• Title/Summary/Keyword: Qualitative risk assessment

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Comparison and Analysis on Risk Assessment Models of Coastal Waters considering Human Factors (인적요인을 고려한 연안해역 위험도 평가모델 비교·분석)

  • Kim, In-Chul;An, Kwang
    • Journal of Navigation and Port Research
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    • v.40 no.1
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    • pp.27-34
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    • 2016
  • For the prevention of marine casualties, international bodies have mainly focused on strengthening ship's stability and design, maritime education and training, and improving maritime traffic environment. Statistics analysis on marine casualties showed that most of casualties occurred in coastal waters, especially by human elements. In order to review the conformity of existing prevention measures with the result of the statistics analysis, the IMO's SHELL model was applied to the established measures. As a result, ergonomic approaches were needed for the prevention of human errors in coastal waters, so that the priority should be given to the interface between ship's operator and navigational environment. For this study, Rasmussen's SRK pyramid, which showed decision making mechanism of human, and the US Coast Guard's investigation manual on marine casualties concerning the collapse of safe maritime transportation system were reviewed, and the merits and demerits within the risk assessment tools such as IWRAP, PAWSA, ES model, PARK model, and NURI model were also studied. Although the effectiveness of the existing risk assessment models was proved in ports and approaching channels, it is concluded that the need of new models for converting Korean seafarers' qualitative risk to quantitative risk was proposed so as to print hazard maps which make seafarers instinctively recognize comparative hazard levels of coastal waters.

A Study on Analysis of Personal Information Risk Using Importance-Performance Analysis (IPA를 이용한 개인정보 위험도 분석 연구)

  • Jeong, Su-Jin;Kim, In-Seok
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.6
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    • pp.267-273
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    • 2015
  • For newly incoming technologies owing to the advancements in information and communications technology, the new form of information occurs due to the combination form of personal information. In turn, personal information which is combination with existing personal information is on the increase. It is difficult to equalize the method in order to analysis the degree of risk for personal information because it is qualitative method which is defined on the current Personal Information Protection Law. This dissertation presents the model to assess the degree of risk by using the IPA(Importance-Performance Analysis) after measuring the importance and the weighted value for the personal information based on the existing the method of risk assessment. Through the model suggested in this dissertation, the subjective judgement can be excluded, the combination of personal information can be assessed and the standard criteria which is used as the objective indicators from the quantitative degree of risk can be suggested.

A Study on the Development of Driving Risk Assessment Model for Autonomous Vehicles Using Fuzzy-AHP (퍼지 AHP를 이용한 자율주행차량의 운행 위험도 평가 모델 개발 연구)

  • Siwon Kim;Jaekyung Kwon;Jaeseong Hwang;Sangsoo Lee;Choul ki Lee
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.192-207
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    • 2023
  • Commercialization of level-4 (Lv.4) autonomous driving applications requires the definition of a safe road environment under which autonomous vehicles can operate safely. Thus, a risk assessment model is required to determine whether the operation of autonomous vehicles can provide safety to is sufficiently prepared for future real-life traffic problems. Although the risk factors of autonomous vehicles were selected and graded, the decision-making method was applied as qualitative data using a survey of experts in the field of autonomous driving due to the cause of the accident and difficulty in obtaining autonomous driving data. The fuzzy linguistic representation of decision-makers and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which converts uncertainty into quantitative figures, were implemented to compensate for the AHP shortcomings of the multi-standard decision-making technique. Through the process of deriving the weights of the upper and lower attributes, the road alignment, which is a physical infrastructure, was analyzed as the most important risk factor in the operation risk of autonomous vehicles. In addition, the operation risk of autonomous vehicles was derived through the example of the risk of operating autonomous vehicles for the 5 areas to be evaluated.

Development of a Fire Human Reliability Analysis Procedure for Full Power Operation of the Korean Nuclear Power Plants (국내 전출력 원전 적용 화재 인간신뢰도분석 절차 개발)

  • Choi, Sun Yeong;Kang, Dae Il
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.35 no.1
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    • pp.87-96
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    • 2020
  • The purpose of this paper is to develop a fire HRA (Human Reliability Analysis) procedure for full power operation of domestic NPPs (Nuclear Power Plants). For the development of fire HRA procedure, the recent research results of NUREG-1921 in an effort to meet the requirements of the ASME/ANS PRA Standard were reviewed. The K-HRA method, a standard method for HRA of a domestic level 1 PSA (Probabilistic Safety Assessment) and fire related procedures in domestic NPPs were reviewed. Based on the review, a procedure for the fire HRA required for a domestic fire PSA based on the K-HRA method was developed. To this end, HRA issues such as new operator actions required in the event of a fire and complexity of fire situations were considered. Based on the four kinds of HFE (Human Failure Event) developed for a fire HRA in this research, a qualitative analysis such as feasibility evaluation was suggested. And also a quantitative analysis process which consists of screening analysis and detailed analysis was proposed. For the qualitative analysis, a screening analysis by NUREG-1921 was used. In this research, the screening criteria for the screening analysis was modified to reduce vague description and to reflect recent experimental results. For a detailed analysis, the K-HRA method and scoping analysis by NUREG-1921 were adopted. To apply K-HRA to fire HRA for quantification, efforts to modify PSFs (Performance Shaping Factors) of K-HRA to reflect fire situation and effects were made. For example, an absence of STA (Shift Technical Advisor) to command a fire brigade at a fire area is considered and the absence time should be reflected for a HEP (Human Error Probability) quantification. Based on the fire HRA procedure developed in this paper, a case study for HEP quantification such as a screening analysis and detailed analysis with the modified K-HRA was performed. It is expected that the HRA procedure suggested in this paper will be utilized for fire PSA for domestic NPPs as it is the first attempt to establish an HRA process considering fire effects.

Development of Cyber Security Assessment Methodology for the Instrumentation & Control Systems in Nuclear Power Plants (원전 계측제어시스템에 대한 사이버보안성 평가 방법론 개발)

  • Kang, Young-Doo;Chong, Kil-To
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.11 no.9
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    • pp.3451-3457
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    • 2010
  • Cyber security assessment is the process of determining how effectively an entity being assessed meets specific cyber security objectives. Cyber security assessment helps to measure the degree of confidence one has and to identify that the managerial, technical and operational measures work as intended to protect the I&C systems and the information it processes. Recently, needs for cyber security on digitalized nuclear I&C systems are increased. However the overall cyber security program, including cyber security assessment, is not established on those systems. This paper presents the methodology of cyber security assessment which is appropriate for nuclear I&C systems. This methodology provides the qualitative assessments that may formulate recommendations to bridge the security risk gap through the incorporated criteria. This methodology may be useful to the nuclear organizations for assessing the weakness and strength of cyber security on nuclear I&C systems. It may be useful as an index to the developers, auditors, and regulators for reviewing the managerial, operational and technical cyber security controls, also.

Qualitative Risk Assessment of Hydrogen Compression Reforming Process (수소 압축 개질공정의 정성적 위험성 평가)

  • SHIN, DANBEE;SEO, DOOHYOUN;KIM, TAEHUN;RHIE, KWANGWON;LEE, DONGMIN;KIM, HYOUNGI;HONG, SEONGCHUL
    • Transactions of the Korean hydrogen and new energy society
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    • v.33 no.1
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    • pp.61-66
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    • 2022
  • In order to introduce the hydrogen economy and increase supply, research in the field of hydrogen production is being actively conducted. Among the hydrogen production methods, the method of steam reforming from natural gas and producing it currently accounts for about 50% of the global hydrogen production. In the method of steam reforming process, hydrogen can be produced by adding a reformer to an existing natural gas supply pipe. Because of these advantages, it is evaluated as a realistic production method at present in Korea, where the city gas supply chain is well established. But there is concern in that it is highly likely to be installed in downtown areas and residential spaces. In this study, the risk of the process of steam reforming to produce hydrogen was reviewed.

Probabilistic Forecasting of Seasonal Inflow to Reservoir (계절별 저수지 유입량의 확률예측)

  • Kang, Jaewon
    • Journal of Environmental Science International
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    • v.22 no.8
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    • pp.965-977
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    • 2013
  • Reliable long-term streamflow forecasting is invaluable for water resource planning and management which allocates water supply according to the demand of water users. It is necessary to get probabilistic forecasts to establish risk-based reservoir operation policies. Probabilistic forecasts may be useful for the users who assess and manage risks according to decision-making responding forecasting results. Probabilistic forecasting of seasonal inflow to Andong dam is performed and assessed using selected predictors from sea surface temperature and 500 hPa geopotential height data. Categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis, and probability forecast by conditional probability density function are used to forecast seasonal inflow. Kernel density function is used in categorical probability forecast by Piechota's method and probability forecast by conditional probability density function. The results of categorical probability forecasts are assessed by Brier skill score. The assessment reveals that the categorical probability forecasts are better than the reference forecasts. The results of forecasts using conditional probability density function are assessed by qualitative approach and transformed categorical probability forecasts. The assessment of the forecasts which are transformed to categorical probability forecasts shows that the results of the forecasts by conditional probability density function are much better than those of the forecasts by Piechota's method and logistic regression analysis except for winter season data.

A Study of Software Hazard Analysis for Safety Critical Function in Military Aircraft

  • Oh, Hung-Jae;Hong, Jin-Pyo
    • Journal of IKEEE
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    • v.16 no.2
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    • pp.145-152
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    • 2012
  • This paper is the Software Hazard Analysis (SWHA) which will study the managerial process and the technical methode and techniques inherent in the performance of software safety task within the Military Aircraft System Safety program. This SWHA identifies potential hazardous effects on the software intensive systems and provides a comprehensive and qualitative assessment of the software safety. The purpose of this paper is to identify safety critical functions of software in Military A/C. The identified software hazards associated with the design or function will be evaluated for risks and operational constraint to further improve the software design requirement, analysis and testing efforts for safety critical software. This common SWHA, the first time analysis in KOREA, was review all avionics OFP(Operational Flight Program), and focus only on software segments which are safety critical. This paper provides a important understanding between the customer and developer as to how the software safety for the Military A/C will be accomplished. It will also provide the current best solution which may as one consider the necessary step in establishing a credible and cost-effective software safety program.

A systematic review of domestic oral health care programs for elementary school children (초등학생 대상의 국내 구강건강관리 프로그램에 대한 체계적 문헌고찰)

  • Yeo, An-Na;Lee, Su-Young
    • Journal of Korean society of Dental Hygiene
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    • v.20 no.3
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    • pp.257-268
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    • 2020
  • Objectives: This purpose of this study was to examine the trends in interventional research and analyze the contents and results of intervention through a systematic literature review of the domestic research literature, suggesting the effect of an oral care program on elementary school students. Methods: A total of 262 articles were retrieved initially, and the duplicate articles were then removed, excluded after screening titles, abstracts, and full-text articles. Finally, a total of 16 papers were used in the review. Results: The study included 9 articles with the nonequivalent control group pretest-posttest design and 7 with the one-group pretest-posttest design. All articles were of non-randomized studies. The most common index of the interventional effect was dental plaque. Further, oral health behaviors and knowledge, perception, self-efficacy, and DMFT index were common indices. In the quality assessment, in the "blinding of outcome assessment" among six items of ROBANS, 12 studies showed a high risk of bias. Conclusions: In order to develop an interventional oral health care program for elementary school students and evaluate the effectiveness, a strict research design and qualitative improvement of research reports are required, and continuous research should be conducted to develop a systematic protocol.

The Belt and Road Initiative in Lebanon: A Promising Initiative in a Complex Society

  • AL SHAHER, Shaher;ZREIK, Mohamad
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.151-158
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    • 2022
  • The study aims to investigate Lebanese-Chinese relations within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative. Lebanon formally joined the effort in 2017; this paper emphasizes Lebanon's geostrategic importance. The paper presents an assessment of the investment risks in Lebanon, which is considered an economically unstable country with a volatile security situation, with many internal and external political hurdles. The paper refers to the obstacles and challenges that the Chinese investor may face in Lebanese society. The study employs qualitative descriptive analysis to address the status of Chinese investment in Lebanon and the consequences of this partnership; the paper examines previous research related to the Belt and Road Initiative and the Lebanese political, security, and economic situation literature. Due to the deteriorating security situation, external intervention, and the economic crisis, the results reveal that Lebanon is not a top investment priority for China, which is a big impediment to China entering into economic cooperation with Lebanon. The findings of this study suggest that the Lebanese government should adopt an anti-corruption policy to build confidence for the Chinese investor, reduce unnecessary public spending, and hold a national dialogue to build confidence among the Lebanese parties.