• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제13권6호
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• pp.982-989
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• 2010

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems such as ammunitions. Quantal-response data, following a binomial distribution at each sampling time, characterizes lifetimes of one-shot systems. Various quantal-response data of different sample sizes are simulated using lifetime data randomly sampled from assumed weibull distributions with different shape parameters but the identical scale parameter in this paper. Then, reliability estimation methods in open literature are applied to the simulated quantal-response data to estimate true reliability over time. Rankings in estimation accuracy for different sample sizes are determined using t-test of SSE. Furthermore, MSE at each time, including both bias and variance of estimated reliability metrics for each method are analyzed to investigate how much both bias and variance contribute the SSE. From the MSE analysis, MSE provides reliability estimation trend for each method. Parametric estimation method provides more accurate reliability estimation results than the other methods for most of sample sizes.

• 대한산업공학회지
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• 제36권4호
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• pp.212-218
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• 2010

This paper shows accuracy comparison results of reliability estimation methods for one-shot systems with respect to sample sizes. To compare accuracy in reliability estimation methods, quantal-response data, characterizing one-shot systems, were simulated using failure times of LED obtained through the accelerated life test, and then the true reliability over time was evaluated using the failure times. The simulated quantal-response data were used to estimate the true reliability through applying reliability estimation methods in open literature. Accuracy of each reliability estimation method was compared in terms of both SSE (Sum of Squared Error) and MSE (Mean Squared Error), and then estimation trend for each method is found. Feasible bounds which true reliability would exist within were estimated through applying the found trends to quantal-response data set of a real weapon system.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제33권12호
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• pp.1482-1487
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• 2009

In this study statistical analysis was performed for NDI(Non-Destructive Inspection) results of F100 engine front seal support assembly. NDI results can be statistically considered as Quantal Response Data. It is found that the suitable probability distribution to the failure data is normal distribution through MLE(Maximum Likelihood Estimation) of the Quantal Response Data. Moreover, Cumulative Distribution Function, failure rate function and B-Life are calculated on the supposed distribution.

• 대한기계학회논문집A
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• 제35권10호
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• pp.1291-1298
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• 2011

본 논문은 탄약, 미사일, 우주발사체 등과 같은 일회성(one-shot) 시스템의 가부반응데이터를 이용하여 신뢰도를 추정하는 새로운 방법을 제안한다. 제안한 방법은 모수 추정법을 기반으로 한다. 제안한 방법은 가부반응 데이터의 시간에 따른 고장 비율 감소를 고려하였으며 모수 추정법의 문제점을 극복할 수 있다. 기존 문헌에 공개된 7 가지 추정방법들과 제안한 방법과의 정확성을 비교하여 제안한 방법을 검증하였다. 정확성 비교 시, 다양한 샘플 수 변화를 고려하여 신뢰도 추정결과에 대한 SSE를 이용하였다. 정확성 비교 결과, 제안한 방법은 다른 방법에 비해 정확성이 높은 신뢰도 추정결과를 제공하였다.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• 제28권5호
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• pp.1021-1026
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• 2017

화학, 제약, 식품 등 여러 분야에서 활용되는 혼합물 실험은 반응변수가 설명변수들의 절대량이 아닌 상대적인 혼합비율에 의해 영향을 받고 구조상 공선성이 존재하게 되는 성질이 있으며 양적인 반응변수들에 대한 실험이 많아 대부분 정규분포를 가정하고 선형모형을 적용하여 분석하고 있다. 이 논문에서는 반응변수가 계수형인 혼합물 실험의 사례로 Chen 등(1996)에 소개된 종양 억제 효과에 대한 실험에 나타난 지방, 탄수화물, 섬유질과 같은 식이요법 관련 혼합물 성분들과 종양 발현 여부인 계수형 방응변수를 갖는 자료를 대상으로 셰페의 2차 다항모형과 성분들간의 비선형적 관계를 보완하기 위해 대안으로 제시된 베커의 수정 모형들, 그리고 공선성을 완화하기 위해 제시된 Akay와 Tez(2011)의 성분비 변환 모형을 설명변수들의 선형결합으로 활용하여 설정한 로지스틱회귀모형들을 분류 정확도 기준을 적용하여 비교하고 결과를 설명하였다.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제2권2호
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• pp.243-248
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• 1995

The problem of optimal design for a nonparametric regression with binary data is considered. The aim of the statistical analysis is the estimation of a quantal response surface in two dimensions. Bias, variance and IMSE of kernel estimates are derived. The optimal design density with respect to asymptotic IMSE is constructed.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제16권1호
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• pp.32-40
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• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of sampling points on accuracy of storage reliability estimation for one-shot systems by assuming a weibull distribution as a storage reliability distribution. Also propose method for determining of sampling points for increase the accuracy of reliability estimation. Methods: Weibull distribution was divided into three sections for confirming the possible to estimate the parameters of the weibull distribution only some section's sample. Generate quantal response data for failure data. And performed parameter estimation with quantal response data. Results: If reduce sample point interval of 1 section, increase the accuracy of reliability estimation although sampling only section 1. Even reduce total number of sampling point, reducing sampling time interval of the 1 zone improve the accuracy of reliability estimation. Conclusion: Method to increase the accuracy of reliability estimation is increasing number of sampling and the sampling points. But apply this method to One-shot system is difficult because test cost of one-shot system is expensive. So propose method of accuracy of storage reliability estimation of one-shot system by adjustment of the sampling point. And by dividing the section it could reduce the total sampling point.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제8권3호
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• pp.581-588
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• 2001

The $ED_{100p}$ is that value of the dose associated with 100p% response rate in the analysis of quantal response data. Brand, Pinnock, and Jackson (1973) studied the confidence bands of $ED_{100p}$ obtained by solving extremal values algebraically on the ellipsoid confidence region of the parameters in the simple logistic regression model. In this paper, we develope and illustrate a simpler method for obtaining confidence bands for $ED_{100p}$ based on the rectangular confidence region of parameters.

• 한국군사과학기술학회지
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• 제15권4호
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• pp.435-441
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• 2012

This paper provides simulation-based results of effect analysis of sample size and sampling periods on accuracy of reliability estimation methods using multiple comparisons with analysis of variance. Sum of squared errors in estimated reliability measures were evaluated through applying seven estimation methods for one-shot systems to simulated quantal-response data. Analysis of variance was implemented to investigate change in these errors according to variations of sample size and sampling periods for each estimation method, and then the effect analysis on accuracy in reliability estimation was performed using multiple comparisons based on sample size and sampling periods. An efficient way to allocate both sample size and sampling periods for reliability estimation tests of one-shot systems is proposed in this paper from the effect analysis results.