 따른 극한기상의 취약성 지수 정량화 연구 - 태풍을 중심으로 -)

  • Kim, Cheol-Hee;Nam, Ki-Pyo;Lee, Jong-Jae
    • Journal of Environmental Impact Assessment
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.190-203
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    • 2015
  • VRI(Vulnerability-Resilience Index), which is defined as a function of 3 variables: climate exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity, has been quantified for the case of Typhoon which is one of the extreme weathers that will become more serious as climate change proceeds. Because VRI is only indicating the relative importance of vulnerability between regions, the VRI quantification is prerequisite for the effective adaptation policy for climate in Korea. For this purpose, damage statistics such as amount of damage, occurrence frequency, and major damaged districts caused by Typhoon over the past 20 years, has been employed. According to the VRI definition, we first calculated VRI over every district in the case of both with and without weighting factors of climate exposure proxy variables. For the quantitative estimation of weighting factors, we calculated correlation coefficients (R) for each of the proxy variables against damage statistics of Typhoon, and then used R as weighting factors of proxy variables. The results without applying weighting factors indicates some biases between VRI and damage statistics in some regions, but most of biases has been improved by applying weighting factors. Finally, due to the relations between VRI and damage statistics, we are able to quantify VRI expressed as a unit of KRW, showing that VRI=1 is approximately corresponding to 500 hundred million KRW. This methodology of VRI quantification employed in this study, can be also practically applied to the number of future climate scenario studies over Korea.

A Development of Real Time Artificial Intelligence Warning System Linked Discharge and Water Quality (I) Application of Discharge-Water Quality Forecasting Model (유량과 수질을 연계한 실시간 인공지능 경보시스템 개발 (I) 유량-수질 예측모형의 적용)

  • Yeon, In-Sung;Ahn, Sang-Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.38 no.7 s.156
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    • pp.565-574
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    • 2005
  • It is used water quality data that was measured at Pyeongchanggang real time monitoring stations in Namhan river. These characteristics were analyzed with the water qualify of rainy and nonrainy periods. TOC (Total Organic Carbon) data of rainy periods has correlation with discharge and shows high values of mean, maximum, and standard deviation. DO (Dissolved Oxygen) value of rainy periods is lower than those of nonrainy periods. Input data of the water quality forecasting models that they were constructed by neural network and neuro-fuzzy was chosen as the reasonable data, and water qualify forecasting models were applied. LMNN, MDNN, and ANFIS models have achieved the highest overall accuracy of TOC data. LMNN (Levenberg-Marquardt Neural Network) and MDNN (MoDular Neural Network) model which are applied for DO forecasting shows better results than ANFIS (Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System). MDNN model shows the lowest estimation error when using daily time, which is qualitative data trained with quantitative data. The observation of discharge and water quality are effective at same point as well as same time for real time management. But there are some of real time water quality monitoring stations far from the T/M water stage. Pyeongchanggang station is one of them. So discharge on Pyeongchanggang station was calculated by developed runoff neural network model, and the water quality forecasting model is linked to the runoff forecasting model. That linked model shows the improvement of waterquality forecasting.

Estimation on Parameters of Water Quality in the Saemanguem Lake by WASP5 Model (WASP5 모형에 의한 새만금호의 수질 매개변수 추정)

  • Park, Young-Ki;Choi, Moon-Sul;Lee, Jang-Choon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.743-754
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    • 2000
  • Model parameters of the WASP5 applied to Saemanguem lake were estimated. The methodology is based on grouping water quality constituents and relevant parameters and successively estimating each group of parameters by a trial-and-error procedure. Chlorophyll-a, nitrogen cycles, phosphorus cycles, BOD and DO were simulated at the complexity level 4. The Saemangeum basin divided into a number of unit sub-watershed. And a water budget model analysis with 22 years from 1975 to 1996 year was examined. In this paper, input data at upstream boundaries of model was made to determine seasonally-averaged flow rate through water budget analysis. Calibration and verification of the model were used seasonal average of water quality measurements in 1997 and 1998 years. Grouping water quality constituents and associated parameters proved to be efficient in estimating a number of model parameters. From the results of model calibration and verification, it was found that quantitative evaluations of nonpoint source for organic matters are essential.

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Estimation of Post Evaluation Index of Natural Disaster Prevention Projects using Structure Equation Modeling (구조방정식모델을 이용한 자연재해예방사업의 사후 평가 지수 산정)

  • Heo, Bo Young;Song, Jai Woo;Yoon, Sei Eui;Lee, Seung Oh
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.34 no.6
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    • pp.1807-1814
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    • 2014
  • Natural disaster has been hard to prevent the occurrence of itself, thus in order to reduce the economic damages and loss casualties, it is important to be prepared in cases that the disasters should occur in advance. Interest of the related project to prevent various natural disasters has been grown along with an investment in Korea. Along with this movement, when investments related to natural disaster prevention projects were built on, the post evaluation that can verify the ripple effects of those investments on the community should be emerging as an essential task. For evaluating the effects of public investment projects such as natural disaster prevention projects in this study, the related researches would continue through qualitative analyses, for example, cost-benefit analysis. Even the qualitative analysis alone cannot fully explain the effects of those projects, the diverse methods of analyzing and evaluating those effects might not have been presented in those fields. For the post evaluation of natural disaster prevention projects through the qualitative analysis, this study derived subjects that had effects on the post evaluation of natural disaster prevention projects. Also, employing the structural equation modeling (SEM), the causation between post evaluation subjects and the effects of projects were quantitatively analyzed, and the weighting factors of evaluation items were calculated respectively. Based on these results, post evaluation index formula was proposed for the natural disaster prevention projects in Korea.